Man, the anticipation of tomorrow's depth chart release is near killing me. Phillips? Tolzien? Sherer? For the record, I think it will be Phillips, but I'm not sure I read Bielema's comments about Sherer the same way the media has. I think what Bielema said is that they know what they have with Sherer, so they needed to give more reps to Phillips and Tolzien to make sure they know what they have with them. While I think the smart money's on Phillips, it still won't surprise me to see Sherer as the #1.
Brown over Clay? Taylor over Sorenson? Anderson over Gilreath? Smith over Brinkley? Who are the starting DTs? How does the offensive line shake out with all of the injuries?
Lots of good stuff due in tomorrow. And practically no new news today, which makes it tougher.
On an unrelated note, I've taken to penning some stuff for the Badgers page at the Bleacher Report. The first was a revised version of what I posted here the other day on quarterback potential, the second was a missive on my current worries about the defense, here.
Showing posts with label tailbacks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label tailbacks. Show all posts
Badger Blogger Roundtable: 2009 Offense
A handful of Badger Bloggers got together to discuss the upcoming football season. Joining me are Scott Tappa of Badgercentric, Phil Mitten of Hoops Marinara (a Badger basketball blog -- nice alliteration on that one, no?), and Adam Hoge of Bucky's 5th Quarter. We started with the easier task, making sense of the offense:
What's your take on the WR's? Is Gilreath really the #1? Where does Jefferson fit in post multiple concussions?
Bucky’s Fifth Quarter: Gilreath is No. 1 right now, but I'm convinced Nick Toon will be a starter by the opener. Whether that means he takes Isaac Anderson's spot or Gilreath's, we shall see, but Toon has great size and he proved last year he could make some big catches. As for Jefferson, I think it is all up to him. I didn't really like his attitude last season after a pretty good freshman year and I think that had a lot to do with his sub-par season. Attitude plays a big part in getting over concussions as well. Jefferson has the tools to make the UW receivers a scary group, but that doesn't necessarily mean he will make it happen.
BadgerCentric: Don't think Gilreath is the #1, not strong enough. Think it's gotta be Toon. Jefferson is the deep threat, can't see sending him over the middle any more. I have faith in Gilreath and Anderson to find openings in coverage, Brandon Williams types.
Hoops Marinara: Gilreath may be our best, but he's certainly not a #1. Honestly, I wish the best for Jefferson to contribute, but at this point I am hoping for Toon and/or Anderson to pass him by, preferrably Toon so we can have a steady option on the outside to go with Graham on the inside. Gilreath is slightly overrated as a return man (still waiting for that first TD!), but he does have the ability to break a big play. Maybe Jefferson could develop into our jump ball specialist in the red zone. Work on those hands son!
On Wisconsin: I think Gilreath was #1 last season by default -- Anderson had been hurt and Toon and Jefferson were far less experienced. I think he starts this season #3, as the slot receiver. Toon probably has the most talent, although I sometimes think we all get distracted by his last name. Anderson is a better pure receiver than Gilreath. Maybe not as fast, but better hands and better size. Anderson and Toon are your starting two. Gilreath is dangerous in space, but I think he’s #3 based on his size and hands. Jefferson? He’s a good kid, but I worry a lot about his head. I can’t see him starting over any of those three, so he spells Toon and Anderson. I think this is the best group of receivers – especially when you factor in the tight ends – in more than five years (with the depth, better than Williams, Orr, and Daniels). I’m excited about our passing game . . . IF . . .
The Running Backs? Anyone else think Brown may take more than 1/3 of the snaps this season? Worried about depth?
Hoops Marinara: What me, worry? No, I think the depth is fine at RB. Wisconsin has always done well with the next man in philosophy, so the Badgers can handle a minor injury here and there and use a Ewing or an Erik Smith as needed. I am okay with Brown taking a full 3rd of the snaps if it means keeping JC the Messiah fresh.
Bucky’s Fifth Quarter: I don't think Brown gets a third of the snaps unless John Clay has to battle some injuries. Still, a fourth of the carries seems realistic because of Brown's talent. I'm not worried about depth because Montee Ball provides some emergency insurance much like Brown did during his freshman season. The difference is that UW needed Brown because Lance Smith couldn't play in road games, but if Wisconsin needs to use Ball this season because of injuries then they could pull the red-shirt early.
BadgerCentric: Hadn't thought of it, but I agree Brown might take more than a third of the snaps, a combination of his being pretty good, Clay being in his first season as the main guy, and probably more third downs than we'd like.
On Wisconsin: I’m still not sold on Clay as the every-down back. The position takes more than just running the ball hard and I think Chryst’s offense looks for more flexibility with the back (see, e.g., Calhoun, Brian). Brown provides a lot more of that. I think Brown could see as many as 40% of the snaps, though probably only about 1/4 of the carries. Regardless, if they stay healthy, I honestly think this is the best 1-2 combination in the Big Ten this year.
Tight Ends? So Graham is a beast, how dangerous is Kendricks? Will Turner really just be a fullback already at the line? Will we ever even see a true fullback with this offense?
On Wisconsin: Kendricks is dangerous enough to line up wide as a receiver every now and again, which makes sending in the right personnel tough for the defensive coordinator. I like that flexibility and with him and Graham out there you see a great 2-tight end set. That said, Mickey Turner played very well last season as a traditional tight end and several times proved he could make the catches we need that #2 tight end to make. Remember in 2006 when we went the whole season without a fullback? Worked out ok. I suspect Turner will play a fullback-ish role, but I think it will most often come after he lines up as a second tight end. I think we see very little of a traditional fullback this season. At least that’s my hope – our personnel are built for the 2-tight end set.
Hoops Marinara: I anticipate the Graham/Kendricks combo to surpass the Beckum/Graham combo ... of last season. That means accumulating more than 2008's 60+ catches, 800+ yards and 5 TDs. Very doable as long as they are both healthy.
Bucky’s Fifth Quarter: Lance Kendricks is very dangerous and we've seen in past years how much better UW's offense is when they have two tight ends that can catch the ball. As far as Turner goes, I think he gets a good amount of snaps at the traditional fullback position. The fullback has been pretty important in recent years and if they need to use him there they will.
BadgerCentric: I can see fullbacks still playing a part of this offense, seems like we're still recruiting that type of kid. Turner's a blocker, not much more. With Graham and a solid group of wide receivers, I don't see Kendricks catching more than 35 or 40 passes, max, even if he's a lot better.
And the biggie . . . who's it going to be? Who should it be? And why?
BadgerCentric: It's going to be Sherer, at least at the start. It should be ... Budmayr if he's even close to being ready. A reach? Maybe. But my sense is he's the best passer of this group, he probably wouldn't be much worse than the other guys this year, and we could have him start for four years.
On Wisconsin: I guess I just don’t trust inexperienced players and I think Sherer got a bad rap. He played very well after his first start (Iowa; that can hardly be blamed on him). He also got the ball to his WRs more than either Evridge or Donovan did, which is a positive. Did he look bad against FSU? In the second half, but he had little time to throw the ball and the offense was predictable at that point. I think we’ll see pretty solid (not spectacular) play from Dustin this year and the real battle will be redshirt Freshman Budmayr vs. Sophomore Phillips in 2010.
Hoops Marinara: Scherer to start. But it should be Phillips from Day 1. He's put a year in on the scout team already. Phillips has the running instincts that has brought Wisconsin success in the past (ie: Samuels, Bollinger) but a better arm.
Bucky’s Fifth Quarter: As of today it is going to be Dustin Sherer and should be Dustin Sherer because Curt Phillips and Jon Budmayr haven't shown enough yet to be considered a starter. Still, I find it slightly peculiar that Sherer isn't one of the three players representing the Badgers at Big Ten Media Days this year. We know -- and I think the coaches know -- that this is still Dustin Sherer we are talking about. He has never shown us anything spectacular and if Curt Phillips comes on strong during camp then it wouldn't surprise me at all if Sherer didn't start the season at quarterback. At the very least, I doubt Sherer starts all 12 regular season games.
I guess on offense all that leaves is the line: How will it be with three new starters? Was Bielema serious that Konz could push Oglesby out of the starter's spot, or was he just making a point to Josh? How will Bscherer be at guard? Anyone else worried about a lack of depth at guard? Will anything stop the rash of false starts and holding penalties?
Bucky’s Fifth Quarter: I think the Peter Konz chatter was a motivational ploy to get Oglesby going. We are getting close to that point where if Oglesby isn't starting now then he might never be starting. Bscherer will be fine at guard, but probably not spectacular. Fans should be worried about the depth right now, but I think guys like Travis Frederick and Jake Current will ease those worries by the end of the season. If the false starts and holding penalties don't stop then that reflects back on the coaching staff. I think that is one of a handful of improvements that we have to see this season or the hot seat will start scorching Bielema's rear end.
On Wisconsin: Oglesby was a 5-star because of his size, but Konz wasn’t a legit threat to his position; Josh will start. The fact that they moved Bscherer to guard, rather than demoting Oglesby, tells me Josh is doing ok, if maybe not living up to all the (probably unfair) hype. I see injuries at the guard position as a real concern. Freshman lineman aren’t something you like to see, and that’s where we are if Bscherer or Nagy goes down. Bielema and Chryst need to end the penalties. I’ve never coached football, so I don’t know how to do it, but it needs to happen. If it does, I think we’re looking at a solid line, maybe as good as last year (especially considering how many games Oglesby and Nagy played significant minutes in).
BadgerCentric: The line won't be as good as last year, but I'm not worried about it. Carimi is a stud, Moffitt's solid, and the other three starters have starting experience. I could see Konz beating out Oglesby, he struggled mightily at times last year. Bscherer I see being a Matt Lawrence type, someone who's not going to be a huge plus but isn't going to be a liability.
Hoops Marinara: I am looking for a hungrier group of lineman this year that could surprise some people. Bielema is not afraid to call guys out (remember P.J. Hill's "toughen-up pills"?), so Oglesby needs to get it together quickly. Everything looks if he finally gets it, even the depth. Unfortunately, I think as long as Bielema is the head coach some undisciplined play will be the norm. We know he's less of a cool collected guy than Barry, plus he's spread himself too thin.
What's your take on the WR's? Is Gilreath really the #1? Where does Jefferson fit in post multiple concussions?
Bucky’s Fifth Quarter: Gilreath is No. 1 right now, but I'm convinced Nick Toon will be a starter by the opener. Whether that means he takes Isaac Anderson's spot or Gilreath's, we shall see, but Toon has great size and he proved last year he could make some big catches. As for Jefferson, I think it is all up to him. I didn't really like his attitude last season after a pretty good freshman year and I think that had a lot to do with his sub-par season. Attitude plays a big part in getting over concussions as well. Jefferson has the tools to make the UW receivers a scary group, but that doesn't necessarily mean he will make it happen.
BadgerCentric: Don't think Gilreath is the #1, not strong enough. Think it's gotta be Toon. Jefferson is the deep threat, can't see sending him over the middle any more. I have faith in Gilreath and Anderson to find openings in coverage, Brandon Williams types.
Hoops Marinara: Gilreath may be our best, but he's certainly not a #1. Honestly, I wish the best for Jefferson to contribute, but at this point I am hoping for Toon and/or Anderson to pass him by, preferrably Toon so we can have a steady option on the outside to go with Graham on the inside. Gilreath is slightly overrated as a return man (still waiting for that first TD!), but he does have the ability to break a big play. Maybe Jefferson could develop into our jump ball specialist in the red zone. Work on those hands son!
On Wisconsin: I think Gilreath was #1 last season by default -- Anderson had been hurt and Toon and Jefferson were far less experienced. I think he starts this season #3, as the slot receiver. Toon probably has the most talent, although I sometimes think we all get distracted by his last name. Anderson is a better pure receiver than Gilreath. Maybe not as fast, but better hands and better size. Anderson and Toon are your starting two. Gilreath is dangerous in space, but I think he’s #3 based on his size and hands. Jefferson? He’s a good kid, but I worry a lot about his head. I can’t see him starting over any of those three, so he spells Toon and Anderson. I think this is the best group of receivers – especially when you factor in the tight ends – in more than five years (with the depth, better than Williams, Orr, and Daniels). I’m excited about our passing game . . . IF . . .
The Running Backs? Anyone else think Brown may take more than 1/3 of the snaps this season? Worried about depth?
Hoops Marinara: What me, worry? No, I think the depth is fine at RB. Wisconsin has always done well with the next man in philosophy, so the Badgers can handle a minor injury here and there and use a Ewing or an Erik Smith as needed. I am okay with Brown taking a full 3rd of the snaps if it means keeping JC the Messiah fresh.
Bucky’s Fifth Quarter: I don't think Brown gets a third of the snaps unless John Clay has to battle some injuries. Still, a fourth of the carries seems realistic because of Brown's talent. I'm not worried about depth because Montee Ball provides some emergency insurance much like Brown did during his freshman season. The difference is that UW needed Brown because Lance Smith couldn't play in road games, but if Wisconsin needs to use Ball this season because of injuries then they could pull the red-shirt early.
BadgerCentric: Hadn't thought of it, but I agree Brown might take more than a third of the snaps, a combination of his being pretty good, Clay being in his first season as the main guy, and probably more third downs than we'd like.
On Wisconsin: I’m still not sold on Clay as the every-down back. The position takes more than just running the ball hard and I think Chryst’s offense looks for more flexibility with the back (see, e.g., Calhoun, Brian). Brown provides a lot more of that. I think Brown could see as many as 40% of the snaps, though probably only about 1/4 of the carries. Regardless, if they stay healthy, I honestly think this is the best 1-2 combination in the Big Ten this year.
Tight Ends? So Graham is a beast, how dangerous is Kendricks? Will Turner really just be a fullback already at the line? Will we ever even see a true fullback with this offense?
On Wisconsin: Kendricks is dangerous enough to line up wide as a receiver every now and again, which makes sending in the right personnel tough for the defensive coordinator. I like that flexibility and with him and Graham out there you see a great 2-tight end set. That said, Mickey Turner played very well last season as a traditional tight end and several times proved he could make the catches we need that #2 tight end to make. Remember in 2006 when we went the whole season without a fullback? Worked out ok. I suspect Turner will play a fullback-ish role, but I think it will most often come after he lines up as a second tight end. I think we see very little of a traditional fullback this season. At least that’s my hope – our personnel are built for the 2-tight end set.
Hoops Marinara: I anticipate the Graham/Kendricks combo to surpass the Beckum/Graham combo ... of last season. That means accumulating more than 2008's 60+ catches, 800+ yards and 5 TDs. Very doable as long as they are both healthy.
Bucky’s Fifth Quarter: Lance Kendricks is very dangerous and we've seen in past years how much better UW's offense is when they have two tight ends that can catch the ball. As far as Turner goes, I think he gets a good amount of snaps at the traditional fullback position. The fullback has been pretty important in recent years and if they need to use him there they will.
BadgerCentric: I can see fullbacks still playing a part of this offense, seems like we're still recruiting that type of kid. Turner's a blocker, not much more. With Graham and a solid group of wide receivers, I don't see Kendricks catching more than 35 or 40 passes, max, even if he's a lot better.
And the biggie . . . who's it going to be? Who should it be? And why?
BadgerCentric: It's going to be Sherer, at least at the start. It should be ... Budmayr if he's even close to being ready. A reach? Maybe. But my sense is he's the best passer of this group, he probably wouldn't be much worse than the other guys this year, and we could have him start for four years.
On Wisconsin: I guess I just don’t trust inexperienced players and I think Sherer got a bad rap. He played very well after his first start (Iowa; that can hardly be blamed on him). He also got the ball to his WRs more than either Evridge or Donovan did, which is a positive. Did he look bad against FSU? In the second half, but he had little time to throw the ball and the offense was predictable at that point. I think we’ll see pretty solid (not spectacular) play from Dustin this year and the real battle will be redshirt Freshman Budmayr vs. Sophomore Phillips in 2010.
Hoops Marinara: Scherer to start. But it should be Phillips from Day 1. He's put a year in on the scout team already. Phillips has the running instincts that has brought Wisconsin success in the past (ie: Samuels, Bollinger) but a better arm.
Bucky’s Fifth Quarter: As of today it is going to be Dustin Sherer and should be Dustin Sherer because Curt Phillips and Jon Budmayr haven't shown enough yet to be considered a starter. Still, I find it slightly peculiar that Sherer isn't one of the three players representing the Badgers at Big Ten Media Days this year. We know -- and I think the coaches know -- that this is still Dustin Sherer we are talking about. He has never shown us anything spectacular and if Curt Phillips comes on strong during camp then it wouldn't surprise me at all if Sherer didn't start the season at quarterback. At the very least, I doubt Sherer starts all 12 regular season games.
I guess on offense all that leaves is the line: How will it be with three new starters? Was Bielema serious that Konz could push Oglesby out of the starter's spot, or was he just making a point to Josh? How will Bscherer be at guard? Anyone else worried about a lack of depth at guard? Will anything stop the rash of false starts and holding penalties?
Bucky’s Fifth Quarter: I think the Peter Konz chatter was a motivational ploy to get Oglesby going. We are getting close to that point where if Oglesby isn't starting now then he might never be starting. Bscherer will be fine at guard, but probably not spectacular. Fans should be worried about the depth right now, but I think guys like Travis Frederick and Jake Current will ease those worries by the end of the season. If the false starts and holding penalties don't stop then that reflects back on the coaching staff. I think that is one of a handful of improvements that we have to see this season or the hot seat will start scorching Bielema's rear end.
On Wisconsin: Oglesby was a 5-star because of his size, but Konz wasn’t a legit threat to his position; Josh will start. The fact that they moved Bscherer to guard, rather than demoting Oglesby, tells me Josh is doing ok, if maybe not living up to all the (probably unfair) hype. I see injuries at the guard position as a real concern. Freshman lineman aren’t something you like to see, and that’s where we are if Bscherer or Nagy goes down. Bielema and Chryst need to end the penalties. I’ve never coached football, so I don’t know how to do it, but it needs to happen. If it does, I think we’re looking at a solid line, maybe as good as last year (especially considering how many games Oglesby and Nagy played significant minutes in).
BadgerCentric: The line won't be as good as last year, but I'm not worried about it. Carimi is a stud, Moffitt's solid, and the other three starters have starting experience. I could see Konz beating out Oglesby, he struggled mightily at times last year. Bscherer I see being a Matt Lawrence type, someone who's not going to be a huge plus but isn't going to be a liability.
Hoops Marinara: I am looking for a hungrier group of lineman this year that could surprise some people. Bielema is not afraid to call guys out (remember P.J. Hill's "toughen-up pills"?), so Oglesby needs to get it together quickly. Everything looks if he finally gets it, even the depth. Unfortunately, I think as long as Bielema is the head coach some undisciplined play will be the norm. We know he's less of a cool collected guy than Barry, plus he's spread himself too thin.
Starting Offense?
It seems like every day we're hearing about how good JJ Watt and Nick Toon look. Sometimes Spring sensations don't turn into Fall gold, but I'm optimistic -- it's that time of year. Ok, so take the quarterback off the table for a minute (as before I'm in the Sherer camp, based purely on what we hear) and just look at the starting 10 for the 2009 offense.
No offense to Jones, Spitz, and Ewing, but based on the talent we have, I think you're looking at fewer downs with a fullback in the backfield. I think the sets we'll see the most from Chryst will be two tight ends, two wide receivers, or three wide receivers, 1 tight end, only one tailback. See 2005 (3/1 sets) and 2006 (no healthy fullbacks, lots of 2/2 sets). I'm also thinking that we'll see a Moss/Fletcher circa '93 type split of backfield duties. Brown is the better all-around back, but Clay just brings too much to the table for him not to get the majority of the carries. It's not going to be a feature back system, though. I think we'll see about a 60/40 Clay to Brown split in snaps.
From what we're hearing Toon must be locking down a starting spot on the outside. Maybe the bigger question is who is the #1 receiver, Anderson or Gilreath. I'm sticking with Anderson, and keeping Gilreath as #3, which means lots of playing time. You have to like the flexibility you get with Graham and Kendricks (or Turner) in there. Two tight ends with traditional size and blocking ability, plus Toon's size for downfield blocking. Clay and Brown should love the opportunities they get on the ground. And with Brown in there, you're looking at a formation (the 2/2) that could run a power dive, or send 5 solid receivers into pass patterns. That can happen with both tight ends in, or Chryst can send Kendricks wide, as he has before, effectively giving the Badgers a 3/1 set with 2/2 personnel. Chryst obviously knows way more about all of this than I ever will, but I'm salivating at the possibilities.
No offense to Jones, Spitz, and Ewing, but based on the talent we have, I think you're looking at fewer downs with a fullback in the backfield. I think the sets we'll see the most from Chryst will be two tight ends, two wide receivers, or three wide receivers, 1 tight end, only one tailback. See 2005 (3/1 sets) and 2006 (no healthy fullbacks, lots of 2/2 sets). I'm also thinking that we'll see a Moss/Fletcher circa '93 type split of backfield duties. Brown is the better all-around back, but Clay just brings too much to the table for him not to get the majority of the carries. It's not going to be a feature back system, though. I think we'll see about a 60/40 Clay to Brown split in snaps.
From what we're hearing Toon must be locking down a starting spot on the outside. Maybe the bigger question is who is the #1 receiver, Anderson or Gilreath. I'm sticking with Anderson, and keeping Gilreath as #3, which means lots of playing time. You have to like the flexibility you get with Graham and Kendricks (or Turner) in there. Two tight ends with traditional size and blocking ability, plus Toon's size for downfield blocking. Clay and Brown should love the opportunities they get on the ground. And with Brown in there, you're looking at a formation (the 2/2) that could run a power dive, or send 5 solid receivers into pass patterns. That can happen with both tight ends in, or Chryst can send Kendricks wide, as he has before, effectively giving the Badgers a 3/1 set with 2/2 personnel. Chryst obviously knows way more about all of this than I ever will, but I'm salivating at the possibilities.
P.S. Konz practicing with the 1st team looks more and more like a ploy to get Oglesby practicing harder. Oglesby is your starting right tackle.
And then there's the quarterback issue. So anyway, here's how I see the starting lineup, depending on whether we're 3/1 or 2/2 WRs to TEs:
Flexibility and the Pro Style Offense
I have said before that Wisconsin's offense (under Chryst) resembles Notre Dame's offense (under Weis), but with key personnel differences. Whereas Notre Dame has top-end quarterback talent, the Badgers have relied on a punishing rushing attack. Or at least so goes the theory. The Blue-Gray Sky, an excellent Notre Dame football blog, just published an expose of at least one of the problems with the Notre Dame offense, here.
You'll note their discussion of the packages Notre Dame runs; they look a lot like the ones we run. The three biggest under Weis have been: (1) 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 RB; (2) 2 WR, 2 TE, 1 RB; and (3) 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 RB, 1 FB. Same as us. Now this is no great revelation; those are your traditional pro sets.
The big problem BGS identifies with Notre Dame's offensive production is predictability. Sound familiar? In their case, losing the ability to field two-tight end sets made them much more predictable. Especially because no one respected their run game. That should sound familiar, too, if an inverse of our problem last year. Injuries limited our ability to field the two-tight end set, no one respected our passing game. As a result we were very predictable. The key isn’t necessarily the two-tight end set; it’s flexibility, but the two-tight end set helps create flexibility.
Oddly, 2005 may have been the panacea for both teams' offenses. The Irish had Quinn going to Stovall and Samardzija, along with Fasano at tight end and Darius Walker as the running back. All of those guys are pro athletes now (Samardzija is a Cub, but the rest are in the League, as are several of their lineman). It was a good year for the Badgers, too, with Stocco, Williams and Orr, Daniels, and Calhoun. A step down in talent at QB and WR, but pretty solid players. And what did both offenses have? Flexibility. Quality receiving threats, including at TE, quality running backs, and quality quarterbacks running the show. Just like Notre Dame, in 2005 we were versatile. Stocco threw the ball 46% of the time on first down.[i] When Stocco was dealing with 9 new starters on the offense, in 2006,[ii] he was down to passing only 40% of the time on first down.
There's another piece, hinted at above: other than the quarterback, who's on the field? From '05 to '06, Stocco lost all of his "skill position" players. Not surprisingly, even with a quality quarterback, Chryst got a little more conservative, and went to the running game a little more often, and in the passing game, it was all tight ends, all the time. Well, almost. Of the 53 passing plays I could identify the receiver, 51% were to tight ends (Beckum and Crooks), 47% to WRs (Hubbard and Swan; only 3 to backs). Contrast that with '05, when Stocco went to his receivers 57% of the time, and his other throws were evenly divided between his backs (mostly Calhoun) and his tight ends (mostly Daniels).
Moving on to 2007, Donovan is under center, and the other skill players are the same: Hubbard, Swan, Beckum, Graham (Crooks was injured most of the season) and Hill. On first down?[iii] Passing 41% of the time; about the same as Stocco with the same lineup. And Donovan's targets overall? 49% tight ends, only 41% to the receivers. The remaining 10% went to backs. Not surprising that Chryst would have a first year starter throwing more to check downs than Stocco, a three-year starter.
And then we get to 2008. Not unlike the Irish in 2008, there was only one thing we could do well: run the ball (ND couldn’t do that; they passed the ball well). Our tight ends were dinged up and our down field threat was, let’s say . . . limited. So, on first down Evridge passes only 25% of the time, and Sherer only passed 23% of the time.[iv] That’s awfully one-dimensional.
Where did the 2008 passing plays go? Evridge threw to his tight ends (54%) and his backs (9%), with just 37% of his throws to wide receivers. Sherer, in contrast, found his receivers (53%) and his tight ends 43%, with only two throws to his backs (4%). For both, a tight end was the leading receiver (Beckum, then Graham, respectively; injuries to both playing a role), but Sherer spread the ball around more to his receivers.[v] Regardless of who was catching the ball, the Badgers relied too much on the run. The lack of flexibility translated to predictability.
Which leads us to Spring 2009. Coming back to the offense may be a better set of weapons than we had in 2005. At tailback we have the punishing Clay (more fleet of foot than Hill, by a fair margin), “all-around” Zach Brown, and either Erik Smith or Montee Ball (when he matriculates in the Fall). The wide receivers are likely led by Isaac Anderson, but Nick Toon has been flashing his skills of late, David Gilreath is a big-play threat, and Kyle Jefferson isn’t far behind Toon. With Garrett Graham back along with Mickey Turner and H-backish Lance Kendricks, we’re well stocked at tight end. That’s a lot of skill on the offense by Badger football standards.
That leaves the same gaping question: the quarterback.
And that leads me back to Sherer vs. Phillips and Budmayr. We need someone who can manage a complex offense. As much as Budmayr may be a future star, a true freshman with one Spring camp under his belt, isn’t likely to do it. Not unless we want a repeat of last year’s single dimensional offense. So, Phillips and Sherer.[vi] It doesn’t come down to who throws the better spiral or who has the bigger cannon for an arm. It’s the guy that can best spread it around. He needs to understand the variety in the offense, and he needs to get the ball there.
As Bielema said the other day, Sherer has a clear advantage in understanding the offense. 2009 will be his 5th season with the Chyrst playbook vs. Phillips’s second (and last season Phillips was mostly running the scout team). That means Phillips has to be that much better than Sherer at getting the ball to his receivers.[vii] Can he be? I’d say it’s a tough hill to climb.
At this point, I’d say the odds should be on Sherer, and the fans should be happy about it. He’s already shown that he’s capable of spreading the ball around. If he can lock down a little more throwing consistency, he could be a solid game manager. And that’s all we really need to return flexibility to the Badger offense.
And two-tight end sets.
[i] Evaluating three competitive games in ’05:
[ii] Against
[iii] Against
[iv] When not in the 2-minute drill. Evridge is against
[v] Keeping in mind that these statistics are just from two competitive games, it’s tough to extrapolate too much, but in those games Sherer found Graham 14 times,
This isn’t entirely fair to Evridge. With two healthy tight ends, against
[vi] It’s unfair that I’m not including Tolzien, but I have yet to see a report that indicates he’s a serious contender to start.
[vii] Phillips’ running ability is nice, but we have capable backs and we don’t run a spread option.
Notes from Bielema
Coach Bielema gave an enlightening interview to the Big Ten Network, below. Some things of note:
(1) Sherer is in the lead. He says so specifically. Something I noticed about the quarterback discussion in 2007 and 2008? Bielema and Chryst both gave direct answers that were prescient about who would start. With Donovan, he had an understanding of the playbook and toughness, whereas Evridge needed more consistency. Then with Evridge it was experience, but everyone needed to be more consistent (then experience wasn't getting it done). All of that was absolutely true.
Bielema's doing the same things. (1) Sherer has the "upper hand" and has taken a big step forward this Spring. (2) Notice the paucity of remarks about Phillips. The only thing he says is that the Spring start last year helped him; nothing about what he's doing right. (3) Tolzein does certain things well, but isn't flexible: i.e., doesn't read defenses, breakdowns well. (4) Budmayr? Looks good. Seriously, we aren't starting a true freshman.
Bielema tells us what he's thinking, really. I'll be moderately surprised if Sherer isn't the starter in the fall.
Some other things? He was more positive about Clay than Settle was a week ago. Still, expect Brown to get around 40% of the carries. He's more versatile, and Clay's size won't allow him to take many more than 60% of the carries.
Oglesby vs. Konz? This is the big battle that's suprising folks (Bscherer is firmly planted at guard). A by-line in an article in the Journal Sentinel, and now Bielema's comments to BTN? Ok, maybe. Taking a wild guess, the coaches think Oglesby isn't working hard enough and they're pushing him to work harder. As long as he responds, he's still the right tackle.
There's been a lot of emphasis on the change in the conditioning program. I like big, strong football players. What I'm hoping is that we have a defense that isn't gassed in the second half. That's been a consistent theme over the years under Bielema. It needs to end.
The team is practicing turnovers. That's a good thing. It was a major problem last season, so I'm happy to hear the coaching staff is addressing it.
Finally, no more weakside or strongside linebackers. Like the safeties and also the ends, the defense will be playing left and right, not strong and weak. Apparently this is part of the recognition of how things need to change to defend the spread.
Here's the interview:
(1) Sherer is in the lead. He says so specifically. Something I noticed about the quarterback discussion in 2007 and 2008? Bielema and Chryst both gave direct answers that were prescient about who would start. With Donovan, he had an understanding of the playbook and toughness, whereas Evridge needed more consistency. Then with Evridge it was experience, but everyone needed to be more consistent (then experience wasn't getting it done). All of that was absolutely true.
Bielema's doing the same things. (1) Sherer has the "upper hand" and has taken a big step forward this Spring. (2) Notice the paucity of remarks about Phillips. The only thing he says is that the Spring start last year helped him; nothing about what he's doing right. (3) Tolzein does certain things well, but isn't flexible: i.e., doesn't read defenses, breakdowns well. (4) Budmayr? Looks good. Seriously, we aren't starting a true freshman.
Bielema tells us what he's thinking, really. I'll be moderately surprised if Sherer isn't the starter in the fall.
Some other things? He was more positive about Clay than Settle was a week ago. Still, expect Brown to get around 40% of the carries. He's more versatile, and Clay's size won't allow him to take many more than 60% of the carries.
Oglesby vs. Konz? This is the big battle that's suprising folks (Bscherer is firmly planted at guard). A by-line in an article in the Journal Sentinel, and now Bielema's comments to BTN? Ok, maybe. Taking a wild guess, the coaches think Oglesby isn't working hard enough and they're pushing him to work harder. As long as he responds, he's still the right tackle.
There's been a lot of emphasis on the change in the conditioning program. I like big, strong football players. What I'm hoping is that we have a defense that isn't gassed in the second half. That's been a consistent theme over the years under Bielema. It needs to end.
The team is practicing turnovers. That's a good thing. It was a major problem last season, so I'm happy to hear the coaching staff is addressing it.
Finally, no more weakside or strongside linebackers. Like the safeties and also the ends, the defense will be playing left and right, not strong and weak. Apparently this is part of the recognition of how things need to change to defend the spread.
Here's the interview:
Rolling Along Through Spring Practice
First, tracking Potrykus's comments, I'm sticking with my obscenely early snap decision that Sherer will be the starter. And I'm ok with that.
The Sentinel's (unattributed, but got to believe it's Potrykus's) latest practice report has some good info in it. From the sound of things, expect Toon as a starting wide receiver. It's good to hear that Jefferson is doing something to reduce his exposure to further concussions, but with the solid reports Toon is getting, I'm assuming he'll be the first on the field (with Anderson). As I said the other day, I think 3 WRs will be a pretty common set for the Badgers, with a TE rather than a fullback. That's where Gilreath will come in, I think. On the other hand, with Mickey Turner flashing some skills in practice, Chryst may have a tough decision whether to go that way, or two tight ends, which might give him as many weapons receiving, and better versatility running. Either way, don't expect to see our new fullbacks (Jones, Ewing, and Spitz) on the field as often as you saw Pressley and Rentmeester last season.
Two more notes from the report: it sounds like the DBs are playing pretty well (also here), and Pat Hughes, a walk-on, will be the back-up kicker with Fischer off to Cornell (Potrykus asks Bielema about it on video; also an interesting discussion of the DBs, including focus on Otis Merrill who remains buried in the depth chart).
Speaking of the secondary, another note from the JS gives a little background on the Shane Carter "incident" that kept him out of the bowl (not academics, as I previously misstated). Also, Potrykus reiterates what Coach Cooks said last week, that the safeties will play one side and the other, but not a traditional strong and free safety. In the back of my head that worries me a little re Valai, who's height might be a liability in a free safety-type role -- on the other hand, it's probably a liability no matter what. Despite that, he got consistently better last year, and I expect will do the same this year.
JJ Watt sounds like the real deal at DT. I remain not terribly concerned about the d-line.
Badgerbeat reiterates what Coach Settle had to say about John Clay: lose weight, understand the playbook. Clay has been up around 250, but needs to get to 240, preferably a little lower than that. I've got to believe Clay will stay at #1 on the depth chart, but if he doesn't get a better handle on the playbook, we'll see more of Zach Brown. Not a bad thing. Zach can play.
The Sentinel's (unattributed, but got to believe it's Potrykus's) latest practice report has some good info in it. From the sound of things, expect Toon as a starting wide receiver. It's good to hear that Jefferson is doing something to reduce his exposure to further concussions, but with the solid reports Toon is getting, I'm assuming he'll be the first on the field (with Anderson). As I said the other day, I think 3 WRs will be a pretty common set for the Badgers, with a TE rather than a fullback. That's where Gilreath will come in, I think. On the other hand, with Mickey Turner flashing some skills in practice, Chryst may have a tough decision whether to go that way, or two tight ends, which might give him as many weapons receiving, and better versatility running. Either way, don't expect to see our new fullbacks (Jones, Ewing, and Spitz) on the field as often as you saw Pressley and Rentmeester last season.
Two more notes from the report: it sounds like the DBs are playing pretty well (also here), and Pat Hughes, a walk-on, will be the back-up kicker with Fischer off to Cornell (Potrykus asks Bielema about it on video; also an interesting discussion of the DBs, including focus on Otis Merrill who remains buried in the depth chart).
Speaking of the secondary, another note from the JS gives a little background on the Shane Carter "incident" that kept him out of the bowl (not academics, as I previously misstated). Also, Potrykus reiterates what Coach Cooks said last week, that the safeties will play one side and the other, but not a traditional strong and free safety. In the back of my head that worries me a little re Valai, who's height might be a liability in a free safety-type role -- on the other hand, it's probably a liability no matter what. Despite that, he got consistently better last year, and I expect will do the same this year.
JJ Watt sounds like the real deal at DT. I remain not terribly concerned about the d-line.
Badgerbeat reiterates what Coach Settle had to say about John Clay: lose weight, understand the playbook. Clay has been up around 250, but needs to get to 240, preferably a little lower than that. I've got to believe Clay will stay at #1 on the depth chart, but if he doesn't get a better handle on the playbook, we'll see more of Zach Brown. Not a bad thing. Zach can play.
Spring Previews
As we're about two weeks from Spring practice starting, UW has begun releasing pre-Spring position previews. So far they've put up the offensive line, defensive line, and running backs.
Of note, reshirt freshman Peter Konz has been switched from defense to offensive guard for this year. Line coach Bostad says Konz, Zeitler, and Current will compete for the left guard spot. Interesting battle shaping up for right tackle between Bscherer and Oglesby who have both seen significant time on the field at tackle. Current looks to be the backup center, but that hasn't prevented players from starting at guard before. Guard depth still looks like an issue. In sum, Carimi says (in the video UW offers) "We're mean." A lot meaner than years past, or so he says. That should be interesting . . .
For the defensive line, no big surprises. One change is it looks like Dan Moore will move from end to tackle. Transfer J.J. Watt, after sitting out last season, is getting a lot of attention for serious playing time this fall. In no particular order, Schofield, Kelly, Nzegwu and Mains are the likely two-deep at end, with Moore, Watt, Stehle, and Butrym likely the same for the tackle spots.
No surprises at running back, either. Clay, Brown, then the young guys. Concerns about depth, however, appear overstated. Fullback? It looks like this blind squirrel found a nut when predicting that Dex Jones might just be our next starting fullback. A little surprise is that Brady Ewing might be in the mix at fullback rather than halfback, as will walk-on Sam Spitz. Reading Coach Settle's comments, maybe the offense plans to use the fullback a little more to catch the ball out of the backfield? (In 2008, the Badgers completed one pass to a fullback.)
Although the Badgers haven't posted a quarterback preview yet, ESPN ran a little piece on Chryst's latest quarterback derby -- as basically everyone knows -- the biggest question heading into the Spring. Other than the puzzling statement that Budmayr was the Badgers' biggest quarterback recruit in years (1 year after the higher-rated, Mr. Tennessee Football, Phillips?),* the article seems pretty spot on.
You can find all of UW's Spring rundowns here.
Not to be overlooked, as Scott Tappa noted (as well as the media outlets), Elijah Hodge, Xavier Harris, and James Stallons won't return with the Badgers. Hodge will graduate in May and will forego his 5th year of eligibility in Madison. Harris's back has never sufficiently recovered from injury. His playing days are over, but he's on track to graduate (still on scholarship) next year. Stallons? With Phillips and Budmayr on the younger end of things and Tolzein and Sherer on the older, maybe he just didn't figure to get much playing time. Or maybe it was something else . . . ?
Harris and Hodge will both be missed for the depth they provided. Good for them for taking their education seriously. Both are pretty high profile examples of the injury bug ending bright prospects in football.
* Don't get me wrong, I'm excited about Budmayr's potential, too.
Of note, reshirt freshman Peter Konz has been switched from defense to offensive guard for this year. Line coach Bostad says Konz, Zeitler, and Current will compete for the left guard spot. Interesting battle shaping up for right tackle between Bscherer and Oglesby who have both seen significant time on the field at tackle. Current looks to be the backup center, but that hasn't prevented players from starting at guard before. Guard depth still looks like an issue. In sum, Carimi says (in the video UW offers) "We're mean." A lot meaner than years past, or so he says. That should be interesting . . .
For the defensive line, no big surprises. One change is it looks like Dan Moore will move from end to tackle. Transfer J.J. Watt, after sitting out last season, is getting a lot of attention for serious playing time this fall. In no particular order, Schofield, Kelly, Nzegwu and Mains are the likely two-deep at end, with Moore, Watt, Stehle, and Butrym likely the same for the tackle spots.
No surprises at running back, either. Clay, Brown, then the young guys. Concerns about depth, however, appear overstated. Fullback? It looks like this blind squirrel found a nut when predicting that Dex Jones might just be our next starting fullback. A little surprise is that Brady Ewing might be in the mix at fullback rather than halfback, as will walk-on Sam Spitz. Reading Coach Settle's comments, maybe the offense plans to use the fullback a little more to catch the ball out of the backfield? (In 2008, the Badgers completed one pass to a fullback.)
Although the Badgers haven't posted a quarterback preview yet, ESPN ran a little piece on Chryst's latest quarterback derby -- as basically everyone knows -- the biggest question heading into the Spring. Other than the puzzling statement that Budmayr was the Badgers' biggest quarterback recruit in years (1 year after the higher-rated, Mr. Tennessee Football, Phillips?),* the article seems pretty spot on.
You can find all of UW's Spring rundowns here.
Not to be overlooked, as Scott Tappa noted (as well as the media outlets), Elijah Hodge, Xavier Harris, and James Stallons won't return with the Badgers. Hodge will graduate in May and will forego his 5th year of eligibility in Madison. Harris's back has never sufficiently recovered from injury. His playing days are over, but he's on track to graduate (still on scholarship) next year. Stallons? With Phillips and Budmayr on the younger end of things and Tolzein and Sherer on the older, maybe he just didn't figure to get much playing time. Or maybe it was something else . . . ?
Harris and Hodge will both be missed for the depth they provided. Good for them for taking their education seriously. Both are pretty high profile examples of the injury bug ending bright prospects in football.
* Don't get me wrong, I'm excited about Budmayr's potential, too.
The Chryst Manifesto
Having proven my own limitations as a blogger, what follows is the Chyrst Manifesto, a study of the Badger offense, 2005 to present . . . as a series of jpegs. You should be able to click on each to enlarge and read or print it . . . (ps typos and editing mistakes are included for free!)
Power Running? Studying the Myth
I keep hearing about how the Badgers are a power running team. I'm working on an effort to determine if that's true. Based on the games I've looked at, the Badgers ran nearly 80% of the time on first down in 2008. Sounds like power running.
What I've looked at from 2005 through 2007, the Chryst directed offense ran less than 60% of the time on 1st and ten.
Folks, the quarterback matters.
Much more to come.
What I've looked at from 2005 through 2007, the Chryst directed offense ran less than 60% of the time on 1st and ten.
Folks, the quarterback matters.
Much more to come.
Top 10 Badger Victories
It's the off season, so as good a time as any to recall the top 10 Badger victories . . . of the Alvarez Era (which includes the last three years). Why the Alvarez era? Because that's what I know, what I saw, what I experienced. What I experienced is a key component of my evaluation; feel free to give me yours . . .
Coming in at #10:
October 3, 1992: Wisconsin 20, #12 Ohio State 16. To my mind, this is the game that started it all.
In 1990 Barry Alvarez promised things would be different, but after a 1-10 season (the second in three years) things didn't get off to a great start. Five wins in 1991 were more than the previous three seasons combined, but included only two wins in conference, over fellow cellar-dwellers Minnesota and Northwestern.
In the Fall of 1992 I was a Freshman on campus. Week one featured a respectable 27-10 road loss to #2 -- and defending national (co)champion -- Washington, in the midst of U-Dub's run at the top of the Pac-10. Then two home wins over Bowling Green and Northern Illinois. We were 2-1, but had started the previous season 3-0 with wins over your typical cupcakes before a trip to Ohio State kicked off a 6-game losing streak. Here they were again, #12 Ohio State, ready to ruin our party. I remember sitting in the upper deck with my parents (it was parents' weekend) while the underdog Badgers inexplicably hung on for the win. It didn't translate to immediate success. The next week we lost at Kinnick, and with losses to the likes of Indiana and Northwestern, we finished the year at 5-6 -- again. But it was the start of something. Wisconsin hadn't beaten a ranked team since beating then #3 Ohio state in 1985, and had only beaten two ranked teams in the prior 10 years (ironically, the other one was also Ohio State, in 1984). It was a sign of things to come in the Alvarez Era.
#9: December 28, 2002, Alamo Bowl: Wisconsin 31, #14 Colorado 28 (OT)
7-6 Wisconsin limped into the Alamo Bowl, losing six of their final eight regular season games. In San Antonio they lined up against heavily favored #14 Colorado. Two second-half fumbles gifted Colorado scoring drives of 26 and 17 yards, to take a 28-21 lead. In one of the more remarkable finishes in Badger history, the Badgers were still down 7 with 2:25 to play when they took over at their own 20.
On first down, Brooks Bollinger hit Brandon Williams for 32 yards, but after a loss of 4, two incomplete passes, and a 9-yard penalty, the Badgers faced 4th and 14 at their own 48. Bollinger again went to Williams, this time for 26 yards over the middle to keep their hopes alive. Two more incompletions and on third and ten Bollinger dropped a beautiful pass in stride to Freshman Jonathon Orr . . . who dropped the sure touchdown. On their last, desperate 4th and 10, Bollinger hit Darrin Charles with a 30-yard strike down to the Colorado 1. Bollinger snuck it in from there to tie the game and send it to overtime. In the extra frame, the Badger D pushed the Buffs back, and they missed a 45-yard field goal attempt. Mike Allen then zeroed in a 37-yard kick for the Badger win.
Carrying the rushing load for the Buffs in the 4th quarter? A kid named Brian Calhoun who totalled 16 yards on 9 carries and lost a yard on his only reception.
#8: October 11, 2003: Wisconsin 17, #3 Ohio State 10.
It was an otherwise forgettable year for the 7-6 Badger squad that lost to Auburn in the Outback Bowl, to finish losing five of their last 6, but before the collapse, for one Saturday in October, Bucky rallied for another upset of #3 Ohio State. Ohio State was the returning national champion, but after an afternoon of hard-nosed Big Ten football, Ohio Native Lee Evans took a pass from backup Quarterback Matt Schabert 80 yards for the go-ahead touchdown. Sure, it was the high water mark of an otherwise mediocre season, but it was also an Ohioan plunging the knife into a top-ranked Buckeye team.
#7: October 16, 2004: #10 Wisconsin 20, at #5 Purdue 17.
A battle of Big Ten unbeatens in West Lafayette, Wisconsin was coming off another road win over Ohio State, but the Boilermakers flashed their Heisman hopeful, Kyle Orton. Purdue took a 17-7 lead deep into the 4th quarter when John Stocco capped a 73-yard drive hitting Booker Stanley for a 7-yard score to pull within 3. Purdue took over with 5:23 remaining and started working the clock. 3rd and 2 at the Purdue 38, with 2:49 remaining. Two yards picks up a first down and all but seals the game. Even if they have to punt away, the Boilermakers can taste the win.
Purdue won every statistical category except for turnovers; the last one was the most painful.
Orton takes the snap and rolls to his right on a naked bootleg; he easily has room to pick up the first down to seal the game, and is upended by Scott Starks as he dives for the first down. Before he hits the ground, Badger safety Robert Brooks delivers a blow to the ball, swatting it loose. Starks picks it up and returns it 40 yards for the winning touchdown. This is only the second 7-0 start the Badgers have had since 1912 and the win vaults them to #6 in the country and they reach #4 -- as high a regular season ranking as I can remember -- before a catastrophic loss in East Lansing started a three-game skid to finish the year. Had the season ended better, this game would probably be higher on the list. As it is, it was a huge and thrilling Badger win.
#6: September 30, 1995, Wisconsin 17, at #6 Penn State 9.
Happy Valley is a tough place to play and in 1995 the Badgers were making their first trip to it as a Big Ten destination. Penn State was coming off of a 13-0 season in which they should've had at least a share of the National Championship (with Nebraska); the Nittany Lions hadn't lost since October 1993.
The Badgers made the trip -- and I made it along side them -- at 1-1-1, with a brutal home loss to Colorado and an unsatisfying tie at Stanford. The funny thing about road trips -- especially road trips that happened 13 years ago, is you don't tend to remember the games very well. The Badgers played inspired defense and, if I recall correctly, a 4th quarter touchdown sealed the improbable road upset. Things I remember for certain? We couldn't buy a keg in State College, and we couldn't buy beer on Sunday. Stupid blue laws, but a great win.
It was a tough year for the Badgers. The team would end up 4-5-2, a major letdown after a Rose Bowl win followed by a bowl victory in Tampa, but the win over Penn State was epic. Especially for those of us who were there.
#5: October 2, 1999, Wisconsin 42, at #12 Ohio State 17.
The Buckeyes have been there for us when we've needed them. Coming off the '98 Rose Bowl win with a top 10 preseason ranking, Barry's boys inexplicably lost to Cincinnati, then faltered, as usual, to Michigan. We were 2-2, hitting the road to Columbus, and watching things come apart in a hurry. My boss at the time, and still a good friend, was your typical non-Ohio State alum Buckeye fan. He couldn't wait to ruin my weekend with the Buckeye victory. Not thinking straight -- or remembering past upsets over the Buckeyes -- I laid a beer on the game (not being a betting man). He eagerly accepted.
I was driving north from Tennessee to Chicago that Saturday and the last report I heard was the Buckeyes had taken a 17-0 lead. The weird thing is, I didn't panic. Somehow I retained some confidence. The Badgers rewarded me by running off 42-straight, for a huge road win over a heavily favored opponent. That's all I know about the game. We won. I won a beer, and some pride. Oh, and it vaulted us back into the W column, which eventually led to a 17-9 victory over Stanford in the Rose Bowl.
#4: January 2, 2006, Wisconsin 24, #7 Auburn 10, Capital One Bowl
Near national title contender Auburn. SEC speed. Slow, plodding, boring Wisconsin, who only got into the Capital One Bowl because Ohio State got an at-large bid into the BCS. Poor Barry Alvarez. Still hadn't beaten an SEC team, and was going to go out from his career as the Badger head man a loser. Not. So. Fast.
You want to talk about speed? Brian Calhoun made the Plainsmen look silly. Brandon Williams, Jonathan Orr, and Owen Daniels couldn't be stopped. The depleted Badger front 7 (sure NFL first rounder, Junior OT Joe Thomas played two ways, playing defensive tackle due to the Badger shortages and tearing his ACL during the game) owned Auburn all afternoon. Wisconsin went into the half with a 17-0 lead.
Auburn made it interesting, reeling off 10 straight, but after their touchdown to start the 4th quarter pulled them within 7 at 17-10, John Stocco led a 5-play, 65-yard drive, culminating with a 33-yard Calhoun run to the house. On the ensuing possession, Auburn stalled at the Wisconsin 47 and punted to the Badger 1. They never touched the ball again. The Badgers ground out 98 yards over the remaining 9 minutes and took a knee at the Auburn 2 to finish a dominating 24-10 win. Barry went out appropriately: a winner.
#3: January 1, 1999, #9 Wisconsin 38, #6 UCLA 31, Rose Bowl.
"The worst team ever to play in the Rose Bowl." That was, at least according to Craig James, your 1998 Wisconsin Badgers. It was Ron Dayne's junior year. Mike Samuel was under center. Chris Chambers was an unpolished deep threat. 11-1 notwithstanding, with only a single win over a ranked team (#14 Penn State), Wisconsin wasn't supposed to be in Pasadena. But there we were. Across the field from a legitimate national title contender with Heisman hopeful Cade McKnown and playing in their home stadium. Wisconsin was a 10-point dog.
It wasn't pretty -- the defense gave up 538 yards and 31 points -- but it was enough. The Bruins had no answer for Ron Dayne, who averaged over 9 yards per carry and scored all 4 offensive touchdowns (seen here, here, here, here, and here). Late in the game, with a slight 31-28 lead, Freshman Jamar Fletcher stepped in front of DeShaun Foster on a deep route to midfield. Fletcher made the pick and followed a convoy of blockers to the house, to give the Badgers a 10-point lead with 14 minutes to play. The Badgers held on for the win. Suck it, Craig James.
#2, January 1, 1994, #9 Wisconsin 21, #13 UCLA 16, Rose Bowl
It had been 31 years since our last trip. Wisconsin had never won the Granddaddy of them all. Barry told us he could do it in 5 years, but the Badgers hadn't had a winning season since 1984. This was Barry's fourth year. We were 9-1-1. We partied on State Street when we saw the Badgers beat Sparty in Japan (a home game we gave up for the travel opportunity) after Michigan upset Ohio State (28-0, if I recall). We were going to the Rose Bowl.
I waited in line in the early morning in freezing weather under Camp Randall to get my tickets. One of my buddies got on a plane for the first time to fly out and stay with me in California and to make the 6-hour drive down to Pasadena. We saw friends there we didn't know were going. The Rose Bowl, UCLA's home, was 70% red. It was 80 degrees in Pasadena and -60 in Madison (with the windchill). That's a 140 degree difference, for those of you counting at home. It was just meant to be.
Brent Moss up the middle. You cheered when he got the ball, it didn't matter if it was stopped for no gain. You just knew it was right (158 yards and two touchdowns later, it sure was). Terrell Fletcher changed things up. Lee DeRamus was a deep threat. Joe Panos. Darell Bevell. Jeff Messenger. Ugly beauty in cardinal red.
UCLA's JJ Stokes tore off large chunks of yardage in the middle of the field setting a record for receiving yards, but just as they had all season, the Badgers' lunch-pail defense forced 6 turnovers to hold the Bruins in check.
We were up 14-3 going into the 4th quarter, but a UCLA touchdown pulled them within 4. Then Darrell Bevell rolled out and ran -- for crying out loud, he never ran! -- for a 21-yard touchdown to give us an 11-point lead. UCLA made us sweat with a final push, but the Badgers held at midfield, and the party was on. Wisconsin Badgers, Rose Bowl Champions. Unbelievable.
So what can top that?
#1: October 30, 1993, #21 Wisconsin 13, #24 Michigan 10. Wisconsin football: for real.
Is this really the top game? Better than Rose Bowl wins? Better than upsets of top 5 teams? For me it is. There we were, 6-1, heading to Camp Randall for the first real big test, just a week after a devastating loss to a terrible Minnesota in the Metrodome. We were better than we had been, but after nine years of losing records, were we much better? Big Blue would tell us. And on the night Madison would celebrate Halloween. Always a good party, that night was EPIC.
My memory of the game isn't great. I remember we scored a touchdown and all the students in my area of Camp Randall dog piled. It was amazing. When it happened it just felt like we had finally arrived. That score had been huge. I remember it was tense at the end, but we were confident. Then it ended, and "we" had done it. The Badgers were on the football map. We weren't a mediocre team beating other mediocre teams, we were good. Maybe really good. Maybe, just maybe, Rose Bowl good.
Unfortunately, either the Badger Herald or the Daily Cardinal, I don't remember which, published a big ad, or something of the sort, saying that the students should do what Michigan's Tyrone Wheatley wouldn't do: run all over Camp Randall. After the game, we tried. For one bad reason after another, that caused the Crush. 5 pulseless non-breathers (thank God they all recovered). A dorm-mate of mine from freshman year on the cover of Sports Illustrated crying out for help. We made it down to the field, but came from way over and high up in section L or so. We went around the big mass of people, without any idea what had happened. That night we knew. It seems callous now, but at the time we toasted the injured (75 of them, it turns out) and continued on with our epic party, live band, kegs draining in a hurry.
In the dog pile, my best friend lost his wallet with about $200 in cash in it. Someone turned it into the UW police, who called him on Sunday to let him know they had it. Would you believe the money was still there?
So there it is. I don't really even remember my top game, but I know it was the best. That was the day we arrived. The Alvarez Era to be. #1.
Honorable Mentions:
Coming in at #10:
October 3, 1992: Wisconsin 20, #12 Ohio State 16. To my mind, this is the game that started it all.
In 1990 Barry Alvarez promised things would be different, but after a 1-10 season (the second in three years) things didn't get off to a great start. Five wins in 1991 were more than the previous three seasons combined, but included only two wins in conference, over fellow cellar-dwellers Minnesota and Northwestern.
In the Fall of 1992 I was a Freshman on campus. Week one featured a respectable 27-10 road loss to #2 -- and defending national (co)champion -- Washington, in the midst of U-Dub's run at the top of the Pac-10. Then two home wins over Bowling Green and Northern Illinois. We were 2-1, but had started the previous season 3-0 with wins over your typical cupcakes before a trip to Ohio State kicked off a 6-game losing streak. Here they were again, #12 Ohio State, ready to ruin our party. I remember sitting in the upper deck with my parents (it was parents' weekend) while the underdog Badgers inexplicably hung on for the win. It didn't translate to immediate success. The next week we lost at Kinnick, and with losses to the likes of Indiana and Northwestern, we finished the year at 5-6 -- again. But it was the start of something. Wisconsin hadn't beaten a ranked team since beating then #3 Ohio state in 1985, and had only beaten two ranked teams in the prior 10 years (ironically, the other one was also Ohio State, in 1984). It was a sign of things to come in the Alvarez Era.
#9: December 28, 2002, Alamo Bowl: Wisconsin 31, #14 Colorado 28 (OT)
7-6 Wisconsin limped into the Alamo Bowl, losing six of their final eight regular season games. In San Antonio they lined up against heavily favored #14 Colorado. Two second-half fumbles gifted Colorado scoring drives of 26 and 17 yards, to take a 28-21 lead. In one of the more remarkable finishes in Badger history, the Badgers were still down 7 with 2:25 to play when they took over at their own 20.
On first down, Brooks Bollinger hit Brandon Williams for 32 yards, but after a loss of 4, two incomplete passes, and a 9-yard penalty, the Badgers faced 4th and 14 at their own 48. Bollinger again went to Williams, this time for 26 yards over the middle to keep their hopes alive. Two more incompletions and on third and ten Bollinger dropped a beautiful pass in stride to Freshman Jonathon Orr . . . who dropped the sure touchdown. On their last, desperate 4th and 10, Bollinger hit Darrin Charles with a 30-yard strike down to the Colorado 1. Bollinger snuck it in from there to tie the game and send it to overtime. In the extra frame, the Badger D pushed the Buffs back, and they missed a 45-yard field goal attempt. Mike Allen then zeroed in a 37-yard kick for the Badger win.
Carrying the rushing load for the Buffs in the 4th quarter? A kid named Brian Calhoun who totalled 16 yards on 9 carries and lost a yard on his only reception.
#8: October 11, 2003: Wisconsin 17, #3 Ohio State 10.
It was an otherwise forgettable year for the 7-6 Badger squad that lost to Auburn in the Outback Bowl, to finish losing five of their last 6, but before the collapse, for one Saturday in October, Bucky rallied for another upset of #3 Ohio State. Ohio State was the returning national champion, but after an afternoon of hard-nosed Big Ten football, Ohio Native Lee Evans took a pass from backup Quarterback Matt Schabert 80 yards for the go-ahead touchdown. Sure, it was the high water mark of an otherwise mediocre season, but it was also an Ohioan plunging the knife into a top-ranked Buckeye team.
#7: October 16, 2004: #10 Wisconsin 20, at #5 Purdue 17.
A battle of Big Ten unbeatens in West Lafayette, Wisconsin was coming off another road win over Ohio State, but the Boilermakers flashed their Heisman hopeful, Kyle Orton. Purdue took a 17-7 lead deep into the 4th quarter when John Stocco capped a 73-yard drive hitting Booker Stanley for a 7-yard score to pull within 3. Purdue took over with 5:23 remaining and started working the clock. 3rd and 2 at the Purdue 38, with 2:49 remaining. Two yards picks up a first down and all but seals the game. Even if they have to punt away, the Boilermakers can taste the win.
Purdue won every statistical category except for turnovers; the last one was the most painful.
Orton takes the snap and rolls to his right on a naked bootleg; he easily has room to pick up the first down to seal the game, and is upended by Scott Starks as he dives for the first down. Before he hits the ground, Badger safety Robert Brooks delivers a blow to the ball, swatting it loose. Starks picks it up and returns it 40 yards for the winning touchdown. This is only the second 7-0 start the Badgers have had since 1912 and the win vaults them to #6 in the country and they reach #4 -- as high a regular season ranking as I can remember -- before a catastrophic loss in East Lansing started a three-game skid to finish the year. Had the season ended better, this game would probably be higher on the list. As it is, it was a huge and thrilling Badger win.
#6: September 30, 1995, Wisconsin 17, at #6 Penn State 9.
Happy Valley is a tough place to play and in 1995 the Badgers were making their first trip to it as a Big Ten destination. Penn State was coming off of a 13-0 season in which they should've had at least a share of the National Championship (with Nebraska); the Nittany Lions hadn't lost since October 1993.
The Badgers made the trip -- and I made it along side them -- at 1-1-1, with a brutal home loss to Colorado and an unsatisfying tie at Stanford. The funny thing about road trips -- especially road trips that happened 13 years ago, is you don't tend to remember the games very well. The Badgers played inspired defense and, if I recall correctly, a 4th quarter touchdown sealed the improbable road upset. Things I remember for certain? We couldn't buy a keg in State College, and we couldn't buy beer on Sunday. Stupid blue laws, but a great win.
It was a tough year for the Badgers. The team would end up 4-5-2, a major letdown after a Rose Bowl win followed by a bowl victory in Tampa, but the win over Penn State was epic. Especially for those of us who were there.
#5: October 2, 1999, Wisconsin 42, at #12 Ohio State 17.
The Buckeyes have been there for us when we've needed them. Coming off the '98 Rose Bowl win with a top 10 preseason ranking, Barry's boys inexplicably lost to Cincinnati, then faltered, as usual, to Michigan. We were 2-2, hitting the road to Columbus, and watching things come apart in a hurry. My boss at the time, and still a good friend, was your typical non-Ohio State alum Buckeye fan. He couldn't wait to ruin my weekend with the Buckeye victory. Not thinking straight -- or remembering past upsets over the Buckeyes -- I laid a beer on the game (not being a betting man). He eagerly accepted.
I was driving north from Tennessee to Chicago that Saturday and the last report I heard was the Buckeyes had taken a 17-0 lead. The weird thing is, I didn't panic. Somehow I retained some confidence. The Badgers rewarded me by running off 42-straight, for a huge road win over a heavily favored opponent. That's all I know about the game. We won. I won a beer, and some pride. Oh, and it vaulted us back into the W column, which eventually led to a 17-9 victory over Stanford in the Rose Bowl.
#4: January 2, 2006, Wisconsin 24, #7 Auburn 10, Capital One Bowl
Near national title contender Auburn. SEC speed. Slow, plodding, boring Wisconsin, who only got into the Capital One Bowl because Ohio State got an at-large bid into the BCS. Poor Barry Alvarez. Still hadn't beaten an SEC team, and was going to go out from his career as the Badger head man a loser. Not. So. Fast.
You want to talk about speed? Brian Calhoun made the Plainsmen look silly. Brandon Williams, Jonathan Orr, and Owen Daniels couldn't be stopped. The depleted Badger front 7 (sure NFL first rounder, Junior OT Joe Thomas played two ways, playing defensive tackle due to the Badger shortages and tearing his ACL during the game) owned Auburn all afternoon. Wisconsin went into the half with a 17-0 lead.
Auburn made it interesting, reeling off 10 straight, but after their touchdown to start the 4th quarter pulled them within 7 at 17-10, John Stocco led a 5-play, 65-yard drive, culminating with a 33-yard Calhoun run to the house. On the ensuing possession, Auburn stalled at the Wisconsin 47 and punted to the Badger 1. They never touched the ball again. The Badgers ground out 98 yards over the remaining 9 minutes and took a knee at the Auburn 2 to finish a dominating 24-10 win. Barry went out appropriately: a winner.
#3: January 1, 1999, #9 Wisconsin 38, #6 UCLA 31, Rose Bowl.
"The worst team ever to play in the Rose Bowl." That was, at least according to Craig James, your 1998 Wisconsin Badgers. It was Ron Dayne's junior year. Mike Samuel was under center. Chris Chambers was an unpolished deep threat. 11-1 notwithstanding, with only a single win over a ranked team (#14 Penn State), Wisconsin wasn't supposed to be in Pasadena. But there we were. Across the field from a legitimate national title contender with Heisman hopeful Cade McKnown and playing in their home stadium. Wisconsin was a 10-point dog.
It wasn't pretty -- the defense gave up 538 yards and 31 points -- but it was enough. The Bruins had no answer for Ron Dayne, who averaged over 9 yards per carry and scored all 4 offensive touchdowns (seen here, here, here, here, and here). Late in the game, with a slight 31-28 lead, Freshman Jamar Fletcher stepped in front of DeShaun Foster on a deep route to midfield. Fletcher made the pick and followed a convoy of blockers to the house, to give the Badgers a 10-point lead with 14 minutes to play. The Badgers held on for the win. Suck it, Craig James.
#2, January 1, 1994, #9 Wisconsin 21, #13 UCLA 16, Rose Bowl
It had been 31 years since our last trip. Wisconsin had never won the Granddaddy of them all. Barry told us he could do it in 5 years, but the Badgers hadn't had a winning season since 1984. This was Barry's fourth year. We were 9-1-1. We partied on State Street when we saw the Badgers beat Sparty in Japan (a home game we gave up for the travel opportunity) after Michigan upset Ohio State (28-0, if I recall). We were going to the Rose Bowl.
I waited in line in the early morning in freezing weather under Camp Randall to get my tickets. One of my buddies got on a plane for the first time to fly out and stay with me in California and to make the 6-hour drive down to Pasadena. We saw friends there we didn't know were going. The Rose Bowl, UCLA's home, was 70% red. It was 80 degrees in Pasadena and -60 in Madison (with the windchill). That's a 140 degree difference, for those of you counting at home. It was just meant to be.
Brent Moss up the middle. You cheered when he got the ball, it didn't matter if it was stopped for no gain. You just knew it was right (158 yards and two touchdowns later, it sure was). Terrell Fletcher changed things up. Lee DeRamus was a deep threat. Joe Panos. Darell Bevell. Jeff Messenger. Ugly beauty in cardinal red.
UCLA's JJ Stokes tore off large chunks of yardage in the middle of the field setting a record for receiving yards, but just as they had all season, the Badgers' lunch-pail defense forced 6 turnovers to hold the Bruins in check.
We were up 14-3 going into the 4th quarter, but a UCLA touchdown pulled them within 4. Then Darrell Bevell rolled out and ran -- for crying out loud, he never ran! -- for a 21-yard touchdown to give us an 11-point lead. UCLA made us sweat with a final push, but the Badgers held at midfield, and the party was on. Wisconsin Badgers, Rose Bowl Champions. Unbelievable.
So what can top that?
#1: October 30, 1993, #21 Wisconsin 13, #24 Michigan 10. Wisconsin football: for real.
Is this really the top game? Better than Rose Bowl wins? Better than upsets of top 5 teams? For me it is. There we were, 6-1, heading to Camp Randall for the first real big test, just a week after a devastating loss to a terrible Minnesota in the Metrodome. We were better than we had been, but after nine years of losing records, were we much better? Big Blue would tell us. And on the night Madison would celebrate Halloween. Always a good party, that night was EPIC.
My memory of the game isn't great. I remember we scored a touchdown and all the students in my area of Camp Randall dog piled. It was amazing. When it happened it just felt like we had finally arrived. That score had been huge. I remember it was tense at the end, but we were confident. Then it ended, and "we" had done it. The Badgers were on the football map. We weren't a mediocre team beating other mediocre teams, we were good. Maybe really good. Maybe, just maybe, Rose Bowl good.
Unfortunately, either the Badger Herald or the Daily Cardinal, I don't remember which, published a big ad, or something of the sort, saying that the students should do what Michigan's Tyrone Wheatley wouldn't do: run all over Camp Randall. After the game, we tried. For one bad reason after another, that caused the Crush. 5 pulseless non-breathers (thank God they all recovered). A dorm-mate of mine from freshman year on the cover of Sports Illustrated crying out for help. We made it down to the field, but came from way over and high up in section L or so. We went around the big mass of people, without any idea what had happened. That night we knew. It seems callous now, but at the time we toasted the injured (75 of them, it turns out) and continued on with our epic party, live band, kegs draining in a hurry.
In the dog pile, my best friend lost his wallet with about $200 in cash in it. Someone turned it into the UW police, who called him on Sunday to let him know they had it. Would you believe the money was still there?
So there it is. I don't really even remember my top game, but I know it was the best. That was the day we arrived. The Alvarez Era to be. #1.
Honorable Mentions:
- 1993, 41-20 over Michigan State in Japan to put us in that first Rose Bowl
- 1997, 13-10 upset over #12 Iowa
- 1998, 24-3 over #13 Penn state to put us in the Rose Bowl against UCLA
- 1999, 41-3 shellacking of Iowa, which is always nice, plus Dayne set the NCAA D-1 rushing record
- 2000, Rose Bowl win, 17-9, over Stanford. They may actually have been the worst team ever to play in the Rose Bowl and we played down to their level. At least that's always how I've seen it.
- 2005, 38-34 at Minnesota, Casillas improbably blocks a punt in the final minute to give Barry one last victory over the Gophers and one last chance to carry the axe.
- 2007, Capital One Bowl win, 17-14, over Arkansas. Big win, but probably the worst feeling win I can remember; the second half was just brutal to watch.
2009 Depth and Recruiting
News is we just landed a second Conor O'Neal from Florida (ok, the first is Conor "O'Neill"). O'Neal is a defensive tackle, O'Neill is a weakside linebacker. That's just weird.
I'm no recruiting guru, but I am interested in what our team will look like in 2009; that relates to the Badgers' biggest recruiting needs. Unfortunately, as I look at the 2009 class (as Scout and Rivals report it), I'm not filled with a sense of optimism. That isn't to say we aren't bringing in great kids -- I'm sure we are. The problem I see is what positions we aren't back filling.
Here are my projected depth charts, first the offense. The number corresponds to the year of eligibility the player is in (4 = senior, whether 4th or 5th year, 1 = freshman, which in this case would be redshirt, as all of these players were on the roster in 2008). An asterisk means the player was rated a 4-star recruit, and two means a 5-star (only Oglesby). After the first two players listed (except at TE down to Byrne, the WR position with Jones and halfback with Ewing), it's not even guesswork, it's more just putting the players somewhere on the list.
At quarterback I have Phillips or Scherer, and I'm handicapping Phillips to take the starting role. Jones was recruited as a linebacker, but listed as a running back last season. Given his size, and our lack of fullbacks, I'm projecting him as a fullback. That's pure guesswork. The dotted lines around the fullback position indicate that I expect to see more two tight end or three wide receiver sets based on our lack of fullbacks and our depth at TE and WR. Putting a healthy Kendricks out there with Graham has to be enticing to Chryst. Likewise, using Gilreath in the slot, with Anderson and Toon on the outside also looks pretty good (or one of the other guys, maybe a healthy Jefferson -- I have Toon as the starter over Jefferson because I wonder about Kyle's ability to play post-concussions). So, not much use of the fullback for 2009. And even with Hill leaving, tailback looks fine with Clay, then Brown, Ewing, and Smith. Preisler isn't likely to see the field in that role.
At quarterback I have Phillips or Scherer, and I'm handicapping Phillips to take the starting role. Jones was recruited as a linebacker, but listed as a running back last season. Given his size, and our lack of fullbacks, I'm projecting him as a fullback. That's pure guesswork. The dotted lines around the fullback position indicate that I expect to see more two tight end or three wide receiver sets based on our lack of fullbacks and our depth at TE and WR. Putting a healthy Kendricks out there with Graham has to be enticing to Chryst. Likewise, using Gilreath in the slot, with Anderson and Toon on the outside also looks pretty good (or one of the other guys, maybe a healthy Jefferson -- I have Toon as the starter over Jefferson because I wonder about Kyle's ability to play post-concussions). So, not much use of the fullback for 2009. And even with Hill leaving, tailback looks fine with Clay, then Brown, Ewing, and Smith. Preisler isn't likely to see the field in that role.
That's all well and good. But the hole is obvious: offensive guards. Who will be on the 2-deep? You see that OL RSF box? Offensive line, redshirt freshman. Only Garner was recruited, and at tackle. We have good tackles on the two-deep, but we aren't exactly stacked there. Garner will likely need to stay there and will probably make the 2-deep at some point in 2009 (if someone gets injured), or if not, in 2010. So, no players recruited who are in line to play guard. Current will be the go-to guy, assuming Moffitt stays healthy, but we still need another (and should have two or more). And who's on the recruiting chart for the 2009 class (in any case notoriously a difficult position to start as a true-freshman)? Ryan Croy, listed at 270. Does one of the tackle recruits switch over (both are listed a touch over 300)? One of the defensive tackles? Only the most recent O'Neal has the size and it doesn't look like he's projected anywhere but on defense. Burge and Cromwell, two players not "signed," tipped the scales just over 300 pounds last season (or so says the roster), so we should probably expect them to fill in those guard positions on the two-deep. Nonetheless, our line looks to be dangerously thin in 2009.
The less urgent concern is at wide receiver. We have a lot right now, but most are juniors and seniors, so we need to develop depth. Again, unfortunately, the 2009 recruiting class doesn't look great. We currently have one wide receiver in it (Jeff Duckworth). Next year we better bring in a bunch, or we'll be really thin in 2011.
What about the defense?
I'm surprised to see that tackle doesn't look bad at all. If Grimes, Hoey, or Konz prove worthy, we're in pretty good shape there. Likewise for defensive end (especially if Westphal lives up to his billing). After the injuries we suffered to our touted defensive line recruits over the last few years, it looks like we're finally healthy there again. We have an embarrassment of riches at corner (and a lot of those guys seem to have plenty of upside). Although I'd like to assume some of those guys might fill in at safety, they don't appear to have safety size -- at least not when they were listed on the '08 roster. Nonetheless, we're in pretty good shape at safety in the short run, with two solid players at each position, and two more previous recruits waiting in the wings (which is good, since we lose 3 or the 4 safeties on the present 2-deep for 2010). Middle linebacker looks fine, especially if Rouse turns out, but on the outside? Pretty thin. Not desperate like the offensive line, but thin.
In our present recruiting class we only have three players projected at linebacker, two on the outside. Fortunately one of them is the other Conor O'Neill, but he's pretty small to step right in and play. A.J. Fenton, one of our bigger name recruits, is closer to playing weight (but still not there). It used to be, under Alvarez, all the extra running back recruits we brought in would switch to linebacker (or at least that was the rumor, and what one of them who was my classmate told me). But we don't have a huge number of running backs around for that, and Dex Jones switched the other way last season. Everywhere else on the defense we seem to have pretty good depth spread out by class, but at linebacker, we're in need. If we don't get them this year, we need to get them in 2010.
We're still a few weeks from signing day, so we'll see . . .
Hill to the NFL?
Potrykus, at the Journal Sentinel, is reporting PJ Hill will likely declare for the NFL draft.
edit: confirmation that he will declare for the draft.
So? Hill has been very productive for the Badgers, and will leave, whether this year or next, with the 3rd most yards in Badger history, behind Anthony Davis and Ron Dayne. His redshirt-freshman year he was a freshman all-American. So, we should be sad, right? That's the thing, I'm having a hard time getting too upset about this. When Calhoun left, that sucked. Another year with him would've been outstanding (that would've been Hill's redshirt year). Hill? I'm not so sure.
John Clay has really made strides and on talent and running ability, should get the bulk of the carries. I'm sure Hill has a better sense of blocking schemes and such, but towards the end of the year it was more and more evident that wasn't going to be enough to keep Clay out of the backfield. Moreover, Zach Brown's potential remains untapped, and as long as Clay and Hill split carries, Brown is relegated to a passing-down back, which sucks for him. Brown is a strong runner with good speed and more patient reading his blocks than either Clay or Hill (not surprising, it's harder for him to just run guys over since he gives up 30-40 pounds to them). He deserves more carries. Hill leaving opens up that opportunity for him, while kiving Brady Ewing time to develop.
Unlike 2007 and 2008, we are developing depth in the backfield again, at least at the tailback position, so the potential loss of Hill is less damaging than it would've been last season. Frankly, I don't think this will mean a drop in production from the tailbacks.
As for Hill in the NFL? I wonder what he's hearing. What I see is a big, serviceable college back, without top-end speed or great moves, who is pretty durable, but that's all. Badger detractors would call him a "system back" and I'm not sure that's wrong. Is that really what the NFL is looking for? If Darius Walker (three-year starter at Notre Dame, including the tw0 BCS appearances) didn't get drafted, I could see the same thing happening to Hill. I don't know, it just seems like a bad move for Hill. Maybe not so much for the Badgers.
That's probably not very nice, but it's how I see it.
edit: confirmation that he will declare for the draft.
So? Hill has been very productive for the Badgers, and will leave, whether this year or next, with the 3rd most yards in Badger history, behind Anthony Davis and Ron Dayne. His redshirt-freshman year he was a freshman all-American. So, we should be sad, right? That's the thing, I'm having a hard time getting too upset about this. When Calhoun left, that sucked. Another year with him would've been outstanding (that would've been Hill's redshirt year). Hill? I'm not so sure.
John Clay has really made strides and on talent and running ability, should get the bulk of the carries. I'm sure Hill has a better sense of blocking schemes and such, but towards the end of the year it was more and more evident that wasn't going to be enough to keep Clay out of the backfield. Moreover, Zach Brown's potential remains untapped, and as long as Clay and Hill split carries, Brown is relegated to a passing-down back, which sucks for him. Brown is a strong runner with good speed and more patient reading his blocks than either Clay or Hill (not surprising, it's harder for him to just run guys over since he gives up 30-40 pounds to them). He deserves more carries. Hill leaving opens up that opportunity for him, while kiving Brady Ewing time to develop.
Unlike 2007 and 2008, we are developing depth in the backfield again, at least at the tailback position, so the potential loss of Hill is less damaging than it would've been last season. Frankly, I don't think this will mean a drop in production from the tailbacks.
As for Hill in the NFL? I wonder what he's hearing. What I see is a big, serviceable college back, without top-end speed or great moves, who is pretty durable, but that's all. Badger detractors would call him a "system back" and I'm not sure that's wrong. Is that really what the NFL is looking for? If Darius Walker (three-year starter at Notre Dame, including the tw0 BCS appearances) didn't get drafted, I could see the same thing happening to Hill. I don't know, it just seems like a bad move for Hill. Maybe not so much for the Badgers.
That's probably not very nice, but it's how I see it.
Someone Else Notices Zach Brown
Zach Brown is one of my favorite Badgers. He didn't come in with the fanfare that John Clay did, but, arriving at the same time, he's actually done far more than Clay to help Wisconsin win.
Anyway, Potrykus, at the Journal Sentinel gave him a shout yesterday in his Second Look column:
There's more to running back than carrying the ball, and Brown is the Badgers' best in the supporting role. He's also darned good with it (among other things, he reads his blocks):
2008
through Illinois (carries, yards, average):
Hill, P.J.: 134, 613, 4.6
Clay, John: 90, 480, 5.3
Brown,
Zach: 43, 239, 5.6
Also, remember true-frosh Brown in
2007, filling in for an injured PJ:
at Minnesota: 29 for 250, 8.9 ypc
vs. Michigan: 27 for 108, 4.0 ypc
at Ohio State: 20 for 63, 3.2 ypc (not great, but Clay and Hill nowhere to be found)
Anyway, Potrykus, at the Journal Sentinel gave him a shout yesterday in his Second Look column:
The debate among UW fans regarding UW's tailback rotation too often involves only junior P.J.
Hill and redshirt freshman John Clay.
Sophomore Zach Brown, who seems to do just about everything well, showed his value on UW's last scoring drive.
The Badgers faced third and 5 from their 25 on the third play of the drive. Sherer dropped back to pass and Illinois blitzed two linebackers, Martez Wilson and Brit Miller.
Wilson came up the middle and was picked up by center John Moffitt. Miller looped behind Wilson and came free between Moffitt and left guard Andy Kemp.
Brown, who was lined up slightly off Moffitt's right shoulder, saw Miller's path and slid to his left. Brown lunged at Miller and got enough of him to give Sherer time and a throwing lane to complete a 9-yard pass to tight end Garrett Graham for a first down.
Brown's smarts and his ability to block helped keep alive a drive that ended seven plays later with Sherer hitting David Gilreath for an 8-yard touchdown.
There's more to running back than carrying the ball, and Brown is the Badgers' best in the supporting role. He's also darned good with it (among other things, he reads his blocks):
2008
through Illinois (carries, yards, average):
Hill, P.J.: 134, 613, 4.6
Clay, John: 90, 480, 5.3
Brown,
Zach: 43, 239, 5.6
Also, remember true-frosh Brown in
2007, filling in for an injured PJ:
at Minnesota: 29 for 250, 8.9 ypc
vs. Michigan: 27 for 108, 4.0 ypc
at Ohio State: 20 for 63, 3.2 ypc (not great, but Clay and Hill nowhere to be found)
Edit: Potrykus isn't the only one. Another Badger blogger, over at Camp Lambeau, noticed another key play from Zach this weekend: http://camplambeau.blogspot.com/2008/10/wisconsin-v-illinois-one-moment.html
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