Through Rose [Bowl] Colored Glasses: Purdue
Purdue rose from the dead when Joe Tiller took over in 1997 (prior to that 9-3 campaign, Purdue hadn't won more than half their games since 1984. They even parlayed an 8-3 year into a Rose Bowl a few years later. But after the epic 2004 contest with the Badgers in West Lafayette, it was all down hill for the Boilermakers. It's true, they managed 8-win seasons in '06 and '07, but the magic was gone. Tiller finally bailed out last season (his worst at Purdue), to make room for Danny Hope, like Bielema, a hand-picked successor to the coach who put Purdue football back on the map. On to the review . . .
(1) Danny brings new Hope? What's the word on his view of things? More basketball on grass? Needed infusion of new blood, or mistaken, unimaginative inside hire?
Boiled Sports: First, well done on the obligatory “Hope” pun – we can’t help but do this all the time, too. As for Danny, our early thoughts were that it was a marginal hire, more evidence of the program not thinking big, etc. But we’ve gotten to know more about him and he’s intense. He’s demanding. He expects a lot and makes no excuses. We’ve sort of fallen in love with Danny. He’s dreamy. Well, okay, maybe not that great… but we’re impressed thus far. The guy has the right approach, in our opinion, and has many of us excited about a season that really in any other era would be more dreaded than anticipated.
As for what to expect from Coach Hope, it doesn’t sound like he wants to run the ball any more than he has to. We would expect some “pass to set up the run” looks but with an inexperienced receiving corps, he’ll have no choice but to expect a lot out of the running game, too. Balance will be key – and elusive.
H&R: I view it as a needed infusion of energy. One of the biggest unofficial stories around the program the last few years is that Tiller grew tired of all the legwork needed in recruiting. Things got a little soft, and last year’s 4-8 season was the result. Hope gives us a new enthusiasm that the players are picking up on. In my interview with The Daily Gopher I talked about the idea of O.N.E. (Opportunity Now for Everyone) and how the entire team is on board for it. Coach Hope has this team believing it can compete in any game, something we lacked in recent years.
(2) The offense lends itself to big numbers for the quarterback, but Kory Sheets was the bigger star recently: are the faithful excited about Jaycen Taylor, or hoping for unexpectedly big things out of Joey Elliot? Or will one of the younguns force his way in to the starting spot under center?
H&R: A lot of people are comparing Elliott to coach Tiller’s first quarterback, Billy Dicken. Dicken also had little experience and was overcoming a shoulder injury, yet he went on to be an all-Big Ten player in 1997. Elliott has similar skills and background, so who knows. Taylor will likely split the running game with Ralph Bolden, who had a spectacular spring, Dan Dierking, and incoming freshman Al-Terek McBurse. I doubt any of them will put up the numbers Sheets put up, but combined they may be better.
Boiled Sports: You’ll surely see Caleb TerBush gets some snaps under center this season, and don’t be shocked to see some tricks and surprise formats. This offense needs to be creative this season and what better way than to do some kooky stuff? I’d say the faithful are indeed excited about Jaycen Taylor being back. Sure, he tore up his knee, but assuming he’s healthy – which it appears he is – he’s a huge asset to have in that backfield. But, again, Elliott is going to need to keep defenses honest to avoid them stacking the line and pummeling the RB corps.
The buzz is good about Elliott and having a senior leader in there who is a game manager isn’t the worst thing for a team like this.
(3) It feels like for all the high octane, Purdue's spread struggles in the redzone. Is this true, and if so, what is the fix (that you hope to see this season)?
Boiled Sports: That’s probably a fair impression to have, especially in the past year or two. For some inexplicable reason Curtis Painter was never a lock in the red zone the way some of his predecessors were (Orton and Brees, for example, made you feel pretty sure you were getting in there). That said, though, we don’t worry about the spread not being reliable in the red zone – we worry more about the inexperienced players being able to step it up there.
The fix, if there is one, is that boring answer of balance. Everyone likes to watch a passing, exciting team, but for this team to succeed at all, it will need strong running performances in multiple looks coupled with accurate short passes from Elliott and the occasional deep ball. In the red zone, Elliott will need to be able to thread the needle with some zip and also be able to make the decisions needed in D1 college football. Sounds obvious but he’s yet to be relied on to do that.
H&R: My hope is that we have games where we don’t completely abandon the running game. The most frustrating drive I remember seeing came at Hawaii in 2006. We got the ball at the 10 yard line and twice had to overcome 15 yard penalties, but we ended up losing the ball when Painter pitched it off a fullback’s thigh on a first and goal from the two. We basically drove 118 yards and got nothing because we got too fancy instead of powering the ball ahead. I look to see more of that this year, as Frank Halliburton is a dedicated fullback with experience. (4) A few years ago it felt like the Boilermakers rattled off dangerous wide receivers as often as big name quarterbacks; is there anyone who fits that bill this season?H&R: That is the biggest question facing our offense. Keith Smith could be an all-Big Ten talent, but only Aaron Valentin has any other significant playing time. The majority of Valentin’s receiving yards came on one play against Indiana last season. WE have several of our Florida freshmen coming in who will compete for playing time at receiver, as well as converted DB’s Royce Adams and Tommie Thomas. Your guess is as good as mine as to who will actually step up.Boiled Sports: Keith Carlos, Eric Williams and Gary Bush. Boilermaker fans should get to know those names. We’re not sure they’ll be the kinds of wide receivers you’re referring to but they should be impact guys.
(5) 26 points seems like the magic number for Purdue against Wisconsin (and most other teams, too, I think). Purdue is 5-0 against the Alvarez era Badgers -- yes, history began in 1990 as far as this Badger fan is concerned ;-) -- and with the notable exceptions of the Michigan and Northwestern games, the defense looked surprisingly solid last season. Can the Boilermakers win a low-scoring game in Madison this season?
Boiled Sports: Assume you mean 5-0 when scoring 26 points or more [ed.: actually, I screwed that all up: in all five wins Purdue scored 26 or more, but they were actually 5-1-1 when scoring 26 or more, and 0-7 when scoring fewer than 26]. Which seems like a reasonable assumption against most teams – 26 points is a lot and any decent defense should be able to hold that more often than not. In fact, if the Boilermakers score 26 a game this year, we’ll be expecting a good bowl game. But as to your question, against the Badgers, yes, we think it’s possible that Purdue could win a close, low-scoring affair in Madison. Possible, but not likely. Let’s put it this way – it needs to be a low-scoring, defensive affair if Purdue hopes to win this game at all. We’re of the opinion that Wisconsin is on a downward trend under Bielema, but their defense usually brings the pain and Camp Randall is a tough place to win. Of course, the Boilers last two wins over the Badgers were in Madison so, really, who the hell knows?
H&R: Absolutely! I think for the first time in years we will be a much more run-oriented team. As a result, we will have longer drives and keep our improving offense rested. I am encouraged that aside from the games you mentioned and the embarrassing performance against the run at Notre Dame, the defense wasn’t that bad. It did a lot of bending without breaking against a very good Oregon team. Against Ohio State a fantastic defensive performance was wasted by no offense and one special teams mistake.
(6) The 4-8 record last year hides several pretty darned good games against very good teams (Oregon, Penn State, and road games at Ohio State and Iowa). Was the team just always one play away, or were those teams content to run out the clock (clearly not Oregon, who needed last minute heroics, if I recall correctly). Do you take anything away from that heading into this season (Steele always points out close wins and losses in his previews, I think).
Boiled Sports: That’s a nice thing to say about our boys, but those games you mentioned were an 0-4 effort for the Boilermakers, no matter how close they might have been. They were quite frustrating, actually, because as good as those teams were, Purdue was in all of those games, as you noted. And if Curtis Painter had anywhere NEAR the season he was expected to have, Joe Tiller’s final year goes very differently. The defense came to play last year and has only gotten better, so we’re of course hopeful that the offense can cobble something together and make it an exciting year, where maybe a couple of those close ones and solid defensive efforts actually go our way.
H&R: The Oregon game really set the tone. There were a handful of plays in that game that made a huge difference. If we hold on to win, we would finally have gotten a win over a ranked opponent and it would have given us a ton of momentum. We had Brandon King get an interception with nothing but green grass in front of him only to be chased down from behind. We had to settle for a field goal on that drive. Before halftime, all we needed to do was run out the clock, but Painter threw an awful interception that led to a field goal, making it 20-6 at the half. We also gave up a punt return for a TD and got too conservative in settling for a long field goal to end regulation. We had strong swirling winds that day, but instead of moving closer for a game winner we settled for a 45-yarder. I think if we get that game and Painter doesn’t get hurt against Minnesota we would have had at least 3 more wins.
(7) The epic 2004 game (you know the one) ended up being the high-water mark for both teams this decade (at least as far as national rankings go), but your boys fell a little harder. What's it going to take for Purdue to start challenging the top of the conference again?
H&R: Time. I am encouraged by the types of players Hope is bringing in on the recruiting trail. The overall talent level will be much better in two years. I honestly don’t think we’re that far from the rest of the Big Ten right now. I think outside of Penn State and Ohio State (and we don’t play Penn State this year) you have a conference full of even teams. Someone can make a big jump that way, so why not us?
Boiled Sports: We’ve discussed among ourselves and on our podcast (and probably other places) the fact that the 2004 Wisconsin game was truly the tipping point for Purdue football. It was Tiller’s best chance at climbing the mountain: no early stumbles, favorable scheduling (toughest games at home), established big-game QB in Orton, and so forth. The 5-0 start, College Gameday in West Lafayette, a night game on national TV with actual national title chase implications and the #5 ranking in the nation. And then a ten point lead in the fourth quarter. Then The Fumble happened and the program was never the same. And we’re not being melodramatic – that was it. The team went into a death spiral, losing their next four games (all of which should have been wins) and Tiller folded. He was a beaten man after that and never seemed to have the same drive and “Cowboy Joe” approach that had gotten them to that point.
Why am I rehashing all of that? Because that’s what we’re up against. The morning of October 16, 2004 was likely the apex of Purdue football as we know it with potential everywhere we looked. And now the challenge is to begin climbing back to where that’s possible. The climb should have begun long ago, but it didn’t and Tiller coasted another four seasons. That seems to have ended now, attitude-wise, and we think Coach Hope has us on the right track. That’s the first step. Next is believing they can compete up there again and there’s no reason to think they can’t at least scare some big guys this year. Recruiting will be critical, especially when you need to get a few 2-3 stars who blossom, catch some breaks, etc. Can it happen? Sure. Will it? Hard to say. At the start of 1997, the concept of being ranked in the top 5 was a pipe dream none of us would dare to openly discuss. And within 7 years, there it was.
(8) The perception is that Purdue is so much a basketball school that you guys have played basketball on grass since 1997; what's something people should know, but don't, about your football program?
Boiled Sports: Well, for one thing, nobody associated with Purdue football has called it “basketball on grass” in about a decade. That was something Tiller said in his earliest days, when discussing the switch in styles that he was unleashing on the rest of the plodding Big Ten. The basketball on grass approach peaked during the Drew Brees years, which ended after the 2000 season. We don’t mind that people perceive the Boilers offense as an exciting thing – but it’s not really basketball on grass anymore. It’s just a spread, like a lot of teams play.
For another thing, while Purdue may be perceived by some as a basketball school, Ross-Ade Stadium is the home of the “Cradle of Quarterbacks.”
H&R: It’s the cradle of quarterbacks, baby! I love basketball first, but Mike Phipps, Bob Griese, Gary Danielson, Len Dawson, Drew Brees, Mark Herrmann, Jim Everett, and Kyle Orton have all made names for themselves at Ross-Ade Stadium.
Finally, does anyone really care about that darn drum?
H&R: I love the drum! When I was a student, they had the 80th anniversary of the drum. One of the original members of the drum crew was still alive and came back for the halftime ceremony. The dude had to be at least 95, yet he still was able to jump and hit the drum. We joked he would be partying at Harry’s after the game. That, and seeing Neil Armstrong hit the drum is very cool.
Boiled Sports: You know, I don’t know why everyone takes shots at the drum, quite frankly. This is like me saying, “Hey, what’s the deal with that tuba in the Wisconsin band?” You’d say, “In the band? What are you talking about? What’s that got to do with football?” And I’d say, “Oh, nothing.” And you’d say, “Yeah…FACE!”
Seriously, the drum is a part of the marching band. If that’s the best thing fans of opponents can come up with to mock, it’s time to hang ‘em up.
Sounds like it's 1-1 in the cares about the drum question; in any case, perhaps it's time to hang up this preview of the Cradle of Quarterbacks, pre-season, 2009.
Media Days: Coach Speak
(2) The live chat UW set up with Coach Bielema today was what one would expect: thin on substance. Nonetheless, I think he gave two comments we can learn from: (a) expect a lot of Lance Kendricks and Garrett Graham together (Q: "I thought Garrett Graham was kind of a breakout player last year. Can you give us one or two that you think might 'breakout' this season?" A: "I believe one offensive guy is Lance Kendricks. We really felt good about him last year going into the MSU game, but unfortunately broke his leg."); and (b) JJ Watt will play some tackle depending on the game situation (I predict passing downs) (Q: "If the opener were tomorrow, who would you anticipate being the starting front four defensivlely" You mentioned JJ Watt & I've read you like his cersatility, but will he start inside?" A: "I can name our top six: Schofield [DE], Watt, Moore [DT, some DE], Stehle [DT], Kelly [DE], and Butrym [DT]. It would probably be some combination of those four. J.J. is one of our d-lineman who can play inside or outside [Moore is the other] depending on game plan and the type of offense we are going against.")
Ok, so neither of these is earth shattering. I think everyone expects a lot of 2-tight end sets (I've only written about it somewhere in the neighborhood of 1000 times). But I was wondering about Watt. Originally I thought of him as an undersized tackle, but he's listed on the two-deep as a starting end. I think this clarifies that. He is probably the starting end (opposite Schofield), but may move inside from time to time. I'm guessing passing downs because guys like Kelly, Nzegwu, and Mains are pass-rush specialists (they have to be given their size). So you throw them in to rush the quarterback, but keep Watt in on the play as a solid penetrating tackle.
Pretty much the same story out of the opening address to the media today (video embedded below): three solid tight ends (with Turner playing some fullback, too); Kendricks looking to fill Beckum's H-back role, and effectively the same rundown on the defensive line. Combining the statement he made in the chat and the statement he made to the media, it's looking like: Watt, Moore (he pegged him as inside), Stehle, and Schofield.
Last thing: Bielema thinks the Badgers' success at home has hindered high profile home-and-home scheduling. Wouldn't surprise me. Generally scheduling is a tough thing to do, and our home record doesn't look too appealing to opposing teams with resumes similar to ours.
Don't have the interviews with Graham, McFadden, or Schofield up on the BTN yet, so I'm in the dark on those.
2009 Badger Football Post-Spring Preview
I'm not saying we'll have a great team, but I think we'll have a pretty darned solid record and a nice bowl game to show for it.
Let’s just get it out of the way: starting quarterback Dustin Sherer (sr.). No, he’s not Brooks Bollinger, but it is what it is. Here’s the upside: he was good enough to beat Michigan State (even though we didn’t), Illinois, Indiana, Minnesota and Cal Poly (though our defense did what they could to surrender that one, too). Iowa wasn’t his fault (and it was his first collegiate start). He’s going to be even better this year. Great? No, but solid. That’s what we need, not some red-shirt freshman with a wobbly arm. And especially not with the other weapons on our offense.
If Sherer is decent, this offense could be spectacular. Clay (so.) and Brown (jr.) are a solid 1-2 combo. Clay will get more carries, but probably not that many more (I’m guessing 60/40) -- Brown is the better all-around back because of his blocking and hands in the passing game). Playing in a two-tight end set, with potential All-American Graham (sr.) and Kendricks (jr.), or Turner (jr.) (playing a hybrid fullback role from the TE spot), we’re going to see versatility Chryst hasn’t had to work with in a couple of years. Add to that Isaac Anderson (jr.) and Nick Toon (so.) starting at receiver, with David Gilreath (jr.) and Kyle Jefferson (jr.) adding depth and a solid 3-WR set. That’s a pretty stacked set of skill players by Badger standards.
With the departure of three starters and everything on offense relying on them, it’s reasonable to question how good the line will be? Pretty good. Carimi (jr.) is the leader, at left tackle, with a very capable and athletic Moffitt (jr.) at center. At right tackle Josh Oglesby (so.) needs to get and stay mean, but brings a load to move the right side of the line. Converted tackle Bscherer (jr.) and game-tested Nagy (jr.) will do well at the guard spots. Oglesby, Bsherer, and Nagy are all “new” starters, but all have significant playing experience as back-ups and starting several games in place of injured guys ahead of them. This line may not be all world, but it will be solid. The biggest area of concern is depth at guard. The Badgers just don’t have a stable of guards. One of the lesser problems to have, but one that an injury or two could really exacerbate.
In short, look for a capable and balanced Badger offense. Sherer won’t be asked to sling the ball all over the place, but he will throw more than the Badgers did last season, and with the skill the Badgers have around him, the Cardinal and White should be prolific.
That’s the good news.
With all the talk about who the starting quarterback should be, the defensive front seven hasn’t gotten the attention critics should give it. One starter returns to his position from last season. One.
Who knows what the defense will look like this season? Maybe a change of blood will mean the end of late-game struggles? (See, e.g., Florida State ‘09, Minnesota ’08, MSU ’08, OSU ’08, Michigan ’08, Fresno State ’08, Minnesota ’07, Michigan ’07, OSU ’07, and MSU ’07.) That’s the hope. In the mean time, who’s doing what for the new front 7? Schofield (sr.) is the [only] returning starter (DE) and got better and better as last year wore on. While no star, he’s good enough. At the other end, Watt (so.) turned heads throughout his mandatory (transfer) red-shirt year and continued doing so throughout the spring. There’s reason to be excited about him. Backing them up are two guys who show lots of promise in the passing game, but are pretty light to defend the run, Nzegwu (so., 245 lbs.), and Kelly (fr., 240 lbs.). The middle is a source of real concern. Dan Moore (sr.) is a solid player, but is a more natural end converted to tackle. Stehle (sr.) has yet to establish himself as a real presence inside, even with playing time last year. Backing them up are Butrym (so.) who has potential, but is young and not big (280 lbs.), and Cascone (sr.). In passing downs we may see Watt move inside with Nzegwu or Kelly taking his spot on the end.
Moving to the linebackers, talk about a lack of depth. McFadden (sr.) is a returning starter, but moves back outside (his more natural position). Culmer St. Jean (jr.) finally takes the middle position he’s been groomed for over the last two years. And Sorensen (jr.) is the other outside linebacker. McFadden and St. Jean should be fine, maybe even pretty good. Sorensen hasn’t shown up much, despite plenty of playing time and experience. And the two-deep? Freshman and sophomores with no real experience. All the guys on the list have gotten some favorable comments from their peers and coaches, but favorable comments don’t read offenses, shed blocks, and make tackles.
So, real questions up front for the Badgers. If I were an opponent, I’d game plan running the ball right at us. The good news on defense is the secondary.
Aaron Henry (so.) is back at one corner, and looks like his knee has finally healed up. He will get the opposition’s better receiver. Brinkley (jr.) and Devin Smith (so.) both look decent at the other corner (Brinkley will probably start), with Fenelus (so.) not far behind. At safety, after toying with a left/right idea (which held for the linebackers), the coaching staff is back with a strong/free set. Given the personnel, that makes sense. Valai (jr.) is purely a strong safety and Maragos (sr.) and Carter (sr.) are free-types and pretty good (Carter should press Maragos for the starting spot). Pleasant (sr.) could go either way, but has spent most of his career in Madison at strong safety, and is a pretty good option backing up Valai (or pressing him to start). These guys won’t all be pros (maybe a couple will), but they make up a solid Big Ten secondary.
In the kicking game, Welch (so., PK) and Nortman (so., punter) will continue to be fine. The Badgers need more out of Gilreath in the return game, and need to continue to improve their coverage.
In summary, expect the Badgers to play high scoring games this season. Despite all the talk about the quarterback situation, the offense should be very good, but don’t be surprised to see the defense give up long, sustained drives against teams running the ball up the gut.
And as for a game-by-game prediction?
Northern Illinois: Win
Fresno State: Win (but closer than it should be unless we can focus entirely on stopping the run)
Wofford: Win (augh)
Michigan State: Win (because it’s at home; expect a close fight)
@ Minnesota: Loss (they return almost everybody, we’ve struggled with them for two years, and it’s a huge home game for them in their new place)
@ Ohio State: Loss (close, but Pryor will do what he has to against our defense)
Iowa: Win (screw them!)
Purdue: Win (they just aren’t very good)
@ Indiana: Win (still Indiana football)
Michigan: Win (but close, they will be much improved and their option will hurt our defense)
@ Northwestern: Win (another close one; their defense is better than ours, but our offense will prevail)
@ Hawaii: Win (not the same since their coaching change)
That’s an unreasonably optimistic 10-2, with a terrible out-of-conference schedule, and optimistic picks against Michigan State, Iowa, and Northwestern. With as weak a Big Ten slate as we have this season (no Penn State or Illinois, still rebuidling Michigan, MSU with a new quarterback and running back, Iowa has a new running back, and Northwestern has a new quarterback), 10-2 just isn't that impressive. Worse than 8-4 would be a disaster of a season.
Scheduling Outrage? Not Really.
Please. The FCS games replace overpriced mid-major "talent." No one ever liked playing the mid-majors, either. They were always "beneath us," too. They became too expensive so the big kids around the NCAA flexed a little muscle. "You want a cool million for a one-off at our house? Sorry, no. We'll go get
Those second rate games get us better bowls. I'm ok with that. They also make the athletic department more money. I'm ok with that, too. Some of you don't want to go watch the Wofford game? You're not going to cancel your season tickets over it; let someone else go in your place.
My understanding is that Alvarez wants one "travel" game a year for the alumni and the players (Las Vegas, California, Hawaii, etc.), one "good" game for rankings purposes (a solid BCS team, or a Fresno State type), and some home moneymakers, e.g., FCS or cheap mid-majors. Makes sense to me.
Crying about missing out on Texas? Get over it. We got nothing in that proposed deal (for 2009). We gave up a home game (ticket sales are the lifeblood of the program), travel to Austin for a likely loss, which hurts us more than beating Wofford does (lower ranking, fewer wins, lower bowl, less media attention, less money -- gee, looks like a real winner), and Texas backs out of the return game four years later because, well, they can make a bunch of money by staying at home and playing Chattanooga. If Texas will negotiate with us on close to even terms, that deal can happen. If not, I'm happy playing ASU, Oregon State, Virginia Tech, etc. Oh, but we won't be a national title contender? I'm sorry, when was the last time we were? Let's try winning the Big Ten again before we worry about contending for national titles.
As for VaTech? I've written about that before. It was the right decision. Folks who think it wasn't are delusional. That is, unless you really like playing for the shot at the Insight or Champs Sports bowls.
Rumor Mill: Texas
(1) the Badgers won't travel to Austin in '09, but the schools are still working on a home-and-home deal. Landing a home-and-home with such a high profile opponent is tough for schools in the Badgers' tier of football competition (consistently good, not elite), so this would be a coup if Barry lands it. Keep your fingers crossed.
(2) Edited: lacking any further confirmation, the second rumor needs to be pulled.
Close, but no Burnt Orange Cigar
With ESPN's help, Texas and Wisconsin were trying to work out a home-and-home with the Badgers playing at Austin this coming fall. Unfortunately, the return date in Madison couldn't happen before 2013, and they scrapped the deal.
Too bad. I suspect the fan base would have loved it, even with a four year wait for the return.
Moreover, it's too bad we couldn't reshuffle a game or two to make it work. It's hard to get marquis teams like Texas to come to Madison. I'm disappointed the athletic department couldn't make this one happen.
Here's the link:
http://www.statesman.com/sports/content/sports/stories/longhorns/01/15/0115texfoot.html
A little clarification on my perspective is in order. These things aren't easy. They are negotiations. You don't just pick up the phone and say, "hey, let's play a game." There's a reason the Badger athletic department didn't make the deal and it likely has to do with the terms, i.e. Texas's position in the negotiations. Nonetheless, it's a shame it didn't happen.
The Capital Times reports a slightly different reason that the deal hasn't worked (yet): each team wants to preserve their 7 home games. This makes a lot of sense. What joe-fan may not realize is selling football tickets is the lifeblood of athletic departments. Giving up that seventh game means a lot of lost revenue for the department. That's not going to happen. Unless they can find a way that both teams play 7 home games, the deal can't happen.
Notes in the Off-Season
Scott Tappa at Badgercentric has a nice look at Badger running backs over the years.
A little noticed tidbit in the State Journal tells us that someone new will take over football scheduling duties. That said, Bielema and whomever the new assistant is take their direction from the AD, so don't expect to see big changes on the scheduling front. So probably little noticed for a reason.
Interesting summary of Paul Chryst's discussion of the quarterback situation with Mike Lucas and Matt lePay.
Rumor Mill: Texas Series starting in '09?
I'm in the highly pessimistic mode on this one for a handful of reasons. It's true that we could add a date next year because we're playing @ Hawaii, meaning we can add a 13th game. It's also true that our OOC slate is pretty poor. Nonetheless, a home and home with Texas is going to be hard to come by for UW and I'm not at all sure it's what the AD really wants at this point.
Nonetheless, I thought I'd throw it out there in case it sticks so that I can look like a genius . . .
Initial Thoughts: Florida State
8-4, 5-3 ACC. What's that mean? For one, they beat one decent non-conference opponent (Colorado, at home) and got the snot kicked out them when Florida visited Talahasee. Not too much shame there - the Gators would crush the Badgers, too. They feasted on Western Carolina and Chattanooga, and while outsiders might point to our close call with Cal Poly, I'd bet Cal Poly would feast on Western Carolina and Chattanooga, too.
So, 5-3 in the ACC. The ACC is a funny conference this season. Despite 80s and 90s powers, Miami, Florida State, and VaTech (not to mention consistently very good Boston College), the ACC just doesn't have a national title caliber team this year. What it does have, though, is a bunch of solid teams. A whole bunch. Ten of twelve are going bowling, and looking at their records against each other, every one of them is good one day, but suspect the next. The difference between 6-6 North Carolina State (PapaJohns.com Bowl), and 8-4 Virginia Tech (Orange Bowl) just isn't that big. FSU falls somewhere right in between (one Boston College loss from playing VaTech again in the ACC championship game).
The Noles even have a win over the aforementioned Orange Bowl-bound Hokies. Their three conference losses, not unlike the Badgers' five (good God, was it really 5!?!) conference losses are forgivable: Wake Forest (ok, that one sounds bad, but Wake is pretty good), Georgia Tech (who just beat pre-season #1 Georgia), and Boston College (loser of the ACC championship game). In addition to beating the Hokies, they had solid wins over Miami, Clemson, Maryland.
In short, Florida State is a solid, but not spectacular team. The Badgers will need a strong effort to beat them on what is basically their home turf.
More to come . . .
Bowl Benefits
Both games will offer good opponents for us: Champs Sports will offer a flawed ACC foe (aren't they all?), whereas the Insight likely offers a flawed Big XII foe (we, of course, are a flawed Big Ten offering).
Prestige? Seriously, we're going to evaluate prestige between two third-tier bowls? I'm not buying that Champs is that much better than the Insight. It pays more, but the money is shared in the Big Ten pot anyway (and after travel expenses, there won't be much leftover from either game), so it makes no actual difference to UW's program.
I'm not traveling and I get both the NFL Network and ESPN, so I'll watch either game, but Wednesday December 31st at 1:30 EST? That's DVR time for me and most people I know. This little thing called work. Sucks, don't it? Oh, and way more people have ESPN than the NFL Network. So Champs, on ESPN on a Saturday at 4:30 EST sounds like a clear winner.
Finally, who do *they* want? Does the Citrus Committee want to take a chance on the Wisconsin fan base skipping Florida this year? Or would they rather have the Minnesota fan base, riding a four-game losing streak with a blowout loss to Iowa, a not-close loss to Michigan, and a head-to-head loss to the Badgers? Oh, and with less helmetosity than Wisconsin?
I'll say this, the Insight Bowl is mad as heck at Notre Dame for losing to Syracuse (or Pitt, or North Carolina). Can you imagine the ratings bump if they could've had Notre Dame vs. Wisconsin? But no, no 6-6 teams picked over a 7-5 team, so the Insight gets Kansas. Kansas vs. Minnesota? Yawn.
For all Potrykus has lobbied against Florida this season, I think -- and hope -- we're headed to Champs. Think it would help if I went and bought something there for Christmas?
AAR: Cal Poly
Everyone feels bad for Andrew Gardner, but a team wins and loses as a team. Cal Poly didn't quite do enough to win. And homefield advantage helps, even with a slightly dimished crowd. It did Saturday, rattling a D-1 FCS kicker into missing as many extra points as he's missed since high school.
So, the biggest negative from a nail-biting come from behind victory over an FCS opponent*? Our defense can't defend the option. We did alright against it versus Ohio State, but that was against a true-freshman quarterback in his first or second start. Lots of teams run the option. We need to be able to stop it. If Doeren wants to stick around as the defensive coordinator, he needs to figure out how to coach up his defense against the option.
The biggest positive? Coming back. It showed heart. The defense did what they needed in the end, and the offense kept fighting back.
Players of the game? Sherer and Clay on offense; Langford for the defense. He was the difference doing as well as he did against Barden, who looks to play on Sunday next Fall.
* I know Cal Poly is a good FCS team, and I know some of those teams can really play. However, they are limited by more than 20 fewer scholarships, facilities that don't approach BCS program's stuff, crowds, stadiums, exposure, budget etc. that they can't come close to recruiting like we can. Just like I said about UNLV after my visit there, we should never lose to a team like this; we should never have to go to overtime against them.
About the Mustangs . . .

Cal Poly is 8-1 and ranked #3 in the Football Championship Subdivision (fka Div-1AA). They have played only one other FBS team, beating San Diego State 29-27 the second week of the year. For you Sagarin freaks, Cal Poly is currently ranked #100, ahead of prior Badger opponents Indiana (105) and Marshall (109). They average more than 46 points per game.
Cal Poly runs a triple option that relies heavily, but hardly exclusively, on the run.

They *spread* the ball around and everyone runs with it. Although they average nearly 300 yards per game on the ground, their leading rusher, "slotback" Ryan Mole has only 573 yards. The sign of a good option, six players, slotbacks, wingbacks, fullbacks, and their quarterback routinely handle the ball.
Quarterback Jonathan Dally was rated #2 in passing efficiency in the FCS division in 2007. This year he's even better, throwing 20 touchdowns to only 1 INT and averaging about 200 yards per game. Dally is also currently 2nd on the team with 526 rushing yards. WR Ramses Barden averages more than 120 yards per game through the air, and has caught 15 of Dally's 20 touchdown passes, good enough for first in their conference. At 6-6, he's a threat anytime the Mustangs are near the end zone.
One area the Badgers unsurprisingly have a "massive" advantage is along the offensive line. Here is a depth chart comparison ("the Thin Green Line"):
Cal Poly plays a 3-4 defense. On their line: DE: Gavin Cooper (6-3, 235), NT: James Chen (6-2 (260), DE: Sean Lawyer (6-1, 260). Their linebackers are on the slightly small end, but not dramatically (between 210 and 230). However, teams playing a 3-4 generally want a bigger linebacker or two to crowd the line. Cal Poly doesn't have that.
Contrast that with the Badgers' starting offensive line: Carimi (6-8, 301), Kemp (6-6, 315), Moffitt (6-4, 323), Urbik (6-6, 332), and returning to the lineup this week, Vanden Heuvel (6-7, 324). That's a lot of weight the Mustangs give up.
Their offensive line isn't very big, either: Right Tackle: Art Munoz (6-2, 270), Right Guard: Will Mitchell (6-1, 285), Center: Hal Kelley (6-0, 260), Left Guard: Maurice McClure (6-2, 275), Left tackle: Pat Koligian (6-3, 270).
It's a little hard to get much of a read on the Mustang defense because of the competition they play. They give up 370 yards of offense and 25 points per game. They have forced 24 turnovers, but are still -2 in turnover margin, having given up 26 turnovers (25 fumbles).
Finally, the Cal Poly place kicker isn't much to write home about. Gardner's gone 6-13, with a long of 36. He's 1-6 beyond 30 yards, and 5-7 under that.
The bottom line is that Wisconsin should dominate the Mustang defense. The question is, can they contain one of the wildest offenses in the west? A decent Big Ten team playing a highly rated FBS team? I've heard this somewhere before . . . the Badgers don't want to end up like this:
The Mustangs want to be next: http://www.sanluisobispo.com/sports/story/530428.html
A Win, a Loss, and Some Notes
Kyle Jefferson is out of the hospital, after two serious concussions in two years, is it time for him to hang it up? Without knowing more about Saturday's injury, I say it probably is.
Some highlight videos courtesy of the Big Ten Network (Rotel in your queso, right?) and UW. Oh, you can find all of the highlight videos for the year, plus some older ones, here: badgerfootballmedia
Here is UW's official game highlight video.
And some random notes.
First, Sherer was the Badger player of the game. Down 21-10 in the 3rd quarter, on 3rd and 7 from midfield, he escapes a tackle, rolls right, and fires a strike to Isaac Anderson, who takes it inside the 10. Key play on that touchdown drive. His subsequent 39-yard strike to Anderson effectively ties the game. And that doesn't take into account the one Anderson dropped that would've likely gone for 60+ yards. This was his best game so far, and here's hoping that having a starting quarterback with some experience helps us out next season.
Second, the hitting. Valai delivered a nasty blow on Minnesota's Soloman, taking off a huge chunk of his helmet. Didn't look intentional, but looked nasty. Similarly, the hit on Jefferson didn't look at all dirty, just unfortunate. Casillas lead with his helmet in the first half, but fortunately didn't hit the Goofer's helmet, nor did he hurt himself. Bielema's made it a point of emphasis with Big Ten refs, he needs to make sure he makes it a point of emphasis with his own team.
Allen Langford. Heard of him lately? No? It's because he's had a great year. He's been the only rock in our secondary and deserves a lot of credit for it.
Mike Newkirk. Great game, solid season.
Aubrey Pleasant. Nice game (though he ran under Weber's 4th and 18 completion in the 4th -- a better angle and he would've knocked it down, or even come up with a pick). Nice article on him in the State Journal. Good for him for sticking around for his degree. Glad to see he's gotten something out of it on the football field, too.
O'Brien Schofield had a great game, too. Let's hope that carries into next year, as he's our only returning starter on the defensive line.
David Gilreath has really come alive of late, and had two big plays again against Minnesota.
Paging Zach Brown? Word is he's dinged up. Hope it's not too serious.
Finally, Nick Toon looks to be coming along, and made a crucial pick-up, Badgers still down a touchdown, on 2nd and 19, he takes a crossing pattern for 17 + a 15-yard unecessary roughness penalty for a late hit on the sideline (which I actually thought was a little ticky-tack).
As for Minnesota: that ball-hawking isn't an accident. Remember the early days in the Alvarez era? Say, 1993? Our defense gave up a lot of yards, but picked up a lot of turnovers. Not that the Goofs are that good, but they do force a lot of turnovers. And Weber isn't there yet, but he's a solid player for them. With Decker back for another year, Minnesota's offense will stay dangerous. But thanks for the safety (he had all day to throw, he should've thrown it away).
More notes from: Badgercentric, Camp (and) Lambeau , and Dave Heller and Jeff Potrykus at the Journal Sentinel.
This season isn't over. Folks, don't overlook Cal Poly (8-1), #3 in the FBS (behind #2 Appalachian State -- remember them?), and averaging over 46 points per game.
In closing:
Badger Opponents, Week 9
Akron (4-4) won at Eastern Michigan.
Marshall (3-4) lost their third in a row, to UAB.
Fresno State (5-2) tough win over hapless Utah State
Michigan (2-6) lost to little brother; again, how are the Badgers one of those 2!?!
#13 Ohio State (7-2) tough loss to Penn State in Columbus
#3 Penn State (9-0) solid win on the road in Columbus
Iowa (5-3) took the week off to savor kicking our ass
#22 Michigan State (7-2) excersised some demons by beating big brother
Indiana (3-5) upset Northwestern; didn't see that coming
#20 Minnesota (7-1) believe that?!? Solid win over Purdue
Cal Poly (5-1) highly ranked FBS team, beat Southern Utah.
Badger Opponents, Week 6
Akron (3-3) with a nail biter over Kent State.
Marshall (3-3) got crushed by Cincinnati (who beat Akron by 3).
Fresno State (3-2) same old Bulldogs, lost to a bad Hawaii team the weak after beating UCLA.
Michigan (2-3) smoked by Illinois's play makers.
Penn State (6-0) beat Purdue easily, but didn't score much (20).
Iowa (3-3) turnovers cost them the upset over Michigan State.
Illinois (3-2) smoked Michigan.
Michigan State (5-1) escaped Iowa's upset bid.
Indiana (2-3) offense was ugly, save for one big play, in loss to Goofs.
Minnesota (5-1) the turnaround is working, but now comes the hard part.
Cal Poly (3-1) smoked South Dakota; these guys are decent.
Preview: Wisconsin @ Michigan
At 108,000 seats, the Big House is no Fresno State. At least not this year. Those 42,000 Bulldog fans were amped up, crazy about winning the biggest home game in their program's history, and they were going to let the Badgers know it. Big Blue, on the other hand, is reeling, questioning, fuming, and generally unenthusiastic about losses to Utah at home, and the hated Notre Dame. Sure, this game is a chance to get back on track, but if they fumble the ball away in the first quarter, that place will be quiet enough to hear a football drop.
But that doesn't mean the Wolverines will roll over and go away. Notre Dame had its best running performance so far against Michigan, whereas Michigan State shut Notre Dame's backs down. Why? Michigan expected Notre Dame to pass the ball, Michigan State dared them to. There's no questioning what Michigan will do this week: try and force Evridge to beat them with his arm. Of course, first they actually have to stop the Badgers from running the ball.
Wisconsin's greatest strength is its line. It's not just that they are big, they are athletic, too. Center John Moffit, the least experienced -- the only non-returning starter -- is a beast. Go back and watch him. If he isn't the best center in the nation by the time he's a senior I'll be surprised. Seriously. Now, the Badger line won't have their way with the Michigan front 7, but they will push them hard. Michigan won't get gashed, but PJ will finally get over 100 yards against them. So, with 8 guys in the box trying to stop the run (sometimes succeeding, sometimes not), how will Evridge fare?
Michigan's corners, Morgan Trent and Donovan Warren, will hold up fine against Gilreath and Jefferson (who will try to stretch the field, but probably won't). But Garrett Graham and Travis Beckum, returning to his '06-'07 form, present real problems to a defense keyed on stopping the run. This is where Chryst's offense really excels. Run the ball hard, turn to play action, and see if any of Michigan's linebackers can sniff out the play and cover Beckum or Graham . . . or both. They can't, at least not consistently. Evridge needs to be able to get them the ball and not throw picks. In addition, look for a handful of designed runs for Evridge. This is something we haven't seen yet this season, but he has the talent for it, and Bielema hinted we will start to see a little more of it.
Now, don't get me wrong, the Badgers aren't going to steamroll a pretty solid Michigan defense, but they will sustain a few drives and put points on the board.
When Michigan has the ball, the key for the Badgers is to finish tackles. Threet is improving at Quarterback and McGuffie is dangerous in space, but the entire offense is too inexperienced to really throw any wrinkles into the offense. As a result, with two weeks to study film, the Badger D will know what's coming. Casillas, Levy, and McFadden, with their speed, should be in position all day to shut down the screens Michigan loves to throw to McGuffie. Nonetheless, McGuffie will likely have a big play or two due to poor Badger tackling.
The Badger d-line, while not deep, is experienced, solid, and should be able to manage, if not control, the line against the inexperienced Michigan offensive line. Greg Matthews is a bit of a threat at WR and is better than the Badger corners, but Threet won't have a lot of time to get him the ball. I expect him to come down with one or two big passing plays, but not enough to fundamentally change the game.
Special teams favor Wisconsin. Gilreath has been solid, bordering on dangerous, returning the ball, and Welch and Nortman are surprisingly reliable kickers (especially Nortman punting). The Wolverine return teams have been suspect, to say the least.
Overall, I see the Badgers with a significant, but not huge, advantage when they have the ball, a slight advantage when playing defense (because Michigan will likely hurt them with a couple of big plays), and a moderate advantage in special teams. Unless the Wolverines come out very strong, the crowd won't likely be a factor. Moreover, turnovers have consistently hurt Michigan. While I'm still nervous about PJ holding onto the ball, Michigan is near the bottom of the Big Ten in turnover margin (at -3).
I don't see a blowout, but I see a strong showing from the Badgers, and a rare win in Ann Arbor: 23-13, Wisconsin.
Badger Opponents, Week 4
Anyway, here's how our opponents did this week:
Akron (2-2) beat Army easily. Not a bad MAC opponent, it seems.
Marshall (3-1) beat C-USA power Southern Miss: that's a quality win.
Fresno State (2-1) survived an upset bid by Toledo, 55-54 in double overtime.
Michigan (1-2) turned the ball over several more times, but survived against "Bye."
Ohio State (3-1) struggled to beat Troy; Pryor will be great, but isn't yet a downfield passing threat.
Penn State (4-0) destroyed another cupcake (Temple). Probably won't face a good defense until they come to Madison.
Iowa (3-1) lost a tough roadie against a mediocre Pittsburgh team; need to solve their quarterback controversy.
Illinois (2-1) was idle.
Michigan State (3-1) solid win over an improving, but inconsistent Notre Dame.
Indiana (2-1) lost an embarrassing one to Ball State, and it wasn't close.
Minnesota (4-0) believe that? Not that they've played anyone, but it's definitely improvement.
Cal Poly SLO (2-1) easily beat Northwestern State. Likely a solid FCS team. For what that's worth.
Badger Opponents, Week 3
Marshall (2-1) squeeked past winless Memphis (17-16).
Michigan (1-2) couldn't hang onto the ball against Notre Dame. McGuffie's future is bright.
Ohio State (2-1) made to look really bad by the odds on favorite for the national title.
Penn State (3-0) crushed hapless Syracuse; another really poor opponent.
Iowa (3-0) survived in-state rival Cyclones. They've looked good, but their schedule is a minor upgrade from Penn State's. (To be fair, Fresno State is the only difference between PSU, Iowa, and us).
Illinois (2-1) survived Louisiana Lafayette, on a late field goal.
Indiana (2-0): idle.
Minnesota (3-0): ok, so they haven't played anyone, but still, lots of improvement in the Twin Cities.
Cal Poly SLO (1-1): idle.
Road Trip!! What to do in Fresno

Most folks from Wisconsin are probably flying into San Francisco or LA. Enjoy the sights there, Fresno is less appealing, aesthetically speaking. But take note while making the drive, California is an agricultural state . . . a very big agricultural state. It's only on the coast that California is, well, California (the one you see in the media).
Once you make the drive down (or up) 99 (which will be hot -- possibly in the 100s during the day on Saturday), what's in Fresno?
My friends in Fresno tell me Me-n-Ed's Victory Grill is a solid sports bar (Link), as well as the Red Wave Inn (here) near the university, and the Dog House Grill (here).
For a great sandwich, The Meat Market (link) at Ingram and Alluvial.
The Forestiere Underground Gardens sound interesting: link
Other than that? Um. A couple of malls, with all the standard chain restaurants, and Indian Casinos, if that's your thing.
Badger Opponents, Week 2
So, how'd everyone do this week?
Akron (1-1) @ Syracuse: Syracuse is bad. Very bad.
#21 Fresno State: Bye
Michigan (1-1) vs. Miami (OH): offense struggled in an ugly win. Offense looks pretty suspect.
#5 Ohio State (2-0) vs. Ohio: looked very shaky without Wells.
#17 Penn State (2-0) vs. Oregon State: destroyed a questionable Beaver team. Might be much better than advertised.
Iowa (2-0) vs. FIU: crushed perennial bottom 10 dweller.
#24 Illinois (1-1) vs. Eastern Illinois: won big, as they should, but gave up 21 points. Suspect D.
Michigan State (1-1) vs. Eastern Michigan: did what they should, win big.
Indiana (2-0) vs. Murray State: crushed them. Looking dangerous.
Minnesota (2-0) at Bowling Green: Surprised everyone with an easy win. Doubled last year's win total.
Cal Poly SLO (1-1) vs. Montana: lost a tight one, 30-28.