Liked what I saw and I'm excited to see this season unfold.
More from me, including the criticisms (there are several), here.
Showing posts with label defense. Show all posts
Showing posts with label defense. Show all posts
Badger Blogger Roundtable: 2009 Defense
After discussing the offense, we Badger bloggers turned to the near blank slate that is our defense. What to make of all the new faces? Adam Hoge of Bucky's 5th Quarter led the charge, with Scott Tappa of BadgerCentric, Phil Mitten of Hoops Marinara, and me contributing our views as well:
Can you believe it has been five years since that great defensive line of 2004? Depth is once again an issue this year, but there seems to be some promise in J.J. Watt among others. Do you see any newcomers stepping up on the D-line to provide some depth?
On Wisconsin: Yeah, 5 years since Anttaj and Erasmus, but harder to believe for me is that Chapman and Shaughnessy never became true beasts on the line. They had so much promise early. Schofield is solid (led the team in sacks last season) and everyone is excited about Watt, but it's all based on practice so far. I want to believe in him, but I'm a little nervous. I'm concerned about our size everywhere and Moore really should be an end (where he would probably be very good), but we should have speed on the edges. I don't know who the solid tackles-to-be are, but with Nzegwu, Mains, and Westphal, there is plenty of young talent ready to step up on the ends. We'll need it.
Badger Centric: It's funny, because when you mentioned 2004, the first thing I thought was "I thought 2005 would be a down year, and we ended up winning 10 games, great year." But that was in spite of the defensive line! Even so, while injuries killed that unit (remember Beckum playing end?), but guys like Shaughnessy, Hayden, and Chapman showed promise. I don't see those guys on this unit. O'Brien is a solid starter. Watt seems to have a Hayden-like ceiling. But are there difference-makers? Doesn't look like it. I'll be happy if these guys can keep offensive linemen off our linebackers.
Hoops Marinara: It's a shame Erasmus and Co. flamed out in the NFL. Maybe they weren't that great after all. In 2009, the Badgers look weak up the middle and that spells trouble. I like O'Brien Schofield, who seems like he should be the emotional leader on the unit. Again, I like the younger guys UW has backing up the end positions, but inside is a question mark.
Bucky’s 5th Quarter: You have to be careful from what comes out of Camp Randall in the off-season because a lot of it can be propaganda. But I must say I am a little more optimistic about the defensive line than I was in the spring. After talking with O’Brien Schofield, I must say he seems like a solid leader and he’s determined to have a good year. If J.J. Watt blossoms like he is supposed to, I think Brendan Kelly and Louis Nzegwu do enough to make this a solid line.
Speaking of a lack of depth, the linebacking corp. seems to be scrambling to replace Jonathan Casillas and DeAndre Levy. Blake Sorensen didn't have a great spring, but he is still listed ahead of Mike Taylor on the depth chart. Are you worried about the linebackers?
Badger Centric: Yes, very. Don't want to join the chorus questioning Sorenson, but I've never seen it with him. Saw Taylor play in high school and he was a stud, but we certainly can't count on him to be a standout this year. McFadden and St. Jean are average at best. And there is no one else. What about playing Pleasant at linebacker? We see so much spread it might make sense to have a guy like that in the front seven.
Hoops Marinara: Sorensen certainly has a lot of expectations to fulfill, but I think along with Culmer St. Jean and J. McFadden they can form a decent group. No one will accuse them of being as athletic as last year's group -- Casillas and Levy were two of the best athletes at that position that Wisconsin has seen. But what the Badgers really need is simply a group that knows how to tackle well. I don't want every draw play that gets past the line going for 6 ... can we get another Donnel Thompson in this bunch, please?!
Bucky’s 5th Quarter: I’m excited about McFadden in the middle, but very worried about the other two spots. Culmer St. Jean has never really put it all together and Sorensen didn’t exactly take advantage of his opportunities in the spring. It should be interesting to see what Mike Taylor can do. If he has a good camp, this will be the most fun defensive position battle over the next month.
On Wisconsin: I think the linebackers are the scariest group. First, Sorenson looked S-L-O-W in the spring. I'm pulling for Taylor if only because Sorenson either isn't fast enough or didn't care enough to try harder. I think St. Jean played pretty well when he had his chances last season, so we have two solid starters, but who's backing them up? That's where the loss of Hodge as a solid, contributing second-stringer really hurt. We've heard some positives about Megna, Rouse, and Hubbard, but we haven't seen it yet. Bottom line: I'm worried. Really worried.
Is it safe to say (and a little scary to say) that the secondary is the strength of the Badger defense? It seems like every guy listed on two-deep has shown flashes of brilliance at some point in the last few seasons, but they also have had their hardships. And will Aaron Henry really be as good as he looked like he would be before the knee injury?
Hoops Marinara: There's no question that the secondary looks good by comparison. But I think they actually will be good. Henry should be ready to go -- he's one of the elite talents on the team. I'm really excited to see him grow up. The entire makeup of the secondary is intriguing. You have knock-out artist in Valai, an overachiever in Maragos, plus a lot of experience backing those safeties up (Carter and Pleasant). Niles Brinkley is probably the weak link.
Badger Centric: It is scary, and I'd even question the "flashes of brilliance" assertion. We've seen flashes of competence from these guys, and I'd settled for sustained competence. But every one of the starters has question marks: Henry with the knee, Maragos still learning the position, Valai and his pure hitter MO, and Brinkley giving up big plays. But I'm actually optimistic about these guys and the young guys too. Shane Carter is a wild card, if he could come in and force some turnovers that would be huge.
Bucky’s 5th Quarter: Remember when Shane Carter led the Big Ten in interceptions two years ago? And Niles Brinkley picked off four passes last season? Why don’t I remember all of this? Oh, because when they weren’t grabbing turnovers they were getting beat for touchdowns and committing crucial penalties. Every member of the starting secondary has a good amount of experience, but how much talent do they have? We’ll find out soon.
On Wisconsin: I think they are a strength, but that's relative to the near total unknown of the front 7. Especially at safety, I worry about making that critical tackle. As much as Valai can lay the wood (needs to watch the head-to-head stuff, though), he missed his fair share of tackles last season. That's been Carter's problem all along, which is why Maragos will probably start at free safety. At corner Henry will be fine. I'm glad they decided to keep him out all of last season to truly let him heal. Niles Brinkley played fine last season, and I'm hoping Fenelus and Smith are coming along as well as advertised. But hope is not a method.
What are your thoughts on the defensive coaching staff? Toughness seemed to be an issue at times last season. How will this unit overcome the mental and physical shortcomings that were apparent in 2008?
Bucky’s 5th Quarter: The good news is that fixing these problems was item No. 1 in the off-season. Improving the defense’s mental and physical toughness – and committing fewer mistakes – will give this team an extra win or two this season. And if the problems continue then it will be a major problem for the defensive coaching staff.
On Wisconsin: Bottom line is the heat should be squarely on Doeren. After what Hankwitz did to turn around the Northwestern defense, Bielema's choice to go with Dave over Mike hasn't looked so hot. Maybe it was just breaking everything in the first year with guys who were more used to Hankwitz's way of doing things? That's no excuse this year. On top of making tackles, the defense needs to improve its conditioning. The losses to Michigan, Ohio State, and Michigan State all lay at the defense's tired feet (Bielema's too, of course). The idea that a Barry Alvarez legacy team (as long as he's the AD, he's a part of it) could be 9th in scoring defense in the Big Ten is unfathomable. That can't happen again.
Badger Centric: I don't know about toughness, it's hard to get to be a guy who plays a lot on a Big Ten defense and not be at least somewhat tough. Remember, there were a lot of injuries on that side of the ball last year: Casillas, Levy, Chapman, Henry, and that hurt productivity. What sticks with me are comments made on my blog after the Iowa game. I forget who said it, but the point was made that our defense had finally adapted to deal with the Spread, but when we go against a power line and back like Iowa had, we get run over. That probably won't always happen, but there's a lot of truth there. So by making the seemingly necessary adaptation to deal with the Spread, we have lost our identity as being a stout, stop-the-run defense, and become just another defense with a bunch of undersized guys running around in space. If these undersized guys were racking up sacks and interceptions, that would be one thing, but the unit seems mediocre at best, and it's not like next year looks any more promising. Some of that's on X's and O's coaching, but it's also recruiting and player development.
Hoops Marinara: It starts at the top with BB. I can't stress enough how much I want the coach to relinquish the Special Teams duties. He needs to set the example being focused and knowing where to be at all times. The good news is if the secondary can be everything I want it to be, that makes the job of pressuring the QB a little easier. I think the offense can be better this year too, which should (hopefully) alleviate the problems the defense had being worn out all the time in tight games.
THE Priority
Dustin Sherer this, Curt Philips that, Jon Budmayr, maybe? It's all about the quarterback in Mad-town. Everyone knows that.
Wrong.
THE priority, THE problem with the Badgers is the defense. I just suffered through last year's "highlights." Sure, Evridge wasn't brilliant, and neither was Sherer (though he was a significant upgrade). Yeah, there were penalty problems and fumble problems (big penalty problems and big fumble problems). And with all that, the biggest problem I saw was with the defense. Check the numbers.
In the Big Ten, only Michigan State surrendered more points to Penn State than we did. Not Indiana, not Purdue, not Illinois.
Iowa only scored more than 24 points in conference three times; against Indiana (45), Minnesota (55), and Wisconsin (38). The only other teams they scored on more than us? FIU and Maine.
The 24 points we put up against Michigan State? That put us in good company, with Georgia (24), and only Penn State (49), Ohio State (45), Cal (38), and -- oddly -- Indiana (29) scored more. It was the 25 we gave up that was the problem.
We gave up 32 to Decker-less Minnesota. How many other conference teams let them in the 30s? None. They only got above 20 two other times in conference play.
We blew out Indiana, but not before letting them hang around with us, scoring 20 early. Only Michigan State (29) and Northwestern (21) allowed more in conference.
Three 3+-year starters on the line. Two three-year starters at linebacker. A four-year starter at one corner (to be fair, Langford played his part very well all season), and Shane Carter, at safety, was supposed to be one of the team's best players, and one of two returning starting safeties (neither of whom ended up starting). This was basically the same defense that shut down Arkansas in the Capital One Bowl two years earlier and performed pretty well against Tennessee in the next Outback Bowl.
So what happened? Well, that Northwestern defense looked pretty good this season . . . with the Badgers' '06-'07 DC, Mike Hankwitz on the 'Cats sideline. I haven't given up on Dave Doeren after only one season, but the bottom line is his squad is the one that's most not living up to appropriate expectations. For better or worse he gets a clean slate this season . . .
Wrong.
THE priority, THE problem with the Badgers is the defense. I just suffered through last year's "highlights." Sure, Evridge wasn't brilliant, and neither was Sherer (though he was a significant upgrade). Yeah, there were penalty problems and fumble problems (big penalty problems and big fumble problems). And with all that, the biggest problem I saw was with the defense. Check the numbers.
In the Big Ten, only Michigan State surrendered more points to Penn State than we did. Not Indiana, not Purdue, not Illinois.
Iowa only scored more than 24 points in conference three times; against Indiana (45), Minnesota (55), and Wisconsin (38). The only other teams they scored on more than us? FIU and Maine.
The 24 points we put up against Michigan State? That put us in good company, with Georgia (24), and only Penn State (49), Ohio State (45), Cal (38), and -- oddly -- Indiana (29) scored more. It was the 25 we gave up that was the problem.
We gave up 32 to Decker-less Minnesota. How many other conference teams let them in the 30s? None. They only got above 20 two other times in conference play.
We blew out Indiana, but not before letting them hang around with us, scoring 20 early. Only Michigan State (29) and Northwestern (21) allowed more in conference.
The 27 we allowed to Michigan? Including out-of-conference games (Utah, Miami-Ohio, Notre Dame, and Toledo), they only scored more against Purdue (42) and Minnesota (29; Michigan's only other conference win).
Oh, and Florida State's 42? They only scored more against Chattanooga (46) and Western Carolina (69).The bottom line is in-conference while we were 5th in scoring, we were 9th in points allowed. When your conference is called the Big Ten, coming in 9th isn't so hot.
Now, let's recall how we started the year on defense:Three 3+-year starters on the line. Two three-year starters at linebacker. A four-year starter at one corner (to be fair, Langford played his part very well all season), and Shane Carter, at safety, was supposed to be one of the team's best players, and one of two returning starting safeties (neither of whom ended up starting). This was basically the same defense that shut down Arkansas in the Capital One Bowl two years earlier and performed pretty well against Tennessee in the next Outback Bowl.
So what happened? Well, that Northwestern defense looked pretty good this season . . . with the Badgers' '06-'07 DC, Mike Hankwitz on the 'Cats sideline. I haven't given up on Dave Doeren after only one season, but the bottom line is his squad is the one that's most not living up to appropriate expectations. For better or worse he gets a clean slate this season . . .
Defense wins championships? Indeed.
Come on, Dave . . . we're counting on you . . .
2009 Badger Football Post-Spring Preview
We’ve got them where we want them: thinking we’ll be average.
I'm not saying we'll have a great team, but I think we'll have a pretty darned solid record and a nice bowl game to show for it.
Let’s just get it out of the way: starting quarterback Dustin Sherer (sr.). No, he’s not Brooks Bollinger, but it is what it is. Here’s the upside: he was good enough to beat Michigan State (even though we didn’t), Illinois, Indiana, Minnesota and Cal Poly (though our defense did what they could to surrender that one, too). Iowa wasn’t his fault (and it was his first collegiate start). He’s going to be even better this year. Great? No, but solid. That’s what we need, not some red-shirt freshman with a wobbly arm. And especially not with the other weapons on our offense.
If Sherer is decent, this offense could be spectacular. Clay (so.) and Brown (jr.) are a solid 1-2 combo. Clay will get more carries, but probably not that many more (I’m guessing 60/40) -- Brown is the better all-around back because of his blocking and hands in the passing game). Playing in a two-tight end set, with potential All-American Graham (sr.) and Kendricks (jr.), or Turner (jr.) (playing a hybrid fullback role from the TE spot), we’re going to see versatility Chryst hasn’t had to work with in a couple of years. Add to that Isaac Anderson (jr.) and Nick Toon (so.) starting at receiver, with David Gilreath (jr.) and Kyle Jefferson (jr.) adding depth and a solid 3-WR set. That’s a pretty stacked set of skill players by Badger standards.
With the departure of three starters and everything on offense relying on them, it’s reasonable to question how good the line will be? Pretty good. Carimi (jr.) is the leader, at left tackle, with a very capable and athletic Moffitt (jr.) at center. At right tackle Josh Oglesby (so.) needs to get and stay mean, but brings a load to move the right side of the line. Converted tackle Bscherer (jr.) and game-tested Nagy (jr.) will do well at the guard spots. Oglesby, Bsherer, and Nagy are all “new” starters, but all have significant playing experience as back-ups and starting several games in place of injured guys ahead of them. This line may not be all world, but it will be solid. The biggest area of concern is depth at guard. The Badgers just don’t have a stable of guards. One of the lesser problems to have, but one that an injury or two could really exacerbate.
In short, look for a capable and balanced Badger offense. Sherer won’t be asked to sling the ball all over the place, but he will throw more than the Badgers did last season, and with the skill the Badgers have around him, the Cardinal and White should be prolific.
That’s the good news.
With all the talk about who the starting quarterback should be, the defensive front seven hasn’t gotten the attention critics should give it. One starter returns to his position from last season. One.
Who knows what the defense will look like this season? Maybe a change of blood will mean the end of late-game struggles? (See, e.g., Florida State ‘09, Minnesota ’08, MSU ’08, OSU ’08, Michigan ’08, Fresno State ’08, Minnesota ’07, Michigan ’07, OSU ’07, and MSU ’07.) That’s the hope. In the mean time, who’s doing what for the new front 7? Schofield (sr.) is the [only] returning starter (DE) and got better and better as last year wore on. While no star, he’s good enough. At the other end, Watt (so.) turned heads throughout his mandatory (transfer) red-shirt year and continued doing so throughout the spring. There’s reason to be excited about him. Backing them up are two guys who show lots of promise in the passing game, but are pretty light to defend the run, Nzegwu (so., 245 lbs.), and Kelly (fr., 240 lbs.). The middle is a source of real concern. Dan Moore (sr.) is a solid player, but is a more natural end converted to tackle. Stehle (sr.) has yet to establish himself as a real presence inside, even with playing time last year. Backing them up are Butrym (so.) who has potential, but is young and not big (280 lbs.), and Cascone (sr.). In passing downs we may see Watt move inside with Nzegwu or Kelly taking his spot on the end.
Moving to the linebackers, talk about a lack of depth. McFadden (sr.) is a returning starter, but moves back outside (his more natural position). Culmer St. Jean (jr.) finally takes the middle position he’s been groomed for over the last two years. And Sorensen (jr.) is the other outside linebacker. McFadden and St. Jean should be fine, maybe even pretty good. Sorensen hasn’t shown up much, despite plenty of playing time and experience. And the two-deep? Freshman and sophomores with no real experience. All the guys on the list have gotten some favorable comments from their peers and coaches, but favorable comments don’t read offenses, shed blocks, and make tackles.
So, real questions up front for the Badgers. If I were an opponent, I’d game plan running the ball right at us. The good news on defense is the secondary.
Aaron Henry (so.) is back at one corner, and looks like his knee has finally healed up. He will get the opposition’s better receiver. Brinkley (jr.) and Devin Smith (so.) both look decent at the other corner (Brinkley will probably start), with Fenelus (so.) not far behind. At safety, after toying with a left/right idea (which held for the linebackers), the coaching staff is back with a strong/free set. Given the personnel, that makes sense. Valai (jr.) is purely a strong safety and Maragos (sr.) and Carter (sr.) are free-types and pretty good (Carter should press Maragos for the starting spot). Pleasant (sr.) could go either way, but has spent most of his career in Madison at strong safety, and is a pretty good option backing up Valai (or pressing him to start). These guys won’t all be pros (maybe a couple will), but they make up a solid Big Ten secondary.
In the kicking game, Welch (so., PK) and Nortman (so., punter) will continue to be fine. The Badgers need more out of Gilreath in the return game, and need to continue to improve their coverage.
In summary, expect the Badgers to play high scoring games this season. Despite all the talk about the quarterback situation, the offense should be very good, but don’t be surprised to see the defense give up long, sustained drives against teams running the ball up the gut.
And as for a game-by-game prediction?
Northern Illinois: Win
Fresno State: Win (but closer than it should be unless we can focus entirely on stopping the run)
Wofford: Win (augh)
Michigan State: Win (because it’s at home; expect a close fight)
@ Minnesota: Loss (they return almost everybody, we’ve struggled with them for two years, and it’s a huge home game for them in their new place)
@ Ohio State: Loss (close, but Pryor will do what he has to against our defense)
Iowa: Win (screw them!)
Purdue: Win (they just aren’t very good)
@ Indiana: Win (still Indiana football)
Michigan: Win (but close, they will be much improved and their option will hurt our defense)
@ Northwestern: Win (another close one; their defense is better than ours, but our offense will prevail)
@ Hawaii: Win (not the same since their coaching change)
That’s an unreasonably optimistic 10-2, with a terrible out-of-conference schedule, and optimistic picks against Michigan State, Iowa, and Northwestern. With as weak a Big Ten slate as we have this season (no Penn State or Illinois, still rebuidling Michigan, MSU with a new quarterback and running back, Iowa has a new running back, and Northwestern has a new quarterback), 10-2 just isn't that impressive. Worse than 8-4 would be a disaster of a season.
I'm not saying we'll have a great team, but I think we'll have a pretty darned solid record and a nice bowl game to show for it.
Let’s just get it out of the way: starting quarterback Dustin Sherer (sr.). No, he’s not Brooks Bollinger, but it is what it is. Here’s the upside: he was good enough to beat Michigan State (even though we didn’t), Illinois, Indiana, Minnesota and Cal Poly (though our defense did what they could to surrender that one, too). Iowa wasn’t his fault (and it was his first collegiate start). He’s going to be even better this year. Great? No, but solid. That’s what we need, not some red-shirt freshman with a wobbly arm. And especially not with the other weapons on our offense.
If Sherer is decent, this offense could be spectacular. Clay (so.) and Brown (jr.) are a solid 1-2 combo. Clay will get more carries, but probably not that many more (I’m guessing 60/40) -- Brown is the better all-around back because of his blocking and hands in the passing game). Playing in a two-tight end set, with potential All-American Graham (sr.) and Kendricks (jr.), or Turner (jr.) (playing a hybrid fullback role from the TE spot), we’re going to see versatility Chryst hasn’t had to work with in a couple of years. Add to that Isaac Anderson (jr.) and Nick Toon (so.) starting at receiver, with David Gilreath (jr.) and Kyle Jefferson (jr.) adding depth and a solid 3-WR set. That’s a pretty stacked set of skill players by Badger standards.
With the departure of three starters and everything on offense relying on them, it’s reasonable to question how good the line will be? Pretty good. Carimi (jr.) is the leader, at left tackle, with a very capable and athletic Moffitt (jr.) at center. At right tackle Josh Oglesby (so.) needs to get and stay mean, but brings a load to move the right side of the line. Converted tackle Bscherer (jr.) and game-tested Nagy (jr.) will do well at the guard spots. Oglesby, Bsherer, and Nagy are all “new” starters, but all have significant playing experience as back-ups and starting several games in place of injured guys ahead of them. This line may not be all world, but it will be solid. The biggest area of concern is depth at guard. The Badgers just don’t have a stable of guards. One of the lesser problems to have, but one that an injury or two could really exacerbate.
In short, look for a capable and balanced Badger offense. Sherer won’t be asked to sling the ball all over the place, but he will throw more than the Badgers did last season, and with the skill the Badgers have around him, the Cardinal and White should be prolific.
That’s the good news.
With all the talk about who the starting quarterback should be, the defensive front seven hasn’t gotten the attention critics should give it. One starter returns to his position from last season. One.
Who knows what the defense will look like this season? Maybe a change of blood will mean the end of late-game struggles? (See, e.g., Florida State ‘09, Minnesota ’08, MSU ’08, OSU ’08, Michigan ’08, Fresno State ’08, Minnesota ’07, Michigan ’07, OSU ’07, and MSU ’07.) That’s the hope. In the mean time, who’s doing what for the new front 7? Schofield (sr.) is the [only] returning starter (DE) and got better and better as last year wore on. While no star, he’s good enough. At the other end, Watt (so.) turned heads throughout his mandatory (transfer) red-shirt year and continued doing so throughout the spring. There’s reason to be excited about him. Backing them up are two guys who show lots of promise in the passing game, but are pretty light to defend the run, Nzegwu (so., 245 lbs.), and Kelly (fr., 240 lbs.). The middle is a source of real concern. Dan Moore (sr.) is a solid player, but is a more natural end converted to tackle. Stehle (sr.) has yet to establish himself as a real presence inside, even with playing time last year. Backing them up are Butrym (so.) who has potential, but is young and not big (280 lbs.), and Cascone (sr.). In passing downs we may see Watt move inside with Nzegwu or Kelly taking his spot on the end.
Moving to the linebackers, talk about a lack of depth. McFadden (sr.) is a returning starter, but moves back outside (his more natural position). Culmer St. Jean (jr.) finally takes the middle position he’s been groomed for over the last two years. And Sorensen (jr.) is the other outside linebacker. McFadden and St. Jean should be fine, maybe even pretty good. Sorensen hasn’t shown up much, despite plenty of playing time and experience. And the two-deep? Freshman and sophomores with no real experience. All the guys on the list have gotten some favorable comments from their peers and coaches, but favorable comments don’t read offenses, shed blocks, and make tackles.
So, real questions up front for the Badgers. If I were an opponent, I’d game plan running the ball right at us. The good news on defense is the secondary.
Aaron Henry (so.) is back at one corner, and looks like his knee has finally healed up. He will get the opposition’s better receiver. Brinkley (jr.) and Devin Smith (so.) both look decent at the other corner (Brinkley will probably start), with Fenelus (so.) not far behind. At safety, after toying with a left/right idea (which held for the linebackers), the coaching staff is back with a strong/free set. Given the personnel, that makes sense. Valai (jr.) is purely a strong safety and Maragos (sr.) and Carter (sr.) are free-types and pretty good (Carter should press Maragos for the starting spot). Pleasant (sr.) could go either way, but has spent most of his career in Madison at strong safety, and is a pretty good option backing up Valai (or pressing him to start). These guys won’t all be pros (maybe a couple will), but they make up a solid Big Ten secondary.
In the kicking game, Welch (so., PK) and Nortman (so., punter) will continue to be fine. The Badgers need more out of Gilreath in the return game, and need to continue to improve their coverage.
In summary, expect the Badgers to play high scoring games this season. Despite all the talk about the quarterback situation, the offense should be very good, but don’t be surprised to see the defense give up long, sustained drives against teams running the ball up the gut.
And as for a game-by-game prediction?
Northern Illinois: Win
Fresno State: Win (but closer than it should be unless we can focus entirely on stopping the run)
Wofford: Win (augh)
Michigan State: Win (because it’s at home; expect a close fight)
@ Minnesota: Loss (they return almost everybody, we’ve struggled with them for two years, and it’s a huge home game for them in their new place)
@ Ohio State: Loss (close, but Pryor will do what he has to against our defense)
Iowa: Win (screw them!)
Purdue: Win (they just aren’t very good)
@ Indiana: Win (still Indiana football)
Michigan: Win (but close, they will be much improved and their option will hurt our defense)
@ Northwestern: Win (another close one; their defense is better than ours, but our offense will prevail)
@ Hawaii: Win (not the same since their coaching change)
That’s an unreasonably optimistic 10-2, with a terrible out-of-conference schedule, and optimistic picks against Michigan State, Iowa, and Northwestern. With as weak a Big Ten slate as we have this season (no Penn State or Illinois, still rebuidling Michigan, MSU with a new quarterback and running back, Iowa has a new running back, and Northwestern has a new quarterback), 10-2 just isn't that impressive. Worse than 8-4 would be a disaster of a season.
The Injury Bug: Depth Concerns
Bad news for senior outside linebacker Erik Prather. He suffered a knee injury that likely ended his hopes to play in 2009, his last year of eligibility. Last week defensive end Louis Nzegwu was lost for the Spring (MCL). Although he should return in the fall, missing that practice will hurt. Missing practice can't compare to missing his senior year, as Prather is now likely dealing with. Both losses are tough from a depth perspective, too.
At linebacker, Bielema said he plans to move Kevin Rouse to the outside to Prather's spot on the two-deep (behind McFadden), and move Leonard Hubbard, a redshirt freshman, into Rouse's spot at middle linebacker. That means that of the 6 linebackers in the two-deep, only four have played a down at the collegiate level. While the Badgers will have enough bodies with the true freshman coming in, we will be very short on experience.
Likewise, on the defensive line we were already looking at a nearly brand new crew. With Nzegwu' knee injury, Anthony Mains and Tyler Westphal need to step up. While Nzegwu should be back in the fall, the Badgers can't afford to be thin at end. Like the linebacking corps, the incoming freshman will provide the bodies, but not the experience we need.
Here's how I project the two-deep on defense for the Spring (number corresponds to year eligibility, 4 is max; * is a 4-star recruit):
At linebacker, Bielema said he plans to move Kevin Rouse to the outside to Prather's spot on the two-deep (behind McFadden), and move Leonard Hubbard, a redshirt freshman, into Rouse's spot at middle linebacker. That means that of the 6 linebackers in the two-deep, only four have played a down at the collegiate level. While the Badgers will have enough bodies with the true freshman coming in, we will be very short on experience.
Likewise, on the defensive line we were already looking at a nearly brand new crew. With Nzegwu' knee injury, Anthony Mains and Tyler Westphal need to step up. While Nzegwu should be back in the fall, the Badgers can't afford to be thin at end. Like the linebacking corps, the incoming freshman will provide the bodies, but not the experience we need.
Here's how I project the two-deep on defense for the Spring (number corresponds to year eligibility, 4 is max; * is a 4-star recruit):
Notes from Bielema
Coach Bielema gave an enlightening interview to the Big Ten Network, below. Some things of note:
(1) Sherer is in the lead. He says so specifically. Something I noticed about the quarterback discussion in 2007 and 2008? Bielema and Chryst both gave direct answers that were prescient about who would start. With Donovan, he had an understanding of the playbook and toughness, whereas Evridge needed more consistency. Then with Evridge it was experience, but everyone needed to be more consistent (then experience wasn't getting it done). All of that was absolutely true.
Bielema's doing the same things. (1) Sherer has the "upper hand" and has taken a big step forward this Spring. (2) Notice the paucity of remarks about Phillips. The only thing he says is that the Spring start last year helped him; nothing about what he's doing right. (3) Tolzein does certain things well, but isn't flexible: i.e., doesn't read defenses, breakdowns well. (4) Budmayr? Looks good. Seriously, we aren't starting a true freshman.
Bielema tells us what he's thinking, really. I'll be moderately surprised if Sherer isn't the starter in the fall.
Some other things? He was more positive about Clay than Settle was a week ago. Still, expect Brown to get around 40% of the carries. He's more versatile, and Clay's size won't allow him to take many more than 60% of the carries.
Oglesby vs. Konz? This is the big battle that's suprising folks (Bscherer is firmly planted at guard). A by-line in an article in the Journal Sentinel, and now Bielema's comments to BTN? Ok, maybe. Taking a wild guess, the coaches think Oglesby isn't working hard enough and they're pushing him to work harder. As long as he responds, he's still the right tackle.
There's been a lot of emphasis on the change in the conditioning program. I like big, strong football players. What I'm hoping is that we have a defense that isn't gassed in the second half. That's been a consistent theme over the years under Bielema. It needs to end.
The team is practicing turnovers. That's a good thing. It was a major problem last season, so I'm happy to hear the coaching staff is addressing it.
Finally, no more weakside or strongside linebackers. Like the safeties and also the ends, the defense will be playing left and right, not strong and weak. Apparently this is part of the recognition of how things need to change to defend the spread.
Here's the interview:
(1) Sherer is in the lead. He says so specifically. Something I noticed about the quarterback discussion in 2007 and 2008? Bielema and Chryst both gave direct answers that were prescient about who would start. With Donovan, he had an understanding of the playbook and toughness, whereas Evridge needed more consistency. Then with Evridge it was experience, but everyone needed to be more consistent (then experience wasn't getting it done). All of that was absolutely true.
Bielema's doing the same things. (1) Sherer has the "upper hand" and has taken a big step forward this Spring. (2) Notice the paucity of remarks about Phillips. The only thing he says is that the Spring start last year helped him; nothing about what he's doing right. (3) Tolzein does certain things well, but isn't flexible: i.e., doesn't read defenses, breakdowns well. (4) Budmayr? Looks good. Seriously, we aren't starting a true freshman.
Bielema tells us what he's thinking, really. I'll be moderately surprised if Sherer isn't the starter in the fall.
Some other things? He was more positive about Clay than Settle was a week ago. Still, expect Brown to get around 40% of the carries. He's more versatile, and Clay's size won't allow him to take many more than 60% of the carries.
Oglesby vs. Konz? This is the big battle that's suprising folks (Bscherer is firmly planted at guard). A by-line in an article in the Journal Sentinel, and now Bielema's comments to BTN? Ok, maybe. Taking a wild guess, the coaches think Oglesby isn't working hard enough and they're pushing him to work harder. As long as he responds, he's still the right tackle.
There's been a lot of emphasis on the change in the conditioning program. I like big, strong football players. What I'm hoping is that we have a defense that isn't gassed in the second half. That's been a consistent theme over the years under Bielema. It needs to end.
The team is practicing turnovers. That's a good thing. It was a major problem last season, so I'm happy to hear the coaching staff is addressing it.
Finally, no more weakside or strongside linebackers. Like the safeties and also the ends, the defense will be playing left and right, not strong and weak. Apparently this is part of the recognition of how things need to change to defend the spread.
Here's the interview:
Rolling Along Through Spring Practice
First, tracking Potrykus's comments, I'm sticking with my obscenely early snap decision that Sherer will be the starter. And I'm ok with that.
The Sentinel's (unattributed, but got to believe it's Potrykus's) latest practice report has some good info in it. From the sound of things, expect Toon as a starting wide receiver. It's good to hear that Jefferson is doing something to reduce his exposure to further concussions, but with the solid reports Toon is getting, I'm assuming he'll be the first on the field (with Anderson). As I said the other day, I think 3 WRs will be a pretty common set for the Badgers, with a TE rather than a fullback. That's where Gilreath will come in, I think. On the other hand, with Mickey Turner flashing some skills in practice, Chryst may have a tough decision whether to go that way, or two tight ends, which might give him as many weapons receiving, and better versatility running. Either way, don't expect to see our new fullbacks (Jones, Ewing, and Spitz) on the field as often as you saw Pressley and Rentmeester last season.
Two more notes from the report: it sounds like the DBs are playing pretty well (also here), and Pat Hughes, a walk-on, will be the back-up kicker with Fischer off to Cornell (Potrykus asks Bielema about it on video; also an interesting discussion of the DBs, including focus on Otis Merrill who remains buried in the depth chart).
Speaking of the secondary, another note from the JS gives a little background on the Shane Carter "incident" that kept him out of the bowl (not academics, as I previously misstated). Also, Potrykus reiterates what Coach Cooks said last week, that the safeties will play one side and the other, but not a traditional strong and free safety. In the back of my head that worries me a little re Valai, who's height might be a liability in a free safety-type role -- on the other hand, it's probably a liability no matter what. Despite that, he got consistently better last year, and I expect will do the same this year.
JJ Watt sounds like the real deal at DT. I remain not terribly concerned about the d-line.
Badgerbeat reiterates what Coach Settle had to say about John Clay: lose weight, understand the playbook. Clay has been up around 250, but needs to get to 240, preferably a little lower than that. I've got to believe Clay will stay at #1 on the depth chart, but if he doesn't get a better handle on the playbook, we'll see more of Zach Brown. Not a bad thing. Zach can play.
The Sentinel's (unattributed, but got to believe it's Potrykus's) latest practice report has some good info in it. From the sound of things, expect Toon as a starting wide receiver. It's good to hear that Jefferson is doing something to reduce his exposure to further concussions, but with the solid reports Toon is getting, I'm assuming he'll be the first on the field (with Anderson). As I said the other day, I think 3 WRs will be a pretty common set for the Badgers, with a TE rather than a fullback. That's where Gilreath will come in, I think. On the other hand, with Mickey Turner flashing some skills in practice, Chryst may have a tough decision whether to go that way, or two tight ends, which might give him as many weapons receiving, and better versatility running. Either way, don't expect to see our new fullbacks (Jones, Ewing, and Spitz) on the field as often as you saw Pressley and Rentmeester last season.
Two more notes from the report: it sounds like the DBs are playing pretty well (also here), and Pat Hughes, a walk-on, will be the back-up kicker with Fischer off to Cornell (Potrykus asks Bielema about it on video; also an interesting discussion of the DBs, including focus on Otis Merrill who remains buried in the depth chart).
Speaking of the secondary, another note from the JS gives a little background on the Shane Carter "incident" that kept him out of the bowl (not academics, as I previously misstated). Also, Potrykus reiterates what Coach Cooks said last week, that the safeties will play one side and the other, but not a traditional strong and free safety. In the back of my head that worries me a little re Valai, who's height might be a liability in a free safety-type role -- on the other hand, it's probably a liability no matter what. Despite that, he got consistently better last year, and I expect will do the same this year.
JJ Watt sounds like the real deal at DT. I remain not terribly concerned about the d-line.
Badgerbeat reiterates what Coach Settle had to say about John Clay: lose weight, understand the playbook. Clay has been up around 250, but needs to get to 240, preferably a little lower than that. I've got to believe Clay will stay at #1 on the depth chart, but if he doesn't get a better handle on the playbook, we'll see more of Zach Brown. Not a bad thing. Zach can play.
Spring Preview: DBs
Defensive Backs
One word to describe the Badger defensive backfield headed into the Spring? Depth. At safety there are three players with a year-plus of starting experience. Big-hitting Valai is the obvious starter at strong safety, but Pleasant continues to push him and played well in the second half last season. You can't teach height, and that's always a concern with Valai. Free safety is a little tougher to sort out. Shane Carter looked to be a star two years ago, but it hasn't happened yet. Transfer Chris Maragos pushed him for playing time last season, replacing him as the starter for a while. They will continue to battle. Carter looks like he has more raw talent, but in his 5th season, he needs to capitalize on it to hold off Maragos's determined push for the starting spot.
At the corners Aaron Henry returning -- as long as his knee really is fully recovered -- is good news, giving at least the potential for a true lock-down corner. Goins began last season as the starter, but after he went down to injury Niles Brinkley played well. They will battle hard for the starting spot, with one likely becoming the nickel back. I suspect Goins will regain his starting spot, but coach Cooks won't hesitate to go with Brinkley.
Devin Smith and Anthony Fenelus were special teams contributors who are expected to round out the two-deep at the corner spots, and the coaching staff is looking at Otis Merrill as an additional contributor. All have potential, but are unlikely to challenge for the starting positions in 2009.
Looking at a backfield that reads Goins, Valai, Maragos, Henry is reassuring, if not earth shattering. This crew, and their backups, will take a little pressure off of the mostly new defensive line on passing downs. Still, when facing elite receivers, one wonders if they will be able to keep pace.
One word to describe the Badger defensive backfield headed into the Spring? Depth. At safety there are three players with a year-plus of starting experience. Big-hitting Valai is the obvious starter at strong safety, but Pleasant continues to push him and played well in the second half last season. You can't teach height, and that's always a concern with Valai. Free safety is a little tougher to sort out. Shane Carter looked to be a star two years ago, but it hasn't happened yet. Transfer Chris Maragos pushed him for playing time last season, replacing him as the starter for a while. They will continue to battle. Carter looks like he has more raw talent, but in his 5th season, he needs to capitalize on it to hold off Maragos's determined push for the starting spot.
At the corners Aaron Henry returning -- as long as his knee really is fully recovered -- is good news, giving at least the potential for a true lock-down corner. Goins began last season as the starter, but after he went down to injury Niles Brinkley played well. They will battle hard for the starting spot, with one likely becoming the nickel back. I suspect Goins will regain his starting spot, but coach Cooks won't hesitate to go with Brinkley.
Devin Smith and Anthony Fenelus were special teams contributors who are expected to round out the two-deep at the corner spots, and the coaching staff is looking at Otis Merrill as an additional contributor. All have potential, but are unlikely to challenge for the starting positions in 2009.
Looking at a backfield that reads Goins, Valai, Maragos, Henry is reassuring, if not earth shattering. This crew, and their backups, will take a little pressure off of the mostly new defensive line on passing downs. Still, when facing elite receivers, one wonders if they will be able to keep pace.
Pre/Post Season
Today the post season begins for the men's basketball and hockey teams. The roundballers start with Ohio State in the Big Ten tourney, and on the ice the Badgers take on Minnesota State (Mankato) at the Kohl Center. Both likely need wins to get to the NCAA tourney. For the hockey team, they will need more than just winning this series with Mankato.
The top-seeded women's hockey team hosts Dartmouth to start the NCAA tourney tomorrow.
It goes without saying, but . . . Go Badgers! On Wisconsin!
Of course, this is a football blog, so we're in the pre-season. UW put up its linebacker preview today. As previously noted, Culmer St. Jean will move to middle linebacker, with Jaevery McFadden moving to the strong side. Blake Sorensen is the most likely starter on the weak side. I'm pretty comfortable with those three as the starters. St. Jean has been well regarded, but unlearned, from the start. With several years under his belt, the learning shouldn't be a problem any longer (and didn't look like it was his extensive action in the last two games last season). McFadden is moving to his more natural position on the outside.
The bigger concern, especially with the news that Hodge isn't coming back, is depth. Yes, everyone's excited about Rouse's talent, and we hear good things about Taylor, Hubbard, and Prather, but there isn't much experience there (practically none outside of special teams). Of the true freshman coming in, O'Neill and Fenton got the most press, but neither of them is likely ready to go this coming Fall.
In short, the problem with the linebackers isn't talent, it's depth.
On the plus side, the defense is much healthier this Spring than it was last year. Hopefully that pays dividends.
The top-seeded women's hockey team hosts Dartmouth to start the NCAA tourney tomorrow.
It goes without saying, but . . . Go Badgers! On Wisconsin!
Of course, this is a football blog, so we're in the pre-season. UW put up its linebacker preview today. As previously noted, Culmer St. Jean will move to middle linebacker, with Jaevery McFadden moving to the strong side. Blake Sorensen is the most likely starter on the weak side. I'm pretty comfortable with those three as the starters. St. Jean has been well regarded, but unlearned, from the start. With several years under his belt, the learning shouldn't be a problem any longer (and didn't look like it was his extensive action in the last two games last season). McFadden is moving to his more natural position on the outside.
The bigger concern, especially with the news that Hodge isn't coming back, is depth. Yes, everyone's excited about Rouse's talent, and we hear good things about Taylor, Hubbard, and Prather, but there isn't much experience there (practically none outside of special teams). Of the true freshman coming in, O'Neill and Fenton got the most press, but neither of them is likely ready to go this coming Fall.
In short, the problem with the linebackers isn't talent, it's depth.
On the plus side, the defense is much healthier this Spring than it was last year. Hopefully that pays dividends.
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