The Journal Sentinel's blog links a nice article from the Naples News on the Badger Day (29th Annual) talk that Barry and Bret gave yesterday in Naples. The big news is Bielema announced Culmer St. Jean (a Florida product) would start at middle linebacker next season. While this is a change from McFadden, it's not a big surprise. The Badger coaching staff has been excited about St. Jean's progress for a while now and it was near a lock that he'd be in the starting lineup. McFadden will likely still play, probably on the strong side, with Sorenson on the weak side.
Some other interesting comments in the article, but I particularly liked hearing the coach and AD emphasizing academics and citizenship. The guys at Wisconsin need to be student athletes. Just this morning I was discussing with a friend what happens to all the guys who aren't playing on Sundays; it's most of them. That degree is important, and it starts with arriving prepared as a Freshman, as Bielema and Alvarez stressed.
Showing posts with label Recruiting. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Recruiting. Show all posts
More On Recruiting and Expectations
Good find by Scott Tappa over at Badgercentric on recruiting. It shouldn't come as a big surprise, but the Badgers are among the best at turning average recruits into winning football teams. We have the biggest positive spread in the Big Ten between win rankings and recruit rankings over the last four years. That's the good news (here's a link to the article he's discussing). Also worth pointing out, the three teams ahead of Wisconsin in these rankings all play in the Big East. I have a hard time viewing the Big East on the same level as any of the other BCS conferences. Maybe that's unfair, but it's how I see it.
The bad news is that "elite" teams recruit better than we do, and win more often. Here is Scout's take on recruit rankings vs. winning % and AP ranking (which I would argue is the more relevant number because it weights strength of schedule) for 2004 to 2008. Of course, I think one should really stagger the years considered for recruiting vs. ranking. How about take the AP rankings for 4 years after the recruit rankings. That way you capture the team in the recruits' 4th and 5th years. The San Diego Union Tribune did one of the better pieces on this, here. The AP's entry staggers a little, as reported on doublextrapoint (a Nebraska blog; the AP has taken the story down).This is a pretty good article from North Carolina.
Bottom line? You don't need to be a top recruiting school to have a very good program, but you probably do need to be a top recruiting school to join the college football elite.
I had the great fortune to be on campus when Barry made us matter to the football world, but I'm not one of those fans who won't be happy until we're winning national titles. I think a good bowl game with the occasional Rose Bowl is enough (don't get me wrong, I'd love a national title). Heck, that would basically put us on par with Michigan (and we tend to win those Rose Bowls!). And that's how I will rate Bielema: can he keep winning the way Barry did? So far? The jury is out. Year 1 was great, year 2 was ok, year 3 was disappointing (to say the least), but Barry had those years (and runs), too.
Again, I may be the Pollyanna in the crowd, but I'm seeing a solid season for the Cardinal and White come this fall. Our recruiting is good enough, and I haven't yet jumped the Bielema ship.
The bad news is that "elite" teams recruit better than we do, and win more often. Here is Scout's take on recruit rankings vs. winning % and AP ranking (which I would argue is the more relevant number because it weights strength of schedule) for 2004 to 2008. Of course, I think one should really stagger the years considered for recruiting vs. ranking. How about take the AP rankings for 4 years after the recruit rankings. That way you capture the team in the recruits' 4th and 5th years. The San Diego Union Tribune did one of the better pieces on this, here. The AP's entry staggers a little, as reported on doublextrapoint (a Nebraska blog; the AP has taken the story down).This is a pretty good article from North Carolina.
Bottom line? You don't need to be a top recruiting school to have a very good program, but you probably do need to be a top recruiting school to join the college football elite.
I had the great fortune to be on campus when Barry made us matter to the football world, but I'm not one of those fans who won't be happy until we're winning national titles. I think a good bowl game with the occasional Rose Bowl is enough (don't get me wrong, I'd love a national title). Heck, that would basically put us on par with Michigan (and we tend to win those Rose Bowls!). And that's how I will rate Bielema: can he keep winning the way Barry did? So far? The jury is out. Year 1 was great, year 2 was ok, year 3 was disappointing (to say the least), but Barry had those years (and runs), too.
Again, I may be the Pollyanna in the crowd, but I'm seeing a solid season for the Cardinal and White come this fall. Our recruiting is good enough, and I haven't yet jumped the Bielema ship.
Signing Day: Thoughts on Depth
There isn't a lack of signing day coverage out there, starting with UW's official page, then JSO's pretty cool interactive recruiting map, word on the surprise "win" for WR Kraig Appleton (over Illinois), the Capital Times's signing day blog, and note on QB recruit Jon Budmayr (ps Mulhern, it's "Weis" not "Weiss").
Update: here is Potrykus's rundown of the new class.
And finally, Dave Heller's last minute reminder about recruiting hoopla:
"And just so you don't get too caught up in rankings, consider that in 2005, Colt McCoy was ranked the No. 15 pro-style quarterback. No. 14? Dustin Sherer."
I'm pretty cool to all the recruiting hype. I think there are only a handful of kids coming out of high school who are ready to make an immediate impact and who's stock is strictly bullish. I know the AD shares that view. On the other hand, recruiting provides depth which is the future of the program. (The balance might be different at places like Ohio State, Michigan, etc., but for programs like ours, you build the team through coaching, not recruiting.)
So, how did our 2009 recruiting class (highlight video here) shape up? A month or so ago I worried about offensive guard depth, outside linebackers, and the long term depth of our wide receiving corps. Landing Appleton in addition to Duckworth was a solid addition to help shore up the need for underclassmen wide receivers. Three scholarship linebackers and two more "preferred walkons." Not bad. Not awe inspiring.
We have a great haul of defensive lineman, which is nice. It's an area we've been too short in for the last couple of years, but as it happens, I think our depth was already ok there. I like the Budmayr pick-up at quarterback. Say what you will about Charlie Weis, he does have a track record with quarterbacks (and recruiting quarterbacks). I'm not saying he's going to be a star, but he has solid potential.
The biggest problem I see is at guard. We literally don't have a two-deep at guard right now. Nagy should be a solid starter and Zeitler was on the two-deep for the Champs Sports Bowl. After them? No one obvious. We might switch someone from tackle, but we're not all that deep at tackle, either. It seems strange, but I'm concerned about our lack of depth at guard. Only time will tell, but this recruiting class (with two potential guards) doesn't appear to do enough to address that problem.
Update: here is Potrykus's rundown of the new class.
And finally, Dave Heller's last minute reminder about recruiting hoopla:
"And just so you don't get too caught up in rankings, consider that in 2005, Colt McCoy was ranked the No. 15 pro-style quarterback. No. 14? Dustin Sherer."
I'm pretty cool to all the recruiting hype. I think there are only a handful of kids coming out of high school who are ready to make an immediate impact and who's stock is strictly bullish. I know the AD shares that view. On the other hand, recruiting provides depth which is the future of the program. (The balance might be different at places like Ohio State, Michigan, etc., but for programs like ours, you build the team through coaching, not recruiting.)
So, how did our 2009 recruiting class (highlight video here) shape up? A month or so ago I worried about offensive guard depth, outside linebackers, and the long term depth of our wide receiving corps. Landing Appleton in addition to Duckworth was a solid addition to help shore up the need for underclassmen wide receivers. Three scholarship linebackers and two more "preferred walkons." Not bad. Not awe inspiring.
We have a great haul of defensive lineman, which is nice. It's an area we've been too short in for the last couple of years, but as it happens, I think our depth was already ok there. I like the Budmayr pick-up at quarterback. Say what you will about Charlie Weis, he does have a track record with quarterbacks (and recruiting quarterbacks). I'm not saying he's going to be a star, but he has solid potential.
The biggest problem I see is at guard. We literally don't have a two-deep at guard right now. Nagy should be a solid starter and Zeitler was on the two-deep for the Champs Sports Bowl. After them? No one obvious. We might switch someone from tackle, but we're not all that deep at tackle, either. It seems strange, but I'm concerned about our lack of depth at guard. Only time will tell, but this recruiting class (with two potential guards) doesn't appear to do enough to address that problem.
2009 Depth and Recruiting
News is we just landed a second Conor O'Neal from Florida (ok, the first is Conor "O'Neill"). O'Neal is a defensive tackle, O'Neill is a weakside linebacker. That's just weird.
I'm no recruiting guru, but I am interested in what our team will look like in 2009; that relates to the Badgers' biggest recruiting needs. Unfortunately, as I look at the 2009 class (as Scout and Rivals report it), I'm not filled with a sense of optimism. That isn't to say we aren't bringing in great kids -- I'm sure we are. The problem I see is what positions we aren't back filling.
Here are my projected depth charts, first the offense. The number corresponds to the year of eligibility the player is in (4 = senior, whether 4th or 5th year, 1 = freshman, which in this case would be redshirt, as all of these players were on the roster in 2008). An asterisk means the player was rated a 4-star recruit, and two means a 5-star (only Oglesby). After the first two players listed (except at TE down to Byrne, the WR position with Jones and halfback with Ewing), it's not even guesswork, it's more just putting the players somewhere on the list.
At quarterback I have Phillips or Scherer, and I'm handicapping Phillips to take the starting role. Jones was recruited as a linebacker, but listed as a running back last season. Given his size, and our lack of fullbacks, I'm projecting him as a fullback. That's pure guesswork. The dotted lines around the fullback position indicate that I expect to see more two tight end or three wide receiver sets based on our lack of fullbacks and our depth at TE and WR. Putting a healthy Kendricks out there with Graham has to be enticing to Chryst. Likewise, using Gilreath in the slot, with Anderson and Toon on the outside also looks pretty good (or one of the other guys, maybe a healthy Jefferson -- I have Toon as the starter over Jefferson because I wonder about Kyle's ability to play post-concussions). So, not much use of the fullback for 2009. And even with Hill leaving, tailback looks fine with Clay, then Brown, Ewing, and Smith. Preisler isn't likely to see the field in that role.
At quarterback I have Phillips or Scherer, and I'm handicapping Phillips to take the starting role. Jones was recruited as a linebacker, but listed as a running back last season. Given his size, and our lack of fullbacks, I'm projecting him as a fullback. That's pure guesswork. The dotted lines around the fullback position indicate that I expect to see more two tight end or three wide receiver sets based on our lack of fullbacks and our depth at TE and WR. Putting a healthy Kendricks out there with Graham has to be enticing to Chryst. Likewise, using Gilreath in the slot, with Anderson and Toon on the outside also looks pretty good (or one of the other guys, maybe a healthy Jefferson -- I have Toon as the starter over Jefferson because I wonder about Kyle's ability to play post-concussions). So, not much use of the fullback for 2009. And even with Hill leaving, tailback looks fine with Clay, then Brown, Ewing, and Smith. Preisler isn't likely to see the field in that role.
That's all well and good. But the hole is obvious: offensive guards. Who will be on the 2-deep? You see that OL RSF box? Offensive line, redshirt freshman. Only Garner was recruited, and at tackle. We have good tackles on the two-deep, but we aren't exactly stacked there. Garner will likely need to stay there and will probably make the 2-deep at some point in 2009 (if someone gets injured), or if not, in 2010. So, no players recruited who are in line to play guard. Current will be the go-to guy, assuming Moffitt stays healthy, but we still need another (and should have two or more). And who's on the recruiting chart for the 2009 class (in any case notoriously a difficult position to start as a true-freshman)? Ryan Croy, listed at 270. Does one of the tackle recruits switch over (both are listed a touch over 300)? One of the defensive tackles? Only the most recent O'Neal has the size and it doesn't look like he's projected anywhere but on defense. Burge and Cromwell, two players not "signed," tipped the scales just over 300 pounds last season (or so says the roster), so we should probably expect them to fill in those guard positions on the two-deep. Nonetheless, our line looks to be dangerously thin in 2009.
The less urgent concern is at wide receiver. We have a lot right now, but most are juniors and seniors, so we need to develop depth. Again, unfortunately, the 2009 recruiting class doesn't look great. We currently have one wide receiver in it (Jeff Duckworth). Next year we better bring in a bunch, or we'll be really thin in 2011.
What about the defense?
I'm surprised to see that tackle doesn't look bad at all. If Grimes, Hoey, or Konz prove worthy, we're in pretty good shape there. Likewise for defensive end (especially if Westphal lives up to his billing). After the injuries we suffered to our touted defensive line recruits over the last few years, it looks like we're finally healthy there again. We have an embarrassment of riches at corner (and a lot of those guys seem to have plenty of upside). Although I'd like to assume some of those guys might fill in at safety, they don't appear to have safety size -- at least not when they were listed on the '08 roster. Nonetheless, we're in pretty good shape at safety in the short run, with two solid players at each position, and two more previous recruits waiting in the wings (which is good, since we lose 3 or the 4 safeties on the present 2-deep for 2010). Middle linebacker looks fine, especially if Rouse turns out, but on the outside? Pretty thin. Not desperate like the offensive line, but thin.
In our present recruiting class we only have three players projected at linebacker, two on the outside. Fortunately one of them is the other Conor O'Neill, but he's pretty small to step right in and play. A.J. Fenton, one of our bigger name recruits, is closer to playing weight (but still not there). It used to be, under Alvarez, all the extra running back recruits we brought in would switch to linebacker (or at least that was the rumor, and what one of them who was my classmate told me). But we don't have a huge number of running backs around for that, and Dex Jones switched the other way last season. Everywhere else on the defense we seem to have pretty good depth spread out by class, but at linebacker, we're in need. If we don't get them this year, we need to get them in 2010.
We're still a few weeks from signing day, so we'll see . . .
Newest Badger: Josh Peprah
Although Rivals calls it a soft verbal, Scout reports Texan safety Josh Peprah is the latest to join the Badger 2009 recruiting class. A 5'11" safety, he has decent speed (reported at 4.5, for what that's worth) and is the first in the '09 class to project to the defensive backfield. He had interest from several big-time SEC teams, though according to Scout he may not have had offers from them. Neither service had yet ranked Peprah.
Why is this Texan coming North? It doesn't hurt that his brother, Charlie, wears the green and gold:
Why is this Texan coming North? It doesn't hurt that his brother, Charlie, wears the green and gold:
Weekend Update: Camp, Week 1
First things first: we matter. Badger fans. Us. We matter. Bielema commented about what a great shot of energy it is for our team in a close game when the House of Pain cranks up and the whole stadium is rocking to start the 4th quarter. So let's keep it coming, Bucky!
Saturday was the Badgers' first two-a-day, though Bielema called it a little short because he was pleased with what he saw. In the scrimmage Saturday morning, Allan Evridge led the #1 offense on a nice 80-yard scoring drive, including three 3rd down conversions. Based on Bielema's comments and his play so far this fall, Evridge has locked up the starting position. More interesting, perhaps, is Scott Tolzein looking like he may be passing Dustin Scherer for the #2 spot. When it comes to preparing for the future, that move makes a lot of sense, as it could lead to Tolzein having two years as a starter, followed by heralded true-freshman Curt Phillips taking over with two years of his own. But let's not get too ahead of ourselves on "super-recruits" just yet; more on that later.
Quarterback isn't the only position battle going on right now (and it sounds like it's not really a battle at this point). At the right corner spot, Bielema said that Langford is the guy right now, over Goins. Moreover, there's a lot of talk about sophomore Niles Brinkley making noise and pushing for playing time at corner. Don't know where that puts Goins, but I'm sure he's not done just yet. At the other backfield position that's up for grabs, no new news on the strong safety position. The smart money's still on Valai.
At middle linebacker, not only is Jaevery McFadden looking like the starter, but Elijah Hodge may not even be the next man in. Bielema said Culmer St. Jean could be #2.
The other position that's up for grabs is wide receiver. Gilreath and Jefferson (who's changed from #14 to #7) are still the probably day-1 starters, but it sounds like they are being pushed by Isaac Anderson, Maurice Moore, and Daven Jones. Nick Toon sounds like he might be a bit further back, but still showing some positive signs. Now, if you read uwbadgers.com for your news, and just watched Bielema's comments, you'd think our passing game is looking great. The good folks from the BigTen Network weren't so sure. In their wrap-up (below), they questioned whether the Badgers can play from behind, or handle second-and-longs against the quality defenses, "based on what we saw out there today." That's not so rosy. ESPN's Adam Rittenberg feels much the same way, focusing more on our receivers' hands (here, and here).
The BigTen Network was in Madison to catch-up on the Badgers' preseason.
Coach gave a pretty decent interview to the network (available on Comcast on August 15), complete with a reference to Purdue's basketball-on-grass:
There is no battle at tight end, where Travis Beckum is obviously still the man (though he's missed a couple of practices a little dinged up -- he's back for today's practices). As Badger fans know, his backup, or co-tight end when Chryst lines up with two, is Garrett Graham, who has been showing off his great hands this week. Unfortunately Mickey Turner, Graham's backup, came down badly on a shoulder and is expected to miss 1-2 weeks.
Last thing on the position front, recruitniks will be interested to hear that Jake Bscherer looks like he's still edging out 5-star wonder Josh Oglesby for the offensive line's "jumbo package." (Because, you know, they aren't big enough already, averaging 319 pounds up front.) It's interesting to see how much people expect Oglesby and Clay to contribute (and to a lesser extent Phillips at QB) because of their recruit rankings. College ball is a lot different than high school ball. More than just size and inherent ability, there is a lot more thinking and studying of the game going on. A wide receiver who can make a spectacular grab may still sit if he can't make a downfield block. A running back who hits the hole hard and fast will sit if he can't read and pick-up the linebacker blitz. That's not to say those three guys won't be great players, but just because they were freaks of nature in high school doesn't mean they will supplant proven contributers at Camp Randall.
As a wrap-up, here is the video of some of our players answering questions on Saturday. I found Casillas (last in the que) the most interesting as he says candidly about the defense, "last year we needed to play safe a lot," because "we weren't that good."
Here are coach Bielema's comments to the media from Friday and Saturday. Finally, here are the "plays of the week" from last week, according to the athletic department. Hmm. Not all that spectacular, really; mostly practice footage. Chris Pressley is a beast (towards the end).
One last thing from the weekend: big thanks to the good people over at the Journal Sentinel who not only do a great job covering the Badgers (I think that's Potrykus's bald head in the Friday video of Bielema after practice), but also saw fit to link this blog among their Badger fan cites. Many thanks!!
Saturday was the Badgers' first two-a-day, though Bielema called it a little short because he was pleased with what he saw. In the scrimmage Saturday morning, Allan Evridge led the #1 offense on a nice 80-yard scoring drive, including three 3rd down conversions. Based on Bielema's comments and his play so far this fall, Evridge has locked up the starting position. More interesting, perhaps, is Scott Tolzein looking like he may be passing Dustin Scherer for the #2 spot. When it comes to preparing for the future, that move makes a lot of sense, as it could lead to Tolzein having two years as a starter, followed by heralded true-freshman Curt Phillips taking over with two years of his own. But let's not get too ahead of ourselves on "super-recruits" just yet; more on that later.
Quarterback isn't the only position battle going on right now (and it sounds like it's not really a battle at this point). At the right corner spot, Bielema said that Langford is the guy right now, over Goins. Moreover, there's a lot of talk about sophomore Niles Brinkley making noise and pushing for playing time at corner. Don't know where that puts Goins, but I'm sure he's not done just yet. At the other backfield position that's up for grabs, no new news on the strong safety position. The smart money's still on Valai.
At middle linebacker, not only is Jaevery McFadden looking like the starter, but Elijah Hodge may not even be the next man in. Bielema said Culmer St. Jean could be #2.
The other position that's up for grabs is wide receiver. Gilreath and Jefferson (who's changed from #14 to #7) are still the probably day-1 starters, but it sounds like they are being pushed by Isaac Anderson, Maurice Moore, and Daven Jones. Nick Toon sounds like he might be a bit further back, but still showing some positive signs. Now, if you read uwbadgers.com for your news, and just watched Bielema's comments, you'd think our passing game is looking great. The good folks from the BigTen Network weren't so sure. In their wrap-up (below), they questioned whether the Badgers can play from behind, or handle second-and-longs against the quality defenses, "based on what we saw out there today." That's not so rosy. ESPN's Adam Rittenberg feels much the same way, focusing more on our receivers' hands (here, and here).
The BigTen Network was in Madison to catch-up on the Badgers' preseason.
Here is their wrap. The first three minutes is a "behind the scenes" video with PJ Hill, but the substance comes later. They see the Badgers using Brown and Clay much more to lessen the impact on Hill's body as the season wears on, though Hill is still the #1 guy. No surprise there. I think everyone expects that. They mused about whether Clay is "the best player." More on super recruits?
BTN's key to the running game (against the likes of Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State)? The passing game: at least having to defend the pass on 1st down. That sounds about right. Oh, and a fantastic front 5. As above, the BTN doesn't seem to think much of Evridge. Hmm.
Coach gave a pretty decent interview to the network (available on Comcast on August 15), complete with a reference to Purdue's basketball-on-grass:
There is no battle at tight end, where Travis Beckum is obviously still the man (though he's missed a couple of practices a little dinged up -- he's back for today's practices). As Badger fans know, his backup, or co-tight end when Chryst lines up with two, is Garrett Graham, who has been showing off his great hands this week. Unfortunately Mickey Turner, Graham's backup, came down badly on a shoulder and is expected to miss 1-2 weeks.
Last thing on the position front, recruitniks will be interested to hear that Jake Bscherer looks like he's still edging out 5-star wonder Josh Oglesby for the offensive line's "jumbo package." (Because, you know, they aren't big enough already, averaging 319 pounds up front.) It's interesting to see how much people expect Oglesby and Clay to contribute (and to a lesser extent Phillips at QB) because of their recruit rankings. College ball is a lot different than high school ball. More than just size and inherent ability, there is a lot more thinking and studying of the game going on. A wide receiver who can make a spectacular grab may still sit if he can't make a downfield block. A running back who hits the hole hard and fast will sit if he can't read and pick-up the linebacker blitz. That's not to say those three guys won't be great players, but just because they were freaks of nature in high school doesn't mean they will supplant proven contributers at Camp Randall.
As a wrap-up, here is the video of some of our players answering questions on Saturday. I found Casillas (last in the que) the most interesting as he says candidly about the defense, "last year we needed to play safe a lot," because "we weren't that good."
Here are coach Bielema's comments to the media from Friday and Saturday. Finally, here are the "plays of the week" from last week, according to the athletic department. Hmm. Not all that spectacular, really; mostly practice footage. Chris Pressley is a beast (towards the end).
One last thing from the weekend: big thanks to the good people over at the Journal Sentinel who not only do a great job covering the Badgers (I think that's Potrykus's bald head in the Friday video of Bielema after practice), but also saw fit to link this blog among their Badger fan cites. Many thanks!!
Ohio Recruiting Pipeline: Open
Rivals and the Journal Sentinel are reporting the Badgers picked up their 11th recruit for the '09 class, getting a verbal from Jeff Duckworth of Cincinnati, OH (Scout: 2*, Rivals: NR, ESPN: NR). Duckworth is a 6' 195 lb. wide receiver who is reported to run a 4.5 40.
I'm not really a recruiting junky, but we've gotten some great wide receiver talent from Ohio before, including no less than Chris Chambers and Lee Evans. Current Badgers from the Buckeye state include Lance Smith, Shane Carter, Prince Moody and wide receivers Kyle Jefferson, Isaac Anderson, and Daven Jones. With Ohio State basically full on recruits (around 24, if I'm not mistaken), we could see more Buckeyes become Bucky's. Bielema and his staff beat out Indiana, and to a lesser extent Michigan State and Illinois for Duckworth.
Here's his recruiting video from Rivals (which all look practically the same to me).
Here's hoping he can live up to the reputation of those who preceeded him:
I'm not really a recruiting junky, but we've gotten some great wide receiver talent from Ohio before, including no less than Chris Chambers and Lee Evans. Current Badgers from the Buckeye state include Lance Smith, Shane Carter, Prince Moody and wide receivers Kyle Jefferson, Isaac Anderson, and Daven Jones. With Ohio State basically full on recruits (around 24, if I'm not mistaken), we could see more Buckeyes become Bucky's. Bielema and his staff beat out Indiana, and to a lesser extent Michigan State and Illinois for Duckworth.
Here's his recruiting video from Rivals (which all look practically the same to me).
Here's hoping he can live up to the reputation of those who preceeded him:
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