I'll get my road trip review up soon, but in the mean time, a couple of thoughts from this game (on top of these).
I think when Paul Chryst takes a look at the game tapes, he'll see that Zach Brown was often (maybe always) open for the outlet on passing plays when he left protect to go to the flat. Against a team that was dominating the line of scrimmage as much as OSU was, I would think we'd want to hit that pass a few times to slow them down just a little.
That said, I thought Chyrst called a solid game. Bielema's call to fake the kick was brilliant. There wasn't one person among the 108 thousand not on the Badger sideline who saw that coming. That's why it worked.
Doeren, too, called a nice game. The Badger defense came to play. After such a big blow, there's one sure bright spot: the play of the Badger defense. Now, some perspective: the last drive of the first half was unfortunate. I didn't think it was the tipping point (the second INT was, then the kickoff return was the nail in the coffin), but as Potrykus points out for the Journal Sentinel, fans are starting to wonder why we keep seeing these late rallies work. I actually called the "give up a long pass for a big play" defensive alignment to the folks around me in the crowd just before it happened. The Buckeye fan in front of me thanked me for making the call.
Sometimes I should just keep my mouth shut.
The Buckeyes didn't do anything in the second half, but before everyone declares how bad Pryor is, consider that it would have been irresponsible for Tressel to let him open it up with a 15-point lead.
Nonetheless, solid effort by our defense. Particularly O'Brien Schofield who was rallying the troops even at the very end. That's leadership. And at least those of us up in section 8C appreciated his fire.
We knew we couldn't make the mistakes we made against Minnesota and win. We did, and lost.
Iowa is another opportunity and one I think we have a good chance in. But we'll need to limit the mistakes.
And if their line is dominating us in the passing game, Paul, look for Zach coming out of the backfield a few times. It was there on Saturday.
Showing posts with label chryst. Show all posts
Showing posts with label chryst. Show all posts
Doeren: Credit Where Due
The defense was getting shredded in the first half. At halftime Doeren made the adjustments needed. The secondary was still soft, and Fresno State's quarterback's mistakes contributed, but the bottom line is Fresno scored only three points in the second half. He couldn't do any more with the players he had. That was solid coaching.
Likewise, Chryst earned his money on Saturday. The setup and play to Anderson was spectacular, as was Clay's touchdown. Well played.
Likewise, Chryst earned his money on Saturday. The setup and play to Anderson was spectacular, as was Clay's touchdown. Well played.
This is a Passing Offense
Tolzien is the starter. Good news.
I don't have anything against Phillips, but it seems like fans get all amped about him more because of his recruit rankings than anything else. Yes, it's nice that he can run. That's a bonus. But in Chryst's offense delivering the ball on time is more important . . . much more important. So I was wrong about Sherer (outspokenly wrong; put me in my place wrong). But the bigger picture for me remains the same: our quarterback needs to be able to deliver the ball reliably.
When Phillips is described as "erratic" during good times (and throws four picks in eleven attempts during bad), that's not a good sign. Will he improve? Of course he will. But for now, Chryst needs a guy who can deliver the ball and with the player makers we have on the receiving end, Graham, Toon, Kendricks, Anderson, Gilreath, Appleton, etc., it's that much more important that we use them.
I don't have anything against Phillips, but it seems like fans get all amped about him more because of his recruit rankings than anything else. Yes, it's nice that he can run. That's a bonus. But in Chryst's offense delivering the ball on time is more important . . . much more important. So I was wrong about Sherer (outspokenly wrong; put me in my place wrong). But the bigger picture for me remains the same: our quarterback needs to be able to deliver the ball reliably.
When Phillips is described as "erratic" during good times (and throws four picks in eleven attempts during bad), that's not a good sign. Will he improve? Of course he will. But for now, Chryst needs a guy who can deliver the ball and with the player makers we have on the receiving end, Graham, Toon, Kendricks, Anderson, Gilreath, Appleton, etc., it's that much more important that we use them.
The Problem With Potential
The Badgers have a big decision to make (again) at quarterback. It's no secret that Chryst and Bielema have said if the competition is close this fall, they will go with the guy with more upside -- the younger guy who will have more time to develop. That's a not-so-subtle nod to Curt Phillips.
Indeed, every report out of practice this week indicates Phillips is the guy (Adam Hoge says Phillips took over 60% of the snaps yesterday). Jeff Potrykus (Milwaukee Journal Sentinel) hedged and said maybe the staff knows what Sherer brings to the table, and they are just trying to evaluate where the other guys are. Maybe. Probably not (the coaches provided all the clues needed to connect the dots prior to the Donovan and Evridge decisions, I have to assume the same is true this year).
According to those practice reports, while Dustin Sherer still makes bad decisions, Phillips is still "erratic" and also throws picks (to quote Potrykus this week: "Phillips still isn't a polished passer. Nevertheless, more often than not the ball arrives on time and in a place that allows the receiver to make a play." [In a different article] "However, [Phillips'] throwing was erratic."). Based on these reviews, it sounds as though the coaches are implementing the above theory: if it's close, go with the guy still developing. So here we go.
Generally I don't disagree with the theory: Phillips will continue getting better, so let's go with him rather than someone who's likely already peaked (or near it). The problem comes when we're in a tight game -- maybe down a score -- and Phillips has been playing badly: throwing incompletions and picks, trying to do too much with his feet while our best receivers in 5 or more years languish unused. Do you put someone else in?
With all the talk about Scott Tolzein being a safe #2, wouldn't you rather have the guy who has the bigger arm and the potential for bigger plays lead you back (not to mention 7 career starts): you know, like the strikes to David Gilreath in last year's Illinois game and Isaac Anderson in the Minnesota game? Do the Badgers then effectively end up with a two-quarterback system? That dog don't hunt.Last season when Bielema addressed the quarterback derby he talked about the obligation to go with the guy who gives the best chance of winning today, not next year. If Chryst and Bielema have in the back of their heads that maybe Sherer is really that guy, and not Phillips, will they be too quick to give Phillips the hook? We can't have that.
Now, I've been a Sherer proponent, but the chorus is pretty loud that he hasn't made the strides the Badgers need him to. Assuming that's the case (and the coaches and folks attending practice know better than me), then it's time for someone else.The coaches are at the practices and want to win even more than I do. I trust they will make the right decision on the quarterback. But that doesn't mean I'm not nervous about it. I think it's next Wednesday that the starter is announced.
Whomever we go with, it's got to be concrete. Period. Can you give a guy the hook if he's awful (see Evridge vs. Penn State)? Yes, but if they have any doubts about their decision it will end badly.
Pick someone and stick with him.
Indeed, every report out of practice this week indicates Phillips is the guy (Adam Hoge says Phillips took over 60% of the snaps yesterday). Jeff Potrykus (Milwaukee Journal Sentinel) hedged and said maybe the staff knows what Sherer brings to the table, and they are just trying to evaluate where the other guys are. Maybe. Probably not (the coaches provided all the clues needed to connect the dots prior to the Donovan and Evridge decisions, I have to assume the same is true this year).
According to those practice reports, while Dustin Sherer still makes bad decisions, Phillips is still "erratic" and also throws picks (to quote Potrykus this week: "Phillips still isn't a polished passer. Nevertheless, more often than not the ball arrives on time and in a place that allows the receiver to make a play." [In a different article] "However, [Phillips'] throwing was erratic."). Based on these reviews, it sounds as though the coaches are implementing the above theory: if it's close, go with the guy still developing. So here we go.
Generally I don't disagree with the theory: Phillips will continue getting better, so let's go with him rather than someone who's likely already peaked (or near it). The problem comes when we're in a tight game -- maybe down a score -- and Phillips has been playing badly: throwing incompletions and picks, trying to do too much with his feet while our best receivers in 5 or more years languish unused. Do you put someone else in?
With all the talk about Scott Tolzein being a safe #2, wouldn't you rather have the guy who has the bigger arm and the potential for bigger plays lead you back (not to mention 7 career starts): you know, like the strikes to David Gilreath in last year's Illinois game and Isaac Anderson in the Minnesota game? Do the Badgers then effectively end up with a two-quarterback system? That dog don't hunt.Last season when Bielema addressed the quarterback derby he talked about the obligation to go with the guy who gives the best chance of winning today, not next year. If Chryst and Bielema have in the back of their heads that maybe Sherer is really that guy, and not Phillips, will they be too quick to give Phillips the hook? We can't have that.
Now, I've been a Sherer proponent, but the chorus is pretty loud that he hasn't made the strides the Badgers need him to. Assuming that's the case (and the coaches and folks attending practice know better than me), then it's time for someone else.The coaches are at the practices and want to win even more than I do. I trust they will make the right decision on the quarterback. But that doesn't mean I'm not nervous about it. I think it's next Wednesday that the starter is announced.
Whomever we go with, it's got to be concrete. Period. Can you give a guy the hook if he's awful (see Evridge vs. Penn State)? Yes, but if they have any doubts about their decision it will end badly.
Pick someone and stick with him.
2009 Badger Football Post-Spring Preview
We’ve got them where we want them: thinking we’ll be average.
I'm not saying we'll have a great team, but I think we'll have a pretty darned solid record and a nice bowl game to show for it.
Let’s just get it out of the way: starting quarterback Dustin Sherer (sr.). No, he’s not Brooks Bollinger, but it is what it is. Here’s the upside: he was good enough to beat Michigan State (even though we didn’t), Illinois, Indiana, Minnesota and Cal Poly (though our defense did what they could to surrender that one, too). Iowa wasn’t his fault (and it was his first collegiate start). He’s going to be even better this year. Great? No, but solid. That’s what we need, not some red-shirt freshman with a wobbly arm. And especially not with the other weapons on our offense.
If Sherer is decent, this offense could be spectacular. Clay (so.) and Brown (jr.) are a solid 1-2 combo. Clay will get more carries, but probably not that many more (I’m guessing 60/40) -- Brown is the better all-around back because of his blocking and hands in the passing game). Playing in a two-tight end set, with potential All-American Graham (sr.) and Kendricks (jr.), or Turner (jr.) (playing a hybrid fullback role from the TE spot), we’re going to see versatility Chryst hasn’t had to work with in a couple of years. Add to that Isaac Anderson (jr.) and Nick Toon (so.) starting at receiver, with David Gilreath (jr.) and Kyle Jefferson (jr.) adding depth and a solid 3-WR set. That’s a pretty stacked set of skill players by Badger standards.
With the departure of three starters and everything on offense relying on them, it’s reasonable to question how good the line will be? Pretty good. Carimi (jr.) is the leader, at left tackle, with a very capable and athletic Moffitt (jr.) at center. At right tackle Josh Oglesby (so.) needs to get and stay mean, but brings a load to move the right side of the line. Converted tackle Bscherer (jr.) and game-tested Nagy (jr.) will do well at the guard spots. Oglesby, Bsherer, and Nagy are all “new” starters, but all have significant playing experience as back-ups and starting several games in place of injured guys ahead of them. This line may not be all world, but it will be solid. The biggest area of concern is depth at guard. The Badgers just don’t have a stable of guards. One of the lesser problems to have, but one that an injury or two could really exacerbate.
In short, look for a capable and balanced Badger offense. Sherer won’t be asked to sling the ball all over the place, but he will throw more than the Badgers did last season, and with the skill the Badgers have around him, the Cardinal and White should be prolific.
That’s the good news.
With all the talk about who the starting quarterback should be, the defensive front seven hasn’t gotten the attention critics should give it. One starter returns to his position from last season. One.
Who knows what the defense will look like this season? Maybe a change of blood will mean the end of late-game struggles? (See, e.g., Florida State ‘09, Minnesota ’08, MSU ’08, OSU ’08, Michigan ’08, Fresno State ’08, Minnesota ’07, Michigan ’07, OSU ’07, and MSU ’07.) That’s the hope. In the mean time, who’s doing what for the new front 7? Schofield (sr.) is the [only] returning starter (DE) and got better and better as last year wore on. While no star, he’s good enough. At the other end, Watt (so.) turned heads throughout his mandatory (transfer) red-shirt year and continued doing so throughout the spring. There’s reason to be excited about him. Backing them up are two guys who show lots of promise in the passing game, but are pretty light to defend the run, Nzegwu (so., 245 lbs.), and Kelly (fr., 240 lbs.). The middle is a source of real concern. Dan Moore (sr.) is a solid player, but is a more natural end converted to tackle. Stehle (sr.) has yet to establish himself as a real presence inside, even with playing time last year. Backing them up are Butrym (so.) who has potential, but is young and not big (280 lbs.), and Cascone (sr.). In passing downs we may see Watt move inside with Nzegwu or Kelly taking his spot on the end.
Moving to the linebackers, talk about a lack of depth. McFadden (sr.) is a returning starter, but moves back outside (his more natural position). Culmer St. Jean (jr.) finally takes the middle position he’s been groomed for over the last two years. And Sorensen (jr.) is the other outside linebacker. McFadden and St. Jean should be fine, maybe even pretty good. Sorensen hasn’t shown up much, despite plenty of playing time and experience. And the two-deep? Freshman and sophomores with no real experience. All the guys on the list have gotten some favorable comments from their peers and coaches, but favorable comments don’t read offenses, shed blocks, and make tackles.
So, real questions up front for the Badgers. If I were an opponent, I’d game plan running the ball right at us. The good news on defense is the secondary.
Aaron Henry (so.) is back at one corner, and looks like his knee has finally healed up. He will get the opposition’s better receiver. Brinkley (jr.) and Devin Smith (so.) both look decent at the other corner (Brinkley will probably start), with Fenelus (so.) not far behind. At safety, after toying with a left/right idea (which held for the linebackers), the coaching staff is back with a strong/free set. Given the personnel, that makes sense. Valai (jr.) is purely a strong safety and Maragos (sr.) and Carter (sr.) are free-types and pretty good (Carter should press Maragos for the starting spot). Pleasant (sr.) could go either way, but has spent most of his career in Madison at strong safety, and is a pretty good option backing up Valai (or pressing him to start). These guys won’t all be pros (maybe a couple will), but they make up a solid Big Ten secondary.
In the kicking game, Welch (so., PK) and Nortman (so., punter) will continue to be fine. The Badgers need more out of Gilreath in the return game, and need to continue to improve their coverage.
In summary, expect the Badgers to play high scoring games this season. Despite all the talk about the quarterback situation, the offense should be very good, but don’t be surprised to see the defense give up long, sustained drives against teams running the ball up the gut.
And as for a game-by-game prediction?
Northern Illinois: Win
Fresno State: Win (but closer than it should be unless we can focus entirely on stopping the run)
Wofford: Win (augh)
Michigan State: Win (because it’s at home; expect a close fight)
@ Minnesota: Loss (they return almost everybody, we’ve struggled with them for two years, and it’s a huge home game for them in their new place)
@ Ohio State: Loss (close, but Pryor will do what he has to against our defense)
Iowa: Win (screw them!)
Purdue: Win (they just aren’t very good)
@ Indiana: Win (still Indiana football)
Michigan: Win (but close, they will be much improved and their option will hurt our defense)
@ Northwestern: Win (another close one; their defense is better than ours, but our offense will prevail)
@ Hawaii: Win (not the same since their coaching change)
That’s an unreasonably optimistic 10-2, with a terrible out-of-conference schedule, and optimistic picks against Michigan State, Iowa, and Northwestern. With as weak a Big Ten slate as we have this season (no Penn State or Illinois, still rebuidling Michigan, MSU with a new quarterback and running back, Iowa has a new running back, and Northwestern has a new quarterback), 10-2 just isn't that impressive. Worse than 8-4 would be a disaster of a season.
I'm not saying we'll have a great team, but I think we'll have a pretty darned solid record and a nice bowl game to show for it.
Let’s just get it out of the way: starting quarterback Dustin Sherer (sr.). No, he’s not Brooks Bollinger, but it is what it is. Here’s the upside: he was good enough to beat Michigan State (even though we didn’t), Illinois, Indiana, Minnesota and Cal Poly (though our defense did what they could to surrender that one, too). Iowa wasn’t his fault (and it was his first collegiate start). He’s going to be even better this year. Great? No, but solid. That’s what we need, not some red-shirt freshman with a wobbly arm. And especially not with the other weapons on our offense.
If Sherer is decent, this offense could be spectacular. Clay (so.) and Brown (jr.) are a solid 1-2 combo. Clay will get more carries, but probably not that many more (I’m guessing 60/40) -- Brown is the better all-around back because of his blocking and hands in the passing game). Playing in a two-tight end set, with potential All-American Graham (sr.) and Kendricks (jr.), or Turner (jr.) (playing a hybrid fullback role from the TE spot), we’re going to see versatility Chryst hasn’t had to work with in a couple of years. Add to that Isaac Anderson (jr.) and Nick Toon (so.) starting at receiver, with David Gilreath (jr.) and Kyle Jefferson (jr.) adding depth and a solid 3-WR set. That’s a pretty stacked set of skill players by Badger standards.
With the departure of three starters and everything on offense relying on them, it’s reasonable to question how good the line will be? Pretty good. Carimi (jr.) is the leader, at left tackle, with a very capable and athletic Moffitt (jr.) at center. At right tackle Josh Oglesby (so.) needs to get and stay mean, but brings a load to move the right side of the line. Converted tackle Bscherer (jr.) and game-tested Nagy (jr.) will do well at the guard spots. Oglesby, Bsherer, and Nagy are all “new” starters, but all have significant playing experience as back-ups and starting several games in place of injured guys ahead of them. This line may not be all world, but it will be solid. The biggest area of concern is depth at guard. The Badgers just don’t have a stable of guards. One of the lesser problems to have, but one that an injury or two could really exacerbate.
In short, look for a capable and balanced Badger offense. Sherer won’t be asked to sling the ball all over the place, but he will throw more than the Badgers did last season, and with the skill the Badgers have around him, the Cardinal and White should be prolific.
That’s the good news.
With all the talk about who the starting quarterback should be, the defensive front seven hasn’t gotten the attention critics should give it. One starter returns to his position from last season. One.
Who knows what the defense will look like this season? Maybe a change of blood will mean the end of late-game struggles? (See, e.g., Florida State ‘09, Minnesota ’08, MSU ’08, OSU ’08, Michigan ’08, Fresno State ’08, Minnesota ’07, Michigan ’07, OSU ’07, and MSU ’07.) That’s the hope. In the mean time, who’s doing what for the new front 7? Schofield (sr.) is the [only] returning starter (DE) and got better and better as last year wore on. While no star, he’s good enough. At the other end, Watt (so.) turned heads throughout his mandatory (transfer) red-shirt year and continued doing so throughout the spring. There’s reason to be excited about him. Backing them up are two guys who show lots of promise in the passing game, but are pretty light to defend the run, Nzegwu (so., 245 lbs.), and Kelly (fr., 240 lbs.). The middle is a source of real concern. Dan Moore (sr.) is a solid player, but is a more natural end converted to tackle. Stehle (sr.) has yet to establish himself as a real presence inside, even with playing time last year. Backing them up are Butrym (so.) who has potential, but is young and not big (280 lbs.), and Cascone (sr.). In passing downs we may see Watt move inside with Nzegwu or Kelly taking his spot on the end.
Moving to the linebackers, talk about a lack of depth. McFadden (sr.) is a returning starter, but moves back outside (his more natural position). Culmer St. Jean (jr.) finally takes the middle position he’s been groomed for over the last two years. And Sorensen (jr.) is the other outside linebacker. McFadden and St. Jean should be fine, maybe even pretty good. Sorensen hasn’t shown up much, despite plenty of playing time and experience. And the two-deep? Freshman and sophomores with no real experience. All the guys on the list have gotten some favorable comments from their peers and coaches, but favorable comments don’t read offenses, shed blocks, and make tackles.
So, real questions up front for the Badgers. If I were an opponent, I’d game plan running the ball right at us. The good news on defense is the secondary.
Aaron Henry (so.) is back at one corner, and looks like his knee has finally healed up. He will get the opposition’s better receiver. Brinkley (jr.) and Devin Smith (so.) both look decent at the other corner (Brinkley will probably start), with Fenelus (so.) not far behind. At safety, after toying with a left/right idea (which held for the linebackers), the coaching staff is back with a strong/free set. Given the personnel, that makes sense. Valai (jr.) is purely a strong safety and Maragos (sr.) and Carter (sr.) are free-types and pretty good (Carter should press Maragos for the starting spot). Pleasant (sr.) could go either way, but has spent most of his career in Madison at strong safety, and is a pretty good option backing up Valai (or pressing him to start). These guys won’t all be pros (maybe a couple will), but they make up a solid Big Ten secondary.
In the kicking game, Welch (so., PK) and Nortman (so., punter) will continue to be fine. The Badgers need more out of Gilreath in the return game, and need to continue to improve their coverage.
In summary, expect the Badgers to play high scoring games this season. Despite all the talk about the quarterback situation, the offense should be very good, but don’t be surprised to see the defense give up long, sustained drives against teams running the ball up the gut.
And as for a game-by-game prediction?
Northern Illinois: Win
Fresno State: Win (but closer than it should be unless we can focus entirely on stopping the run)
Wofford: Win (augh)
Michigan State: Win (because it’s at home; expect a close fight)
@ Minnesota: Loss (they return almost everybody, we’ve struggled with them for two years, and it’s a huge home game for them in their new place)
@ Ohio State: Loss (close, but Pryor will do what he has to against our defense)
Iowa: Win (screw them!)
Purdue: Win (they just aren’t very good)
@ Indiana: Win (still Indiana football)
Michigan: Win (but close, they will be much improved and their option will hurt our defense)
@ Northwestern: Win (another close one; their defense is better than ours, but our offense will prevail)
@ Hawaii: Win (not the same since their coaching change)
That’s an unreasonably optimistic 10-2, with a terrible out-of-conference schedule, and optimistic picks against Michigan State, Iowa, and Northwestern. With as weak a Big Ten slate as we have this season (no Penn State or Illinois, still rebuidling Michigan, MSU with a new quarterback and running back, Iowa has a new running back, and Northwestern has a new quarterback), 10-2 just isn't that impressive. Worse than 8-4 would be a disaster of a season.
Starting Offense?
It seems like every day we're hearing about how good JJ Watt and Nick Toon look. Sometimes Spring sensations don't turn into Fall gold, but I'm optimistic -- it's that time of year. Ok, so take the quarterback off the table for a minute (as before I'm in the Sherer camp, based purely on what we hear) and just look at the starting 10 for the 2009 offense.
No offense to Jones, Spitz, and Ewing, but based on the talent we have, I think you're looking at fewer downs with a fullback in the backfield. I think the sets we'll see the most from Chryst will be two tight ends, two wide receivers, or three wide receivers, 1 tight end, only one tailback. See 2005 (3/1 sets) and 2006 (no healthy fullbacks, lots of 2/2 sets). I'm also thinking that we'll see a Moss/Fletcher circa '93 type split of backfield duties. Brown is the better all-around back, but Clay just brings too much to the table for him not to get the majority of the carries. It's not going to be a feature back system, though. I think we'll see about a 60/40 Clay to Brown split in snaps.
From what we're hearing Toon must be locking down a starting spot on the outside. Maybe the bigger question is who is the #1 receiver, Anderson or Gilreath. I'm sticking with Anderson, and keeping Gilreath as #3, which means lots of playing time. You have to like the flexibility you get with Graham and Kendricks (or Turner) in there. Two tight ends with traditional size and blocking ability, plus Toon's size for downfield blocking. Clay and Brown should love the opportunities they get on the ground. And with Brown in there, you're looking at a formation (the 2/2) that could run a power dive, or send 5 solid receivers into pass patterns. That can happen with both tight ends in, or Chryst can send Kendricks wide, as he has before, effectively giving the Badgers a 3/1 set with 2/2 personnel. Chryst obviously knows way more about all of this than I ever will, but I'm salivating at the possibilities.
No offense to Jones, Spitz, and Ewing, but based on the talent we have, I think you're looking at fewer downs with a fullback in the backfield. I think the sets we'll see the most from Chryst will be two tight ends, two wide receivers, or three wide receivers, 1 tight end, only one tailback. See 2005 (3/1 sets) and 2006 (no healthy fullbacks, lots of 2/2 sets). I'm also thinking that we'll see a Moss/Fletcher circa '93 type split of backfield duties. Brown is the better all-around back, but Clay just brings too much to the table for him not to get the majority of the carries. It's not going to be a feature back system, though. I think we'll see about a 60/40 Clay to Brown split in snaps.
From what we're hearing Toon must be locking down a starting spot on the outside. Maybe the bigger question is who is the #1 receiver, Anderson or Gilreath. I'm sticking with Anderson, and keeping Gilreath as #3, which means lots of playing time. You have to like the flexibility you get with Graham and Kendricks (or Turner) in there. Two tight ends with traditional size and blocking ability, plus Toon's size for downfield blocking. Clay and Brown should love the opportunities they get on the ground. And with Brown in there, you're looking at a formation (the 2/2) that could run a power dive, or send 5 solid receivers into pass patterns. That can happen with both tight ends in, or Chryst can send Kendricks wide, as he has before, effectively giving the Badgers a 3/1 set with 2/2 personnel. Chryst obviously knows way more about all of this than I ever will, but I'm salivating at the possibilities.
P.S. Konz practicing with the 1st team looks more and more like a ploy to get Oglesby practicing harder. Oglesby is your starting right tackle.
And then there's the quarterback issue. So anyway, here's how I see the starting lineup, depending on whether we're 3/1 or 2/2 WRs to TEs:
Flexibility and the Pro Style Offense
I have said before that Wisconsin's offense (under Chryst) resembles Notre Dame's offense (under Weis), but with key personnel differences. Whereas Notre Dame has top-end quarterback talent, the Badgers have relied on a punishing rushing attack. Or at least so goes the theory. The Blue-Gray Sky, an excellent Notre Dame football blog, just published an expose of at least one of the problems with the Notre Dame offense, here.
You'll note their discussion of the packages Notre Dame runs; they look a lot like the ones we run. The three biggest under Weis have been: (1) 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 RB; (2) 2 WR, 2 TE, 1 RB; and (3) 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 RB, 1 FB. Same as us. Now this is no great revelation; those are your traditional pro sets.
The big problem BGS identifies with Notre Dame's offensive production is predictability. Sound familiar? In their case, losing the ability to field two-tight end sets made them much more predictable. Especially because no one respected their run game. That should sound familiar, too, if an inverse of our problem last year. Injuries limited our ability to field the two-tight end set, no one respected our passing game. As a result we were very predictable. The key isn’t necessarily the two-tight end set; it’s flexibility, but the two-tight end set helps create flexibility.
Oddly, 2005 may have been the panacea for both teams' offenses. The Irish had Quinn going to Stovall and Samardzija, along with Fasano at tight end and Darius Walker as the running back. All of those guys are pro athletes now (Samardzija is a Cub, but the rest are in the League, as are several of their lineman). It was a good year for the Badgers, too, with Stocco, Williams and Orr, Daniels, and Calhoun. A step down in talent at QB and WR, but pretty solid players. And what did both offenses have? Flexibility. Quality receiving threats, including at TE, quality running backs, and quality quarterbacks running the show. Just like Notre Dame, in 2005 we were versatile. Stocco threw the ball 46% of the time on first down.[i] When Stocco was dealing with 9 new starters on the offense, in 2006,[ii] he was down to passing only 40% of the time on first down.
There's another piece, hinted at above: other than the quarterback, who's on the field? From '05 to '06, Stocco lost all of his "skill position" players. Not surprisingly, even with a quality quarterback, Chryst got a little more conservative, and went to the running game a little more often, and in the passing game, it was all tight ends, all the time. Well, almost. Of the 53 passing plays I could identify the receiver, 51% were to tight ends (Beckum and Crooks), 47% to WRs (Hubbard and Swan; only 3 to backs). Contrast that with '05, when Stocco went to his receivers 57% of the time, and his other throws were evenly divided between his backs (mostly Calhoun) and his tight ends (mostly Daniels).
Moving on to 2007, Donovan is under center, and the other skill players are the same: Hubbard, Swan, Beckum, Graham (Crooks was injured most of the season) and Hill. On first down?[iii] Passing 41% of the time; about the same as Stocco with the same lineup. And Donovan's targets overall? 49% tight ends, only 41% to the receivers. The remaining 10% went to backs. Not surprising that Chryst would have a first year starter throwing more to check downs than Stocco, a three-year starter.
And then we get to 2008. Not unlike the Irish in 2008, there was only one thing we could do well: run the ball (ND couldn’t do that; they passed the ball well). Our tight ends were dinged up and our down field threat was, let’s say . . . limited. So, on first down Evridge passes only 25% of the time, and Sherer only passed 23% of the time.[iv] That’s awfully one-dimensional.
Where did the 2008 passing plays go? Evridge threw to his tight ends (54%) and his backs (9%), with just 37% of his throws to wide receivers. Sherer, in contrast, found his receivers (53%) and his tight ends 43%, with only two throws to his backs (4%). For both, a tight end was the leading receiver (Beckum, then Graham, respectively; injuries to both playing a role), but Sherer spread the ball around more to his receivers.[v] Regardless of who was catching the ball, the Badgers relied too much on the run. The lack of flexibility translated to predictability.
Which leads us to Spring 2009. Coming back to the offense may be a better set of weapons than we had in 2005. At tailback we have the punishing Clay (more fleet of foot than Hill, by a fair margin), “all-around” Zach Brown, and either Erik Smith or Montee Ball (when he matriculates in the Fall). The wide receivers are likely led by Isaac Anderson, but Nick Toon has been flashing his skills of late, David Gilreath is a big-play threat, and Kyle Jefferson isn’t far behind Toon. With Garrett Graham back along with Mickey Turner and H-backish Lance Kendricks, we’re well stocked at tight end. That’s a lot of skill on the offense by Badger football standards.
That leaves the same gaping question: the quarterback.
And that leads me back to Sherer vs. Phillips and Budmayr. We need someone who can manage a complex offense. As much as Budmayr may be a future star, a true freshman with one Spring camp under his belt, isn’t likely to do it. Not unless we want a repeat of last year’s single dimensional offense. So, Phillips and Sherer.[vi] It doesn’t come down to who throws the better spiral or who has the bigger cannon for an arm. It’s the guy that can best spread it around. He needs to understand the variety in the offense, and he needs to get the ball there.
As Bielema said the other day, Sherer has a clear advantage in understanding the offense. 2009 will be his 5th season with the Chyrst playbook vs. Phillips’s second (and last season Phillips was mostly running the scout team). That means Phillips has to be that much better than Sherer at getting the ball to his receivers.[vii] Can he be? I’d say it’s a tough hill to climb.
At this point, I’d say the odds should be on Sherer, and the fans should be happy about it. He’s already shown that he’s capable of spreading the ball around. If he can lock down a little more throwing consistency, he could be a solid game manager. And that’s all we really need to return flexibility to the Badger offense.
And two-tight end sets.
[i] Evaluating three competitive games in ’05:
[ii] Against
[iii] Against
[iv] When not in the 2-minute drill. Evridge is against
[v] Keeping in mind that these statistics are just from two competitive games, it’s tough to extrapolate too much, but in those games Sherer found Graham 14 times,
This isn’t entirely fair to Evridge. With two healthy tight ends, against
[vi] It’s unfair that I’m not including Tolzien, but I have yet to see a report that indicates he’s a serious contender to start.
[vii] Phillips’ running ability is nice, but we have capable backs and we don’t run a spread option.
Breaking Announcement: New Quarterback, New System
For those people who think that Barry Alvarez still has tight control over "his" football program, today's expected announcement should put that talk to rest.
Everyone has been waiting with baited breath to learn more about the quarterback situation, and the answer has leaked out. Curt Phillips is your new starter. But that's not all. One of the last vestiges of the Big Ten's three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust reputation is going by the wayside. After a hush-hush meeting with the coaching staff, we've learned that Paul Chryst is stepping down as offensive coordinator to pursue other options outside of the program. The new offensive coordinator appears to be Nevada's Chris Klenakis, who Bielema is bringing in to institute his version of the spread option, the Pistol offense that Nevada has used to light up the scoreboard for the last few years.
Although there isn't yet an official announcement, it is expected soon. The spread option, especially one that makes use of running back dives the way the Pistol does, looks like a solid move for the Badgers. Phillips came in a touted "athletic" quarterback who can make plays with his legs. Lining up behind him with Clay turns the Pistol into a Colt .45, as it were. Likewise, the spread may make better use of Gilreath's speed and compensate some for his shorter stature, and with high caliber tight ends, Phillips could have some great options to work with. With less experience than year's past on the offensive line, and a little less weight, this appears to be the perfect opportunity to bring in the new system, taking advantage of Moffitt's athleticism at center, and effectively playing with three tackles (Oglesby, Bscherer, and Carimi).
Presumably message boards the Badger nation round will rejoice at the news: a highly touted quarterback recruit running an exciting new offense? The "Colt .45" -- a spread packing a serious kick (Clay and the Big Uglies) -- could give the Badgers the most potent offense Madison has seen since Ron Vanderkellen roamed the backfield with Pat Richter at "split end."
And yes . . . April Fool's.
Everyone has been waiting with baited breath to learn more about the quarterback situation, and the answer has leaked out. Curt Phillips is your new starter. But that's not all. One of the last vestiges of the Big Ten's three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust reputation is going by the wayside. After a hush-hush meeting with the coaching staff, we've learned that Paul Chryst is stepping down as offensive coordinator to pursue other options outside of the program. The new offensive coordinator appears to be Nevada's Chris Klenakis, who Bielema is bringing in to institute his version of the spread option, the Pistol offense that Nevada has used to light up the scoreboard for the last few years.
Although there isn't yet an official announcement, it is expected soon. The spread option, especially one that makes use of running back dives the way the Pistol does, looks like a solid move for the Badgers. Phillips came in a touted "athletic" quarterback who can make plays with his legs. Lining up behind him with Clay turns the Pistol into a Colt .45, as it were. Likewise, the spread may make better use of Gilreath's speed and compensate some for his shorter stature, and with high caliber tight ends, Phillips could have some great options to work with. With less experience than year's past on the offensive line, and a little less weight, this appears to be the perfect opportunity to bring in the new system, taking advantage of Moffitt's athleticism at center, and effectively playing with three tackles (Oglesby, Bscherer, and Carimi).
Presumably message boards the Badger nation round will rejoice at the news: a highly touted quarterback recruit running an exciting new offense? The "Colt .45" -- a spread packing a serious kick (Clay and the Big Uglies) -- could give the Badgers the most potent offense Madison has seen since Ron Vanderkellen roamed the backfield with Pat Richter at "split end."
And yes . . . April Fool's.
Chryst Knows
Solid comments from Chryst on the quarterback situation yesterday here (about 1 minute in).
QB is the key and it's what he's focused on.
Also, interesting comment at the end about using what you have. Don't be surprised to see a lot of two-tight end sets and more 3 WR, 1 TE sets than we did the last two years.
QB is the key and it's what he's focused on.
Also, interesting comment at the end about using what you have. Don't be surprised to see a lot of two-tight end sets and more 3 WR, 1 TE sets than we did the last two years.
The Case For Phillips
(1) Mr. Tennessee Football.
(2) Better legs than Sherer
(3) Let's not kid ourselves, Sherer was the guy who couldn't beat out Evridge in the fall last year.
(4) Time
Sure, he'd have some growing pains, but isn't the time for annually having a new quarterback under center over? Maybe he'd be a little rough around the edges, but he's got a solid supporting cast. Moreover, look at their eligibility. Anderson, Gilreath, Toon, Kendricks, Clay . . . all have at least two years left. The offense will only lose two players after the 2009 season to eligibility: Bscherer (who may not even start over Oglesby), and Graham (who is a big loss anyway you cut it). Wouldn't it be nice to have some continuity for the rest of the offense. Can you imagine the potential for that offense in 2010?
And again, it's not as though Sherer was lighting things up last season. Potrykus says you've gotta play for today, not for next year, but this quarterback derby has to end. It's been terrible for the Chryst offense.
The backup is always the fan favorite. To be honest, the case isn't overwhelming for Phillips. However . . .
At the end of the day, if Sherer isn't comfortably ahead of Phillips at the end of the Spring, shouldn't Phillips enter the Fall number one?
PS: ESPN blogger's *probing* interview with Bielema here (I thought BB didn't like bloggers?).
(2) Better legs than Sherer
(3) Let's not kid ourselves, Sherer was the guy who couldn't beat out Evridge in the fall last year.
(4) Time
Sure, he'd have some growing pains, but isn't the time for annually having a new quarterback under center over? Maybe he'd be a little rough around the edges, but he's got a solid supporting cast. Moreover, look at their eligibility. Anderson, Gilreath, Toon, Kendricks, Clay . . . all have at least two years left. The offense will only lose two players after the 2009 season to eligibility: Bscherer (who may not even start over Oglesby), and Graham (who is a big loss anyway you cut it). Wouldn't it be nice to have some continuity for the rest of the offense. Can you imagine the potential for that offense in 2010?
And again, it's not as though Sherer was lighting things up last season. Potrykus says you've gotta play for today, not for next year, but this quarterback derby has to end. It's been terrible for the Chryst offense.
The backup is always the fan favorite. To be honest, the case isn't overwhelming for Phillips. However . . .
At the end of the day, if Sherer isn't comfortably ahead of Phillips at the end of the Spring, shouldn't Phillips enter the Fall number one?
PS: ESPN blogger's *probing* interview with Bielema here (I thought BB didn't like bloggers?).
Why Sherer Should Start
Budmayr? Folks he didn't even play last season as a senior in high school, and some are talking about him starting as a true freshman? Uh, no.
So, Phillips or Sherer. The fan money is on Phillips, right? Phillips was Mr. Tennessee. You know: talent, SEC speed, the whole deal. Sherer will be a 5th year senior who won the starting job last season after Evridge cratered in the first 2-1/2 Big Ten games. Remember the Champs Sports Bowl? Pretty ugly, right? I'm not so sure.
First, do we really want a redshirt freshman starting with the team we're going to send out. We have one of the better (and complimentary) running tandem's the Badgers have had, we have outstanding tight ends, and more experience at wide receiver than we've had in three years, and our line is in pretty decent shape, despite the new starters in three spots. Wouldn't solid quarterback play go a long way to making this a highly efficient offense?
So Sherer wasn't exactly an all-American last year, but he was also thrown in mid-season, having spent the better part of the fall taking limited snaps in practice. He made some great plays against Illinois, Michigan State, and Minnesota. Even against Florida State he made some fantastic throws (in the first half he hit Graham for an amazing 3rd down play inside our own 10). He appears to have a better arm than either Evridge or Donovan. In addition, more so than any quarterback since Stocco in his junior year, Sherer found open wide receivers. He spread the ball around better than Donovan, and better even than Stocco in his senior year. The '09 offense is built to keep the bad guys off balance by spreading the ball around.
Did he make some mistakes? Sure, but is that a big surprise for a guy who's just now starting? Did he learn some lessons? You bet he did. Lessons Phillips would have to learn this season. In addition, he's been in the Chryst system for five years, and he's taken a lot of meaningful snaps and reps. Phillips spent last season on the practice squad, so he's not nearly as well immersed in how the Chryst offense works.
Do we really want a redshirt freshman starting? Wouldn't it be nice to get Phillips a full year as the back-up quarterback so that his sophomore year (by eligibility) he can step in with three full years ahead of him, and a full year behind him practicing in Chryst's system?
That's the argument for Sherer. Don't be surprised if he comes out of camp at the number 1 spot on the depth chart. It might well be for the best.
So, Phillips or Sherer. The fan money is on Phillips, right? Phillips was Mr. Tennessee. You know: talent, SEC speed, the whole deal. Sherer will be a 5th year senior who won the starting job last season after Evridge cratered in the first 2-1/2 Big Ten games. Remember the Champs Sports Bowl? Pretty ugly, right? I'm not so sure.
First, do we really want a redshirt freshman starting with the team we're going to send out. We have one of the better (and complimentary) running tandem's the Badgers have had, we have outstanding tight ends, and more experience at wide receiver than we've had in three years, and our line is in pretty decent shape, despite the new starters in three spots. Wouldn't solid quarterback play go a long way to making this a highly efficient offense?
So Sherer wasn't exactly an all-American last year, but he was also thrown in mid-season, having spent the better part of the fall taking limited snaps in practice. He made some great plays against Illinois, Michigan State, and Minnesota. Even against Florida State he made some fantastic throws (in the first half he hit Graham for an amazing 3rd down play inside our own 10). He appears to have a better arm than either Evridge or Donovan. In addition, more so than any quarterback since Stocco in his junior year, Sherer found open wide receivers. He spread the ball around better than Donovan, and better even than Stocco in his senior year. The '09 offense is built to keep the bad guys off balance by spreading the ball around.
Did he make some mistakes? Sure, but is that a big surprise for a guy who's just now starting? Did he learn some lessons? You bet he did. Lessons Phillips would have to learn this season. In addition, he's been in the Chryst system for five years, and he's taken a lot of meaningful snaps and reps. Phillips spent last season on the practice squad, so he's not nearly as well immersed in how the Chryst offense works.
Do we really want a redshirt freshman starting? Wouldn't it be nice to get Phillips a full year as the back-up quarterback so that his sophomore year (by eligibility) he can step in with three full years ahead of him, and a full year behind him practicing in Chryst's system?
That's the argument for Sherer. Don't be surprised if he comes out of camp at the number 1 spot on the depth chart. It might well be for the best.
Spring Preview: Tight Ends
This just in: we're stacked at tight end. Graham is a possible All-American, Kendricks has Beckum-like potential (came in as a highly-recruited wide receiver), and Turner would start at tight end for most schools.
The question here isn't quality. Rather it's can the Badgers avoid the slew of injuries that hit the tight end corps last season? If they do, look out. Chryst will come at the opposition with all kinds of clever uses for his tight ends. This year shapes up to be another step towards making UW the new Tight End U.
The question here isn't quality. Rather it's can the Badgers avoid the slew of injuries that hit the tight end corps last season? If they do, look out. Chryst will come at the opposition with all kinds of clever uses for his tight ends. This year shapes up to be another step towards making UW the new Tight End U.
Spring Previews
As we're about two weeks from Spring practice starting, UW has begun releasing pre-Spring position previews. So far they've put up the offensive line, defensive line, and running backs.
Of note, reshirt freshman Peter Konz has been switched from defense to offensive guard for this year. Line coach Bostad says Konz, Zeitler, and Current will compete for the left guard spot. Interesting battle shaping up for right tackle between Bscherer and Oglesby who have both seen significant time on the field at tackle. Current looks to be the backup center, but that hasn't prevented players from starting at guard before. Guard depth still looks like an issue. In sum, Carimi says (in the video UW offers) "We're mean." A lot meaner than years past, or so he says. That should be interesting . . .
For the defensive line, no big surprises. One change is it looks like Dan Moore will move from end to tackle. Transfer J.J. Watt, after sitting out last season, is getting a lot of attention for serious playing time this fall. In no particular order, Schofield, Kelly, Nzegwu and Mains are the likely two-deep at end, with Moore, Watt, Stehle, and Butrym likely the same for the tackle spots.
No surprises at running back, either. Clay, Brown, then the young guys. Concerns about depth, however, appear overstated. Fullback? It looks like this blind squirrel found a nut when predicting that Dex Jones might just be our next starting fullback. A little surprise is that Brady Ewing might be in the mix at fullback rather than halfback, as will walk-on Sam Spitz. Reading Coach Settle's comments, maybe the offense plans to use the fullback a little more to catch the ball out of the backfield? (In 2008, the Badgers completed one pass to a fullback.)
Although the Badgers haven't posted a quarterback preview yet, ESPN ran a little piece on Chryst's latest quarterback derby -- as basically everyone knows -- the biggest question heading into the Spring. Other than the puzzling statement that Budmayr was the Badgers' biggest quarterback recruit in years (1 year after the higher-rated, Mr. Tennessee Football, Phillips?),* the article seems pretty spot on.
You can find all of UW's Spring rundowns here.
Not to be overlooked, as Scott Tappa noted (as well as the media outlets), Elijah Hodge, Xavier Harris, and James Stallons won't return with the Badgers. Hodge will graduate in May and will forego his 5th year of eligibility in Madison. Harris's back has never sufficiently recovered from injury. His playing days are over, but he's on track to graduate (still on scholarship) next year. Stallons? With Phillips and Budmayr on the younger end of things and Tolzein and Sherer on the older, maybe he just didn't figure to get much playing time. Or maybe it was something else . . . ?
Harris and Hodge will both be missed for the depth they provided. Good for them for taking their education seriously. Both are pretty high profile examples of the injury bug ending bright prospects in football.
* Don't get me wrong, I'm excited about Budmayr's potential, too.
Of note, reshirt freshman Peter Konz has been switched from defense to offensive guard for this year. Line coach Bostad says Konz, Zeitler, and Current will compete for the left guard spot. Interesting battle shaping up for right tackle between Bscherer and Oglesby who have both seen significant time on the field at tackle. Current looks to be the backup center, but that hasn't prevented players from starting at guard before. Guard depth still looks like an issue. In sum, Carimi says (in the video UW offers) "We're mean." A lot meaner than years past, or so he says. That should be interesting . . .
For the defensive line, no big surprises. One change is it looks like Dan Moore will move from end to tackle. Transfer J.J. Watt, after sitting out last season, is getting a lot of attention for serious playing time this fall. In no particular order, Schofield, Kelly, Nzegwu and Mains are the likely two-deep at end, with Moore, Watt, Stehle, and Butrym likely the same for the tackle spots.
No surprises at running back, either. Clay, Brown, then the young guys. Concerns about depth, however, appear overstated. Fullback? It looks like this blind squirrel found a nut when predicting that Dex Jones might just be our next starting fullback. A little surprise is that Brady Ewing might be in the mix at fullback rather than halfback, as will walk-on Sam Spitz. Reading Coach Settle's comments, maybe the offense plans to use the fullback a little more to catch the ball out of the backfield? (In 2008, the Badgers completed one pass to a fullback.)
Although the Badgers haven't posted a quarterback preview yet, ESPN ran a little piece on Chryst's latest quarterback derby -- as basically everyone knows -- the biggest question heading into the Spring. Other than the puzzling statement that Budmayr was the Badgers' biggest quarterback recruit in years (1 year after the higher-rated, Mr. Tennessee Football, Phillips?),* the article seems pretty spot on.
You can find all of UW's Spring rundowns here.
Not to be overlooked, as Scott Tappa noted (as well as the media outlets), Elijah Hodge, Xavier Harris, and James Stallons won't return with the Badgers. Hodge will graduate in May and will forego his 5th year of eligibility in Madison. Harris's back has never sufficiently recovered from injury. His playing days are over, but he's on track to graduate (still on scholarship) next year. Stallons? With Phillips and Budmayr on the younger end of things and Tolzein and Sherer on the older, maybe he just didn't figure to get much playing time. Or maybe it was something else . . . ?
Harris and Hodge will both be missed for the depth they provided. Good for them for taking their education seriously. Both are pretty high profile examples of the injury bug ending bright prospects in football.
* Don't get me wrong, I'm excited about Budmayr's potential, too.
The Chryst Manifesto
Having proven my own limitations as a blogger, what follows is the Chyrst Manifesto, a study of the Badger offense, 2005 to present . . . as a series of jpegs. You should be able to click on each to enlarge and read or print it . . . (ps typos and editing mistakes are included for free!)
Power Running? Studying the Myth
I keep hearing about how the Badgers are a power running team. I'm working on an effort to determine if that's true. Based on the games I've looked at, the Badgers ran nearly 80% of the time on first down in 2008. Sounds like power running.
What I've looked at from 2005 through 2007, the Chryst directed offense ran less than 60% of the time on 1st and ten.
Folks, the quarterback matters.
Much more to come.
What I've looked at from 2005 through 2007, the Chryst directed offense ran less than 60% of the time on 1st and ten.
Folks, the quarterback matters.
Much more to come.
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