See ya in Columbus, suckas!
Cannot wait for this game. Should be a close fought, slugfest.
I wrote some more here.
On Wisconsin!!
Showing posts with label preview. Show all posts
Showing posts with label preview. Show all posts
Keys to Sparty
Both teams will pass well against soft opposing defenses, but neither will make it through the entire game without mistakes in the passing games (drops, misses, INTs). The team that wins is the team that establishes the run and is able to control possession in the 4th quarter.
MSU has the better linebackers, but I think the Badgers have a better defensive line. Moreover, the Badgers offensive line is, I think, a better run-blocking line (though retarded in progress due to injuries). Finally, I'm confident the Badgers have the better tailbacks.
Slight edge to the Badgers.
BUT . . .
It could be wet tomorrow. Turnovers?
While the Badgers have the better +/- (+2 vs. even), we have also put the ball on the carpet much more than MSU (it's just that we've caused more turnovers, too). In a wet game ball security could be the determinative factor. That worries me. A lot.
PS. For those curious about my tepid enthusiasm for the Badgers on this one, look no further than Scott Tappa's write up this morning: http://badgercentric.blogspot.com/2009/09/2008-revisited-game-4-and-michigan.html
MSU has the better linebackers, but I think the Badgers have a better defensive line. Moreover, the Badgers offensive line is, I think, a better run-blocking line (though retarded in progress due to injuries). Finally, I'm confident the Badgers have the better tailbacks.
Slight edge to the Badgers.
BUT . . .
It could be wet tomorrow. Turnovers?
While the Badgers have the better +/- (+2 vs. even), we have also put the ball on the carpet much more than MSU (it's just that we've caused more turnovers, too). In a wet game ball security could be the determinative factor. That worries me. A lot.
PS. For those curious about my tepid enthusiasm for the Badgers on this one, look no further than Scott Tappa's write up this morning: http://badgercentric.blogspot.com/2009/09/2008-revisited-game-4-and-michigan.html
Michigan State Prediction
I fear a two-score loss, but see a win, 26-24.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/259692-wounded-warriors-michigan-state-at-wisconsin
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/259692-wounded-warriors-michigan-state-at-wisconsin
Why I've Decided To Overlook Wofford
That's just how it is. I'm overlooking Wofford. I have the September 26 date with Sparty circled. This weekend? Meh.
You can't overlook anyone, right? I can, and I will. I hope the Badgers don't.
And that's the thing. They won't. I'm fairly confident the Badgers have a 1-point escape over Cal Poly seared in their collective memory. And thus, the triple option will die a quick death at Camp Randall.
How did I get there?
The triple option works for teams like the academies and FCS squads because so few teams employ it. So you have one week a year to prepare for this crazy offense that just doesn't look like anything anyone else on your schedule is doing it.
But that's not all. The other thing that inevitably happens (and this should sound familiar) is that the BCS squad underestimates its competition. Those little Cadets/Middies, or Mustangs, as the case may be (or Terriers, sure, Terriers, too), the BCS squad just knows they will physically dominate them. (This is also what makes Paul Johnson's Georgia Tech such an interesting experiment; they don't have any drop off in talent and size.)
Then they don't. That scrappy, undersized teams comes out, survives the punch in the mouth, and starts scoring points. About the second quarter the BCS guys looks up at the score board, see they are really losing this game, and start taking their week-long coaching and preparation seriously.
And normally the BCS squad comes back and wins. But sometimes they need a kicker to miss three extra points to get there.
And that's where this year is different. The Badgers won't spend any time overlooking the Terriers. They don't want a repeat of Cal Poly and should come out in the first quarter to prove it.
Oh, and the Terriers' best back is out with an injury.
So anyway, I'll watch the game, but I'm overlooking it because I know our squad isn't. Go Badgers.
You can't overlook anyone, right? I can, and I will. I hope the Badgers don't.
And that's the thing. They won't. I'm fairly confident the Badgers have a 1-point escape over Cal Poly seared in their collective memory. And thus, the triple option will die a quick death at Camp Randall.
How did I get there?
The triple option works for teams like the academies and FCS squads because so few teams employ it. So you have one week a year to prepare for this crazy offense that just doesn't look like anything anyone else on your schedule is doing it.
But that's not all. The other thing that inevitably happens (and this should sound familiar) is that the BCS squad underestimates its competition. Those little Cadets/Middies, or Mustangs, as the case may be (or Terriers, sure, Terriers, too), the BCS squad just knows they will physically dominate them. (This is also what makes Paul Johnson's Georgia Tech such an interesting experiment; they don't have any drop off in talent and size.)
Then they don't. That scrappy, undersized teams comes out, survives the punch in the mouth, and starts scoring points. About the second quarter the BCS guys looks up at the score board, see they are really losing this game, and start taking their week-long coaching and preparation seriously.
And normally the BCS squad comes back and wins. But sometimes they need a kicker to miss three extra points to get there.
And that's where this year is different. The Badgers won't spend any time overlooking the Terriers. They don't want a repeat of Cal Poly and should come out in the first quarter to prove it.
Oh, and the Terriers' best back is out with an injury.
So anyway, I'll watch the game, but I'm overlooking it because I know our squad isn't. Go Badgers.
Fresno State, in Short
31-17, Badgers.
I've got a little more over here, but here's Fresno State in brief:
(1) Stop the run up the middle; contain the edges.
(2) Improve our running game to manage the clock (though rotating eight defensive lineman will help regardless).
(3) Improve in the kicking game.
(4) Stay out of the infirmiry.
Fresno State is pretty good, but Wisconsin is better. Put a stamp on the Bulldogs, a good tune-up for Sparty in two weeks.
Check the Bulldog Bounce to see what the Bulldogs think about this game (it's interesting).
I've got a little more over here, but here's Fresno State in brief:
(1) Stop the run up the middle; contain the edges.
(2) Improve our running game to manage the clock (though rotating eight defensive lineman will help regardless).
(3) Improve in the kicking game.
(4) Stay out of the infirmiry.
Fresno State is pretty good, but Wisconsin is better. Put a stamp on the Bulldogs, a good tune-up for Sparty in two weeks.
Check the Bulldog Bounce to see what the Bulldogs think about this game (it's interesting).
Honestly? 9-3.
Struggling quarterback? Check.
New front seven? Check.
Nine-win season? Yeah, I think so.
Now, I'm a glass 3/4 full kind of guy, so it's always worth taking me with a grain or two of salt, but there's no reason this Badger team can't win nine games. The schedule is weak, and more than anything else people are overanalyzing last season.
It sucked. It happens. Get over it.
Brass tacks:
NIU is a decent MAC team and will put up a fight. But their defensive line and linebackers won't be able to handle our rushing game. 1-0.
Fresno State will throw a lot of runs at our front seven, but they aren't as good as they were last year, and our offense should be better than it was last year, on the running game alone. 2-0.
Wofford is a decent FCS team. Period. 3-0.
Michigan State -- hmm. This game is a toss up. It's in Madison. That's good. They have a new quarterback and a new running back. That's good. It's the week after they play a big game (also on the road) against Notre Dame. That's good. They don't have any more talent than we do. That's good. They are a well-coached team. That's bad. Toss up, but I lean win, and I don't think that's a big stretch. 4-0.
First road trip, to Minnesota. Sure, they return a whole bunch of folks and they'll be anxious for this game to showcase their new home. Good people, watch their last five games last season. They are an ok team, not any more than that. The only reason the game last season was close was poor ball security on the Badgers part. 5-0 (yes, this revises my earlier thoughts on this game).
Ohio State: 5-1.
Iowa: 5-2.
Purdue: 6-2.
Indiana: 8-2. Just kidding. 7-2.
Michigan: they will be a decent team by the time this game comes around, but still playing with a true-freshman quarterback (no, Sheridan won't be in the rotation by this time), no more than a decent offensive line, it's in Madison, and we won't have another epic collapse. We'll have to work for it, but 8-2.
Northwestern. Damn. Bielema hasn't proven to be very good on the road and their defense will handle our running game. While they aren't a great team, they are a good team. 8-3.
Finally, Hawaii. June Jones is gone. This team isn't that good. 9-3.
Basically, I'm finding myself not buying into Minnesota and thinking we'll split MSU and Northwestern. I think MSU is a little overrated right now. They have a couple of big holes to fill, and it's not like they are USC.
This Badger team should have a potent, if run-heavy, offense, and a decent defense. Not a great team, but a pretty good team. Just like 12-1 didn't make Bielema a genius, 7-6 didn't make him a disaster. Solid team, solid record, not a lot of frills.
New front seven? Check.
Nine-win season? Yeah, I think so.
Now, I'm a glass 3/4 full kind of guy, so it's always worth taking me with a grain or two of salt, but there's no reason this Badger team can't win nine games. The schedule is weak, and more than anything else people are overanalyzing last season.
It sucked. It happens. Get over it.
Brass tacks:
NIU is a decent MAC team and will put up a fight. But their defensive line and linebackers won't be able to handle our rushing game. 1-0.
Fresno State will throw a lot of runs at our front seven, but they aren't as good as they were last year, and our offense should be better than it was last year, on the running game alone. 2-0.
Wofford is a decent FCS team. Period. 3-0.
Michigan State -- hmm. This game is a toss up. It's in Madison. That's good. They have a new quarterback and a new running back. That's good. It's the week after they play a big game (also on the road) against Notre Dame. That's good. They don't have any more talent than we do. That's good. They are a well-coached team. That's bad. Toss up, but I lean win, and I don't think that's a big stretch. 4-0.
First road trip, to Minnesota. Sure, they return a whole bunch of folks and they'll be anxious for this game to showcase their new home. Good people, watch their last five games last season. They are an ok team, not any more than that. The only reason the game last season was close was poor ball security on the Badgers part. 5-0 (yes, this revises my earlier thoughts on this game).
Ohio State: 5-1.
Iowa: 5-2.
Purdue: 6-2.
Indiana: 8-2. Just kidding. 7-2.
Michigan: they will be a decent team by the time this game comes around, but still playing with a true-freshman quarterback (no, Sheridan won't be in the rotation by this time), no more than a decent offensive line, it's in Madison, and we won't have another epic collapse. We'll have to work for it, but 8-2.
Northwestern. Damn. Bielema hasn't proven to be very good on the road and their defense will handle our running game. While they aren't a great team, they are a good team. 8-3.
Finally, Hawaii. June Jones is gone. This team isn't that good. 9-3.
Basically, I'm finding myself not buying into Minnesota and thinking we'll split MSU and Northwestern. I think MSU is a little overrated right now. They have a couple of big holes to fill, and it's not like they are USC.
This Badger team should have a potent, if run-heavy, offense, and a decent defense. Not a great team, but a pretty good team. Just like 12-1 didn't make Bielema a genius, 7-6 didn't make him a disaster. Solid team, solid record, not a lot of frills.
The Problem With Potential
The Badgers have a big decision to make (again) at quarterback. It's no secret that Chryst and Bielema have said if the competition is close this fall, they will go with the guy with more upside -- the younger guy who will have more time to develop. That's a not-so-subtle nod to Curt Phillips.
Indeed, every report out of practice this week indicates Phillips is the guy (Adam Hoge says Phillips took over 60% of the snaps yesterday). Jeff Potrykus (Milwaukee Journal Sentinel) hedged and said maybe the staff knows what Sherer brings to the table, and they are just trying to evaluate where the other guys are. Maybe. Probably not (the coaches provided all the clues needed to connect the dots prior to the Donovan and Evridge decisions, I have to assume the same is true this year).
According to those practice reports, while Dustin Sherer still makes bad decisions, Phillips is still "erratic" and also throws picks (to quote Potrykus this week: "Phillips still isn't a polished passer. Nevertheless, more often than not the ball arrives on time and in a place that allows the receiver to make a play." [In a different article] "However, [Phillips'] throwing was erratic."). Based on these reviews, it sounds as though the coaches are implementing the above theory: if it's close, go with the guy still developing. So here we go.
Generally I don't disagree with the theory: Phillips will continue getting better, so let's go with him rather than someone who's likely already peaked (or near it). The problem comes when we're in a tight game -- maybe down a score -- and Phillips has been playing badly: throwing incompletions and picks, trying to do too much with his feet while our best receivers in 5 or more years languish unused. Do you put someone else in?
With all the talk about Scott Tolzein being a safe #2, wouldn't you rather have the guy who has the bigger arm and the potential for bigger plays lead you back (not to mention 7 career starts): you know, like the strikes to David Gilreath in last year's Illinois game and Isaac Anderson in the Minnesota game? Do the Badgers then effectively end up with a two-quarterback system? That dog don't hunt.Last season when Bielema addressed the quarterback derby he talked about the obligation to go with the guy who gives the best chance of winning today, not next year. If Chryst and Bielema have in the back of their heads that maybe Sherer is really that guy, and not Phillips, will they be too quick to give Phillips the hook? We can't have that.
Now, I've been a Sherer proponent, but the chorus is pretty loud that he hasn't made the strides the Badgers need him to. Assuming that's the case (and the coaches and folks attending practice know better than me), then it's time for someone else.The coaches are at the practices and want to win even more than I do. I trust they will make the right decision on the quarterback. But that doesn't mean I'm not nervous about it. I think it's next Wednesday that the starter is announced.
Whomever we go with, it's got to be concrete. Period. Can you give a guy the hook if he's awful (see Evridge vs. Penn State)? Yes, but if they have any doubts about their decision it will end badly.
Pick someone and stick with him.
Indeed, every report out of practice this week indicates Phillips is the guy (Adam Hoge says Phillips took over 60% of the snaps yesterday). Jeff Potrykus (Milwaukee Journal Sentinel) hedged and said maybe the staff knows what Sherer brings to the table, and they are just trying to evaluate where the other guys are. Maybe. Probably not (the coaches provided all the clues needed to connect the dots prior to the Donovan and Evridge decisions, I have to assume the same is true this year).
According to those practice reports, while Dustin Sherer still makes bad decisions, Phillips is still "erratic" and also throws picks (to quote Potrykus this week: "Phillips still isn't a polished passer. Nevertheless, more often than not the ball arrives on time and in a place that allows the receiver to make a play." [In a different article] "However, [Phillips'] throwing was erratic."). Based on these reviews, it sounds as though the coaches are implementing the above theory: if it's close, go with the guy still developing. So here we go.
Generally I don't disagree with the theory: Phillips will continue getting better, so let's go with him rather than someone who's likely already peaked (or near it). The problem comes when we're in a tight game -- maybe down a score -- and Phillips has been playing badly: throwing incompletions and picks, trying to do too much with his feet while our best receivers in 5 or more years languish unused. Do you put someone else in?
With all the talk about Scott Tolzein being a safe #2, wouldn't you rather have the guy who has the bigger arm and the potential for bigger plays lead you back (not to mention 7 career starts): you know, like the strikes to David Gilreath in last year's Illinois game and Isaac Anderson in the Minnesota game? Do the Badgers then effectively end up with a two-quarterback system? That dog don't hunt.Last season when Bielema addressed the quarterback derby he talked about the obligation to go with the guy who gives the best chance of winning today, not next year. If Chryst and Bielema have in the back of their heads that maybe Sherer is really that guy, and not Phillips, will they be too quick to give Phillips the hook? We can't have that.
Now, I've been a Sherer proponent, but the chorus is pretty loud that he hasn't made the strides the Badgers need him to. Assuming that's the case (and the coaches and folks attending practice know better than me), then it's time for someone else.The coaches are at the practices and want to win even more than I do. I trust they will make the right decision on the quarterback. But that doesn't mean I'm not nervous about it. I think it's next Wednesday that the starter is announced.
Whomever we go with, it's got to be concrete. Period. Can you give a guy the hook if he's awful (see Evridge vs. Penn State)? Yes, but if they have any doubts about their decision it will end badly.
Pick someone and stick with him.
Through Rose [Bowl] Colored Glasses: Purdue
Still capturing pre-season optimism from our opponents, here is our Purdue preview in their own words, from the good people at Hammer and Rails and Boiled Sports.
Purdue rose from the dead when Joe Tiller took over in 1997 (prior to that 9-3 campaign, Purdue hadn't won more than half their games since 1984. They even parlayed an 8-3 year into a Rose Bowl a few years later. But after the epic 2004 contest with the Badgers in West Lafayette, it was all down hill for the Boilermakers. It's true, they managed 8-win seasons in '06 and '07, but the magic was gone. Tiller finally bailed out last season (his worst at Purdue), to make room for Danny Hope, like Bielema, a hand-picked successor to the coach who put Purdue football back on the map. On to the review . . .
(1) Danny brings new Hope? What's the word on his view of things? More basketball on grass? Needed infusion of new blood, or mistaken, unimaginative inside hire?
Boiled Sports: First, well done on the obligatory “Hope” pun – we can’t help but do this all the time, too. As for Danny, our early thoughts were that it was a marginal hire, more evidence of the program not thinking big, etc. But we’ve gotten to know more about him and he’s intense. He’s demanding. He expects a lot and makes no excuses. We’ve sort of fallen in love with Danny. He’s dreamy. Well, okay, maybe not that great… but we’re impressed thus far. The guy has the right approach, in our opinion, and has many of us excited about a season that really in any other era would be more dreaded than anticipated.
As for what to expect from Coach Hope, it doesn’t sound like he wants to run the ball any more than he has to. We would expect some “pass to set up the run” looks but with an inexperienced receiving corps, he’ll have no choice but to expect a lot out of the running game, too. Balance will be key – and elusive.
H&R: I view it as a needed infusion of energy. One of the biggest unofficial stories around the program the last few years is that Tiller grew tired of all the legwork needed in recruiting. Things got a little soft, and last year’s 4-8 season was the result. Hope gives us a new enthusiasm that the players are picking up on. In my interview with The Daily Gopher I talked about the idea of O.N.E. (Opportunity Now for Everyone) and how the entire team is on board for it. Coach Hope has this team believing it can compete in any game, something we lacked in recent years.
(2) The offense lends itself to big numbers for the quarterback, but Kory Sheets was the bigger star recently: are the faithful excited about Jaycen Taylor, or hoping for unexpectedly big things out of Joey Elliot? Or will one of the younguns force his way in to the starting spot under center?
H&R: A lot of people are comparing Elliott to coach Tiller’s first quarterback, Billy Dicken. Dicken also had little experience and was overcoming a shoulder injury, yet he went on to be an all-Big Ten player in 1997. Elliott has similar skills and background, so who knows. Taylor will likely split the running game with Ralph Bolden, who had a spectacular spring, Dan Dierking, and incoming freshman Al-Terek McBurse. I doubt any of them will put up the numbers Sheets put up, but combined they may be better.
Boiled Sports: You’ll surely see Caleb TerBush gets some snaps under center this season, and don’t be shocked to see some tricks and surprise formats. This offense needs to be creative this season and what better way than to do some kooky stuff? I’d say the faithful are indeed excited about Jaycen Taylor being back. Sure, he tore up his knee, but assuming he’s healthy – which it appears he is – he’s a huge asset to have in that backfield. But, again, Elliott is going to need to keep defenses honest to avoid them stacking the line and pummeling the RB corps.
The buzz is good about Elliott and having a senior leader in there who is a game manager isn’t the worst thing for a team like this.
(3) It feels like for all the high octane, Purdue's spread struggles in the redzone. Is this true, and if so, what is the fix (that you hope to see this season)?
Boiled Sports: That’s probably a fair impression to have, especially in the past year or two. For some inexplicable reason Curtis Painter was never a lock in the red zone the way some of his predecessors were (Orton and Brees, for example, made you feel pretty sure you were getting in there). That said, though, we don’t worry about the spread not being reliable in the red zone – we worry more about the inexperienced players being able to step it up there.
The fix, if there is one, is that boring answer of balance. Everyone likes to watch a passing, exciting team, but for this team to succeed at all, it will need strong running performances in multiple looks coupled with accurate short passes from Elliott and the occasional deep ball. In the red zone, Elliott will need to be able to thread the needle with some zip and also be able to make the decisions needed in D1 college football. Sounds obvious but he’s yet to be relied on to do that.
H&R: My hope is that we have games where we don’t completely abandon the running game. The most frustrating drive I remember seeing came at Hawaii in 2006. We got the ball at the 10 yard line and twice had to overcome 15 yard penalties, but we ended up losing the ball when Painter pitched it off a fullback’s thigh on a first and goal from the two. We basically drove 118 yards and got nothing because we got too fancy instead of powering the ball ahead. I look to see more of that this year, as Frank Halliburton is a dedicated fullback with experience. (4) A few years ago it felt like the Boilermakers rattled off dangerous wide receivers as often as big name quarterbacks; is there anyone who fits that bill this season?H&R: That is the biggest question facing our offense. Keith Smith could be an all-Big Ten talent, but only Aaron Valentin has any other significant playing time. The majority of Valentin’s receiving yards came on one play against Indiana last season. WE have several of our Florida freshmen coming in who will compete for playing time at receiver, as well as converted DB’s Royce Adams and Tommie Thomas. Your guess is as good as mine as to who will actually step up.Boiled Sports: Keith Carlos, Eric Williams and Gary Bush. Boilermaker fans should get to know those names. We’re not sure they’ll be the kinds of wide receivers you’re referring to but they should be impact guys.
(5) 26 points seems like the magic number for Purdue against Wisconsin (and most other teams, too, I think). Purdue is 5-0 against the Alvarez era Badgers -- yes, history began in 1990 as far as this Badger fan is concerned ;-) -- and with the notable exceptions of the Michigan and Northwestern games, the defense looked surprisingly solid last season. Can the Boilermakers win a low-scoring game in Madison this season?
Boiled Sports: Assume you mean 5-0 when scoring 26 points or more [ed.: actually, I screwed that all up: in all five wins Purdue scored 26 or more, but they were actually 5-1-1 when scoring 26 or more, and 0-7 when scoring fewer than 26]. Which seems like a reasonable assumption against most teams – 26 points is a lot and any decent defense should be able to hold that more often than not. In fact, if the Boilermakers score 26 a game this year, we’ll be expecting a good bowl game. But as to your question, against the Badgers, yes, we think it’s possible that Purdue could win a close, low-scoring affair in Madison. Possible, but not likely. Let’s put it this way – it needs to be a low-scoring, defensive affair if Purdue hopes to win this game at all. We’re of the opinion that Wisconsin is on a downward trend under Bielema, but their defense usually brings the pain and Camp Randall is a tough place to win. Of course, the Boilers last two wins over the Badgers were in Madison so, really, who the hell knows?
H&R: Absolutely! I think for the first time in years we will be a much more run-oriented team. As a result, we will have longer drives and keep our improving offense rested. I am encouraged that aside from the games you mentioned and the embarrassing performance against the run at Notre Dame, the defense wasn’t that bad. It did a lot of bending without breaking against a very good Oregon team. Against Ohio State a fantastic defensive performance was wasted by no offense and one special teams mistake.
(6) The 4-8 record last year hides several pretty darned good games against very good teams (Oregon, Penn State, and road games at Ohio State and Iowa). Was the team just always one play away, or were those teams content to run out the clock (clearly not Oregon, who needed last minute heroics, if I recall correctly). Do you take anything away from that heading into this season (Steele always points out close wins and losses in his previews, I think).
Boiled Sports: That’s a nice thing to say about our boys, but those games you mentioned were an 0-4 effort for the Boilermakers, no matter how close they might have been. They were quite frustrating, actually, because as good as those teams were, Purdue was in all of those games, as you noted. And if Curtis Painter had anywhere NEAR the season he was expected to have, Joe Tiller’s final year goes very differently. The defense came to play last year and has only gotten better, so we’re of course hopeful that the offense can cobble something together and make it an exciting year, where maybe a couple of those close ones and solid defensive efforts actually go our way.
H&R: The Oregon game really set the tone. There were a handful of plays in that game that made a huge difference. If we hold on to win, we would finally have gotten a win over a ranked opponent and it would have given us a ton of momentum. We had Brandon King get an interception with nothing but green grass in front of him only to be chased down from behind. We had to settle for a field goal on that drive. Before halftime, all we needed to do was run out the clock, but Painter threw an awful interception that led to a field goal, making it 20-6 at the half. We also gave up a punt return for a TD and got too conservative in settling for a long field goal to end regulation. We had strong swirling winds that day, but instead of moving closer for a game winner we settled for a 45-yarder. I think if we get that game and Painter doesn’t get hurt against Minnesota we would have had at least 3 more wins.
(7) The epic 2004 game (you know the one) ended up being the high-water mark for both teams this decade (at least as far as national rankings go), but your boys fell a little harder. What's it going to take for Purdue to start challenging the top of the conference again?
H&R: Time. I am encouraged by the types of players Hope is bringing in on the recruiting trail. The overall talent level will be much better in two years. I honestly don’t think we’re that far from the rest of the Big Ten right now. I think outside of Penn State and Ohio State (and we don’t play Penn State this year) you have a conference full of even teams. Someone can make a big jump that way, so why not us?
Boiled Sports: We’ve discussed among ourselves and on our podcast (and probably other places) the fact that the 2004 Wisconsin game was truly the tipping point for Purdue football. It was Tiller’s best chance at climbing the mountain: no early stumbles, favorable scheduling (toughest games at home), established big-game QB in Orton, and so forth. The 5-0 start, College Gameday in West Lafayette, a night game on national TV with actual national title chase implications and the #5 ranking in the nation. And then a ten point lead in the fourth quarter. Then The Fumble happened and the program was never the same. And we’re not being melodramatic – that was it. The team went into a death spiral, losing their next four games (all of which should have been wins) and Tiller folded. He was a beaten man after that and never seemed to have the same drive and “Cowboy Joe” approach that had gotten them to that point.
Why am I rehashing all of that? Because that’s what we’re up against. The morning of October 16, 2004 was likely the apex of Purdue football as we know it with potential everywhere we looked. And now the challenge is to begin climbing back to where that’s possible. The climb should have begun long ago, but it didn’t and Tiller coasted another four seasons. That seems to have ended now, attitude-wise, and we think Coach Hope has us on the right track. That’s the first step. Next is believing they can compete up there again and there’s no reason to think they can’t at least scare some big guys this year. Recruiting will be critical, especially when you need to get a few 2-3 stars who blossom, catch some breaks, etc. Can it happen? Sure. Will it? Hard to say. At the start of 1997, the concept of being ranked in the top 5 was a pipe dream none of us would dare to openly discuss. And within 7 years, there it was.
(8) The perception is that Purdue is so much a basketball school that you guys have played basketball on grass since 1997; what's something people should know, but don't, about your football program?
Boiled Sports: Well, for one thing, nobody associated with Purdue football has called it “basketball on grass” in about a decade. That was something Tiller said in his earliest days, when discussing the switch in styles that he was unleashing on the rest of the plodding Big Ten. The basketball on grass approach peaked during the Drew Brees years, which ended after the 2000 season. We don’t mind that people perceive the Boilers offense as an exciting thing – but it’s not really basketball on grass anymore. It’s just a spread, like a lot of teams play.
For another thing, while Purdue may be perceived by some as a basketball school, Ross-Ade Stadium is the home of the “Cradle of Quarterbacks.”
H&R: It’s the cradle of quarterbacks, baby! I love basketball first, but Mike Phipps, Bob Griese, Gary Danielson, Len Dawson, Drew Brees, Mark Herrmann, Jim Everett, and Kyle Orton have all made names for themselves at Ross-Ade Stadium.
Finally, does anyone really care about that darn drum?
H&R: I love the drum! When I was a student, they had the 80th anniversary of the drum. One of the original members of the drum crew was still alive and came back for the halftime ceremony. The dude had to be at least 95, yet he still was able to jump and hit the drum. We joked he would be partying at Harry’s after the game. That, and seeing Neil Armstrong hit the drum is very cool.
Boiled Sports: You know, I don’t know why everyone takes shots at the drum, quite frankly. This is like me saying, “Hey, what’s the deal with that tuba in the Wisconsin band?” You’d say, “In the band? What are you talking about? What’s that got to do with football?” And I’d say, “Oh, nothing.” And you’d say, “Yeah…FACE!”
Seriously, the drum is a part of the marching band. If that’s the best thing fans of opponents can come up with to mock, it’s time to hang ‘em up.
Sounds like it's 1-1 in the cares about the drum question; in any case, perhaps it's time to hang up this preview of the Cradle of Quarterbacks, pre-season, 2009.
Purdue rose from the dead when Joe Tiller took over in 1997 (prior to that 9-3 campaign, Purdue hadn't won more than half their games since 1984. They even parlayed an 8-3 year into a Rose Bowl a few years later. But after the epic 2004 contest with the Badgers in West Lafayette, it was all down hill for the Boilermakers. It's true, they managed 8-win seasons in '06 and '07, but the magic was gone. Tiller finally bailed out last season (his worst at Purdue), to make room for Danny Hope, like Bielema, a hand-picked successor to the coach who put Purdue football back on the map. On to the review . . .
(1) Danny brings new Hope? What's the word on his view of things? More basketball on grass? Needed infusion of new blood, or mistaken, unimaginative inside hire?
Boiled Sports: First, well done on the obligatory “Hope” pun – we can’t help but do this all the time, too. As for Danny, our early thoughts were that it was a marginal hire, more evidence of the program not thinking big, etc. But we’ve gotten to know more about him and he’s intense. He’s demanding. He expects a lot and makes no excuses. We’ve sort of fallen in love with Danny. He’s dreamy. Well, okay, maybe not that great… but we’re impressed thus far. The guy has the right approach, in our opinion, and has many of us excited about a season that really in any other era would be more dreaded than anticipated.
As for what to expect from Coach Hope, it doesn’t sound like he wants to run the ball any more than he has to. We would expect some “pass to set up the run” looks but with an inexperienced receiving corps, he’ll have no choice but to expect a lot out of the running game, too. Balance will be key – and elusive.
H&R: I view it as a needed infusion of energy. One of the biggest unofficial stories around the program the last few years is that Tiller grew tired of all the legwork needed in recruiting. Things got a little soft, and last year’s 4-8 season was the result. Hope gives us a new enthusiasm that the players are picking up on. In my interview with The Daily Gopher I talked about the idea of O.N.E. (Opportunity Now for Everyone) and how the entire team is on board for it. Coach Hope has this team believing it can compete in any game, something we lacked in recent years.
(2) The offense lends itself to big numbers for the quarterback, but Kory Sheets was the bigger star recently: are the faithful excited about Jaycen Taylor, or hoping for unexpectedly big things out of Joey Elliot? Or will one of the younguns force his way in to the starting spot under center?
H&R: A lot of people are comparing Elliott to coach Tiller’s first quarterback, Billy Dicken. Dicken also had little experience and was overcoming a shoulder injury, yet he went on to be an all-Big Ten player in 1997. Elliott has similar skills and background, so who knows. Taylor will likely split the running game with Ralph Bolden, who had a spectacular spring, Dan Dierking, and incoming freshman Al-Terek McBurse. I doubt any of them will put up the numbers Sheets put up, but combined they may be better.
Boiled Sports: You’ll surely see Caleb TerBush gets some snaps under center this season, and don’t be shocked to see some tricks and surprise formats. This offense needs to be creative this season and what better way than to do some kooky stuff? I’d say the faithful are indeed excited about Jaycen Taylor being back. Sure, he tore up his knee, but assuming he’s healthy – which it appears he is – he’s a huge asset to have in that backfield. But, again, Elliott is going to need to keep defenses honest to avoid them stacking the line and pummeling the RB corps.
The buzz is good about Elliott and having a senior leader in there who is a game manager isn’t the worst thing for a team like this.
(3) It feels like for all the high octane, Purdue's spread struggles in the redzone. Is this true, and if so, what is the fix (that you hope to see this season)?
Boiled Sports: That’s probably a fair impression to have, especially in the past year or two. For some inexplicable reason Curtis Painter was never a lock in the red zone the way some of his predecessors were (Orton and Brees, for example, made you feel pretty sure you were getting in there). That said, though, we don’t worry about the spread not being reliable in the red zone – we worry more about the inexperienced players being able to step it up there.
The fix, if there is one, is that boring answer of balance. Everyone likes to watch a passing, exciting team, but for this team to succeed at all, it will need strong running performances in multiple looks coupled with accurate short passes from Elliott and the occasional deep ball. In the red zone, Elliott will need to be able to thread the needle with some zip and also be able to make the decisions needed in D1 college football. Sounds obvious but he’s yet to be relied on to do that.
H&R: My hope is that we have games where we don’t completely abandon the running game. The most frustrating drive I remember seeing came at Hawaii in 2006. We got the ball at the 10 yard line and twice had to overcome 15 yard penalties, but we ended up losing the ball when Painter pitched it off a fullback’s thigh on a first and goal from the two. We basically drove 118 yards and got nothing because we got too fancy instead of powering the ball ahead. I look to see more of that this year, as Frank Halliburton is a dedicated fullback with experience. (4) A few years ago it felt like the Boilermakers rattled off dangerous wide receivers as often as big name quarterbacks; is there anyone who fits that bill this season?H&R: That is the biggest question facing our offense. Keith Smith could be an all-Big Ten talent, but only Aaron Valentin has any other significant playing time. The majority of Valentin’s receiving yards came on one play against Indiana last season. WE have several of our Florida freshmen coming in who will compete for playing time at receiver, as well as converted DB’s Royce Adams and Tommie Thomas. Your guess is as good as mine as to who will actually step up.Boiled Sports: Keith Carlos, Eric Williams and Gary Bush. Boilermaker fans should get to know those names. We’re not sure they’ll be the kinds of wide receivers you’re referring to but they should be impact guys.
(5) 26 points seems like the magic number for Purdue against Wisconsin (and most other teams, too, I think). Purdue is 5-0 against the Alvarez era Badgers -- yes, history began in 1990 as far as this Badger fan is concerned ;-) -- and with the notable exceptions of the Michigan and Northwestern games, the defense looked surprisingly solid last season. Can the Boilermakers win a low-scoring game in Madison this season?
Boiled Sports: Assume you mean 5-0 when scoring 26 points or more [ed.: actually, I screwed that all up: in all five wins Purdue scored 26 or more, but they were actually 5-1-1 when scoring 26 or more, and 0-7 when scoring fewer than 26]. Which seems like a reasonable assumption against most teams – 26 points is a lot and any decent defense should be able to hold that more often than not. In fact, if the Boilermakers score 26 a game this year, we’ll be expecting a good bowl game. But as to your question, against the Badgers, yes, we think it’s possible that Purdue could win a close, low-scoring affair in Madison. Possible, but not likely. Let’s put it this way – it needs to be a low-scoring, defensive affair if Purdue hopes to win this game at all. We’re of the opinion that Wisconsin is on a downward trend under Bielema, but their defense usually brings the pain and Camp Randall is a tough place to win. Of course, the Boilers last two wins over the Badgers were in Madison so, really, who the hell knows?
H&R: Absolutely! I think for the first time in years we will be a much more run-oriented team. As a result, we will have longer drives and keep our improving offense rested. I am encouraged that aside from the games you mentioned and the embarrassing performance against the run at Notre Dame, the defense wasn’t that bad. It did a lot of bending without breaking against a very good Oregon team. Against Ohio State a fantastic defensive performance was wasted by no offense and one special teams mistake.
(6) The 4-8 record last year hides several pretty darned good games against very good teams (Oregon, Penn State, and road games at Ohio State and Iowa). Was the team just always one play away, or were those teams content to run out the clock (clearly not Oregon, who needed last minute heroics, if I recall correctly). Do you take anything away from that heading into this season (Steele always points out close wins and losses in his previews, I think).
Boiled Sports: That’s a nice thing to say about our boys, but those games you mentioned were an 0-4 effort for the Boilermakers, no matter how close they might have been. They were quite frustrating, actually, because as good as those teams were, Purdue was in all of those games, as you noted. And if Curtis Painter had anywhere NEAR the season he was expected to have, Joe Tiller’s final year goes very differently. The defense came to play last year and has only gotten better, so we’re of course hopeful that the offense can cobble something together and make it an exciting year, where maybe a couple of those close ones and solid defensive efforts actually go our way.
H&R: The Oregon game really set the tone. There were a handful of plays in that game that made a huge difference. If we hold on to win, we would finally have gotten a win over a ranked opponent and it would have given us a ton of momentum. We had Brandon King get an interception with nothing but green grass in front of him only to be chased down from behind. We had to settle for a field goal on that drive. Before halftime, all we needed to do was run out the clock, but Painter threw an awful interception that led to a field goal, making it 20-6 at the half. We also gave up a punt return for a TD and got too conservative in settling for a long field goal to end regulation. We had strong swirling winds that day, but instead of moving closer for a game winner we settled for a 45-yarder. I think if we get that game and Painter doesn’t get hurt against Minnesota we would have had at least 3 more wins.
(7) The epic 2004 game (you know the one) ended up being the high-water mark for both teams this decade (at least as far as national rankings go), but your boys fell a little harder. What's it going to take for Purdue to start challenging the top of the conference again?
H&R: Time. I am encouraged by the types of players Hope is bringing in on the recruiting trail. The overall talent level will be much better in two years. I honestly don’t think we’re that far from the rest of the Big Ten right now. I think outside of Penn State and Ohio State (and we don’t play Penn State this year) you have a conference full of even teams. Someone can make a big jump that way, so why not us?
Boiled Sports: We’ve discussed among ourselves and on our podcast (and probably other places) the fact that the 2004 Wisconsin game was truly the tipping point for Purdue football. It was Tiller’s best chance at climbing the mountain: no early stumbles, favorable scheduling (toughest games at home), established big-game QB in Orton, and so forth. The 5-0 start, College Gameday in West Lafayette, a night game on national TV with actual national title chase implications and the #5 ranking in the nation. And then a ten point lead in the fourth quarter. Then The Fumble happened and the program was never the same. And we’re not being melodramatic – that was it. The team went into a death spiral, losing their next four games (all of which should have been wins) and Tiller folded. He was a beaten man after that and never seemed to have the same drive and “Cowboy Joe” approach that had gotten them to that point.
Why am I rehashing all of that? Because that’s what we’re up against. The morning of October 16, 2004 was likely the apex of Purdue football as we know it with potential everywhere we looked. And now the challenge is to begin climbing back to where that’s possible. The climb should have begun long ago, but it didn’t and Tiller coasted another four seasons. That seems to have ended now, attitude-wise, and we think Coach Hope has us on the right track. That’s the first step. Next is believing they can compete up there again and there’s no reason to think they can’t at least scare some big guys this year. Recruiting will be critical, especially when you need to get a few 2-3 stars who blossom, catch some breaks, etc. Can it happen? Sure. Will it? Hard to say. At the start of 1997, the concept of being ranked in the top 5 was a pipe dream none of us would dare to openly discuss. And within 7 years, there it was.
(8) The perception is that Purdue is so much a basketball school that you guys have played basketball on grass since 1997; what's something people should know, but don't, about your football program?
Boiled Sports: Well, for one thing, nobody associated with Purdue football has called it “basketball on grass” in about a decade. That was something Tiller said in his earliest days, when discussing the switch in styles that he was unleashing on the rest of the plodding Big Ten. The basketball on grass approach peaked during the Drew Brees years, which ended after the 2000 season. We don’t mind that people perceive the Boilers offense as an exciting thing – but it’s not really basketball on grass anymore. It’s just a spread, like a lot of teams play.
For another thing, while Purdue may be perceived by some as a basketball school, Ross-Ade Stadium is the home of the “Cradle of Quarterbacks.”
H&R: It’s the cradle of quarterbacks, baby! I love basketball first, but Mike Phipps, Bob Griese, Gary Danielson, Len Dawson, Drew Brees, Mark Herrmann, Jim Everett, and Kyle Orton have all made names for themselves at Ross-Ade Stadium.
Finally, does anyone really care about that darn drum?
H&R: I love the drum! When I was a student, they had the 80th anniversary of the drum. One of the original members of the drum crew was still alive and came back for the halftime ceremony. The dude had to be at least 95, yet he still was able to jump and hit the drum. We joked he would be partying at Harry’s after the game. That, and seeing Neil Armstrong hit the drum is very cool.
Boiled Sports: You know, I don’t know why everyone takes shots at the drum, quite frankly. This is like me saying, “Hey, what’s the deal with that tuba in the Wisconsin band?” You’d say, “In the band? What are you talking about? What’s that got to do with football?” And I’d say, “Oh, nothing.” And you’d say, “Yeah…FACE!”
Seriously, the drum is a part of the marching band. If that’s the best thing fans of opponents can come up with to mock, it’s time to hang ‘em up.
Sounds like it's 1-1 in the cares about the drum question; in any case, perhaps it's time to hang up this preview of the Cradle of Quarterbacks, pre-season, 2009.
The 4-week Season
Really, that's what 2009 is shaping up as. As much as NIU, Fresno State, Wofford, and the Rainbow Warriors would have us believe otherwise, we should be 4-0 in those games. Look at the second half of our conference slate: Purdue, Indiana, the once mighty Michigan (at home), and Northwestern. Yeah, Northwestern isn't a given, but those other three? Even in our present devalued state, we're favorites (maybe big favorites) in those games.
As much as the commentor crazies at various places (JSOnline, BadgerBeat, Badger message boards, etc.) want everyone to believe that the Bielema Badgers are the second coming of Morton's Badgers, it's hard to believe they will be. You have to have an awfully negative view of things to believe a team returning this many guys on offense will be that bad.
What that means is the difference between a mediocre season with a decent bowl (7-8 wins) and a solid or even great season comes from those four weeks starting September 26 through October 17. MSU, @ Minnesota, @ Ohio State, Iowa. Last year wasn't all that different, with Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, Iowa all in a row. We went 0-4, and went on to a mediocre bowl with awful results.
This year? Another 4-week season.
I, for one, can't wait for the pre-season.
As much as the commentor crazies at various places (JSOnline, BadgerBeat, Badger message boards, etc.) want everyone to believe that the Bielema Badgers are the second coming of Morton's Badgers, it's hard to believe they will be. You have to have an awfully negative view of things to believe a team returning this many guys on offense will be that bad.
What that means is the difference between a mediocre season with a decent bowl (7-8 wins) and a solid or even great season comes from those four weeks starting September 26 through October 17. MSU, @ Minnesota, @ Ohio State, Iowa. Last year wasn't all that different, with Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, Iowa all in a row. We went 0-4, and went on to a mediocre bowl with awful results.
This year? Another 4-week season.
I, for one, can't wait for the pre-season.
If You Can't Beat 'Em . . .
Since Bielema (and probably most coaches, AD's, etc.) dislikes bloggers so much, it looks like the athletic department is trying to get into the act. This is an aggregator of sorts: linking to stories about the Badgers around the web. No links to any true bloggers yet, though. At minimum I'd vote for BadgerCentric and Bucky's 5th Quarter (ok, and me, too) for football coverage, but I won't hold my breath.
Also, UW opened a Fall Camp headquarters page. It includes the 2009 Fact Book (more or less a media guide -- there's generally a lot of good stuff in these), the present roster, and the current depth chart. Note: starting wide receivers are Isaac Anderson and Gilreath or Toon (I'm betting on Toon); strong safety is listed as Valai or Pleasant; and while Henry has one corner, the other is listed as Brinkley or Devin Smith.
Also, UW opened a Fall Camp headquarters page. It includes the 2009 Fact Book (more or less a media guide -- there's generally a lot of good stuff in these), the present roster, and the current depth chart. Note: starting wide receivers are Isaac Anderson and Gilreath or Toon (I'm betting on Toon); strong safety is listed as Valai or Pleasant; and while Henry has one corner, the other is listed as Brinkley or Devin Smith.
Summer Camp
It's finally time. Hooray! But no singing on the bus, it's time for the Badgers to get down to business. Adam Hoge has a nice camp preview over at Bucky's 5th Quarter, complete with his 10 questions for camp. It's all interesting stuff, but I think the big issues are covered in the first three questions:
(1) What's the quarterback situation;
(2) What's the linebacker situation;
(3) What's the D-line look like?
Carry on . . . and back to my Rose [Bowl] Colored Glasses (in just a few moments . . .)
(1) What's the quarterback situation;
(2) What's the linebacker situation;
(3) What's the D-line look like?
Carry on . . . and back to my Rose [Bowl] Colored Glasses (in just a few moments . . .)
Through Rose Colored Glasses: Northern Illinois
With the season just around the corner, here's our first look at an out-of-conference opponent, and logically, it's our first. The Northern Illinois Huskies, pushovers, right? Probably not.
The Badgers are 10-1 vs. these Huskies, but they gave us a good scare in 2002 with a 3-point loss (24-21). Moreover, they were pretty close last season against Tennessee (admittedely, a down Tennessee, 13-9), and Minnesota (31-27). And it isn't as though they haven't claimed a pelt or two in their time. Their biggest? They were one of three teams to beat Gator Bowl-winning Maryland (#17 final AP) in 2003 (winners over Virginia Tech; other losses to Florida State and Georgia Tech). The biggest name? They brought down Alabama in 2003 (not the world's best Alabama, but it's still the Crimson Tide).
They return their key players on offense and look to improve on last season's close calls. Those people who see NIU and figure we'll waltz in and out of Camp Randall with an easy opening day win should think twice.
Here to preview his squad through the optimism of August (that's what all these Rose Colored Glasses previews are about afterall), is Mike Breese of the Red and Black Attack:
I know you guys run a run-oriented spread with a solid quarterback. What should we know about him? Is there a credible passing threat to go with the run?
RABA: Yes, that's Chandler Harnish that you are talking about. He started as a redshirt freshman last year and performed admirably for a player with minimal experience. Without a full grasp of the offense, Harnish tried to do too much last year. He led the team in rushing with 539 and 4 TDs on the ground, despite going down in week 2 with an ankle injury and returning in game 6 against Miami OH before he was 100%. Those stats are troublesome, because he needs more help around him in the offense. We've got a good stable of running backs returning and a talented, but extremely young group of wide receivers that need to step up this year. Harnish has a much better grasp of the offense this year and made great strides in the off-season to improve his game. Chandler finished with a 8-9 TD to INT ratio last year and that was because we ran a limited offense as he was still learning to play the game full-time. He is also expected to be the first Sophomore captain for the Huskies in over a decade.
What's the view of the defense with all the new starters (7, right?). Do you expect a rebuilding year? Who are the guys you are excited about that we should know about?
RABA: Was that the high-water mark? Absolutely not. Last year NIU was only outgained by 31 ypg in a pair of 4-pt losses to both Minnesota and Tennessee. Our starting QB was out for the Tennessee game and we were still in that game despite not having much of an offense to boot. If Harnish would have started in that game, then that would have been a win in Knoxville. Our fans are starving right now for another season like 2003, when we beat a nationally-ranked Maryland team and Alabama in Tuscaloosa. It's not like we haven't been to the top in the past and it is always our goal to perform and win these games against BCS schools.
This season is interesting, because we are supposed to be a better team than last year. It is only the second year in Coach Kill's tenure, but we have a young team that isn't afraid of anything. NIU was thrown to the wolves last year and its not like we haven't tussled with the big boys before. This year should be interesting, because both Purdue and Wisconsin have been predicted to finish in the middle to bottom-half of the Big 10 by all the pundits out there. Usually we have to face schools we have no chance against like #4 Michigan in 2005 or #1 Ohio State in 2006. It's our best chance to beat one, if not two Big 10/BCS schools in a long, long time.
What's the game plan to win at Madison at night? Do you see it happening?
RABA: The gameplan will be the typical Coach Kill game plan: run the ball, run the ball some more then some play action. If I'm not mistaken, this is the best strategy because the Badgers have some pretty big losses on both the DL and LB units this year. Then on defense um...stop John Clay? Is that even possible? I think we have some players to match up with Garrett Graham, but I think our CBs might have some trouble keeping Gilreath, Toon & whoever else in check for most of the game.
Our last (and only) win against a Big 10 team? Wisconsin in 1988. I'm sure a bunch of the players want revenge for that mauling back in 2007 when half our team was injured. Do I see a win happening? I think it will be a lot closer than people are anticipating.
I agree, it will be closer than people on our side of the border want to believe.
The Badgers are 10-1 vs. these Huskies, but they gave us a good scare in 2002 with a 3-point loss (24-21). Moreover, they were pretty close last season against Tennessee (admittedely, a down Tennessee, 13-9), and Minnesota (31-27). And it isn't as though they haven't claimed a pelt or two in their time. Their biggest? They were one of three teams to beat Gator Bowl-winning Maryland (#17 final AP) in 2003 (winners over Virginia Tech; other losses to Florida State and Georgia Tech). The biggest name? They brought down Alabama in 2003 (not the world's best Alabama, but it's still the Crimson Tide).
They return their key players on offense and look to improve on last season's close calls. Those people who see NIU and figure we'll waltz in and out of Camp Randall with an easy opening day win should think twice.
Here to preview his squad through the optimism of August (that's what all these Rose Colored Glasses previews are about afterall), is Mike Breese of the Red and Black Attack:
I know you guys run a run-oriented spread with a solid quarterback. What should we know about him? Is there a credible passing threat to go with the run?
RABA: Yes, that's Chandler Harnish that you are talking about. He started as a redshirt freshman last year and performed admirably for a player with minimal experience. Without a full grasp of the offense, Harnish tried to do too much last year. He led the team in rushing with 539 and 4 TDs on the ground, despite going down in week 2 with an ankle injury and returning in game 6 against Miami OH before he was 100%. Those stats are troublesome, because he needs more help around him in the offense. We've got a good stable of running backs returning and a talented, but extremely young group of wide receivers that need to step up this year. Harnish has a much better grasp of the offense this year and made great strides in the off-season to improve his game. Chandler finished with a 8-9 TD to INT ratio last year and that was because we ran a limited offense as he was still learning to play the game full-time. He is also expected to be the first Sophomore captain for the Huskies in over a decade.
What's the view of the defense with all the new starters (7, right?). Do you expect a rebuilding year? Who are the guys you are excited about that we should know about?
RABA: Coach Jerry Kill rotates our defensive players like crazy, so seven new starters can be a bit deceiving if you look at the history of the players that we are putting in this year to start for our defense. Of course there is going to be an obvious drop off with the departure of Larry English off to the San Diego Chargers in the NFL. The new star on the DL should be Brandon Bice, who was a full-time starter in 2007 and had 6.5 sacks and was named 3rd Team All-MAC last year all while only starting one game. Mike Krause is the consistent starter on the DL [but Mike learned -- literally this morning -- that Krause is out with a heart condition] and replacing Larry English's side is a 25-year-old former Marine in Jake Coffman that has seen significant playing time these past couple years.
At linebacker the name to remember is Alex Kube. He shifted from SS to OLB before last year and slowly began to be a terrorizing force on the defense with 57 tackles last year. On his other side is Cory Hanson, who has good speed and had 37 tackles in 7 starts LY. One of our most productive linebackers and a full-time starter back in 2007 John Tranchitella will be playing behind Kube because there is so much depth at this position. At MLB, Pat Schiller should fill in nice after playing in all 13 games last year an compiling 24 tackles as a redshirt freshman.
In the secondary, the competition was so fierce in the Spring that Mike Sobol who started 12 games last year at SS got beat out by a sophomore in Tracy Wilson. FS David Bryant is the leader of the defense and has been deemed by Coach Kill as his next player with NFL potential. Two starters need to be replaced at CB, but there are some solid players filling in there. Patrick George is a speed demon and has played 24 games the past two years and Kiaree Daniels played in all 13 games LY.So lets just say we don't lose as many starters in reality, but it might take a while for all of them to break in as a unit.
I know you guys lost a lot of close ones last season to quality teams. Was that the high-water mark, or do you see marquis wins over Wisconsin, Purdue, etc.?RABA: Was that the high-water mark? Absolutely not. Last year NIU was only outgained by 31 ypg in a pair of 4-pt losses to both Minnesota and Tennessee. Our starting QB was out for the Tennessee game and we were still in that game despite not having much of an offense to boot. If Harnish would have started in that game, then that would have been a win in Knoxville. Our fans are starving right now for another season like 2003, when we beat a nationally-ranked Maryland team and Alabama in Tuscaloosa. It's not like we haven't been to the top in the past and it is always our goal to perform and win these games against BCS schools.
This season is interesting, because we are supposed to be a better team than last year. It is only the second year in Coach Kill's tenure, but we have a young team that isn't afraid of anything. NIU was thrown to the wolves last year and its not like we haven't tussled with the big boys before. This year should be interesting, because both Purdue and Wisconsin have been predicted to finish in the middle to bottom-half of the Big 10 by all the pundits out there. Usually we have to face schools we have no chance against like #4 Michigan in 2005 or #1 Ohio State in 2006. It's our best chance to beat one, if not two Big 10/BCS schools in a long, long time.
What's the game plan to win at Madison at night? Do you see it happening?
RABA: The gameplan will be the typical Coach Kill game plan: run the ball, run the ball some more then some play action. If I'm not mistaken, this is the best strategy because the Badgers have some pretty big losses on both the DL and LB units this year. Then on defense um...stop John Clay? Is that even possible? I think we have some players to match up with Garrett Graham, but I think our CBs might have some trouble keeping Gilreath, Toon & whoever else in check for most of the game.
Our last (and only) win against a Big 10 team? Wisconsin in 1988. I'm sure a bunch of the players want revenge for that mauling back in 2007 when half our team was injured. Do I see a win happening? I think it will be a lot closer than people are anticipating.
I agree, it will be closer than people on our side of the border want to believe.
Badger Blogger Roundtable: 2009 Defense
After discussing the offense, we Badger bloggers turned to the near blank slate that is our defense. What to make of all the new faces? Adam Hoge of Bucky's 5th Quarter led the charge, with Scott Tappa of BadgerCentric, Phil Mitten of Hoops Marinara, and me contributing our views as well:
Can you believe it has been five years since that great defensive line of 2004? Depth is once again an issue this year, but there seems to be some promise in J.J. Watt among others. Do you see any newcomers stepping up on the D-line to provide some depth?
On Wisconsin: Yeah, 5 years since Anttaj and Erasmus, but harder to believe for me is that Chapman and Shaughnessy never became true beasts on the line. They had so much promise early. Schofield is solid (led the team in sacks last season) and everyone is excited about Watt, but it's all based on practice so far. I want to believe in him, but I'm a little nervous. I'm concerned about our size everywhere and Moore really should be an end (where he would probably be very good), but we should have speed on the edges. I don't know who the solid tackles-to-be are, but with Nzegwu, Mains, and Westphal, there is plenty of young talent ready to step up on the ends. We'll need it.
Badger Centric: It's funny, because when you mentioned 2004, the first thing I thought was "I thought 2005 would be a down year, and we ended up winning 10 games, great year." But that was in spite of the defensive line! Even so, while injuries killed that unit (remember Beckum playing end?), but guys like Shaughnessy, Hayden, and Chapman showed promise. I don't see those guys on this unit. O'Brien is a solid starter. Watt seems to have a Hayden-like ceiling. But are there difference-makers? Doesn't look like it. I'll be happy if these guys can keep offensive linemen off our linebackers.
Hoops Marinara: It's a shame Erasmus and Co. flamed out in the NFL. Maybe they weren't that great after all. In 2009, the Badgers look weak up the middle and that spells trouble. I like O'Brien Schofield, who seems like he should be the emotional leader on the unit. Again, I like the younger guys UW has backing up the end positions, but inside is a question mark.
Bucky’s 5th Quarter: You have to be careful from what comes out of Camp Randall in the off-season because a lot of it can be propaganda. But I must say I am a little more optimistic about the defensive line than I was in the spring. After talking with O’Brien Schofield, I must say he seems like a solid leader and he’s determined to have a good year. If J.J. Watt blossoms like he is supposed to, I think Brendan Kelly and Louis Nzegwu do enough to make this a solid line.
Speaking of a lack of depth, the linebacking corp. seems to be scrambling to replace Jonathan Casillas and DeAndre Levy. Blake Sorensen didn't have a great spring, but he is still listed ahead of Mike Taylor on the depth chart. Are you worried about the linebackers?
Badger Centric: Yes, very. Don't want to join the chorus questioning Sorenson, but I've never seen it with him. Saw Taylor play in high school and he was a stud, but we certainly can't count on him to be a standout this year. McFadden and St. Jean are average at best. And there is no one else. What about playing Pleasant at linebacker? We see so much spread it might make sense to have a guy like that in the front seven.
Hoops Marinara: Sorensen certainly has a lot of expectations to fulfill, but I think along with Culmer St. Jean and J. McFadden they can form a decent group. No one will accuse them of being as athletic as last year's group -- Casillas and Levy were two of the best athletes at that position that Wisconsin has seen. But what the Badgers really need is simply a group that knows how to tackle well. I don't want every draw play that gets past the line going for 6 ... can we get another Donnel Thompson in this bunch, please?!
Bucky’s 5th Quarter: I’m excited about McFadden in the middle, but very worried about the other two spots. Culmer St. Jean has never really put it all together and Sorensen didn’t exactly take advantage of his opportunities in the spring. It should be interesting to see what Mike Taylor can do. If he has a good camp, this will be the most fun defensive position battle over the next month.
On Wisconsin: I think the linebackers are the scariest group. First, Sorenson looked S-L-O-W in the spring. I'm pulling for Taylor if only because Sorenson either isn't fast enough or didn't care enough to try harder. I think St. Jean played pretty well when he had his chances last season, so we have two solid starters, but who's backing them up? That's where the loss of Hodge as a solid, contributing second-stringer really hurt. We've heard some positives about Megna, Rouse, and Hubbard, but we haven't seen it yet. Bottom line: I'm worried. Really worried.
Is it safe to say (and a little scary to say) that the secondary is the strength of the Badger defense? It seems like every guy listed on two-deep has shown flashes of brilliance at some point in the last few seasons, but they also have had their hardships. And will Aaron Henry really be as good as he looked like he would be before the knee injury?
Hoops Marinara: There's no question that the secondary looks good by comparison. But I think they actually will be good. Henry should be ready to go -- he's one of the elite talents on the team. I'm really excited to see him grow up. The entire makeup of the secondary is intriguing. You have knock-out artist in Valai, an overachiever in Maragos, plus a lot of experience backing those safeties up (Carter and Pleasant). Niles Brinkley is probably the weak link.
Badger Centric: It is scary, and I'd even question the "flashes of brilliance" assertion. We've seen flashes of competence from these guys, and I'd settled for sustained competence. But every one of the starters has question marks: Henry with the knee, Maragos still learning the position, Valai and his pure hitter MO, and Brinkley giving up big plays. But I'm actually optimistic about these guys and the young guys too. Shane Carter is a wild card, if he could come in and force some turnovers that would be huge.
Bucky’s 5th Quarter: Remember when Shane Carter led the Big Ten in interceptions two years ago? And Niles Brinkley picked off four passes last season? Why don’t I remember all of this? Oh, because when they weren’t grabbing turnovers they were getting beat for touchdowns and committing crucial penalties. Every member of the starting secondary has a good amount of experience, but how much talent do they have? We’ll find out soon.
On Wisconsin: I think they are a strength, but that's relative to the near total unknown of the front 7. Especially at safety, I worry about making that critical tackle. As much as Valai can lay the wood (needs to watch the head-to-head stuff, though), he missed his fair share of tackles last season. That's been Carter's problem all along, which is why Maragos will probably start at free safety. At corner Henry will be fine. I'm glad they decided to keep him out all of last season to truly let him heal. Niles Brinkley played fine last season, and I'm hoping Fenelus and Smith are coming along as well as advertised. But hope is not a method.
What are your thoughts on the defensive coaching staff? Toughness seemed to be an issue at times last season. How will this unit overcome the mental and physical shortcomings that were apparent in 2008?
Bucky’s 5th Quarter: The good news is that fixing these problems was item No. 1 in the off-season. Improving the defense’s mental and physical toughness – and committing fewer mistakes – will give this team an extra win or two this season. And if the problems continue then it will be a major problem for the defensive coaching staff.
On Wisconsin: Bottom line is the heat should be squarely on Doeren. After what Hankwitz did to turn around the Northwestern defense, Bielema's choice to go with Dave over Mike hasn't looked so hot. Maybe it was just breaking everything in the first year with guys who were more used to Hankwitz's way of doing things? That's no excuse this year. On top of making tackles, the defense needs to improve its conditioning. The losses to Michigan, Ohio State, and Michigan State all lay at the defense's tired feet (Bielema's too, of course). The idea that a Barry Alvarez legacy team (as long as he's the AD, he's a part of it) could be 9th in scoring defense in the Big Ten is unfathomable. That can't happen again.
Badger Centric: I don't know about toughness, it's hard to get to be a guy who plays a lot on a Big Ten defense and not be at least somewhat tough. Remember, there were a lot of injuries on that side of the ball last year: Casillas, Levy, Chapman, Henry, and that hurt productivity. What sticks with me are comments made on my blog after the Iowa game. I forget who said it, but the point was made that our defense had finally adapted to deal with the Spread, but when we go against a power line and back like Iowa had, we get run over. That probably won't always happen, but there's a lot of truth there. So by making the seemingly necessary adaptation to deal with the Spread, we have lost our identity as being a stout, stop-the-run defense, and become just another defense with a bunch of undersized guys running around in space. If these undersized guys were racking up sacks and interceptions, that would be one thing, but the unit seems mediocre at best, and it's not like next year looks any more promising. Some of that's on X's and O's coaching, but it's also recruiting and player development.
Hoops Marinara: It starts at the top with BB. I can't stress enough how much I want the coach to relinquish the Special Teams duties. He needs to set the example being focused and knowing where to be at all times. The good news is if the secondary can be everything I want it to be, that makes the job of pressuring the QB a little easier. I think the offense can be better this year too, which should (hopefully) alleviate the problems the defense had being worn out all the time in tight games.
On Leadership
What is leadership, and how does it work for a football team? A flurry of articles over at the Journal Sentinel yesterday and today got me thinking . . .
Writers, coaches, players, and fans often talk about the number of returning seniors and how that translates to leadership. It translates to experience, certainly, but I'm less sure on the leadership side of things. There's a difference between depth and leadership.
I think too many seniors actually limits their leadership potential. Instead of having a handful of guys that everyone else looks to, you get a big group of guys who are all buddies who are distinct from the rest of the team. Instead of having that one guy that everyone looks to, the younger guys are probably turned away from the group of senior guys that all huddle together.
I don't mean to say this is an intentional thing, but I suspect it happens. Think about the Badger teams over the last few years. In 2006 we had a great season with few seniors on either side of the ball. But you can bet on offense there was no question who was in charge: Joe Thomas and John Stocco. And on Defense? Mark Zalewski and Joe Stellmacher. They were in charge. No question. And that's what you need from leaders: leadership.
Last season, who was in charge? It wasn't the quarterbacks. PJ Hill, Travis Beckum, Kemp, Urbik, Vanden Huevel, Pressley, Rentmeester?
And on defense? Casillas, Levy, Chapman, Shaughnessy, Newkirk, Langford?
These guys probably had good chemistry between them, but not as much with the other classes. And as the switch in leadership from '07 to '08 shows (Casillas to Levy, for instance), there probably (a) wasn't good leadership amongst them (was Casillas going to lead Levy when we really needed that extra effort late in the 4th, or the other way around?), and likely they hung out in groups where the younger guys were discouraged (not actively, but implicitly) from approaching them.
I can imagine the three offensive lineman all hanging out (heck, UW even gave us a video of them chatting with Bielema). Did Moffitt or Oglesby feel like they could just stroll up and look for guidance? Did they know who was really in charge? Likewise with the defensive line: did Schofield, Nzegwu, or Mains feel like one of the crew or know where to turn to find the boss? In the linebacking corps, it was more of the same.
Sometimes I wonder if the departure of all those seniors (as at the end of 2005) actually helps with the new team because it provides opportunity for real leadership and breaks down likely cliques of guys who have played together since they came in and who look at the younger guys as being part of a different clique.
Someone asked me the other day if I'm a 1/2 full or 1/2 empy kind of a guy: I said 3/4 full. Maybe I'm just clutching at straws looking for reasons to elevate my expectations for what could be a rough year. Or maybe I'm on to something.
Look for guys like Garrett Graham, Gabe Carimi, O'Brien Schofield, and Jaevery McFadden to really take the reigns. They will lead, others will follow. Teams need leaders, not cliques.
I think we'll see true leaders this season (though I won't go so far as to suggest they will be as good at leading as that 2006 group). I won't be at all surprised to see this group acting more like a team than last year's.
Too many seniors may actually be a bad thing.
Writers, coaches, players, and fans often talk about the number of returning seniors and how that translates to leadership. It translates to experience, certainly, but I'm less sure on the leadership side of things. There's a difference between depth and leadership.
I think too many seniors actually limits their leadership potential. Instead of having a handful of guys that everyone else looks to, you get a big group of guys who are all buddies who are distinct from the rest of the team. Instead of having that one guy that everyone looks to, the younger guys are probably turned away from the group of senior guys that all huddle together.
I don't mean to say this is an intentional thing, but I suspect it happens. Think about the Badger teams over the last few years. In 2006 we had a great season with few seniors on either side of the ball. But you can bet on offense there was no question who was in charge: Joe Thomas and John Stocco. And on Defense? Mark Zalewski and Joe Stellmacher. They were in charge. No question. And that's what you need from leaders: leadership.
Last season, who was in charge? It wasn't the quarterbacks. PJ Hill, Travis Beckum, Kemp, Urbik, Vanden Huevel, Pressley, Rentmeester?
And on defense? Casillas, Levy, Chapman, Shaughnessy, Newkirk, Langford?
These guys probably had good chemistry between them, but not as much with the other classes. And as the switch in leadership from '07 to '08 shows (Casillas to Levy, for instance), there probably (a) wasn't good leadership amongst them (was Casillas going to lead Levy when we really needed that extra effort late in the 4th, or the other way around?), and likely they hung out in groups where the younger guys were discouraged (not actively, but implicitly) from approaching them.
I can imagine the three offensive lineman all hanging out (heck, UW even gave us a video of them chatting with Bielema). Did Moffitt or Oglesby feel like they could just stroll up and look for guidance? Did they know who was really in charge? Likewise with the defensive line: did Schofield, Nzegwu, or Mains feel like one of the crew or know where to turn to find the boss? In the linebacking corps, it was more of the same.
Sometimes I wonder if the departure of all those seniors (as at the end of 2005) actually helps with the new team because it provides opportunity for real leadership and breaks down likely cliques of guys who have played together since they came in and who look at the younger guys as being part of a different clique.
Someone asked me the other day if I'm a 1/2 full or 1/2 empy kind of a guy: I said 3/4 full. Maybe I'm just clutching at straws looking for reasons to elevate my expectations for what could be a rough year. Or maybe I'm on to something.
Look for guys like Garrett Graham, Gabe Carimi, O'Brien Schofield, and Jaevery McFadden to really take the reigns. They will lead, others will follow. Teams need leaders, not cliques.
I think we'll see true leaders this season (though I won't go so far as to suggest they will be as good at leading as that 2006 group). I won't be at all surprised to see this group acting more like a team than last year's.
Through Rose [Bowl] Colored Glasses: Iowa
National Champs, right? I mean, it's Iowa and we're asking Iowa fans to weigh in . . . Ok, that's not [entirely] fair, but the Hawkeyes do have a reputation for being overly bullish. This year Iowa loses Shonn Greene (who the Badgers turned into a superstar last season), but they return an offensive line that might make me, at 35 and never playing a down of organized football, a Heisman candidate. So, is this the 3rd act of the Kirk Ferentz story at Iowa? The one where he defies the firekirkferentz.com crowd and wins that elusive title (Big Ten or better)? Here's opinion from one emminently reasonable Iowa fan and blogger, Fight for Iowa (we had this exchange a little while ago, so I've added some updates where appropriate):
(1) No Shonn Greene, and now word is Jewel Hampton may have a bum knee . . . who's going to carry the rock, and how good will he be? Does it even matter, or would I go over 100 yards per game behind that line? Is there anything at all that you worry about regarding the offensive line?
This has been all the buzz the last couple of days. The severity of Hampton's injury isn't known yet, but it is expected that he'll miss time [ed. update: Hampton is a go]. Now, Kirk Ferentz likes his experienced backs that know the offense and don't fumble. But, really there is nobody proven to be all those things at runningback. The most experienced player is Paki O'Meara, who will be serviceable if necessary, and could start the season at #1, but I expected Jeff Brinson to be the permanent starter once the season starts rolling on. Brinson was recruited by the likes for Florida and put up huge numbers in high school. By all accounts he's just as good if not better than Hampton and would have got the #2 spot last year if it weren't for ono/asthma/something issues. Also, there is incoming freshman Brandon Wegher, who also put up huge numbers in high school. He's got a lot of hype around him and is very quick. If he can pick up the offense I think he'll be the #2 back.
Oh the offensive line...if you would have asked me a month or so ago I would have been very confident that Iowa has the best o-line in the conference. However, Julian Vandervelde has an injury and will at least miss a few games. And Kyle Calloway is suspended for at least a game [ed. note: 1 game] for his drunken moped ride. So, I am not quite as confident. The line should still be good as there is tons of experience on the inside and Bryan Bulaga is a beast at tackle. Once Calloway and Vandervelde are back in the line up and the line has a chance to meld, then watch out...that line will be good.
(2) Stanzi has to be the man, right? Without Greene, can he be? It seems like Iowa always has a solid tight end, is Moeaki ready to be that guy? Is the Badger-like stereotype accurate that Iowa doesn't throw the ball unless absolutely necessary?
Stanzi is the Manzi, as they like to say. I think he'll have a good year. He definitely had his moments last year, good and bad. If he can limit the number of turnovers, then he'll be successful. He is accurate enough, mobile enough, and smart enough to lead this offense to lots of yards and points. And, yeah, he'll get his chances. Iowa is definitely a run first team, but Ken O'Keefe and Kirk Ferentz love the play action pass. A fake hand-off, then roll out by Stanzi...this play works really well for Stanzi. He is better on the move than in the pocket and can pull it down and run if necessary.
Tony Moeaki should be ready this year. He's hopefully over all his injuries and will be the starter. When healthy he has consistently produced and Iowa knows how to use their tight ends. Allen Reisner is also good at tight end and saw a lot of time last year while Moeaki was out.
(3) With the new defensive tackles, is there any hope for the opposition to run up the gut? What's the weakness of this defense?
The defensive tackle is definitely the most inexperience part of the defense. The two tackles will be Karl Klug and Mike Daniels. While they won't be King and Kroul (obviously) they should be just fine. Klug was the B10 Defensive Player of the Week way back in week 2 and made some huge plays against PSU last year. Daniels should be okay too. He's on the small side, but quick and should be able to make some plays in the backfield. Though the tackles are relatively inexperienced, the defensive ends will be the anchors of this line. Adrian Clayborn and Christian Ballard are a very good duo at defensive end. Though their numbers are not as flashy as some of the other ends in the conference they make a lot of big plays. Both have the size to move inside and play tackle and there is a lot more depth at end, especially with Broderick Binns. So look for Clayborn to line up at tackle next to Klug with Binns and Ballard on the outside in passing situations.
(4) I'll be honest, last year's Iowa team is a puzzle. I know, you guys could've been unbeaten on the basis of about 4 plays, but the results were still erratic: Pittsburgh, Northwestern, and Michigan State just weren't world beaters. They were decent teams that didn't give up much for free (although Pittsburgh did from time to time). The loss to Illinois and the home struggle against an awful Purdue team were puzzling, to say the least. It isn't as though those two teams had great run defenses. So Iowa beat one team that finished the season ranked, and that was at home (though to be fair, the win over Penn State was huge), and only played one other team that finished ranked (MSU, at #24). This season the schedule looks a lot rougher with Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan State, and Wisconsin on the road (on paper we don't deserve mentioning with those first three). What was the story last season, and what do you make of your chances in 2009? Is CFN right to call you a "deep sleeper in the championship chase?"
Bad turnovers cost us in our 4 losses. Northwestern was a nightmare...5 turnovers and still only lose by 5. Michigan State and Illinois were more of the same (not as many turnovers, but very costly ones). And, you can blame the Pitt game on the quarterback controversy. Heck, maybe blame the Northwestern game and MSU game on that too. It took Stanzi a few games to hit his rhythm and get the turnover bug out of his system. And he hadn't really figured out yet how to win the close game. Against both Northwestern and Michigan State, Iowa drove down the field with a chance to win, but couldn't get it done.
But on to this upcoming year. I'd say a "deep sleeper" is a fair assessment. In contrast to the difficult road schedule, the home schedule is fairly easy. It's very conceivable Iowa could for 7-0 at Kinnick which is a good start to have a championship type season. Now, I think Iowa goes 2-2 on the road in the Big Ten, but I'll give you reasons why Iowa could win each game.
PSU - Iowa is lucky to get Penn State early in the year. They lost all their receivers and all of their secondary, so may still be a little green there in the 4th week. Though it is a revenge game, at night, and will be a White Out, Iowa under Ferentz has had Penn State's number (6-2).
MSU - Michigan State and Iowa are very similar teams this year. Both lose a start running back and both have tons back on defense. The differences are, Iowa returns its quarterback, and Iowa's returners on defense are good, while Michigan State's are mediocre.
Wisconsin - You know more about Wisconsin than me, but Iowa matches up very well defensively against a power run team like Wisconsin. Also, from what I've read the Badgers have a lot to replace among both lines.
OSU - Well...it's much harder to make a case against Ohio State. Iowa hasn't won in Columbus in forever [since 1991]. But the Buckeyes only return 5 guys on offense and lose two stud linebackers in James Laurinaitis and Marcus Freeman.
(5) 2002-04 was a great run, and after a decade at the helm, Ferentz has Iowa fifth in the Big Ten in winning percentage, but ten points back from #3 Wisconsin, and five back from #4 Penn State (67%, 62%, and 57%, respectively; ranking is the same, but it's closer counting only Big Ten games) and no Rose Bowls (1 BCS bowl). Is that really good enough? Did last season take Ferentz off the hot-seat, or would an 8-4 year with as many arrests as wins kick-start firekirkferentz.com?
I think Ferentz is off of the hot seat. And 8-4 seasons will be good enough to keep him in Iowa as long as he wants to be. Yeah, arrests have been a problem...but I think it's just the media that blame Ferentz. It's been said before many time, but Ferentz has done a lot with very little. He has developed players better than just about anyone and it seems like this year at least recruiting has been going better. Realistically for Iowa, fans will be happy with a bowl game every year, with a Big Ten Title every 6-7 years.
(6) The university -- and the state -- is named for the woodsman Hawkeye from the Last of the Mohicans. How did he get to Iowa, and what made him stick as the mascot?
Wow...that's a tough questions. You're making me do research! From what I can gather, the state of Iowa originally took on the moniker the "Hawkeye State" in a tribute to the great Chief Black Hawk of the Sac Native American tribe. The University of Iowa, liked the name made a connection with the popularity of the character Hawkeye from the books, so the name stuck. Iowa's mascot is really Herky the Hawk. Though, Herky didn't come around until later. He made his first appearance at a football game in 1959.
(7) I've heard Kinnick can be a great road trip, but there's no love loss between our fan bases and some Badgers I know report some unfortunate incidents in Iowa City. Badger and Gopher fans think Iowa fans always think Iowa a national title contender, regardless of what's happening on the field, and that Ferentz is doing his best to rename the Fulmer Cup. Why is that wrong, and what is the Hawkeye take on Badger fans? I was in Madison for the Iowa game in 2007 and it seemed like everyone got along fine, even with the alcohol-fueled night start. What do you expect in Madison this time around?
We Hawkeye fans got spoiled a little bit in 2002-2004 ['02 Co-B10 champs with national champ OSU, Orange Bowl, '03 Outback victory over Florida, '04 one heck of a Capital One victory over LSU]. Three years like that in a row! That was great. So yeah, so people got a little carried away and expected years like that every year. But realistically there are very few teams that can compete on that level year in and year out and I think most Hawkeye fans understand that. I think the common conception of Badger fans is that they are rowdy, but I don't know. Nothing too bad. Maybe I'm too nice to have bad thoughts about Badger fans. I've never been to Madison but I've heard the atmosphere is great. Game-wise, I expect a closer game than last year's Shonn Greene highlight reel.
(8) I know, Bielema has a Hawkeye tattoo. What clever thing do you want to say about it?
Does the tigerhawk tattoo really bug Badger fans? That would be great if it did. I am assuming the tattoo is really some kind of telekinetic portal into the minds of the Iowa coaches that Bielema uses to find out which recruits Iowa is offering, so that he can swoop in and do the same.
(1) No Shonn Greene, and now word is Jewel Hampton may have a bum knee . . . who's going to carry the rock, and how good will he be? Does it even matter, or would I go over 100 yards per game behind that line? Is there anything at all that you worry about regarding the offensive line?
This has been all the buzz the last couple of days. The severity of Hampton's injury isn't known yet, but it is expected that he'll miss time [ed. update: Hampton is a go]. Now, Kirk Ferentz likes his experienced backs that know the offense and don't fumble. But, really there is nobody proven to be all those things at runningback. The most experienced player is Paki O'Meara, who will be serviceable if necessary, and could start the season at #1, but I expected Jeff Brinson to be the permanent starter once the season starts rolling on. Brinson was recruited by the likes for Florida and put up huge numbers in high school. By all accounts he's just as good if not better than Hampton and would have got the #2 spot last year if it weren't for ono/asthma/something issues. Also, there is incoming freshman Brandon Wegher, who also put up huge numbers in high school. He's got a lot of hype around him and is very quick. If he can pick up the offense I think he'll be the #2 back.
Oh the offensive line...if you would have asked me a month or so ago I would have been very confident that Iowa has the best o-line in the conference. However, Julian Vandervelde has an injury and will at least miss a few games. And Kyle Calloway is suspended for at least a game [ed. note: 1 game] for his drunken moped ride. So, I am not quite as confident. The line should still be good as there is tons of experience on the inside and Bryan Bulaga is a beast at tackle. Once Calloway and Vandervelde are back in the line up and the line has a chance to meld, then watch out...that line will be good.
(2) Stanzi has to be the man, right? Without Greene, can he be? It seems like Iowa always has a solid tight end, is Moeaki ready to be that guy? Is the Badger-like stereotype accurate that Iowa doesn't throw the ball unless absolutely necessary?
Stanzi is the Manzi, as they like to say. I think he'll have a good year. He definitely had his moments last year, good and bad. If he can limit the number of turnovers, then he'll be successful. He is accurate enough, mobile enough, and smart enough to lead this offense to lots of yards and points. And, yeah, he'll get his chances. Iowa is definitely a run first team, but Ken O'Keefe and Kirk Ferentz love the play action pass. A fake hand-off, then roll out by Stanzi...this play works really well for Stanzi. He is better on the move than in the pocket and can pull it down and run if necessary.
Tony Moeaki should be ready this year. He's hopefully over all his injuries and will be the starter. When healthy he has consistently produced and Iowa knows how to use their tight ends. Allen Reisner is also good at tight end and saw a lot of time last year while Moeaki was out.
(3) With the new defensive tackles, is there any hope for the opposition to run up the gut? What's the weakness of this defense?
The defensive tackle is definitely the most inexperience part of the defense. The two tackles will be Karl Klug and Mike Daniels. While they won't be King and Kroul (obviously) they should be just fine. Klug was the B10 Defensive Player of the Week way back in week 2 and made some huge plays against PSU last year. Daniels should be okay too. He's on the small side, but quick and should be able to make some plays in the backfield. Though the tackles are relatively inexperienced, the defensive ends will be the anchors of this line. Adrian Clayborn and Christian Ballard are a very good duo at defensive end. Though their numbers are not as flashy as some of the other ends in the conference they make a lot of big plays. Both have the size to move inside and play tackle and there is a lot more depth at end, especially with Broderick Binns. So look for Clayborn to line up at tackle next to Klug with Binns and Ballard on the outside in passing situations.
(4) I'll be honest, last year's Iowa team is a puzzle. I know, you guys could've been unbeaten on the basis of about 4 plays, but the results were still erratic: Pittsburgh, Northwestern, and Michigan State just weren't world beaters. They were decent teams that didn't give up much for free (although Pittsburgh did from time to time). The loss to Illinois and the home struggle against an awful Purdue team were puzzling, to say the least. It isn't as though those two teams had great run defenses. So Iowa beat one team that finished the season ranked, and that was at home (though to be fair, the win over Penn State was huge), and only played one other team that finished ranked (MSU, at #24). This season the schedule looks a lot rougher with Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan State, and Wisconsin on the road (on paper we don't deserve mentioning with those first three). What was the story last season, and what do you make of your chances in 2009? Is CFN right to call you a "deep sleeper in the championship chase?"
Bad turnovers cost us in our 4 losses. Northwestern was a nightmare...5 turnovers and still only lose by 5. Michigan State and Illinois were more of the same (not as many turnovers, but very costly ones). And, you can blame the Pitt game on the quarterback controversy. Heck, maybe blame the Northwestern game and MSU game on that too. It took Stanzi a few games to hit his rhythm and get the turnover bug out of his system. And he hadn't really figured out yet how to win the close game. Against both Northwestern and Michigan State, Iowa drove down the field with a chance to win, but couldn't get it done.
But on to this upcoming year. I'd say a "deep sleeper" is a fair assessment. In contrast to the difficult road schedule, the home schedule is fairly easy. It's very conceivable Iowa could for 7-0 at Kinnick which is a good start to have a championship type season. Now, I think Iowa goes 2-2 on the road in the Big Ten, but I'll give you reasons why Iowa could win each game.
PSU - Iowa is lucky to get Penn State early in the year. They lost all their receivers and all of their secondary, so may still be a little green there in the 4th week. Though it is a revenge game, at night, and will be a White Out, Iowa under Ferentz has had Penn State's number (6-2).
MSU - Michigan State and Iowa are very similar teams this year. Both lose a start running back and both have tons back on defense. The differences are, Iowa returns its quarterback, and Iowa's returners on defense are good, while Michigan State's are mediocre.
Wisconsin - You know more about Wisconsin than me, but Iowa matches up very well defensively against a power run team like Wisconsin. Also, from what I've read the Badgers have a lot to replace among both lines.
OSU - Well...it's much harder to make a case against Ohio State. Iowa hasn't won in Columbus in forever [since 1991]. But the Buckeyes only return 5 guys on offense and lose two stud linebackers in James Laurinaitis and Marcus Freeman.
(5) 2002-04 was a great run, and after a decade at the helm, Ferentz has Iowa fifth in the Big Ten in winning percentage, but ten points back from #3 Wisconsin, and five back from #4 Penn State (67%, 62%, and 57%, respectively; ranking is the same, but it's closer counting only Big Ten games) and no Rose Bowls (1 BCS bowl). Is that really good enough? Did last season take Ferentz off the hot-seat, or would an 8-4 year with as many arrests as wins kick-start firekirkferentz.com?
I think Ferentz is off of the hot seat. And 8-4 seasons will be good enough to keep him in Iowa as long as he wants to be. Yeah, arrests have been a problem...but I think it's just the media that blame Ferentz. It's been said before many time, but Ferentz has done a lot with very little. He has developed players better than just about anyone and it seems like this year at least recruiting has been going better. Realistically for Iowa, fans will be happy with a bowl game every year, with a Big Ten Title every 6-7 years.
(6) The university -- and the state -- is named for the woodsman Hawkeye from the Last of the Mohicans. How did he get to Iowa, and what made him stick as the mascot?
Wow...that's a tough questions. You're making me do research! From what I can gather, the state of Iowa originally took on the moniker the "Hawkeye State" in a tribute to the great Chief Black Hawk of the Sac Native American tribe. The University of Iowa, liked the name made a connection with the popularity of the character Hawkeye from the books, so the name stuck. Iowa's mascot is really Herky the Hawk. Though, Herky didn't come around until later. He made his first appearance at a football game in 1959.
(7) I've heard Kinnick can be a great road trip, but there's no love loss between our fan bases and some Badgers I know report some unfortunate incidents in Iowa City. Badger and Gopher fans think Iowa fans always think Iowa a national title contender, regardless of what's happening on the field, and that Ferentz is doing his best to rename the Fulmer Cup. Why is that wrong, and what is the Hawkeye take on Badger fans? I was in Madison for the Iowa game in 2007 and it seemed like everyone got along fine, even with the alcohol-fueled night start. What do you expect in Madison this time around?
We Hawkeye fans got spoiled a little bit in 2002-2004 ['02 Co-B10 champs with national champ OSU, Orange Bowl, '03 Outback victory over Florida, '04 one heck of a Capital One victory over LSU]. Three years like that in a row! That was great. So yeah, so people got a little carried away and expected years like that every year. But realistically there are very few teams that can compete on that level year in and year out and I think most Hawkeye fans understand that. I think the common conception of Badger fans is that they are rowdy, but I don't know. Nothing too bad. Maybe I'm too nice to have bad thoughts about Badger fans. I've never been to Madison but I've heard the atmosphere is great. Game-wise, I expect a closer game than last year's Shonn Greene highlight reel.
(8) I know, Bielema has a Hawkeye tattoo. What clever thing do you want to say about it?
Does the tigerhawk tattoo really bug Badger fans? That would be great if it did. I am assuming the tattoo is really some kind of telekinetic portal into the minds of the Iowa coaches that Bielema uses to find out which recruits Iowa is offering, so that he can swoop in and do the same.
We Heart Garrett Graham
Doesn't everyone? Yes. And yes.
Nice work, Bucky's 5th Quarter -- good insight on Turner and quarterback.
Nice work, Bucky's 5th Quarter -- good insight on Turner and quarterback.
Through Rose [Bowl] Colored Glasses: Michigan State
At the Big Ten Media days the coaches predicted Michigan State will come in 3rd in conference. In year three of Dantonio that isn’t a stretch. Sparty comes to Madison to kick off the Big Ten season and they hope a run for the Roses. Through Rose Bowl colored glasses? Sparty faithful hope so, and may not be delusional . . . though certainly optimistic. The bloggers at SpartyMSU and the Enlightened Spartan answered my questions to let us know what to expect on September 26.
1) Who's your quarterback?
Sparty MSU: The good thing for MSU is that we have 2 good QBs Kirk Cousins and Keith Nichol, and in the wings four star recruit Andrew Maxwell and Stud recruit Joe Boisture .. but at this point I think Kirk Cousins will lead the team on the field. Last year he was behind Brian Hoyer and had stats of 32-43-1 for a 74.4% comp rate. This spring I thought both QBs look sharp. I’m not too worried about the QB position…
Enlightened Spartan: 1) Actually, it really doesn't matter who our quarterbacks are, they equally shined and probably had the best Spring ball out of quarterbacks in recent memory. Both Keith Nichol and Kirk Cousins are mobile and have strong arms. Each are an improvement over our serviceable, but efficient, QB Brian Hoyer .
2) Who's your running back? And is your offensive line good enough to make them look
decent? Word from the Spring Game is they were a little porous. What on earth should we
expect from your offense?
SpartyMSU: For the spring game, as any spring game Lines go at half speed, and the
Spartans have been working on diversification of the offense. 2008 it was the Javon Ringer
show. He was good, why not go with your strengths. This year our backs are strong, talented,
but no Javon. So, we have to work in the passing game. And that’s what happened. Look at
the Spring Stats: 357 yards passing for both Green and the White team. Which was over
87% of the total offense for both teams, and they ran only 18 rushes each side. But for
passing the QBs were 29 for 43 (Kirk) and 20 – 28 (Keith).
Running backs will be Ashton Leggett, Andre Anderson, Caulton Ray and/or A.J.
Jimmerson. I think Leggett and Ray might start, but with a range of backups, they might
platoon.
Bottom line, the ball will be in the air more this year than last.
Enlightened Spartan: Our running backs can use some work, and I've never been sold on senior AJ Jimmerson -- so it will likely be a running back-by-committee (Ashton Leggett, Andre Anderson, Caulton Ray) and you may likely see true frosh blue chippers Ed Baker or Larry Caper get the pigskin plenty this fall. Offensive line actually might be the best its been under Dantonio -- they were piss poor last year and didn't reach its potential despite two big seniors on the line: case in point was the team's 3.4 yards per carry a year ago despite the workhorse, Javon Ringer. Our wideouts need to wipe the butter off their hands and hold onto the ball this year... but have lots of experience returning (Mark Dell, Blair White, BJ Cunningham, and Charlie Gantt all should be improved). The o-line can only improve, and Joel Nitchman, Rocco Cironi, and Joel Foreman have plenty of PT (and better footwork) to make this an improved unit. Bottom line: expect an evenly balanced offense in 2009, a far cry from the 3-yards-and-a-cloud-of-Ringer offense last year. I expect we will be a little more efficient, in all honesty. Mark Dell may be the most improved player in the Big Ten and may rack up big-time stats behind our great QBs and a more balanced offense; he was injury plauged for most of the second half of 2008.
3) Dantonio seems to have righted the attitude issues in East Lansing. He took his first year's close losses to quality teams and turned them into close wins in his second season. He seems to get the most out of his players. However, since Michigan State last played in the Rose Bowl every team in the Big Ten except Indiana and Minnesota has made the trip. Is this the year that Michigan State makes their triumphant return (skipping Ohio State and getting Penn State and Iowa at home is a plus), or are the Spartans still a year or two away?
SpartyMSU: Can’t put the cart before the horse. Sure, all Spartans are keenly aware of the painful eons its been since we made a trip to Pasadena. But, we will return. With so much mediocre history behind us, no one in the program wants to rush in for a One and Done type of season. We are all on board for a long term rise with staying power. We want to get back to the Rose Bowl, its been since 1988 (when we beat USC 20 – 17), I still have a rose on my bedroom mirror as a daily reminder .. but, we are all behind Coach D, and have backed his long term approach. If we get to the Rose Bowl this year, We’ll take it.
Bottom Line: SpartyMSU has predicted it, so I’m packing my Bag and have Hotel reservations !
Enlightened Spartan: MSU seems to be a year away, but is improving across the board, in ALL areas of the team. I think we all should take a closer look at Dantonio's recipe... teach sound fundamental football (reduce turnovers), add in your typical, Pro Set offense to reduce spread-offense mistakes (three things can happen when you throw the football, and two are bad), add more fundamentals (reduce penalties), move to a bare-knuckles defense instead of a stunt defense, add more fundamentals (play to your position) and what do you get? A focus on defense with a minimal mistake offense, that plays games to the end. Dantonio is all about letting the other team make the mistakes as the game wears on, call their bluff, take advantage, and win on fundamentals. Results are improving as the cupboard becomes stocked with better talent.
While I'm not a believer in the recruiting services per se (eg, Keith Nichol helped Oklahoma to a Rivals-ranked Top 5 recruiting class, and now he plays for MSU), I believe you can get an IMPRESSION from them -- and the impression is that the Spartans are gaining better talent and more players who care about character & values to campus to play football. While Greg Jones is already emblematic of this on defense, you should really begin to see much more of this on the playing field as depth across the team has really begun to set in.
So, are we are year away? Probably... as we have a ton of talent returning next year. but that football is a funny shape, and you never know what might happen.
(3) Holding Iowa to 13 points was impressive, but overall the MSU defense wasn't great, and got scorched by Penn State, Ohio State, and dinged up pretty badly at Cal, too. What will make them better this season? Just how good is Greg Jones, and who else will shine for MSU?
SpartyMSU: No one in the Big Ten was as good as OSU or PSU last year, period. They were the cream of the Big Ten.. But to say the D wasn’t that great, well… ok. Not great, but we were good and better than most others in the Big Ten. We did end up in third place in the Big Ten.
Lets roll back the video Tape: MSU wasn’t First in “D”, just had middle of the road in “D” stats for 2008, MSU was # 5 in total “D” in the Big Ten in 2008, #1 in Red Zone “D”. #1 in fourth down conv. “D”. In terms of Big Ten leading tacklers, MSU had the #3 (Greg Jones), #13, #15. Of the top 15 tacklers in the Big Ten, only NU had more than 1 player, with only two. Spartans had three. And of those three, two return.
As for this season, we only get better on “D”…. 9 out of the 12 top MSU tacklers return. The D Line lost 2 starters, but are back filling with existing experienced players. LBs: Starters return. For Secondary, we lost stud Otis Wiley, but 75% of the ints. come back to the field this year, and everyone has starting experience. IN 2009, behind the “D” line, we only added depth this year.
Enlightened Spartan: I would argue the MSU defense was pretty good last year -- depends on how you define as "good." It was called on in some pretty tough situations (eg. Iowa, Wisconsin) to make big plays down the stretch when its offense, and Ringer's running, was anemic. Our wideouts dropped lots of passes last year. It was our defense that time and again bailed out MSU... at the end of games. That is Dantonio coaching, and it worked. The Spartans demonstrated that they weren't in the same league as JoePa or Ohio State -- and it showed. It's not all in the statistics -- and, we won 9 games, largely as a result of our defense, solid fundamentals, and superior coaching. Our defensive backfield has significant experience, size & speed, and is very deep.... reminds me of an Ohio State secondary. Our linebacking corps is the best we've had in 15 years, (ranked #7 nationally by Phil Steele, with Greg Jones, Eric Gordon, Adam Decker, and Josh Rouse. Lots of depth and experience here. Watch out for Trevor Anderson on the Dline, who may end up leading the Big Ten in sacks. Dantonio's best defense yet... and the majority return for another year.
(4) Starting with the painful (for us) game in 2004, the home team has won the last four games in this series, but the last two were very close; what do you think will be different this year that the Spartans will leave Madison with a win?
SpartyMSU: Please see my posting: Preview - Spartans 2009 Game 4: Wisconsin [ed. note: not sure where Sparty got the lyric sheet for On Wisconsin, but he may want to check that again.]
Spartans win…[ed. note: big! SpartyMSU sees it 28-15] !
Enlightened Spartan: It won't be different. It will be very close again. Another FG game. Yes, we'll win. Your dumb coach will screw it up again, thank you very much.
(5) The Badgers start off with a painfully soft schedule. While yours isn't all-world, the road game in South Bend the week before your trip West won't be a cake-walk (not withstanding the impressive 6-straight road wins over the Irish). Do you see the Notre Dame game as a benefit to you coming into Madison, or will that longstanding, heated rivalry take some spirit (and maybe some healthy bodies) away from the Badger game?
SpartyMSU: Spartans LOVE this rivalry (see recent posting: Preview - Spartans 2009 Game 3: Notre Dame)
We have to take the Tom Izzo attitude: play anyone, any time, anywhere. Yeah, we might be a little banged up, but I think the Spartans will know more about the Spartans, then Wisconsin will have their own insight. Come on, what weenie schedule is this ? Northern Illinois, Fresno State, and WoofWoof ? Spartans come in to Camp Randall, and we are the first real slap in the face you’ll be getting. So, The Badgers will have it more difficult than MSU by Sept. 26.
Enlightened Spartan: Don't get sold on the Irish just yet, and their over-inflated ego of an offense that scortched June "Cheater" Jonesless-Hawaii in Hawaii (that is just a joke). We've whipped their panties 9 of the last 12. It'll happen again, right after their tilt of the "wanna-bes vs. used-to-bes," Michigan and Notre Dame. And, no it won't have any bearing heading into Madison. We need to kick yer tail to be in the Big Ten race.
(6) Speaking of which, who is worse, Joe Michigan Fan or Joe Notre Dame Fan?
SpartyMSU: Michigan fans suck. I can and do respect all teams and their fans in the Big Ten and other. But Michigan fans are dicks, and they cannot deal with any verbal jousting or competitive jocularity. I think it comes due to their low self esteem fan base, who truly base their own identity to the Team. Sad really, so sad. It’s the only team I get personal threats from.
Wisc, Illinois, Ind., Notre Dame, NU, etc. We all have a good time at each other’s tailgates. But, with Michigan, its different. Its down right mean. I try to stay away form Ann Arbor on Game days.
Enlightened Spartan: Oh, God, Joe "my UM football stadium addition costs as much as your entire UM football stadium" Michigan Fan.
(7) What should everyone know about Michigan State football that you find very few people actually do know?
SpartyMSU: The pregame team walk, and the tradition of flipping pennies at the Spartan stature before the game..
Enlightend Spartan: Michigan State's football team is the only Big Ten squad mentioned in the book, The Undefeated, by Jim Dent. The book is about University of Oklahoma, their coach Bud Wilkinson, and the longest winning streak in college football history (47 games during the 1950s). MSU is noted repeatedly as a powerhouse of the era.
Ed. Note: Sparty MSU will be in Mad-Town for the game, so welcome them with open arms, and offer them a consoling beer when it’s all over!
1) Who's your quarterback?
Sparty MSU: The good thing for MSU is that we have 2 good QBs Kirk Cousins and Keith Nichol, and in the wings four star recruit Andrew Maxwell and Stud recruit Joe Boisture .. but at this point I think Kirk Cousins will lead the team on the field. Last year he was behind Brian Hoyer and had stats of 32-43-1 for a 74.4% comp rate. This spring I thought both QBs look sharp. I’m not too worried about the QB position…
Enlightened Spartan: 1) Actually, it really doesn't matter who our quarterbacks are, they equally shined and probably had the best Spring ball out of quarterbacks in recent memory. Both Keith Nichol and Kirk Cousins are mobile and have strong arms. Each are an improvement over our serviceable, but efficient, QB Brian Hoyer .
2) Who's your running back? And is your offensive line good enough to make them look
decent? Word from the Spring Game is they were a little porous. What on earth should we
expect from your offense?
SpartyMSU: For the spring game, as any spring game Lines go at half speed, and the
Spartans have been working on diversification of the offense. 2008 it was the Javon Ringer
show. He was good, why not go with your strengths. This year our backs are strong, talented,
but no Javon. So, we have to work in the passing game. And that’s what happened. Look at
the Spring Stats: 357 yards passing for both Green and the White team. Which was over
87% of the total offense for both teams, and they ran only 18 rushes each side. But for
passing the QBs were 29 for 43 (Kirk) and 20 – 28 (Keith).
Running backs will be Ashton Leggett, Andre Anderson, Caulton Ray and/or A.J.
Jimmerson. I think Leggett and Ray might start, but with a range of backups, they might
platoon.
Bottom line, the ball will be in the air more this year than last.
Enlightened Spartan: Our running backs can use some work, and I've never been sold on senior AJ Jimmerson -- so it will likely be a running back-by-committee (Ashton Leggett, Andre Anderson, Caulton Ray) and you may likely see true frosh blue chippers Ed Baker or Larry Caper get the pigskin plenty this fall. Offensive line actually might be the best its been under Dantonio -- they were piss poor last year and didn't reach its potential despite two big seniors on the line: case in point was the team's 3.4 yards per carry a year ago despite the workhorse, Javon Ringer. Our wideouts need to wipe the butter off their hands and hold onto the ball this year... but have lots of experience returning (Mark Dell, Blair White, BJ Cunningham, and Charlie Gantt all should be improved). The o-line can only improve, and Joel Nitchman, Rocco Cironi, and Joel Foreman have plenty of PT (and better footwork) to make this an improved unit. Bottom line: expect an evenly balanced offense in 2009, a far cry from the 3-yards-and-a-cloud-of-Ringer offense last year. I expect we will be a little more efficient, in all honesty. Mark Dell may be the most improved player in the Big Ten and may rack up big-time stats behind our great QBs and a more balanced offense; he was injury plauged for most of the second half of 2008.
3) Dantonio seems to have righted the attitude issues in East Lansing. He took his first year's close losses to quality teams and turned them into close wins in his second season. He seems to get the most out of his players. However, since Michigan State last played in the Rose Bowl every team in the Big Ten except Indiana and Minnesota has made the trip. Is this the year that Michigan State makes their triumphant return (skipping Ohio State and getting Penn State and Iowa at home is a plus), or are the Spartans still a year or two away?
SpartyMSU: Can’t put the cart before the horse. Sure, all Spartans are keenly aware of the painful eons its been since we made a trip to Pasadena. But, we will return. With so much mediocre history behind us, no one in the program wants to rush in for a One and Done type of season. We are all on board for a long term rise with staying power. We want to get back to the Rose Bowl, its been since 1988 (when we beat USC 20 – 17), I still have a rose on my bedroom mirror as a daily reminder .. but, we are all behind Coach D, and have backed his long term approach. If we get to the Rose Bowl this year, We’ll take it.
Bottom Line: SpartyMSU has predicted it, so I’m packing my Bag and have Hotel reservations !
Enlightened Spartan: MSU seems to be a year away, but is improving across the board, in ALL areas of the team. I think we all should take a closer look at Dantonio's recipe... teach sound fundamental football (reduce turnovers), add in your typical, Pro Set offense to reduce spread-offense mistakes (three things can happen when you throw the football, and two are bad), add more fundamentals (reduce penalties), move to a bare-knuckles defense instead of a stunt defense, add more fundamentals (play to your position) and what do you get? A focus on defense with a minimal mistake offense, that plays games to the end. Dantonio is all about letting the other team make the mistakes as the game wears on, call their bluff, take advantage, and win on fundamentals. Results are improving as the cupboard becomes stocked with better talent.
While I'm not a believer in the recruiting services per se (eg, Keith Nichol helped Oklahoma to a Rivals-ranked Top 5 recruiting class, and now he plays for MSU), I believe you can get an IMPRESSION from them -- and the impression is that the Spartans are gaining better talent and more players who care about character & values to campus to play football. While Greg Jones is already emblematic of this on defense, you should really begin to see much more of this on the playing field as depth across the team has really begun to set in.
So, are we are year away? Probably... as we have a ton of talent returning next year. but that football is a funny shape, and you never know what might happen.
(3) Holding Iowa to 13 points was impressive, but overall the MSU defense wasn't great, and got scorched by Penn State, Ohio State, and dinged up pretty badly at Cal, too. What will make them better this season? Just how good is Greg Jones, and who else will shine for MSU?
SpartyMSU: No one in the Big Ten was as good as OSU or PSU last year, period. They were the cream of the Big Ten.. But to say the D wasn’t that great, well… ok. Not great, but we were good and better than most others in the Big Ten. We did end up in third place in the Big Ten.
Lets roll back the video Tape: MSU wasn’t First in “D”, just had middle of the road in “D” stats for 2008, MSU was # 5 in total “D” in the Big Ten in 2008, #1 in Red Zone “D”. #1 in fourth down conv. “D”. In terms of Big Ten leading tacklers, MSU had the #3 (Greg Jones), #13, #15. Of the top 15 tacklers in the Big Ten, only NU had more than 1 player, with only two. Spartans had three. And of those three, two return.
As for this season, we only get better on “D”…. 9 out of the 12 top MSU tacklers return. The D Line lost 2 starters, but are back filling with existing experienced players. LBs: Starters return. For Secondary, we lost stud Otis Wiley, but 75% of the ints. come back to the field this year, and everyone has starting experience. IN 2009, behind the “D” line, we only added depth this year.
Enlightened Spartan: I would argue the MSU defense was pretty good last year -- depends on how you define as "good." It was called on in some pretty tough situations (eg. Iowa, Wisconsin) to make big plays down the stretch when its offense, and Ringer's running, was anemic. Our wideouts dropped lots of passes last year. It was our defense that time and again bailed out MSU... at the end of games. That is Dantonio coaching, and it worked. The Spartans demonstrated that they weren't in the same league as JoePa or Ohio State -- and it showed. It's not all in the statistics -- and, we won 9 games, largely as a result of our defense, solid fundamentals, and superior coaching. Our defensive backfield has significant experience, size & speed, and is very deep.... reminds me of an Ohio State secondary. Our linebacking corps is the best we've had in 15 years, (ranked #7 nationally by Phil Steele, with Greg Jones, Eric Gordon, Adam Decker, and Josh Rouse. Lots of depth and experience here. Watch out for Trevor Anderson on the Dline, who may end up leading the Big Ten in sacks. Dantonio's best defense yet... and the majority return for another year.
(4) Starting with the painful (for us) game in 2004, the home team has won the last four games in this series, but the last two were very close; what do you think will be different this year that the Spartans will leave Madison with a win?
SpartyMSU: Please see my posting: Preview - Spartans 2009 Game 4: Wisconsin [ed. note: not sure where Sparty got the lyric sheet for On Wisconsin, but he may want to check that again.]
Spartans win…[ed. note: big! SpartyMSU sees it 28-15] !
Enlightened Spartan: It won't be different. It will be very close again. Another FG game. Yes, we'll win. Your dumb coach will screw it up again, thank you very much.
(5) The Badgers start off with a painfully soft schedule. While yours isn't all-world, the road game in South Bend the week before your trip West won't be a cake-walk (not withstanding the impressive 6-straight road wins over the Irish). Do you see the Notre Dame game as a benefit to you coming into Madison, or will that longstanding, heated rivalry take some spirit (and maybe some healthy bodies) away from the Badger game?
SpartyMSU: Spartans LOVE this rivalry (see recent posting: Preview - Spartans 2009 Game 3: Notre Dame)
We have to take the Tom Izzo attitude: play anyone, any time, anywhere. Yeah, we might be a little banged up, but I think the Spartans will know more about the Spartans, then Wisconsin will have their own insight. Come on, what weenie schedule is this ? Northern Illinois, Fresno State, and WoofWoof ? Spartans come in to Camp Randall, and we are the first real slap in the face you’ll be getting. So, The Badgers will have it more difficult than MSU by Sept. 26.
Enlightened Spartan: Don't get sold on the Irish just yet, and their over-inflated ego of an offense that scortched June "Cheater" Jonesless-Hawaii in Hawaii (that is just a joke). We've whipped their panties 9 of the last 12. It'll happen again, right after their tilt of the "wanna-bes vs. used-to-bes," Michigan and Notre Dame. And, no it won't have any bearing heading into Madison. We need to kick yer tail to be in the Big Ten race.
(6) Speaking of which, who is worse, Joe Michigan Fan or Joe Notre Dame Fan?
SpartyMSU: Michigan fans suck. I can and do respect all teams and their fans in the Big Ten and other. But Michigan fans are dicks, and they cannot deal with any verbal jousting or competitive jocularity. I think it comes due to their low self esteem fan base, who truly base their own identity to the Team. Sad really, so sad. It’s the only team I get personal threats from.
Wisc, Illinois, Ind., Notre Dame, NU, etc. We all have a good time at each other’s tailgates. But, with Michigan, its different. Its down right mean. I try to stay away form Ann Arbor on Game days.
Enlightened Spartan: Oh, God, Joe "my UM football stadium addition costs as much as your entire UM football stadium" Michigan Fan.
(7) What should everyone know about Michigan State football that you find very few people actually do know?
SpartyMSU: The pregame team walk, and the tradition of flipping pennies at the Spartan stature before the game..
Enlightend Spartan: Michigan State's football team is the only Big Ten squad mentioned in the book, The Undefeated, by Jim Dent. The book is about University of Oklahoma, their coach Bud Wilkinson, and the longest winning streak in college football history (47 games during the 1950s). MSU is noted repeatedly as a powerhouse of the era.
Ed. Note: Sparty MSU will be in Mad-Town for the game, so welcome them with open arms, and offer them a consoling beer when it’s all over!
Media Days: Coach Speak
(1) I'm jealous of Adam Hoge, Badger blogger at Bucky's 5th Quarter. He's attending Big Ten Media Days, and is providing updates. Good on him. In addition to the convenience of living in Chicago and working at BTN, something tells me Adam is single and without kids. (As a 2008 grad, he's also young enough to have a handle on Twitter.) But maybe he's just better at multitasking than me. Anyway, I'm jealous.
(2) The live chat UW set up with Coach Bielema today was what one would expect: thin on substance. Nonetheless, I think he gave two comments we can learn from: (a) expect a lot of Lance Kendricks and Garrett Graham together (Q: "I thought Garrett Graham was kind of a breakout player last year. Can you give us one or two that you think might 'breakout' this season?" A: "I believe one offensive guy is Lance Kendricks. We really felt good about him last year going into the MSU game, but unfortunately broke his leg."); and (b) JJ Watt will play some tackle depending on the game situation (I predict passing downs) (Q: "If the opener were tomorrow, who would you anticipate being the starting front four defensivlely" You mentioned JJ Watt & I've read you like his cersatility, but will he start inside?" A: "I can name our top six: Schofield [DE], Watt, Moore [DT, some DE], Stehle [DT], Kelly [DE], and Butrym [DT]. It would probably be some combination of those four. J.J. is one of our d-lineman who can play inside or outside [Moore is the other] depending on game plan and the type of offense we are going against.")
Ok, so neither of these is earth shattering. I think everyone expects a lot of 2-tight end sets (I've only written about it somewhere in the neighborhood of 1000 times). But I was wondering about Watt. Originally I thought of him as an undersized tackle, but he's listed on the two-deep as a starting end. I think this clarifies that. He is probably the starting end (opposite Schofield), but may move inside from time to time. I'm guessing passing downs because guys like Kelly, Nzegwu, and Mains are pass-rush specialists (they have to be given their size). So you throw them in to rush the quarterback, but keep Watt in on the play as a solid penetrating tackle.
Pretty much the same story out of the opening address to the media today (video embedded below): three solid tight ends (with Turner playing some fullback, too); Kendricks looking to fill Beckum's H-back role, and effectively the same rundown on the defensive line. Combining the statement he made in the chat and the statement he made to the media, it's looking like: Watt, Moore (he pegged him as inside), Stehle, and Schofield.
Last thing: Bielema thinks the Badgers' success at home has hindered high profile home-and-home scheduling. Wouldn't surprise me. Generally scheduling is a tough thing to do, and our home record doesn't look too appealing to opposing teams with resumes similar to ours.
Don't have the interviews with Graham, McFadden, or Schofield up on the BTN yet, so I'm in the dark on those.
(2) The live chat UW set up with Coach Bielema today was what one would expect: thin on substance. Nonetheless, I think he gave two comments we can learn from: (a) expect a lot of Lance Kendricks and Garrett Graham together (Q: "I thought Garrett Graham was kind of a breakout player last year. Can you give us one or two that you think might 'breakout' this season?" A: "I believe one offensive guy is Lance Kendricks. We really felt good about him last year going into the MSU game, but unfortunately broke his leg."); and (b) JJ Watt will play some tackle depending on the game situation (I predict passing downs) (Q: "If the opener were tomorrow, who would you anticipate being the starting front four defensivlely" You mentioned JJ Watt & I've read you like his cersatility, but will he start inside?" A: "I can name our top six: Schofield [DE], Watt, Moore [DT, some DE], Stehle [DT], Kelly [DE], and Butrym [DT]. It would probably be some combination of those four. J.J. is one of our d-lineman who can play inside or outside [Moore is the other] depending on game plan and the type of offense we are going against.")
Ok, so neither of these is earth shattering. I think everyone expects a lot of 2-tight end sets (I've only written about it somewhere in the neighborhood of 1000 times). But I was wondering about Watt. Originally I thought of him as an undersized tackle, but he's listed on the two-deep as a starting end. I think this clarifies that. He is probably the starting end (opposite Schofield), but may move inside from time to time. I'm guessing passing downs because guys like Kelly, Nzegwu, and Mains are pass-rush specialists (they have to be given their size). So you throw them in to rush the quarterback, but keep Watt in on the play as a solid penetrating tackle.
Pretty much the same story out of the opening address to the media today (video embedded below): three solid tight ends (with Turner playing some fullback, too); Kendricks looking to fill Beckum's H-back role, and effectively the same rundown on the defensive line. Combining the statement he made in the chat and the statement he made to the media, it's looking like: Watt, Moore (he pegged him as inside), Stehle, and Schofield.
Last thing: Bielema thinks the Badgers' success at home has hindered high profile home-and-home scheduling. Wouldn't surprise me. Generally scheduling is a tough thing to do, and our home record doesn't look too appealing to opposing teams with resumes similar to ours.
Don't have the interviews with Graham, McFadden, or Schofield up on the BTN yet, so I'm in the dark on those.
Badger Blogger Roundtable: 2009 Offense
A handful of Badger Bloggers got together to discuss the upcoming football season. Joining me are Scott Tappa of Badgercentric, Phil Mitten of Hoops Marinara (a Badger basketball blog -- nice alliteration on that one, no?), and Adam Hoge of Bucky's 5th Quarter. We started with the easier task, making sense of the offense:
What's your take on the WR's? Is Gilreath really the #1? Where does Jefferson fit in post multiple concussions?
Bucky’s Fifth Quarter: Gilreath is No. 1 right now, but I'm convinced Nick Toon will be a starter by the opener. Whether that means he takes Isaac Anderson's spot or Gilreath's, we shall see, but Toon has great size and he proved last year he could make some big catches. As for Jefferson, I think it is all up to him. I didn't really like his attitude last season after a pretty good freshman year and I think that had a lot to do with his sub-par season. Attitude plays a big part in getting over concussions as well. Jefferson has the tools to make the UW receivers a scary group, but that doesn't necessarily mean he will make it happen.
BadgerCentric: Don't think Gilreath is the #1, not strong enough. Think it's gotta be Toon. Jefferson is the deep threat, can't see sending him over the middle any more. I have faith in Gilreath and Anderson to find openings in coverage, Brandon Williams types.
Hoops Marinara: Gilreath may be our best, but he's certainly not a #1. Honestly, I wish the best for Jefferson to contribute, but at this point I am hoping for Toon and/or Anderson to pass him by, preferrably Toon so we can have a steady option on the outside to go with Graham on the inside. Gilreath is slightly overrated as a return man (still waiting for that first TD!), but he does have the ability to break a big play. Maybe Jefferson could develop into our jump ball specialist in the red zone. Work on those hands son!
On Wisconsin: I think Gilreath was #1 last season by default -- Anderson had been hurt and Toon and Jefferson were far less experienced. I think he starts this season #3, as the slot receiver. Toon probably has the most talent, although I sometimes think we all get distracted by his last name. Anderson is a better pure receiver than Gilreath. Maybe not as fast, but better hands and better size. Anderson and Toon are your starting two. Gilreath is dangerous in space, but I think he’s #3 based on his size and hands. Jefferson? He’s a good kid, but I worry a lot about his head. I can’t see him starting over any of those three, so he spells Toon and Anderson. I think this is the best group of receivers – especially when you factor in the tight ends – in more than five years (with the depth, better than Williams, Orr, and Daniels). I’m excited about our passing game . . . IF . . .
The Running Backs? Anyone else think Brown may take more than 1/3 of the snaps this season? Worried about depth?
Hoops Marinara: What me, worry? No, I think the depth is fine at RB. Wisconsin has always done well with the next man in philosophy, so the Badgers can handle a minor injury here and there and use a Ewing or an Erik Smith as needed. I am okay with Brown taking a full 3rd of the snaps if it means keeping JC the Messiah fresh.
Bucky’s Fifth Quarter: I don't think Brown gets a third of the snaps unless John Clay has to battle some injuries. Still, a fourth of the carries seems realistic because of Brown's talent. I'm not worried about depth because Montee Ball provides some emergency insurance much like Brown did during his freshman season. The difference is that UW needed Brown because Lance Smith couldn't play in road games, but if Wisconsin needs to use Ball this season because of injuries then they could pull the red-shirt early.
BadgerCentric: Hadn't thought of it, but I agree Brown might take more than a third of the snaps, a combination of his being pretty good, Clay being in his first season as the main guy, and probably more third downs than we'd like.
On Wisconsin: I’m still not sold on Clay as the every-down back. The position takes more than just running the ball hard and I think Chryst’s offense looks for more flexibility with the back (see, e.g., Calhoun, Brian). Brown provides a lot more of that. I think Brown could see as many as 40% of the snaps, though probably only about 1/4 of the carries. Regardless, if they stay healthy, I honestly think this is the best 1-2 combination in the Big Ten this year.
Tight Ends? So Graham is a beast, how dangerous is Kendricks? Will Turner really just be a fullback already at the line? Will we ever even see a true fullback with this offense?
On Wisconsin: Kendricks is dangerous enough to line up wide as a receiver every now and again, which makes sending in the right personnel tough for the defensive coordinator. I like that flexibility and with him and Graham out there you see a great 2-tight end set. That said, Mickey Turner played very well last season as a traditional tight end and several times proved he could make the catches we need that #2 tight end to make. Remember in 2006 when we went the whole season without a fullback? Worked out ok. I suspect Turner will play a fullback-ish role, but I think it will most often come after he lines up as a second tight end. I think we see very little of a traditional fullback this season. At least that’s my hope – our personnel are built for the 2-tight end set.
Hoops Marinara: I anticipate the Graham/Kendricks combo to surpass the Beckum/Graham combo ... of last season. That means accumulating more than 2008's 60+ catches, 800+ yards and 5 TDs. Very doable as long as they are both healthy.
Bucky’s Fifth Quarter: Lance Kendricks is very dangerous and we've seen in past years how much better UW's offense is when they have two tight ends that can catch the ball. As far as Turner goes, I think he gets a good amount of snaps at the traditional fullback position. The fullback has been pretty important in recent years and if they need to use him there they will.
BadgerCentric: I can see fullbacks still playing a part of this offense, seems like we're still recruiting that type of kid. Turner's a blocker, not much more. With Graham and a solid group of wide receivers, I don't see Kendricks catching more than 35 or 40 passes, max, even if he's a lot better.
And the biggie . . . who's it going to be? Who should it be? And why?
BadgerCentric: It's going to be Sherer, at least at the start. It should be ... Budmayr if he's even close to being ready. A reach? Maybe. But my sense is he's the best passer of this group, he probably wouldn't be much worse than the other guys this year, and we could have him start for four years.
On Wisconsin: I guess I just don’t trust inexperienced players and I think Sherer got a bad rap. He played very well after his first start (Iowa; that can hardly be blamed on him). He also got the ball to his WRs more than either Evridge or Donovan did, which is a positive. Did he look bad against FSU? In the second half, but he had little time to throw the ball and the offense was predictable at that point. I think we’ll see pretty solid (not spectacular) play from Dustin this year and the real battle will be redshirt Freshman Budmayr vs. Sophomore Phillips in 2010.
Hoops Marinara: Scherer to start. But it should be Phillips from Day 1. He's put a year in on the scout team already. Phillips has the running instincts that has brought Wisconsin success in the past (ie: Samuels, Bollinger) but a better arm.
Bucky’s Fifth Quarter: As of today it is going to be Dustin Sherer and should be Dustin Sherer because Curt Phillips and Jon Budmayr haven't shown enough yet to be considered a starter. Still, I find it slightly peculiar that Sherer isn't one of the three players representing the Badgers at Big Ten Media Days this year. We know -- and I think the coaches know -- that this is still Dustin Sherer we are talking about. He has never shown us anything spectacular and if Curt Phillips comes on strong during camp then it wouldn't surprise me at all if Sherer didn't start the season at quarterback. At the very least, I doubt Sherer starts all 12 regular season games.
I guess on offense all that leaves is the line: How will it be with three new starters? Was Bielema serious that Konz could push Oglesby out of the starter's spot, or was he just making a point to Josh? How will Bscherer be at guard? Anyone else worried about a lack of depth at guard? Will anything stop the rash of false starts and holding penalties?
Bucky’s Fifth Quarter: I think the Peter Konz chatter was a motivational ploy to get Oglesby going. We are getting close to that point where if Oglesby isn't starting now then he might never be starting. Bscherer will be fine at guard, but probably not spectacular. Fans should be worried about the depth right now, but I think guys like Travis Frederick and Jake Current will ease those worries by the end of the season. If the false starts and holding penalties don't stop then that reflects back on the coaching staff. I think that is one of a handful of improvements that we have to see this season or the hot seat will start scorching Bielema's rear end.
On Wisconsin: Oglesby was a 5-star because of his size, but Konz wasn’t a legit threat to his position; Josh will start. The fact that they moved Bscherer to guard, rather than demoting Oglesby, tells me Josh is doing ok, if maybe not living up to all the (probably unfair) hype. I see injuries at the guard position as a real concern. Freshman lineman aren’t something you like to see, and that’s where we are if Bscherer or Nagy goes down. Bielema and Chryst need to end the penalties. I’ve never coached football, so I don’t know how to do it, but it needs to happen. If it does, I think we’re looking at a solid line, maybe as good as last year (especially considering how many games Oglesby and Nagy played significant minutes in).
BadgerCentric: The line won't be as good as last year, but I'm not worried about it. Carimi is a stud, Moffitt's solid, and the other three starters have starting experience. I could see Konz beating out Oglesby, he struggled mightily at times last year. Bscherer I see being a Matt Lawrence type, someone who's not going to be a huge plus but isn't going to be a liability.
Hoops Marinara: I am looking for a hungrier group of lineman this year that could surprise some people. Bielema is not afraid to call guys out (remember P.J. Hill's "toughen-up pills"?), so Oglesby needs to get it together quickly. Everything looks if he finally gets it, even the depth. Unfortunately, I think as long as Bielema is the head coach some undisciplined play will be the norm. We know he's less of a cool collected guy than Barry, plus he's spread himself too thin.
What's your take on the WR's? Is Gilreath really the #1? Where does Jefferson fit in post multiple concussions?
Bucky’s Fifth Quarter: Gilreath is No. 1 right now, but I'm convinced Nick Toon will be a starter by the opener. Whether that means he takes Isaac Anderson's spot or Gilreath's, we shall see, but Toon has great size and he proved last year he could make some big catches. As for Jefferson, I think it is all up to him. I didn't really like his attitude last season after a pretty good freshman year and I think that had a lot to do with his sub-par season. Attitude plays a big part in getting over concussions as well. Jefferson has the tools to make the UW receivers a scary group, but that doesn't necessarily mean he will make it happen.
BadgerCentric: Don't think Gilreath is the #1, not strong enough. Think it's gotta be Toon. Jefferson is the deep threat, can't see sending him over the middle any more. I have faith in Gilreath and Anderson to find openings in coverage, Brandon Williams types.
Hoops Marinara: Gilreath may be our best, but he's certainly not a #1. Honestly, I wish the best for Jefferson to contribute, but at this point I am hoping for Toon and/or Anderson to pass him by, preferrably Toon so we can have a steady option on the outside to go with Graham on the inside. Gilreath is slightly overrated as a return man (still waiting for that first TD!), but he does have the ability to break a big play. Maybe Jefferson could develop into our jump ball specialist in the red zone. Work on those hands son!
On Wisconsin: I think Gilreath was #1 last season by default -- Anderson had been hurt and Toon and Jefferson were far less experienced. I think he starts this season #3, as the slot receiver. Toon probably has the most talent, although I sometimes think we all get distracted by his last name. Anderson is a better pure receiver than Gilreath. Maybe not as fast, but better hands and better size. Anderson and Toon are your starting two. Gilreath is dangerous in space, but I think he’s #3 based on his size and hands. Jefferson? He’s a good kid, but I worry a lot about his head. I can’t see him starting over any of those three, so he spells Toon and Anderson. I think this is the best group of receivers – especially when you factor in the tight ends – in more than five years (with the depth, better than Williams, Orr, and Daniels). I’m excited about our passing game . . . IF . . .
The Running Backs? Anyone else think Brown may take more than 1/3 of the snaps this season? Worried about depth?
Hoops Marinara: What me, worry? No, I think the depth is fine at RB. Wisconsin has always done well with the next man in philosophy, so the Badgers can handle a minor injury here and there and use a Ewing or an Erik Smith as needed. I am okay with Brown taking a full 3rd of the snaps if it means keeping JC the Messiah fresh.
Bucky’s Fifth Quarter: I don't think Brown gets a third of the snaps unless John Clay has to battle some injuries. Still, a fourth of the carries seems realistic because of Brown's talent. I'm not worried about depth because Montee Ball provides some emergency insurance much like Brown did during his freshman season. The difference is that UW needed Brown because Lance Smith couldn't play in road games, but if Wisconsin needs to use Ball this season because of injuries then they could pull the red-shirt early.
BadgerCentric: Hadn't thought of it, but I agree Brown might take more than a third of the snaps, a combination of his being pretty good, Clay being in his first season as the main guy, and probably more third downs than we'd like.
On Wisconsin: I’m still not sold on Clay as the every-down back. The position takes more than just running the ball hard and I think Chryst’s offense looks for more flexibility with the back (see, e.g., Calhoun, Brian). Brown provides a lot more of that. I think Brown could see as many as 40% of the snaps, though probably only about 1/4 of the carries. Regardless, if they stay healthy, I honestly think this is the best 1-2 combination in the Big Ten this year.
Tight Ends? So Graham is a beast, how dangerous is Kendricks? Will Turner really just be a fullback already at the line? Will we ever even see a true fullback with this offense?
On Wisconsin: Kendricks is dangerous enough to line up wide as a receiver every now and again, which makes sending in the right personnel tough for the defensive coordinator. I like that flexibility and with him and Graham out there you see a great 2-tight end set. That said, Mickey Turner played very well last season as a traditional tight end and several times proved he could make the catches we need that #2 tight end to make. Remember in 2006 when we went the whole season without a fullback? Worked out ok. I suspect Turner will play a fullback-ish role, but I think it will most often come after he lines up as a second tight end. I think we see very little of a traditional fullback this season. At least that’s my hope – our personnel are built for the 2-tight end set.
Hoops Marinara: I anticipate the Graham/Kendricks combo to surpass the Beckum/Graham combo ... of last season. That means accumulating more than 2008's 60+ catches, 800+ yards and 5 TDs. Very doable as long as they are both healthy.
Bucky’s Fifth Quarter: Lance Kendricks is very dangerous and we've seen in past years how much better UW's offense is when they have two tight ends that can catch the ball. As far as Turner goes, I think he gets a good amount of snaps at the traditional fullback position. The fullback has been pretty important in recent years and if they need to use him there they will.
BadgerCentric: I can see fullbacks still playing a part of this offense, seems like we're still recruiting that type of kid. Turner's a blocker, not much more. With Graham and a solid group of wide receivers, I don't see Kendricks catching more than 35 or 40 passes, max, even if he's a lot better.
And the biggie . . . who's it going to be? Who should it be? And why?
BadgerCentric: It's going to be Sherer, at least at the start. It should be ... Budmayr if he's even close to being ready. A reach? Maybe. But my sense is he's the best passer of this group, he probably wouldn't be much worse than the other guys this year, and we could have him start for four years.
On Wisconsin: I guess I just don’t trust inexperienced players and I think Sherer got a bad rap. He played very well after his first start (Iowa; that can hardly be blamed on him). He also got the ball to his WRs more than either Evridge or Donovan did, which is a positive. Did he look bad against FSU? In the second half, but he had little time to throw the ball and the offense was predictable at that point. I think we’ll see pretty solid (not spectacular) play from Dustin this year and the real battle will be redshirt Freshman Budmayr vs. Sophomore Phillips in 2010.
Hoops Marinara: Scherer to start. But it should be Phillips from Day 1. He's put a year in on the scout team already. Phillips has the running instincts that has brought Wisconsin success in the past (ie: Samuels, Bollinger) but a better arm.
Bucky’s Fifth Quarter: As of today it is going to be Dustin Sherer and should be Dustin Sherer because Curt Phillips and Jon Budmayr haven't shown enough yet to be considered a starter. Still, I find it slightly peculiar that Sherer isn't one of the three players representing the Badgers at Big Ten Media Days this year. We know -- and I think the coaches know -- that this is still Dustin Sherer we are talking about. He has never shown us anything spectacular and if Curt Phillips comes on strong during camp then it wouldn't surprise me at all if Sherer didn't start the season at quarterback. At the very least, I doubt Sherer starts all 12 regular season games.
I guess on offense all that leaves is the line: How will it be with three new starters? Was Bielema serious that Konz could push Oglesby out of the starter's spot, or was he just making a point to Josh? How will Bscherer be at guard? Anyone else worried about a lack of depth at guard? Will anything stop the rash of false starts and holding penalties?
Bucky’s Fifth Quarter: I think the Peter Konz chatter was a motivational ploy to get Oglesby going. We are getting close to that point where if Oglesby isn't starting now then he might never be starting. Bscherer will be fine at guard, but probably not spectacular. Fans should be worried about the depth right now, but I think guys like Travis Frederick and Jake Current will ease those worries by the end of the season. If the false starts and holding penalties don't stop then that reflects back on the coaching staff. I think that is one of a handful of improvements that we have to see this season or the hot seat will start scorching Bielema's rear end.
On Wisconsin: Oglesby was a 5-star because of his size, but Konz wasn’t a legit threat to his position; Josh will start. The fact that they moved Bscherer to guard, rather than demoting Oglesby, tells me Josh is doing ok, if maybe not living up to all the (probably unfair) hype. I see injuries at the guard position as a real concern. Freshman lineman aren’t something you like to see, and that’s where we are if Bscherer or Nagy goes down. Bielema and Chryst need to end the penalties. I’ve never coached football, so I don’t know how to do it, but it needs to happen. If it does, I think we’re looking at a solid line, maybe as good as last year (especially considering how many games Oglesby and Nagy played significant minutes in).
BadgerCentric: The line won't be as good as last year, but I'm not worried about it. Carimi is a stud, Moffitt's solid, and the other three starters have starting experience. I could see Konz beating out Oglesby, he struggled mightily at times last year. Bscherer I see being a Matt Lawrence type, someone who's not going to be a huge plus but isn't going to be a liability.
Hoops Marinara: I am looking for a hungrier group of lineman this year that could surprise some people. Bielema is not afraid to call guys out (remember P.J. Hill's "toughen-up pills"?), so Oglesby needs to get it together quickly. Everything looks if he finally gets it, even the depth. Unfortunately, I think as long as Bielema is the head coach some undisciplined play will be the norm. We know he's less of a cool collected guy than Barry, plus he's spread himself too thin.
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