The Problem With Potential
Indeed, every report out of practice this week indicates Phillips is the guy (Adam Hoge says Phillips took over 60% of the snaps yesterday). Jeff Potrykus (Milwaukee Journal Sentinel) hedged and said maybe the staff knows what Sherer brings to the table, and they are just trying to evaluate where the other guys are. Maybe. Probably not (the coaches provided all the clues needed to connect the dots prior to the Donovan and Evridge decisions, I have to assume the same is true this year).
According to those practice reports, while Dustin Sherer still makes bad decisions, Phillips is still "erratic" and also throws picks (to quote Potrykus this week: "Phillips still isn't a polished passer. Nevertheless, more often than not the ball arrives on time and in a place that allows the receiver to make a play." [In a different article] "However, [Phillips'] throwing was erratic."). Based on these reviews, it sounds as though the coaches are implementing the above theory: if it's close, go with the guy still developing. So here we go.
Generally I don't disagree with the theory: Phillips will continue getting better, so let's go with him rather than someone who's likely already peaked (or near it). The problem comes when we're in a tight game -- maybe down a score -- and Phillips has been playing badly: throwing incompletions and picks, trying to do too much with his feet while our best receivers in 5 or more years languish unused. Do you put someone else in?
With all the talk about Scott Tolzein being a safe #2, wouldn't you rather have the guy who has the bigger arm and the potential for bigger plays lead you back (not to mention 7 career starts): you know, like the strikes to David Gilreath in last year's Illinois game and Isaac Anderson in the Minnesota game? Do the Badgers then effectively end up with a two-quarterback system? That dog don't hunt.Last season when Bielema addressed the quarterback derby he talked about the obligation to go with the guy who gives the best chance of winning today, not next year. If Chryst and Bielema have in the back of their heads that maybe Sherer is really that guy, and not Phillips, will they be too quick to give Phillips the hook? We can't have that.
Now, I've been a Sherer proponent, but the chorus is pretty loud that he hasn't made the strides the Badgers need him to. Assuming that's the case (and the coaches and folks attending practice know better than me), then it's time for someone else.The coaches are at the practices and want to win even more than I do. I trust they will make the right decision on the quarterback. But that doesn't mean I'm not nervous about it. I think it's next Wednesday that the starter is announced.
Whomever we go with, it's got to be concrete. Period. Can you give a guy the hook if he's awful (see Evridge vs. Penn State)? Yes, but if they have any doubts about their decision it will end badly.
Pick someone and stick with him.
It's a Numbers Game
Kyle Jefferson takes his third number in three years (previously #14 and #7) at #3, worn by maybe THE great all-time Badger receiver, Lee Evans.
Blake Sorenson abandons #27 (my favorite number) to take up #9, most recently used by Beckum, and before him Orr; if it does for him on defense what it did for them on offense, not too shabby. Oh, and some guy named Paul Chryst also wore it once (also on offense).
Finally, J.J. Watt switches from #87, a tight-end-feeling number, to #99, a dominate-the-line kind of number (best worn, apparently, by Rick Graf, a linebacker before my time).
Some other notes:
No one on the roster is listed as a fullback.
As for the incoming freshman?
Fan-favorite-in-the-making, QB Jon Budmayr will wear #5, same as that Brooks Bollinger fella.
DL David Gilbert will wear #11, worn best in my memory by Darrell Bevell and Owen Daniels, and also well by DeAndre Levy. DB Ed Withers, the Badgers' first Black All-American (twice), also wore the number.
DB Desmond Southward better be tough as he takes the #12 abandoned by Jay Valai and Tyler Donovan.
Stud LB recruit Conor O'Neill takes #13, a number ordinarily worn on offense, but I like it when linebackers wear those low numbers.
WR Jeff Duckworth is #15, worn once by some Vander Kelen guy you may have heard of.
DB Josh Peprah is #17, left behind by All-Big Ten and team MVP CB Allen Langford.
DB Darious Thomas is #23, but with DB Mario Goins already wearing #23, the newcomer appears slated to redshirt.
Highly touted RB Montee Ball may be looking to make a new number famous for Badger backs, coming in at #31.
LB Ethan Armstrong is #36 worn not too long ago by, get this, freshman linebacker Travis Beckum.
LB AJ Fenton is #39, vacated by PJ Hill.
LB Chris Borland takes #44, worn by Rose Bowl-contributing linebacker Donnel Thompson (we need some more great walk-ons . . .).
TE Jacob Peterson takes #48, which has primarily been a linebacker's number, but worth noting that Garrett Graham wore it his freshman year.
TE Brian Wozniak takes #49.
DL Tyler Dippel is #51, worn best by C "Iron" Mike Webster, a 9-time pro-bowler, and 4-time Super Bowl winner, also on the NFL's 75th anniversary team (not bad; but he left us way too soon).
LB Nick Hill is #52, worn by another center, All-American Cory Ramer, a key cog on the '93 Rose Bowl team, and an 11-year NFLer.
OL Casey Dehn is #63, also worn by a '93 Rose Bowl contributor, G Joe Rudolph (maybe Dehn will fill in some much needed depth at guard?).
OL Travis Frederick is #72. That Joe Thomas guy wore #72. No pressure though.
OL Zach Matthias is #75. All-American Tackle Chris McIntosh wore #75.
DL Ethan Hemer is also #75
OL Ryan Groy is #79. Another solid lineman, Aaron Gibson anchored the line for the '99 Rose Bowl team at #79.
Anticipated star, WR Kraig Appleton took, perhaps looking for a number to blaze his own way as a great Badger receiver, #81.
DL Shelby Harris will live in Garrett Graham's shadow at #89
DL Jordan Kohout is #91 perhaps hoping to live up to lineman Don Davey's long shadow.
DL Pat Muldoon is #92, taking over where Matt Shaughnessy left off.
TE Michael Brunner and K Pat Hughes selected #96, a number not associated with great Badger tight ends or kickers.
Always good to link to these: All-Time Badger Roster, and my take on it, here.
Starting Offense?
No offense to Jones, Spitz, and Ewing, but based on the talent we have, I think you're looking at fewer downs with a fullback in the backfield. I think the sets we'll see the most from Chryst will be two tight ends, two wide receivers, or three wide receivers, 1 tight end, only one tailback. See 2005 (3/1 sets) and 2006 (no healthy fullbacks, lots of 2/2 sets). I'm also thinking that we'll see a Moss/Fletcher circa '93 type split of backfield duties. Brown is the better all-around back, but Clay just brings too much to the table for him not to get the majority of the carries. It's not going to be a feature back system, though. I think we'll see about a 60/40 Clay to Brown split in snaps.
From what we're hearing Toon must be locking down a starting spot on the outside. Maybe the bigger question is who is the #1 receiver, Anderson or Gilreath. I'm sticking with Anderson, and keeping Gilreath as #3, which means lots of playing time. You have to like the flexibility you get with Graham and Kendricks (or Turner) in there. Two tight ends with traditional size and blocking ability, plus Toon's size for downfield blocking. Clay and Brown should love the opportunities they get on the ground. And with Brown in there, you're looking at a formation (the 2/2) that could run a power dive, or send 5 solid receivers into pass patterns. That can happen with both tight ends in, or Chryst can send Kendricks wide, as he has before, effectively giving the Badgers a 3/1 set with 2/2 personnel. Chryst obviously knows way more about all of this than I ever will, but I'm salivating at the possibilities.
P.S. Konz practicing with the 1st team looks more and more like a ploy to get Oglesby practicing harder. Oglesby is your starting right tackle.
And then there's the quarterback issue. So anyway, here's how I see the starting lineup, depending on whether we're 3/1 or 2/2 WRs to TEs:
The Injury Bug: Depth Concerns
At linebacker, Bielema said he plans to move Kevin Rouse to the outside to Prather's spot on the two-deep (behind McFadden), and move Leonard Hubbard, a redshirt freshman, into Rouse's spot at middle linebacker. That means that of the 6 linebackers in the two-deep, only four have played a down at the collegiate level. While the Badgers will have enough bodies with the true freshman coming in, we will be very short on experience.
Likewise, on the defensive line we were already looking at a nearly brand new crew. With Nzegwu' knee injury, Anthony Mains and Tyler Westphal need to step up. While Nzegwu should be back in the fall, the Badgers can't afford to be thin at end. Like the linebacking corps, the incoming freshman will provide the bodies, but not the experience we need.
Here's how I project the two-deep on defense for the Spring (number corresponds to year eligibility, 4 is max; * is a 4-star recruit):
Flexibility and the Pro Style Offense
I have said before that Wisconsin's offense (under Chryst) resembles Notre Dame's offense (under Weis), but with key personnel differences. Whereas Notre Dame has top-end quarterback talent, the Badgers have relied on a punishing rushing attack. Or at least so goes the theory. The Blue-Gray Sky, an excellent Notre Dame football blog, just published an expose of at least one of the problems with the Notre Dame offense, here.
You'll note their discussion of the packages Notre Dame runs; they look a lot like the ones we run. The three biggest under Weis have been: (1) 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 RB; (2) 2 WR, 2 TE, 1 RB; and (3) 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 RB, 1 FB. Same as us. Now this is no great revelation; those are your traditional pro sets.
The big problem BGS identifies with Notre Dame's offensive production is predictability. Sound familiar? In their case, losing the ability to field two-tight end sets made them much more predictable. Especially because no one respected their run game. That should sound familiar, too, if an inverse of our problem last year. Injuries limited our ability to field the two-tight end set, no one respected our passing game. As a result we were very predictable. The key isn’t necessarily the two-tight end set; it’s flexibility, but the two-tight end set helps create flexibility.
Oddly, 2005 may have been the panacea for both teams' offenses. The Irish had Quinn going to Stovall and Samardzija, along with Fasano at tight end and Darius Walker as the running back. All of those guys are pro athletes now (Samardzija is a Cub, but the rest are in the League, as are several of their lineman). It was a good year for the Badgers, too, with Stocco, Williams and Orr, Daniels, and Calhoun. A step down in talent at QB and WR, but pretty solid players. And what did both offenses have? Flexibility. Quality receiving threats, including at TE, quality running backs, and quality quarterbacks running the show. Just like Notre Dame, in 2005 we were versatile. Stocco threw the ball 46% of the time on first down.[i] When Stocco was dealing with 9 new starters on the offense, in 2006,[ii] he was down to passing only 40% of the time on first down.
There's another piece, hinted at above: other than the quarterback, who's on the field? From '05 to '06, Stocco lost all of his "skill position" players. Not surprisingly, even with a quality quarterback, Chryst got a little more conservative, and went to the running game a little more often, and in the passing game, it was all tight ends, all the time. Well, almost. Of the 53 passing plays I could identify the receiver, 51% were to tight ends (Beckum and Crooks), 47% to WRs (Hubbard and Swan; only 3 to backs). Contrast that with '05, when Stocco went to his receivers 57% of the time, and his other throws were evenly divided between his backs (mostly Calhoun) and his tight ends (mostly Daniels).
Moving on to 2007, Donovan is under center, and the other skill players are the same: Hubbard, Swan, Beckum, Graham (Crooks was injured most of the season) and Hill. On first down?[iii] Passing 41% of the time; about the same as Stocco with the same lineup. And Donovan's targets overall? 49% tight ends, only 41% to the receivers. The remaining 10% went to backs. Not surprising that Chryst would have a first year starter throwing more to check downs than Stocco, a three-year starter.
And then we get to 2008. Not unlike the Irish in 2008, there was only one thing we could do well: run the ball (ND couldn’t do that; they passed the ball well). Our tight ends were dinged up and our down field threat was, let’s say . . . limited. So, on first down Evridge passes only 25% of the time, and Sherer only passed 23% of the time.[iv] That’s awfully one-dimensional.
Where did the 2008 passing plays go? Evridge threw to his tight ends (54%) and his backs (9%), with just 37% of his throws to wide receivers. Sherer, in contrast, found his receivers (53%) and his tight ends 43%, with only two throws to his backs (4%). For both, a tight end was the leading receiver (Beckum, then Graham, respectively; injuries to both playing a role), but Sherer spread the ball around more to his receivers.[v] Regardless of who was catching the ball, the Badgers relied too much on the run. The lack of flexibility translated to predictability.
Which leads us to Spring 2009. Coming back to the offense may be a better set of weapons than we had in 2005. At tailback we have the punishing Clay (more fleet of foot than Hill, by a fair margin), “all-around” Zach Brown, and either Erik Smith or Montee Ball (when he matriculates in the Fall). The wide receivers are likely led by Isaac Anderson, but Nick Toon has been flashing his skills of late, David Gilreath is a big-play threat, and Kyle Jefferson isn’t far behind Toon. With Garrett Graham back along with Mickey Turner and H-backish Lance Kendricks, we’re well stocked at tight end. That’s a lot of skill on the offense by Badger football standards.
That leaves the same gaping question: the quarterback.
And that leads me back to Sherer vs. Phillips and Budmayr. We need someone who can manage a complex offense. As much as Budmayr may be a future star, a true freshman with one Spring camp under his belt, isn’t likely to do it. Not unless we want a repeat of last year’s single dimensional offense. So, Phillips and Sherer.[vi] It doesn’t come down to who throws the better spiral or who has the bigger cannon for an arm. It’s the guy that can best spread it around. He needs to understand the variety in the offense, and he needs to get the ball there.
As Bielema said the other day, Sherer has a clear advantage in understanding the offense. 2009 will be his 5th season with the Chyrst playbook vs. Phillips’s second (and last season Phillips was mostly running the scout team). That means Phillips has to be that much better than Sherer at getting the ball to his receivers.[vii] Can he be? I’d say it’s a tough hill to climb.
At this point, I’d say the odds should be on Sherer, and the fans should be happy about it. He’s already shown that he’s capable of spreading the ball around. If he can lock down a little more throwing consistency, he could be a solid game manager. And that’s all we really need to return flexibility to the Badger offense.
And two-tight end sets.
[i] Evaluating three competitive games in ’05:
[ii] Against
[iii] Against
[iv] When not in the 2-minute drill. Evridge is against
[v] Keeping in mind that these statistics are just from two competitive games, it’s tough to extrapolate too much, but in those games Sherer found Graham 14 times,
This isn’t entirely fair to Evridge. With two healthy tight ends, against
[vi] It’s unfair that I’m not including Tolzien, but I have yet to see a report that indicates he’s a serious contender to start.
[vii] Phillips’ running ability is nice, but we have capable backs and we don’t run a spread option.
But Seriously . . . J.J. Watt
In other news, it sounds like we're going to see a lot of JJ Watt on the defensive line over the next few years. He's getting rave review after rave review. Here's UW's introduction to him. I'm a hockey player, myself, so his stock just soared in my book. More important than a sport he gave up when he was 13, let's hope he causes as much havoc in our opponents backfield as he seems to do in our practices.
On the substantive side of things, here's what the UW editors thought to put in Spring Pratice Report #3 about JJ:
Defensive Play of the Day
With the pads finally on, it was a chance for both the offensive and defensive lines to go live and the first chance for observers to catch a glimpse of the new faces on both sides of the ball going at full speed. One of those faces, one that the coaches have talked about a lot, was sophomore J.J. Watt. He wasted little time showing why the coaches are excited about him.
A portion of practice was reserved for “inside drills,” basically offense vs. defense without wide receivers and defensive backs. It consists of both lines, linebackers and running backs and features exclusively running plays. On each of the first two plays, Watt came off his block to make the play either at or behind the line of scrimmage. Then, on the first play of full team drills (11-on-11), Watt again beat his blocker to make the stop on running back John Clay behind the line of scrimmage.
5 Questions for Spring Practice? How About 3 . . .
It seems fashionable to ask 5 questions for spring practice, and I guess, if pressed, I can come up with five, but I think there are really three critical questions:
(1) Who is the quarterback? Really, this is the only question. All else pales in comparison. If ESPN is reporting on it, you know that it's common knowledge. As the quarterback goes, so go the Badger fortunes in 2009. Sherer? Phillips? Tolzein isn't really in the equation, is he? Budmayr? No. Not as a true freshman who hasn't taken a competitive snap in over a year. The coaches' video on the quarterbacks: here.
(2) How do the new folks look in our defensive front seven? Largely new defensive line and a complete reshuffling at linebacker (McFadden is back, but in a new position).
(3) Can our receivers hang onto the ball? Last year there were dropsies all over the field. To give the offense the diversity Chryst so badly wants, we need receivers who hang onto the ball.
By my count, those are the three big questions.
For those of you who really want five, (4) how does Henry look at corner? Recovered? (5) How do the semi-new faces on the offensive line look?
But don't kid yourself even with three questions, it's all about the quarterback.
Here is Potrykus's version.
The Case For Phillips
(2) Better legs than Sherer
(3) Let's not kid ourselves, Sherer was the guy who couldn't beat out Evridge in the fall last year.
(4) Time
Sure, he'd have some growing pains, but isn't the time for annually having a new quarterback under center over? Maybe he'd be a little rough around the edges, but he's got a solid supporting cast. Moreover, look at their eligibility. Anderson, Gilreath, Toon, Kendricks, Clay . . . all have at least two years left. The offense will only lose two players after the 2009 season to eligibility: Bscherer (who may not even start over Oglesby), and Graham (who is a big loss anyway you cut it). Wouldn't it be nice to have some continuity for the rest of the offense. Can you imagine the potential for that offense in 2010?
And again, it's not as though Sherer was lighting things up last season. Potrykus says you've gotta play for today, not for next year, but this quarterback derby has to end. It's been terrible for the Chryst offense.
The backup is always the fan favorite. To be honest, the case isn't overwhelming for Phillips. However . . .
At the end of the day, if Sherer isn't comfortably ahead of Phillips at the end of the Spring, shouldn't Phillips enter the Fall number one?
PS: ESPN blogger's *probing* interview with Bielema here (I thought BB didn't like bloggers?).
Why Sherer Should Start
So, Phillips or Sherer. The fan money is on Phillips, right? Phillips was Mr. Tennessee. You know: talent, SEC speed, the whole deal. Sherer will be a 5th year senior who won the starting job last season after Evridge cratered in the first 2-1/2 Big Ten games. Remember the Champs Sports Bowl? Pretty ugly, right? I'm not so sure.
First, do we really want a redshirt freshman starting with the team we're going to send out. We have one of the better (and complimentary) running tandem's the Badgers have had, we have outstanding tight ends, and more experience at wide receiver than we've had in three years, and our line is in pretty decent shape, despite the new starters in three spots. Wouldn't solid quarterback play go a long way to making this a highly efficient offense?
So Sherer wasn't exactly an all-American last year, but he was also thrown in mid-season, having spent the better part of the fall taking limited snaps in practice. He made some great plays against Illinois, Michigan State, and Minnesota. Even against Florida State he made some fantastic throws (in the first half he hit Graham for an amazing 3rd down play inside our own 10). He appears to have a better arm than either Evridge or Donovan. In addition, more so than any quarterback since Stocco in his junior year, Sherer found open wide receivers. He spread the ball around better than Donovan, and better even than Stocco in his senior year. The '09 offense is built to keep the bad guys off balance by spreading the ball around.
Did he make some mistakes? Sure, but is that a big surprise for a guy who's just now starting? Did he learn some lessons? You bet he did. Lessons Phillips would have to learn this season. In addition, he's been in the Chryst system for five years, and he's taken a lot of meaningful snaps and reps. Phillips spent last season on the practice squad, so he's not nearly as well immersed in how the Chryst offense works.
Do we really want a redshirt freshman starting? Wouldn't it be nice to get Phillips a full year as the back-up quarterback so that his sophomore year (by eligibility) he can step in with three full years ahead of him, and a full year behind him practicing in Chryst's system?
That's the argument for Sherer. Don't be surprised if he comes out of camp at the number 1 spot on the depth chart. It might well be for the best.
Spring Preview: Receivers Coming of Age?
I'm an Isaac Anderson fan. He has good size, good speed, and good hands. Among the current crop of receivers he has the biggest immediate upside and at least some people thought of he had the best pure talent coming in as a recruit. Coming off an injury the year before, he has two years of eligibility left. If the guy under center is good, Anderson can become a real star.
The third receiver is probably the toughest call. Kyle Jefferson started his freshman campaign in part due to Anderson's injuries. He has played well, but drops too many passes. Unfortunately, Jefferson suffered a concussion his freshman year, and again last season, in addition to other injuries. Concussions aren't something to be trifled with, so Jefferson's role may be limited. Given the opportunity to step in last season, Nick Toon played well, if not exceptionally well. He, like practically every other receiver in the corps, needs to do a better job catching balls thrown his way. However, with his size and speed, Toon has a lot of potential, and three more years to realize it. Fans are excited about Toon's NFL-sized pedigree, which is nice, but it's plays he makes, not the ones his dad made, that will make or break him for the Badgers.
Mo Moore and Daven Jones are both fighting back from injuries and will be limited in the Spring. They, too, have solid upside, but are understandably further down the depth chart. With true-freshman Appleton and Duckworth coming in, as well as redshirt freshman TJ Williams, and contributing fifth-year senior TJ Theus back for a final round, there should be plenty of depth on the outside for the Badgers.
I honestly believe Anderson, Toon, and Gilreath (with Jefferson thrown in) could be one of the best sets of starters the Badgers have had. The depth behind them is an added bonus. The key for that to happen is twofold:
(1) to catch the darn ball; and
(2) a quarterback who gets them the ball routinely
Seriously, this Badger offense has a ton of potential. It all hinges on the quarterback . . .
Spring Preview: DBs
One word to describe the Badger defensive backfield headed into the Spring? Depth. At safety there are three players with a year-plus of starting experience. Big-hitting Valai is the obvious starter at strong safety, but Pleasant continues to push him and played well in the second half last season. You can't teach height, and that's always a concern with Valai. Free safety is a little tougher to sort out. Shane Carter looked to be a star two years ago, but it hasn't happened yet. Transfer Chris Maragos pushed him for playing time last season, replacing him as the starter for a while. They will continue to battle. Carter looks like he has more raw talent, but in his 5th season, he needs to capitalize on it to hold off Maragos's determined push for the starting spot.
At the corners Aaron Henry returning -- as long as his knee really is fully recovered -- is good news, giving at least the potential for a true lock-down corner. Goins began last season as the starter, but after he went down to injury Niles Brinkley played well. They will battle hard for the starting spot, with one likely becoming the nickel back. I suspect Goins will regain his starting spot, but coach Cooks won't hesitate to go with Brinkley.
Devin Smith and Anthony Fenelus were special teams contributors who are expected to round out the two-deep at the corner spots, and the coaching staff is looking at Otis Merrill as an additional contributor. All have potential, but are unlikely to challenge for the starting positions in 2009.
Looking at a backfield that reads Goins, Valai, Maragos, Henry is reassuring, if not earth shattering. This crew, and their backups, will take a little pressure off of the mostly new defensive line on passing downs. Still, when facing elite receivers, one wonders if they will be able to keep pace.
Spring Preview: Tight Ends
The question here isn't quality. Rather it's can the Badgers avoid the slew of injuries that hit the tight end corps last season? If they do, look out. Chryst will come at the opposition with all kinds of clever uses for his tight ends. This year shapes up to be another step towards making UW the new Tight End U.
Pre/Post Season
The top-seeded women's hockey team hosts Dartmouth to start the NCAA tourney tomorrow.
It goes without saying, but . . . Go Badgers! On Wisconsin!
Of course, this is a football blog, so we're in the pre-season. UW put up its linebacker preview today. As previously noted, Culmer St. Jean will move to middle linebacker, with Jaevery McFadden moving to the strong side. Blake Sorensen is the most likely starter on the weak side. I'm pretty comfortable with those three as the starters. St. Jean has been well regarded, but unlearned, from the start. With several years under his belt, the learning shouldn't be a problem any longer (and didn't look like it was his extensive action in the last two games last season). McFadden is moving to his more natural position on the outside.
The bigger concern, especially with the news that Hodge isn't coming back, is depth. Yes, everyone's excited about Rouse's talent, and we hear good things about Taylor, Hubbard, and Prather, but there isn't much experience there (practically none outside of special teams). Of the true freshman coming in, O'Neill and Fenton got the most press, but neither of them is likely ready to go this coming Fall.
In short, the problem with the linebackers isn't talent, it's depth.
On the plus side, the defense is much healthier this Spring than it was last year. Hopefully that pays dividends.
Spring Previews
Of note, reshirt freshman Peter Konz has been switched from defense to offensive guard for this year. Line coach Bostad says Konz, Zeitler, and Current will compete for the left guard spot. Interesting battle shaping up for right tackle between Bscherer and Oglesby who have both seen significant time on the field at tackle. Current looks to be the backup center, but that hasn't prevented players from starting at guard before. Guard depth still looks like an issue. In sum, Carimi says (in the video UW offers) "We're mean." A lot meaner than years past, or so he says. That should be interesting . . .
For the defensive line, no big surprises. One change is it looks like Dan Moore will move from end to tackle. Transfer J.J. Watt, after sitting out last season, is getting a lot of attention for serious playing time this fall. In no particular order, Schofield, Kelly, Nzegwu and Mains are the likely two-deep at end, with Moore, Watt, Stehle, and Butrym likely the same for the tackle spots.
No surprises at running back, either. Clay, Brown, then the young guys. Concerns about depth, however, appear overstated. Fullback? It looks like this blind squirrel found a nut when predicting that Dex Jones might just be our next starting fullback. A little surprise is that Brady Ewing might be in the mix at fullback rather than halfback, as will walk-on Sam Spitz. Reading Coach Settle's comments, maybe the offense plans to use the fullback a little more to catch the ball out of the backfield? (In 2008, the Badgers completed one pass to a fullback.)
Although the Badgers haven't posted a quarterback preview yet, ESPN ran a little piece on Chryst's latest quarterback derby -- as basically everyone knows -- the biggest question heading into the Spring. Other than the puzzling statement that Budmayr was the Badgers' biggest quarterback recruit in years (1 year after the higher-rated, Mr. Tennessee Football, Phillips?),* the article seems pretty spot on.
You can find all of UW's Spring rundowns here.
Not to be overlooked, as Scott Tappa noted (as well as the media outlets), Elijah Hodge, Xavier Harris, and James Stallons won't return with the Badgers. Hodge will graduate in May and will forego his 5th year of eligibility in Madison. Harris's back has never sufficiently recovered from injury. His playing days are over, but he's on track to graduate (still on scholarship) next year. Stallons? With Phillips and Budmayr on the younger end of things and Tolzein and Sherer on the older, maybe he just didn't figure to get much playing time. Or maybe it was something else . . . ?
Harris and Hodge will both be missed for the depth they provided. Good for them for taking their education seriously. Both are pretty high profile examples of the injury bug ending bright prospects in football.
* Don't get me wrong, I'm excited about Budmayr's potential, too.
The Chryst Manifesto




Pre Draft Notes
I'd love to see all of these guys do well, but the current Badger class looks to rely on the linemen for it's quality (and Beckum should be a solid role player).
Badger Day in Florida
Some other interesting comments in the article, but I particularly liked hearing the coach and AD emphasizing academics and citizenship. The guys at Wisconsin need to be student athletes. Just this morning I was discussing with a friend what happens to all the guys who aren't playing on Sundays; it's most of them. That degree is important, and it starts with arriving prepared as a Freshman, as Bielema and Alvarez stressed.
Top 10 Badger Victories
Coming in at #10:
October 3, 1992: Wisconsin 20, #12 Ohio State 16. To my mind, this is the game that started it all.
In 1990 Barry Alvarez promised things would be different, but after a 1-10 season (the second in three years) things didn't get off to a great start. Five wins in 1991 were more than the previous three seasons combined, but included only two wins in conference, over fellow cellar-dwellers Minnesota and Northwestern.
In the Fall of 1992 I was a Freshman on campus. Week one featured a respectable 27-10 road loss to #2 -- and defending national (co)champion -- Washington, in the midst of U-Dub's run at the top of the Pac-10. Then two home wins over Bowling Green and Northern Illinois. We were 2-1, but had started the previous season 3-0 with wins over your typical cupcakes before a trip to Ohio State kicked off a 6-game losing streak. Here they were again, #12 Ohio State, ready to ruin our party. I remember sitting in the upper deck with my parents (it was parents' weekend) while the underdog Badgers inexplicably hung on for the win. It didn't translate to immediate success. The next week we lost at Kinnick, and with losses to the likes of Indiana and Northwestern, we finished the year at 5-6 -- again. But it was the start of something. Wisconsin hadn't beaten a ranked team since beating then #3 Ohio state in 1985, and had only beaten two ranked teams in the prior 10 years (ironically, the other one was also Ohio State, in 1984). It was a sign of things to come in the Alvarez Era.
#9: December 28, 2002, Alamo Bowl: Wisconsin 31, #14 Colorado 28 (OT)
7-6 Wisconsin limped into the Alamo Bowl, losing six of their final eight regular season games. In San Antonio they lined up against heavily favored #14 Colorado. Two second-half fumbles gifted Colorado scoring drives of 26 and 17 yards, to take a 28-21 lead. In one of the more remarkable finishes in Badger history, the Badgers were still down 7 with 2:25 to play when they took over at their own 20.
On first down, Brooks Bollinger hit Brandon Williams for 32 yards, but after a loss of 4, two incomplete passes, and a 9-yard penalty, the Badgers faced 4th and 14 at their own 48. Bollinger again went to Williams, this time for 26 yards over the middle to keep their hopes alive. Two more incompletions and on third and ten Bollinger dropped a beautiful pass in stride to Freshman Jonathon Orr . . . who dropped the sure touchdown. On their last, desperate 4th and 10, Bollinger hit Darrin Charles with a 30-yard strike down to the Colorado 1. Bollinger snuck it in from there to tie the game and send it to overtime. In the extra frame, the Badger D pushed the Buffs back, and they missed a 45-yard field goal attempt. Mike Allen then zeroed in a 37-yard kick for the Badger win.
Carrying the rushing load for the Buffs in the 4th quarter? A kid named Brian Calhoun who totalled 16 yards on 9 carries and lost a yard on his only reception.
#8: October 11, 2003: Wisconsin 17, #3 Ohio State 10.
It was an otherwise forgettable year for the 7-6 Badger squad that lost to Auburn in the Outback Bowl, to finish losing five of their last 6, but before the collapse, for one Saturday in October, Bucky rallied for another upset of #3 Ohio State. Ohio State was the returning national champion, but after an afternoon of hard-nosed Big Ten football, Ohio Native Lee Evans took a pass from backup Quarterback Matt Schabert 80 yards for the go-ahead touchdown. Sure, it was the high water mark of an otherwise mediocre season, but it was also an Ohioan plunging the knife into a top-ranked Buckeye team.
#7: October 16, 2004: #10 Wisconsin 20, at #5 Purdue 17.
A battle of Big Ten unbeatens in West Lafayette, Wisconsin was coming off another road win over Ohio State, but the Boilermakers flashed their Heisman hopeful, Kyle Orton. Purdue took a 17-7 lead deep into the 4th quarter when John Stocco capped a 73-yard drive hitting Booker Stanley for a 7-yard score to pull within 3. Purdue took over with 5:23 remaining and started working the clock. 3rd and 2 at the Purdue 38, with 2:49 remaining. Two yards picks up a first down and all but seals the game. Even if they have to punt away, the Boilermakers can taste the win.
Purdue won every statistical category except for turnovers; the last one was the most painful.
Orton takes the snap and rolls to his right on a naked bootleg; he easily has room to pick up the first down to seal the game, and is upended by Scott Starks as he dives for the first down. Before he hits the ground, Badger safety Robert Brooks delivers a blow to the ball, swatting it loose. Starks picks it up and returns it 40 yards for the winning touchdown. This is only the second 7-0 start the Badgers have had since 1912 and the win vaults them to #6 in the country and they reach #4 -- as high a regular season ranking as I can remember -- before a catastrophic loss in East Lansing started a three-game skid to finish the year. Had the season ended better, this game would probably be higher on the list. As it is, it was a huge and thrilling Badger win.
#6: September 30, 1995, Wisconsin 17, at #6 Penn State 9.
Happy Valley is a tough place to play and in 1995 the Badgers were making their first trip to it as a Big Ten destination. Penn State was coming off of a 13-0 season in which they should've had at least a share of the National Championship (with Nebraska); the Nittany Lions hadn't lost since October 1993.
The Badgers made the trip -- and I made it along side them -- at 1-1-1, with a brutal home loss to Colorado and an unsatisfying tie at Stanford. The funny thing about road trips -- especially road trips that happened 13 years ago, is you don't tend to remember the games very well. The Badgers played inspired defense and, if I recall correctly, a 4th quarter touchdown sealed the improbable road upset. Things I remember for certain? We couldn't buy a keg in State College, and we couldn't buy beer on Sunday. Stupid blue laws, but a great win.
It was a tough year for the Badgers. The team would end up 4-5-2, a major letdown after a Rose Bowl win followed by a bowl victory in Tampa, but the win over Penn State was epic. Especially for those of us who were there.
#5: October 2, 1999, Wisconsin 42, at #12 Ohio State 17.
The Buckeyes have been there for us when we've needed them. Coming off the '98 Rose Bowl win with a top 10 preseason ranking, Barry's boys inexplicably lost to Cincinnati, then faltered, as usual, to Michigan. We were 2-2, hitting the road to Columbus, and watching things come apart in a hurry. My boss at the time, and still a good friend, was your typical non-Ohio State alum Buckeye fan. He couldn't wait to ruin my weekend with the Buckeye victory. Not thinking straight -- or remembering past upsets over the Buckeyes -- I laid a beer on the game (not being a betting man). He eagerly accepted.
I was driving north from Tennessee to Chicago that Saturday and the last report I heard was the Buckeyes had taken a 17-0 lead. The weird thing is, I didn't panic. Somehow I retained some confidence. The Badgers rewarded me by running off 42-straight, for a huge road win over a heavily favored opponent. That's all I know about the game. We won. I won a beer, and some pride. Oh, and it vaulted us back into the W column, which eventually led to a 17-9 victory over Stanford in the Rose Bowl.
#4: January 2, 2006, Wisconsin 24, #7 Auburn 10, Capital One Bowl
Near national title contender Auburn. SEC speed. Slow, plodding, boring Wisconsin, who only got into the Capital One Bowl because Ohio State got an at-large bid into the BCS. Poor Barry Alvarez. Still hadn't beaten an SEC team, and was going to go out from his career as the Badger head man a loser. Not. So. Fast.
You want to talk about speed? Brian Calhoun made the Plainsmen look silly. Brandon Williams, Jonathan Orr, and Owen Daniels couldn't be stopped. The depleted Badger front 7 (sure NFL first rounder, Junior OT Joe Thomas played two ways, playing defensive tackle due to the Badger shortages and tearing his ACL during the game) owned Auburn all afternoon. Wisconsin went into the half with a 17-0 lead.
Auburn made it interesting, reeling off 10 straight, but after their touchdown to start the 4th quarter pulled them within 7 at 17-10, John Stocco led a 5-play, 65-yard drive, culminating with a 33-yard Calhoun run to the house. On the ensuing possession, Auburn stalled at the Wisconsin 47 and punted to the Badger 1. They never touched the ball again. The Badgers ground out 98 yards over the remaining 9 minutes and took a knee at the Auburn 2 to finish a dominating 24-10 win. Barry went out appropriately: a winner.
#3: January 1, 1999, #9 Wisconsin 38, #6 UCLA 31, Rose Bowl.
"The worst team ever to play in the Rose Bowl." That was, at least according to Craig James, your 1998 Wisconsin Badgers. It was Ron Dayne's junior year. Mike Samuel was under center. Chris Chambers was an unpolished deep threat. 11-1 notwithstanding, with only a single win over a ranked team (#14 Penn State), Wisconsin wasn't supposed to be in Pasadena. But there we were. Across the field from a legitimate national title contender with Heisman hopeful Cade McKnown and playing in their home stadium. Wisconsin was a 10-point dog.
It wasn't pretty -- the defense gave up 538 yards and 31 points -- but it was enough. The Bruins had no answer for Ron Dayne, who averaged over 9 yards per carry and scored all 4 offensive touchdowns (seen here, here, here, here, and here). Late in the game, with a slight 31-28 lead, Freshman Jamar Fletcher stepped in front of DeShaun Foster on a deep route to midfield. Fletcher made the pick and followed a convoy of blockers to the house, to give the Badgers a 10-point lead with 14 minutes to play. The Badgers held on for the win. Suck it, Craig James.
#2, January 1, 1994, #9 Wisconsin 21, #13 UCLA 16, Rose Bowl
It had been 31 years since our last trip. Wisconsin had never won the Granddaddy of them all. Barry told us he could do it in 5 years, but the Badgers hadn't had a winning season since 1984. This was Barry's fourth year. We were 9-1-1. We partied on State Street when we saw the Badgers beat Sparty in Japan (a home game we gave up for the travel opportunity) after Michigan upset Ohio State (28-0, if I recall). We were going to the Rose Bowl.
I waited in line in the early morning in freezing weather under Camp Randall to get my tickets. One of my buddies got on a plane for the first time to fly out and stay with me in California and to make the 6-hour drive down to Pasadena. We saw friends there we didn't know were going. The Rose Bowl, UCLA's home, was 70% red. It was 80 degrees in Pasadena and -60 in Madison (with the windchill). That's a 140 degree difference, for those of you counting at home. It was just meant to be.
Brent Moss up the middle. You cheered when he got the ball, it didn't matter if it was stopped for no gain. You just knew it was right (158 yards and two touchdowns later, it sure was). Terrell Fletcher changed things up. Lee DeRamus was a deep threat. Joe Panos. Darell Bevell. Jeff Messenger. Ugly beauty in cardinal red.
UCLA's JJ Stokes tore off large chunks of yardage in the middle of the field setting a record for receiving yards, but just as they had all season, the Badgers' lunch-pail defense forced 6 turnovers to hold the Bruins in check.
We were up 14-3 going into the 4th quarter, but a UCLA touchdown pulled them within 4. Then Darrell Bevell rolled out and ran -- for crying out loud, he never ran! -- for a 21-yard touchdown to give us an 11-point lead. UCLA made us sweat with a final push, but the Badgers held at midfield, and the party was on. Wisconsin Badgers, Rose Bowl Champions. Unbelievable.
So what can top that?
#1: October 30, 1993, #21 Wisconsin 13, #24 Michigan 10. Wisconsin football: for real.
Is this really the top game? Better than Rose Bowl wins? Better than upsets of top 5 teams? For me it is. There we were, 6-1, heading to Camp Randall for the first real big test, just a week after a devastating loss to a terrible Minnesota in the Metrodome. We were better than we had been, but after nine years of losing records, were we much better? Big Blue would tell us. And on the night Madison would celebrate Halloween. Always a good party, that night was EPIC.
My memory of the game isn't great. I remember we scored a touchdown and all the students in my area of Camp Randall dog piled. It was amazing. When it happened it just felt like we had finally arrived. That score had been huge. I remember it was tense at the end, but we were confident. Then it ended, and "we" had done it. The Badgers were on the football map. We weren't a mediocre team beating other mediocre teams, we were good. Maybe really good. Maybe, just maybe, Rose Bowl good.
Unfortunately, either the Badger Herald or the Daily Cardinal, I don't remember which, published a big ad, or something of the sort, saying that the students should do what Michigan's Tyrone Wheatley wouldn't do: run all over Camp Randall. After the game, we tried. For one bad reason after another, that caused the Crush. 5 pulseless non-breathers (thank God they all recovered). A dorm-mate of mine from freshman year on the cover of Sports Illustrated crying out for help. We made it down to the field, but came from way over and high up in section L or so. We went around the big mass of people, without any idea what had happened. That night we knew. It seems callous now, but at the time we toasted the injured (75 of them, it turns out) and continued on with our epic party, live band, kegs draining in a hurry.
In the dog pile, my best friend lost his wallet with about $200 in cash in it. Someone turned it into the UW police, who called him on Sunday to let him know they had it. Would you believe the money was still there?
So there it is. I don't really even remember my top game, but I know it was the best. That was the day we arrived. The Alvarez Era to be. #1.
Honorable Mentions:
- 1993, 41-20 over Michigan State in Japan to put us in that first Rose Bowl
- 1997, 13-10 upset over #12 Iowa
- 1998, 24-3 over #13 Penn state to put us in the Rose Bowl against UCLA
- 1999, 41-3 shellacking of Iowa, which is always nice, plus Dayne set the NCAA D-1 rushing record
- 2000, Rose Bowl win, 17-9, over Stanford. They may actually have been the worst team ever to play in the Rose Bowl and we played down to their level. At least that's always how I've seen it.
- 2005, 38-34 at Minnesota, Casillas improbably blocks a punt in the final minute to give Barry one last victory over the Gophers and one last chance to carry the axe.
- 2007, Capital One Bowl win, 17-14, over Arkansas. Big win, but probably the worst feeling win I can remember; the second half was just brutal to watch.
Signing Day: Thoughts on Depth
Update: here is Potrykus's rundown of the new class.
And finally, Dave Heller's last minute reminder about recruiting hoopla:
"And just so you don't get too caught up in rankings, consider that in 2005, Colt McCoy was ranked the No. 15 pro-style quarterback. No. 14? Dustin Sherer."
I'm pretty cool to all the recruiting hype. I think there are only a handful of kids coming out of high school who are ready to make an immediate impact and who's stock is strictly bullish. I know the AD shares that view. On the other hand, recruiting provides depth which is the future of the program. (The balance might be different at places like Ohio State, Michigan, etc., but for programs like ours, you build the team through coaching, not recruiting.)
So, how did our 2009 recruiting class (highlight video here) shape up? A month or so ago I worried about offensive guard depth, outside linebackers, and the long term depth of our wide receiving corps. Landing Appleton in addition to Duckworth was a solid addition to help shore up the need for underclassmen wide receivers. Three scholarship linebackers and two more "preferred walkons." Not bad. Not awe inspiring.
We have a great haul of defensive lineman, which is nice. It's an area we've been too short in for the last couple of years, but as it happens, I think our depth was already ok there. I like the Budmayr pick-up at quarterback. Say what you will about Charlie Weis, he does have a track record with quarterbacks (and recruiting quarterbacks). I'm not saying he's going to be a star, but he has solid potential.
The biggest problem I see is at guard. We literally don't have a two-deep at guard right now. Nagy should be a solid starter and Zeitler was on the two-deep for the Champs Sports Bowl. After them? No one obvious. We might switch someone from tackle, but we're not all that deep at tackle, either. It seems strange, but I'm concerned about our lack of depth at guard. Only time will tell, but this recruiting class (with two potential guards) doesn't appear to do enough to address that problem.
Notes in the Off-Season
Scott Tappa at Badgercentric has a nice look at Badger running backs over the years.
A little noticed tidbit in the State Journal tells us that someone new will take over football scheduling duties. That said, Bielema and whomever the new assistant is take their direction from the AD, so don't expect to see big changes on the scheduling front. So probably little noticed for a reason.
Interesting summary of Paul Chryst's discussion of the quarterback situation with Mike Lucas and Matt lePay.










