Tolzien is the starter. Good news.
I don't have anything against Phillips, but it seems like fans get all amped about him more because of his recruit rankings than anything else. Yes, it's nice that he can run. That's a bonus. But in Chryst's offense delivering the ball on time is more important . . . much more important. So I was wrong about Sherer (outspokenly wrong; put me in my place wrong). But the bigger picture for me remains the same: our quarterback needs to be able to deliver the ball reliably.
When Phillips is described as "erratic" during good times (and throws four picks in eleven attempts during bad), that's not a good sign. Will he improve? Of course he will. But for now, Chryst needs a guy who can deliver the ball and with the player makers we have on the receiving end, Graham, Toon, Kendricks, Anderson, Gilreath, Appleton, etc., it's that much more important that we use them.
Showing posts with label depth chart. Show all posts
Showing posts with label depth chart. Show all posts
Depth . . . "Or"
A few minutes early, and a few minor surprises. At quarterback Tolzien is listed first with an "or" Phillips. I think that means Tolzien will get the bulk, with Phillips in for particular packages (because of his running ability). I don't like it. Two-headed quarterbacks are no-headed quarterbacks.
Brown is listed first at tailback, but with an "or" Clay. Again, that reflects what I would expect, about a 60/40 split in the snaps.
Two surprises on offense: Mo Moore is listed as second string WR, rather than Kyle Jefferson. That's a good sign for Moore and a bad one for Jefferson. As expected, Gilreath is a #2, the starters are Anderson and Toon. The other surprise (mild) is redshirt freshman Kevin Zeitler ahead of Bill Nagy at right guard. However, this might just be more of a reflection of Nagy's lack of practice time due to injury (he still hasn't gone full speed/contact). I suspect Nagy will win that spot back as he gets fully healthy.
Two tight ends are listed as starters (and while they include a fullback depth, that's more for show than anything else; don't expect much traditional fullback action in Madison this year). The tight ends are listed as Graham or Kendricks and Kendricks or Turner.
On defense some mild shakeups: as expected the ends are Schofield and Watt. The tackles are Stehle and Moore "or" Butrym. Moore is considered more of a natural end, but is needed inside. I suspect that "or" decision will be made based more on the team the Badgers face.
Linebacker is where the real surprise is. McFadden is, as expected, one OLB. However, the other is redshirt freshman Mike Taylor over Blake Sorensen, who isn't even on the depth chart at OLB (true freshman Chris Borland is #2 behind Taylor), however, Culmer St. Jean is listed first at MLB with another "or" . . . Blake Sorensen. It's no surprise to me that Sorensen doesn't have the speed to play outside, but I wasn't aware that he put such a push on at MLB. Still, I expect to see St. Jean a lot more.
The safeties, as expected are Valai and Maragos, with freshmen backing them up. The corners are Henry and Devin Smith (who unseated Niles Brinkley), with Brinkley and true-freshman Dez Southward listed as "or" backups to Smith. Expect Southward to see the field as a nickel back pretty often. The coaches are pretty excited about him.
No surprise amont the kickers, Nortman and Welch, but the returners are Gilreath for punts (with Fenelus and Henry -- that last one's a surprise -- listed as "or" backups), and for kickoffs it's Gilreath and Fenelus.
Brown is listed first at tailback, but with an "or" Clay. Again, that reflects what I would expect, about a 60/40 split in the snaps.
Two surprises on offense: Mo Moore is listed as second string WR, rather than Kyle Jefferson. That's a good sign for Moore and a bad one for Jefferson. As expected, Gilreath is a #2, the starters are Anderson and Toon. The other surprise (mild) is redshirt freshman Kevin Zeitler ahead of Bill Nagy at right guard. However, this might just be more of a reflection of Nagy's lack of practice time due to injury (he still hasn't gone full speed/contact). I suspect Nagy will win that spot back as he gets fully healthy.
Two tight ends are listed as starters (and while they include a fullback depth, that's more for show than anything else; don't expect much traditional fullback action in Madison this year). The tight ends are listed as Graham or Kendricks and Kendricks or Turner.
On defense some mild shakeups: as expected the ends are Schofield and Watt. The tackles are Stehle and Moore "or" Butrym. Moore is considered more of a natural end, but is needed inside. I suspect that "or" decision will be made based more on the team the Badgers face.
Linebacker is where the real surprise is. McFadden is, as expected, one OLB. However, the other is redshirt freshman Mike Taylor over Blake Sorensen, who isn't even on the depth chart at OLB (true freshman Chris Borland is #2 behind Taylor), however, Culmer St. Jean is listed first at MLB with another "or" . . . Blake Sorensen. It's no surprise to me that Sorensen doesn't have the speed to play outside, but I wasn't aware that he put such a push on at MLB. Still, I expect to see St. Jean a lot more.
The safeties, as expected are Valai and Maragos, with freshmen backing them up. The corners are Henry and Devin Smith (who unseated Niles Brinkley), with Brinkley and true-freshman Dez Southward listed as "or" backups to Smith. Expect Southward to see the field as a nickel back pretty often. The coaches are pretty excited about him.
No surprise amont the kickers, Nortman and Welch, but the returners are Gilreath for punts (with Fenelus and Henry -- that last one's a surprise -- listed as "or" backups), and for kickoffs it's Gilreath and Fenelus.
Depth Chart: Offense
Ok, so I couldn't wait. Here's how I see the offense, sans quarterback:
And here's what I said about it over on the Bleacher Report.
Anticipation and the Depth Chart
Man, the anticipation of tomorrow's depth chart release is near killing me. Phillips? Tolzien? Sherer? For the record, I think it will be Phillips, but I'm not sure I read Bielema's comments about Sherer the same way the media has. I think what Bielema said is that they know what they have with Sherer, so they needed to give more reps to Phillips and Tolzien to make sure they know what they have with them. While I think the smart money's on Phillips, it still won't surprise me to see Sherer as the #1.
Brown over Clay? Taylor over Sorenson? Anderson over Gilreath? Smith over Brinkley? Who are the starting DTs? How does the offensive line shake out with all of the injuries?
Lots of good stuff due in tomorrow. And practically no new news today, which makes it tougher.
On an unrelated note, I've taken to penning some stuff for the Badgers page at the Bleacher Report. The first was a revised version of what I posted here the other day on quarterback potential, the second was a missive on my current worries about the defense, here.
Brown over Clay? Taylor over Sorenson? Anderson over Gilreath? Smith over Brinkley? Who are the starting DTs? How does the offensive line shake out with all of the injuries?
Lots of good stuff due in tomorrow. And practically no new news today, which makes it tougher.
On an unrelated note, I've taken to penning some stuff for the Badgers page at the Bleacher Report. The first was a revised version of what I posted here the other day on quarterback potential, the second was a missive on my current worries about the defense, here.
The Problem With Potential
The Badgers have a big decision to make (again) at quarterback. It's no secret that Chryst and Bielema have said if the competition is close this fall, they will go with the guy with more upside -- the younger guy who will have more time to develop. That's a not-so-subtle nod to Curt Phillips.
Indeed, every report out of practice this week indicates Phillips is the guy (Adam Hoge says Phillips took over 60% of the snaps yesterday). Jeff Potrykus (Milwaukee Journal Sentinel) hedged and said maybe the staff knows what Sherer brings to the table, and they are just trying to evaluate where the other guys are. Maybe. Probably not (the coaches provided all the clues needed to connect the dots prior to the Donovan and Evridge decisions, I have to assume the same is true this year).
According to those practice reports, while Dustin Sherer still makes bad decisions, Phillips is still "erratic" and also throws picks (to quote Potrykus this week: "Phillips still isn't a polished passer. Nevertheless, more often than not the ball arrives on time and in a place that allows the receiver to make a play." [In a different article] "However, [Phillips'] throwing was erratic."). Based on these reviews, it sounds as though the coaches are implementing the above theory: if it's close, go with the guy still developing. So here we go.
Generally I don't disagree with the theory: Phillips will continue getting better, so let's go with him rather than someone who's likely already peaked (or near it). The problem comes when we're in a tight game -- maybe down a score -- and Phillips has been playing badly: throwing incompletions and picks, trying to do too much with his feet while our best receivers in 5 or more years languish unused. Do you put someone else in?
With all the talk about Scott Tolzein being a safe #2, wouldn't you rather have the guy who has the bigger arm and the potential for bigger plays lead you back (not to mention 7 career starts): you know, like the strikes to David Gilreath in last year's Illinois game and Isaac Anderson in the Minnesota game? Do the Badgers then effectively end up with a two-quarterback system? That dog don't hunt.Last season when Bielema addressed the quarterback derby he talked about the obligation to go with the guy who gives the best chance of winning today, not next year. If Chryst and Bielema have in the back of their heads that maybe Sherer is really that guy, and not Phillips, will they be too quick to give Phillips the hook? We can't have that.
Now, I've been a Sherer proponent, but the chorus is pretty loud that he hasn't made the strides the Badgers need him to. Assuming that's the case (and the coaches and folks attending practice know better than me), then it's time for someone else.The coaches are at the practices and want to win even more than I do. I trust they will make the right decision on the quarterback. But that doesn't mean I'm not nervous about it. I think it's next Wednesday that the starter is announced.
Whomever we go with, it's got to be concrete. Period. Can you give a guy the hook if he's awful (see Evridge vs. Penn State)? Yes, but if they have any doubts about their decision it will end badly.
Pick someone and stick with him.
Indeed, every report out of practice this week indicates Phillips is the guy (Adam Hoge says Phillips took over 60% of the snaps yesterday). Jeff Potrykus (Milwaukee Journal Sentinel) hedged and said maybe the staff knows what Sherer brings to the table, and they are just trying to evaluate where the other guys are. Maybe. Probably not (the coaches provided all the clues needed to connect the dots prior to the Donovan and Evridge decisions, I have to assume the same is true this year).
According to those practice reports, while Dustin Sherer still makes bad decisions, Phillips is still "erratic" and also throws picks (to quote Potrykus this week: "Phillips still isn't a polished passer. Nevertheless, more often than not the ball arrives on time and in a place that allows the receiver to make a play." [In a different article] "However, [Phillips'] throwing was erratic."). Based on these reviews, it sounds as though the coaches are implementing the above theory: if it's close, go with the guy still developing. So here we go.
Generally I don't disagree with the theory: Phillips will continue getting better, so let's go with him rather than someone who's likely already peaked (or near it). The problem comes when we're in a tight game -- maybe down a score -- and Phillips has been playing badly: throwing incompletions and picks, trying to do too much with his feet while our best receivers in 5 or more years languish unused. Do you put someone else in?
With all the talk about Scott Tolzein being a safe #2, wouldn't you rather have the guy who has the bigger arm and the potential for bigger plays lead you back (not to mention 7 career starts): you know, like the strikes to David Gilreath in last year's Illinois game and Isaac Anderson in the Minnesota game? Do the Badgers then effectively end up with a two-quarterback system? That dog don't hunt.Last season when Bielema addressed the quarterback derby he talked about the obligation to go with the guy who gives the best chance of winning today, not next year. If Chryst and Bielema have in the back of their heads that maybe Sherer is really that guy, and not Phillips, will they be too quick to give Phillips the hook? We can't have that.
Now, I've been a Sherer proponent, but the chorus is pretty loud that he hasn't made the strides the Badgers need him to. Assuming that's the case (and the coaches and folks attending practice know better than me), then it's time for someone else.The coaches are at the practices and want to win even more than I do. I trust they will make the right decision on the quarterback. But that doesn't mean I'm not nervous about it. I think it's next Wednesday that the starter is announced.
Whomever we go with, it's got to be concrete. Period. Can you give a guy the hook if he's awful (see Evridge vs. Penn State)? Yes, but if they have any doubts about their decision it will end badly.
Pick someone and stick with him.
Time to Cue Up the Imperial March?
Covered better than me elsewhere, Moffit is hurt. Pulled a chest muscle while lifting. Supposedly not too badly, though from the sound of things, they were plenty worried when it happened. May not be ready for the opener.
Likewise, Bill Nagy has a bad wrist and will miss the first week or so of camp.
Now, as it happens, I'm not too worried about either of these guys, as long as they get healthy in time. But if they don't? Bad news.
Our depth on the offensive line is brutal, especially at the guard and center positions. We need Moffit and Nagy healthy. Hopefully this isn't a sign of things to come . . .
And Westphal is hurt, too. We need him healthy to provide competition on the two-deep at DE.
On the departures: WR Daven Jones, who always seemed like he had a little spark in him, but never seemed to crack into the depth chart, has decided to transfer. While I'm generally not a fan of transferring because of perceived worries about depth (that's always a fluid situation), he really was buried behind Anderson, Toon, Gilreath, Jefferson, then Theus, plus the anticipated often-used 2-tight end set, and with the new infusion of Appleton and Duckworth, things weren't getting any brighter for Daven's chances on the playing field. On the other hand, that UW degree would have been nice . . .
I'm a little more disappointed in Dex Jones leaving. While he may have projected 3rd among the fullbacks, that was almost certainly fluid. Without any true fullbacks right now, and as much as Chryst seems to like them, if anyone asked me I would have recommended sticking around and seeing how things went. Especially with as much eligibility (4 years, I think -- at least three) he has remaining.
And the recruit? Meh. Best of luck to him at K-State.
Likewise, Bill Nagy has a bad wrist and will miss the first week or so of camp.
Now, as it happens, I'm not too worried about either of these guys, as long as they get healthy in time. But if they don't? Bad news.
Our depth on the offensive line is brutal, especially at the guard and center positions. We need Moffit and Nagy healthy. Hopefully this isn't a sign of things to come . . .
And Westphal is hurt, too. We need him healthy to provide competition on the two-deep at DE.
On the departures: WR Daven Jones, who always seemed like he had a little spark in him, but never seemed to crack into the depth chart, has decided to transfer. While I'm generally not a fan of transferring because of perceived worries about depth (that's always a fluid situation), he really was buried behind Anderson, Toon, Gilreath, Jefferson, then Theus, plus the anticipated often-used 2-tight end set, and with the new infusion of Appleton and Duckworth, things weren't getting any brighter for Daven's chances on the playing field. On the other hand, that UW degree would have been nice . . .
I'm a little more disappointed in Dex Jones leaving. While he may have projected 3rd among the fullbacks, that was almost certainly fluid. Without any true fullbacks right now, and as much as Chryst seems to like them, if anyone asked me I would have recommended sticking around and seeing how things went. Especially with as much eligibility (4 years, I think -- at least three) he has remaining.
And the recruit? Meh. Best of luck to him at K-State.
If You Can't Beat 'Em . . .
Since Bielema (and probably most coaches, AD's, etc.) dislikes bloggers so much, it looks like the athletic department is trying to get into the act. This is an aggregator of sorts: linking to stories about the Badgers around the web. No links to any true bloggers yet, though. At minimum I'd vote for BadgerCentric and Bucky's 5th Quarter (ok, and me, too) for football coverage, but I won't hold my breath.
Also, UW opened a Fall Camp headquarters page. It includes the 2009 Fact Book (more or less a media guide -- there's generally a lot of good stuff in these), the present roster, and the current depth chart. Note: starting wide receivers are Isaac Anderson and Gilreath or Toon (I'm betting on Toon); strong safety is listed as Valai or Pleasant; and while Henry has one corner, the other is listed as Brinkley or Devin Smith.
Also, UW opened a Fall Camp headquarters page. It includes the 2009 Fact Book (more or less a media guide -- there's generally a lot of good stuff in these), the present roster, and the current depth chart. Note: starting wide receivers are Isaac Anderson and Gilreath or Toon (I'm betting on Toon); strong safety is listed as Valai or Pleasant; and while Henry has one corner, the other is listed as Brinkley or Devin Smith.
Badger Blogger Roundtable: 2009 Defense
After discussing the offense, we Badger bloggers turned to the near blank slate that is our defense. What to make of all the new faces? Adam Hoge of Bucky's 5th Quarter led the charge, with Scott Tappa of BadgerCentric, Phil Mitten of Hoops Marinara, and me contributing our views as well:
Can you believe it has been five years since that great defensive line of 2004? Depth is once again an issue this year, but there seems to be some promise in J.J. Watt among others. Do you see any newcomers stepping up on the D-line to provide some depth?
On Wisconsin: Yeah, 5 years since Anttaj and Erasmus, but harder to believe for me is that Chapman and Shaughnessy never became true beasts on the line. They had so much promise early. Schofield is solid (led the team in sacks last season) and everyone is excited about Watt, but it's all based on practice so far. I want to believe in him, but I'm a little nervous. I'm concerned about our size everywhere and Moore really should be an end (where he would probably be very good), but we should have speed on the edges. I don't know who the solid tackles-to-be are, but with Nzegwu, Mains, and Westphal, there is plenty of young talent ready to step up on the ends. We'll need it.
Badger Centric: It's funny, because when you mentioned 2004, the first thing I thought was "I thought 2005 would be a down year, and we ended up winning 10 games, great year." But that was in spite of the defensive line! Even so, while injuries killed that unit (remember Beckum playing end?), but guys like Shaughnessy, Hayden, and Chapman showed promise. I don't see those guys on this unit. O'Brien is a solid starter. Watt seems to have a Hayden-like ceiling. But are there difference-makers? Doesn't look like it. I'll be happy if these guys can keep offensive linemen off our linebackers.
Hoops Marinara: It's a shame Erasmus and Co. flamed out in the NFL. Maybe they weren't that great after all. In 2009, the Badgers look weak up the middle and that spells trouble. I like O'Brien Schofield, who seems like he should be the emotional leader on the unit. Again, I like the younger guys UW has backing up the end positions, but inside is a question mark.
Bucky’s 5th Quarter: You have to be careful from what comes out of Camp Randall in the off-season because a lot of it can be propaganda. But I must say I am a little more optimistic about the defensive line than I was in the spring. After talking with O’Brien Schofield, I must say he seems like a solid leader and he’s determined to have a good year. If J.J. Watt blossoms like he is supposed to, I think Brendan Kelly and Louis Nzegwu do enough to make this a solid line.
Speaking of a lack of depth, the linebacking corp. seems to be scrambling to replace Jonathan Casillas and DeAndre Levy. Blake Sorensen didn't have a great spring, but he is still listed ahead of Mike Taylor on the depth chart. Are you worried about the linebackers?
Badger Centric: Yes, very. Don't want to join the chorus questioning Sorenson, but I've never seen it with him. Saw Taylor play in high school and he was a stud, but we certainly can't count on him to be a standout this year. McFadden and St. Jean are average at best. And there is no one else. What about playing Pleasant at linebacker? We see so much spread it might make sense to have a guy like that in the front seven.
Hoops Marinara: Sorensen certainly has a lot of expectations to fulfill, but I think along with Culmer St. Jean and J. McFadden they can form a decent group. No one will accuse them of being as athletic as last year's group -- Casillas and Levy were two of the best athletes at that position that Wisconsin has seen. But what the Badgers really need is simply a group that knows how to tackle well. I don't want every draw play that gets past the line going for 6 ... can we get another Donnel Thompson in this bunch, please?!
Bucky’s 5th Quarter: I’m excited about McFadden in the middle, but very worried about the other two spots. Culmer St. Jean has never really put it all together and Sorensen didn’t exactly take advantage of his opportunities in the spring. It should be interesting to see what Mike Taylor can do. If he has a good camp, this will be the most fun defensive position battle over the next month.
On Wisconsin: I think the linebackers are the scariest group. First, Sorenson looked S-L-O-W in the spring. I'm pulling for Taylor if only because Sorenson either isn't fast enough or didn't care enough to try harder. I think St. Jean played pretty well when he had his chances last season, so we have two solid starters, but who's backing them up? That's where the loss of Hodge as a solid, contributing second-stringer really hurt. We've heard some positives about Megna, Rouse, and Hubbard, but we haven't seen it yet. Bottom line: I'm worried. Really worried.
Is it safe to say (and a little scary to say) that the secondary is the strength of the Badger defense? It seems like every guy listed on two-deep has shown flashes of brilliance at some point in the last few seasons, but they also have had their hardships. And will Aaron Henry really be as good as he looked like he would be before the knee injury?
Hoops Marinara: There's no question that the secondary looks good by comparison. But I think they actually will be good. Henry should be ready to go -- he's one of the elite talents on the team. I'm really excited to see him grow up. The entire makeup of the secondary is intriguing. You have knock-out artist in Valai, an overachiever in Maragos, plus a lot of experience backing those safeties up (Carter and Pleasant). Niles Brinkley is probably the weak link.
Badger Centric: It is scary, and I'd even question the "flashes of brilliance" assertion. We've seen flashes of competence from these guys, and I'd settled for sustained competence. But every one of the starters has question marks: Henry with the knee, Maragos still learning the position, Valai and his pure hitter MO, and Brinkley giving up big plays. But I'm actually optimistic about these guys and the young guys too. Shane Carter is a wild card, if he could come in and force some turnovers that would be huge.
Bucky’s 5th Quarter: Remember when Shane Carter led the Big Ten in interceptions two years ago? And Niles Brinkley picked off four passes last season? Why don’t I remember all of this? Oh, because when they weren’t grabbing turnovers they were getting beat for touchdowns and committing crucial penalties. Every member of the starting secondary has a good amount of experience, but how much talent do they have? We’ll find out soon.
On Wisconsin: I think they are a strength, but that's relative to the near total unknown of the front 7. Especially at safety, I worry about making that critical tackle. As much as Valai can lay the wood (needs to watch the head-to-head stuff, though), he missed his fair share of tackles last season. That's been Carter's problem all along, which is why Maragos will probably start at free safety. At corner Henry will be fine. I'm glad they decided to keep him out all of last season to truly let him heal. Niles Brinkley played fine last season, and I'm hoping Fenelus and Smith are coming along as well as advertised. But hope is not a method.
What are your thoughts on the defensive coaching staff? Toughness seemed to be an issue at times last season. How will this unit overcome the mental and physical shortcomings that were apparent in 2008?
Bucky’s 5th Quarter: The good news is that fixing these problems was item No. 1 in the off-season. Improving the defense’s mental and physical toughness – and committing fewer mistakes – will give this team an extra win or two this season. And if the problems continue then it will be a major problem for the defensive coaching staff.
On Wisconsin: Bottom line is the heat should be squarely on Doeren. After what Hankwitz did to turn around the Northwestern defense, Bielema's choice to go with Dave over Mike hasn't looked so hot. Maybe it was just breaking everything in the first year with guys who were more used to Hankwitz's way of doing things? That's no excuse this year. On top of making tackles, the defense needs to improve its conditioning. The losses to Michigan, Ohio State, and Michigan State all lay at the defense's tired feet (Bielema's too, of course). The idea that a Barry Alvarez legacy team (as long as he's the AD, he's a part of it) could be 9th in scoring defense in the Big Ten is unfathomable. That can't happen again.
Badger Centric: I don't know about toughness, it's hard to get to be a guy who plays a lot on a Big Ten defense and not be at least somewhat tough. Remember, there were a lot of injuries on that side of the ball last year: Casillas, Levy, Chapman, Henry, and that hurt productivity. What sticks with me are comments made on my blog after the Iowa game. I forget who said it, but the point was made that our defense had finally adapted to deal with the Spread, but when we go against a power line and back like Iowa had, we get run over. That probably won't always happen, but there's a lot of truth there. So by making the seemingly necessary adaptation to deal with the Spread, we have lost our identity as being a stout, stop-the-run defense, and become just another defense with a bunch of undersized guys running around in space. If these undersized guys were racking up sacks and interceptions, that would be one thing, but the unit seems mediocre at best, and it's not like next year looks any more promising. Some of that's on X's and O's coaching, but it's also recruiting and player development.
Hoops Marinara: It starts at the top with BB. I can't stress enough how much I want the coach to relinquish the Special Teams duties. He needs to set the example being focused and knowing where to be at all times. The good news is if the secondary can be everything I want it to be, that makes the job of pressuring the QB a little easier. I think the offense can be better this year too, which should (hopefully) alleviate the problems the defense had being worn out all the time in tight games.
On Leadership
What is leadership, and how does it work for a football team? A flurry of articles over at the Journal Sentinel yesterday and today got me thinking . . .
Writers, coaches, players, and fans often talk about the number of returning seniors and how that translates to leadership. It translates to experience, certainly, but I'm less sure on the leadership side of things. There's a difference between depth and leadership.
I think too many seniors actually limits their leadership potential. Instead of having a handful of guys that everyone else looks to, you get a big group of guys who are all buddies who are distinct from the rest of the team. Instead of having that one guy that everyone looks to, the younger guys are probably turned away from the group of senior guys that all huddle together.
I don't mean to say this is an intentional thing, but I suspect it happens. Think about the Badger teams over the last few years. In 2006 we had a great season with few seniors on either side of the ball. But you can bet on offense there was no question who was in charge: Joe Thomas and John Stocco. And on Defense? Mark Zalewski and Joe Stellmacher. They were in charge. No question. And that's what you need from leaders: leadership.
Last season, who was in charge? It wasn't the quarterbacks. PJ Hill, Travis Beckum, Kemp, Urbik, Vanden Huevel, Pressley, Rentmeester?
And on defense? Casillas, Levy, Chapman, Shaughnessy, Newkirk, Langford?
These guys probably had good chemistry between them, but not as much with the other classes. And as the switch in leadership from '07 to '08 shows (Casillas to Levy, for instance), there probably (a) wasn't good leadership amongst them (was Casillas going to lead Levy when we really needed that extra effort late in the 4th, or the other way around?), and likely they hung out in groups where the younger guys were discouraged (not actively, but implicitly) from approaching them.
I can imagine the three offensive lineman all hanging out (heck, UW even gave us a video of them chatting with Bielema). Did Moffitt or Oglesby feel like they could just stroll up and look for guidance? Did they know who was really in charge? Likewise with the defensive line: did Schofield, Nzegwu, or Mains feel like one of the crew or know where to turn to find the boss? In the linebacking corps, it was more of the same.
Sometimes I wonder if the departure of all those seniors (as at the end of 2005) actually helps with the new team because it provides opportunity for real leadership and breaks down likely cliques of guys who have played together since they came in and who look at the younger guys as being part of a different clique.
Someone asked me the other day if I'm a 1/2 full or 1/2 empy kind of a guy: I said 3/4 full. Maybe I'm just clutching at straws looking for reasons to elevate my expectations for what could be a rough year. Or maybe I'm on to something.
Look for guys like Garrett Graham, Gabe Carimi, O'Brien Schofield, and Jaevery McFadden to really take the reigns. They will lead, others will follow. Teams need leaders, not cliques.
I think we'll see true leaders this season (though I won't go so far as to suggest they will be as good at leading as that 2006 group). I won't be at all surprised to see this group acting more like a team than last year's.
Too many seniors may actually be a bad thing.
Writers, coaches, players, and fans often talk about the number of returning seniors and how that translates to leadership. It translates to experience, certainly, but I'm less sure on the leadership side of things. There's a difference between depth and leadership.
I think too many seniors actually limits their leadership potential. Instead of having a handful of guys that everyone else looks to, you get a big group of guys who are all buddies who are distinct from the rest of the team. Instead of having that one guy that everyone looks to, the younger guys are probably turned away from the group of senior guys that all huddle together.
I don't mean to say this is an intentional thing, but I suspect it happens. Think about the Badger teams over the last few years. In 2006 we had a great season with few seniors on either side of the ball. But you can bet on offense there was no question who was in charge: Joe Thomas and John Stocco. And on Defense? Mark Zalewski and Joe Stellmacher. They were in charge. No question. And that's what you need from leaders: leadership.
Last season, who was in charge? It wasn't the quarterbacks. PJ Hill, Travis Beckum, Kemp, Urbik, Vanden Huevel, Pressley, Rentmeester?
And on defense? Casillas, Levy, Chapman, Shaughnessy, Newkirk, Langford?
These guys probably had good chemistry between them, but not as much with the other classes. And as the switch in leadership from '07 to '08 shows (Casillas to Levy, for instance), there probably (a) wasn't good leadership amongst them (was Casillas going to lead Levy when we really needed that extra effort late in the 4th, or the other way around?), and likely they hung out in groups where the younger guys were discouraged (not actively, but implicitly) from approaching them.
I can imagine the three offensive lineman all hanging out (heck, UW even gave us a video of them chatting with Bielema). Did Moffitt or Oglesby feel like they could just stroll up and look for guidance? Did they know who was really in charge? Likewise with the defensive line: did Schofield, Nzegwu, or Mains feel like one of the crew or know where to turn to find the boss? In the linebacking corps, it was more of the same.
Sometimes I wonder if the departure of all those seniors (as at the end of 2005) actually helps with the new team because it provides opportunity for real leadership and breaks down likely cliques of guys who have played together since they came in and who look at the younger guys as being part of a different clique.
Someone asked me the other day if I'm a 1/2 full or 1/2 empy kind of a guy: I said 3/4 full. Maybe I'm just clutching at straws looking for reasons to elevate my expectations for what could be a rough year. Or maybe I'm on to something.
Look for guys like Garrett Graham, Gabe Carimi, O'Brien Schofield, and Jaevery McFadden to really take the reigns. They will lead, others will follow. Teams need leaders, not cliques.
I think we'll see true leaders this season (though I won't go so far as to suggest they will be as good at leading as that 2006 group). I won't be at all surprised to see this group acting more like a team than last year's.
Badger Blogger Roundtable: 2009 Offense
A handful of Badger Bloggers got together to discuss the upcoming football season. Joining me are Scott Tappa of Badgercentric, Phil Mitten of Hoops Marinara (a Badger basketball blog -- nice alliteration on that one, no?), and Adam Hoge of Bucky's 5th Quarter. We started with the easier task, making sense of the offense:
What's your take on the WR's? Is Gilreath really the #1? Where does Jefferson fit in post multiple concussions?
Bucky’s Fifth Quarter: Gilreath is No. 1 right now, but I'm convinced Nick Toon will be a starter by the opener. Whether that means he takes Isaac Anderson's spot or Gilreath's, we shall see, but Toon has great size and he proved last year he could make some big catches. As for Jefferson, I think it is all up to him. I didn't really like his attitude last season after a pretty good freshman year and I think that had a lot to do with his sub-par season. Attitude plays a big part in getting over concussions as well. Jefferson has the tools to make the UW receivers a scary group, but that doesn't necessarily mean he will make it happen.
BadgerCentric: Don't think Gilreath is the #1, not strong enough. Think it's gotta be Toon. Jefferson is the deep threat, can't see sending him over the middle any more. I have faith in Gilreath and Anderson to find openings in coverage, Brandon Williams types.
Hoops Marinara: Gilreath may be our best, but he's certainly not a #1. Honestly, I wish the best for Jefferson to contribute, but at this point I am hoping for Toon and/or Anderson to pass him by, preferrably Toon so we can have a steady option on the outside to go with Graham on the inside. Gilreath is slightly overrated as a return man (still waiting for that first TD!), but he does have the ability to break a big play. Maybe Jefferson could develop into our jump ball specialist in the red zone. Work on those hands son!
On Wisconsin: I think Gilreath was #1 last season by default -- Anderson had been hurt and Toon and Jefferson were far less experienced. I think he starts this season #3, as the slot receiver. Toon probably has the most talent, although I sometimes think we all get distracted by his last name. Anderson is a better pure receiver than Gilreath. Maybe not as fast, but better hands and better size. Anderson and Toon are your starting two. Gilreath is dangerous in space, but I think he’s #3 based on his size and hands. Jefferson? He’s a good kid, but I worry a lot about his head. I can’t see him starting over any of those three, so he spells Toon and Anderson. I think this is the best group of receivers – especially when you factor in the tight ends – in more than five years (with the depth, better than Williams, Orr, and Daniels). I’m excited about our passing game . . . IF . . .
The Running Backs? Anyone else think Brown may take more than 1/3 of the snaps this season? Worried about depth?
Hoops Marinara: What me, worry? No, I think the depth is fine at RB. Wisconsin has always done well with the next man in philosophy, so the Badgers can handle a minor injury here and there and use a Ewing or an Erik Smith as needed. I am okay with Brown taking a full 3rd of the snaps if it means keeping JC the Messiah fresh.
Bucky’s Fifth Quarter: I don't think Brown gets a third of the snaps unless John Clay has to battle some injuries. Still, a fourth of the carries seems realistic because of Brown's talent. I'm not worried about depth because Montee Ball provides some emergency insurance much like Brown did during his freshman season. The difference is that UW needed Brown because Lance Smith couldn't play in road games, but if Wisconsin needs to use Ball this season because of injuries then they could pull the red-shirt early.
BadgerCentric: Hadn't thought of it, but I agree Brown might take more than a third of the snaps, a combination of his being pretty good, Clay being in his first season as the main guy, and probably more third downs than we'd like.
On Wisconsin: I’m still not sold on Clay as the every-down back. The position takes more than just running the ball hard and I think Chryst’s offense looks for more flexibility with the back (see, e.g., Calhoun, Brian). Brown provides a lot more of that. I think Brown could see as many as 40% of the snaps, though probably only about 1/4 of the carries. Regardless, if they stay healthy, I honestly think this is the best 1-2 combination in the Big Ten this year.
Tight Ends? So Graham is a beast, how dangerous is Kendricks? Will Turner really just be a fullback already at the line? Will we ever even see a true fullback with this offense?
On Wisconsin: Kendricks is dangerous enough to line up wide as a receiver every now and again, which makes sending in the right personnel tough for the defensive coordinator. I like that flexibility and with him and Graham out there you see a great 2-tight end set. That said, Mickey Turner played very well last season as a traditional tight end and several times proved he could make the catches we need that #2 tight end to make. Remember in 2006 when we went the whole season without a fullback? Worked out ok. I suspect Turner will play a fullback-ish role, but I think it will most often come after he lines up as a second tight end. I think we see very little of a traditional fullback this season. At least that’s my hope – our personnel are built for the 2-tight end set.
Hoops Marinara: I anticipate the Graham/Kendricks combo to surpass the Beckum/Graham combo ... of last season. That means accumulating more than 2008's 60+ catches, 800+ yards and 5 TDs. Very doable as long as they are both healthy.
Bucky’s Fifth Quarter: Lance Kendricks is very dangerous and we've seen in past years how much better UW's offense is when they have two tight ends that can catch the ball. As far as Turner goes, I think he gets a good amount of snaps at the traditional fullback position. The fullback has been pretty important in recent years and if they need to use him there they will.
BadgerCentric: I can see fullbacks still playing a part of this offense, seems like we're still recruiting that type of kid. Turner's a blocker, not much more. With Graham and a solid group of wide receivers, I don't see Kendricks catching more than 35 or 40 passes, max, even if he's a lot better.
And the biggie . . . who's it going to be? Who should it be? And why?
BadgerCentric: It's going to be Sherer, at least at the start. It should be ... Budmayr if he's even close to being ready. A reach? Maybe. But my sense is he's the best passer of this group, he probably wouldn't be much worse than the other guys this year, and we could have him start for four years.
On Wisconsin: I guess I just don’t trust inexperienced players and I think Sherer got a bad rap. He played very well after his first start (Iowa; that can hardly be blamed on him). He also got the ball to his WRs more than either Evridge or Donovan did, which is a positive. Did he look bad against FSU? In the second half, but he had little time to throw the ball and the offense was predictable at that point. I think we’ll see pretty solid (not spectacular) play from Dustin this year and the real battle will be redshirt Freshman Budmayr vs. Sophomore Phillips in 2010.
Hoops Marinara: Scherer to start. But it should be Phillips from Day 1. He's put a year in on the scout team already. Phillips has the running instincts that has brought Wisconsin success in the past (ie: Samuels, Bollinger) but a better arm.
Bucky’s Fifth Quarter: As of today it is going to be Dustin Sherer and should be Dustin Sherer because Curt Phillips and Jon Budmayr haven't shown enough yet to be considered a starter. Still, I find it slightly peculiar that Sherer isn't one of the three players representing the Badgers at Big Ten Media Days this year. We know -- and I think the coaches know -- that this is still Dustin Sherer we are talking about. He has never shown us anything spectacular and if Curt Phillips comes on strong during camp then it wouldn't surprise me at all if Sherer didn't start the season at quarterback. At the very least, I doubt Sherer starts all 12 regular season games.
I guess on offense all that leaves is the line: How will it be with three new starters? Was Bielema serious that Konz could push Oglesby out of the starter's spot, or was he just making a point to Josh? How will Bscherer be at guard? Anyone else worried about a lack of depth at guard? Will anything stop the rash of false starts and holding penalties?
Bucky’s Fifth Quarter: I think the Peter Konz chatter was a motivational ploy to get Oglesby going. We are getting close to that point where if Oglesby isn't starting now then he might never be starting. Bscherer will be fine at guard, but probably not spectacular. Fans should be worried about the depth right now, but I think guys like Travis Frederick and Jake Current will ease those worries by the end of the season. If the false starts and holding penalties don't stop then that reflects back on the coaching staff. I think that is one of a handful of improvements that we have to see this season or the hot seat will start scorching Bielema's rear end.
On Wisconsin: Oglesby was a 5-star because of his size, but Konz wasn’t a legit threat to his position; Josh will start. The fact that they moved Bscherer to guard, rather than demoting Oglesby, tells me Josh is doing ok, if maybe not living up to all the (probably unfair) hype. I see injuries at the guard position as a real concern. Freshman lineman aren’t something you like to see, and that’s where we are if Bscherer or Nagy goes down. Bielema and Chryst need to end the penalties. I’ve never coached football, so I don’t know how to do it, but it needs to happen. If it does, I think we’re looking at a solid line, maybe as good as last year (especially considering how many games Oglesby and Nagy played significant minutes in).
BadgerCentric: The line won't be as good as last year, but I'm not worried about it. Carimi is a stud, Moffitt's solid, and the other three starters have starting experience. I could see Konz beating out Oglesby, he struggled mightily at times last year. Bscherer I see being a Matt Lawrence type, someone who's not going to be a huge plus but isn't going to be a liability.
Hoops Marinara: I am looking for a hungrier group of lineman this year that could surprise some people. Bielema is not afraid to call guys out (remember P.J. Hill's "toughen-up pills"?), so Oglesby needs to get it together quickly. Everything looks if he finally gets it, even the depth. Unfortunately, I think as long as Bielema is the head coach some undisciplined play will be the norm. We know he's less of a cool collected guy than Barry, plus he's spread himself too thin.
What's your take on the WR's? Is Gilreath really the #1? Where does Jefferson fit in post multiple concussions?
Bucky’s Fifth Quarter: Gilreath is No. 1 right now, but I'm convinced Nick Toon will be a starter by the opener. Whether that means he takes Isaac Anderson's spot or Gilreath's, we shall see, but Toon has great size and he proved last year he could make some big catches. As for Jefferson, I think it is all up to him. I didn't really like his attitude last season after a pretty good freshman year and I think that had a lot to do with his sub-par season. Attitude plays a big part in getting over concussions as well. Jefferson has the tools to make the UW receivers a scary group, but that doesn't necessarily mean he will make it happen.
BadgerCentric: Don't think Gilreath is the #1, not strong enough. Think it's gotta be Toon. Jefferson is the deep threat, can't see sending him over the middle any more. I have faith in Gilreath and Anderson to find openings in coverage, Brandon Williams types.
Hoops Marinara: Gilreath may be our best, but he's certainly not a #1. Honestly, I wish the best for Jefferson to contribute, but at this point I am hoping for Toon and/or Anderson to pass him by, preferrably Toon so we can have a steady option on the outside to go with Graham on the inside. Gilreath is slightly overrated as a return man (still waiting for that first TD!), but he does have the ability to break a big play. Maybe Jefferson could develop into our jump ball specialist in the red zone. Work on those hands son!
On Wisconsin: I think Gilreath was #1 last season by default -- Anderson had been hurt and Toon and Jefferson were far less experienced. I think he starts this season #3, as the slot receiver. Toon probably has the most talent, although I sometimes think we all get distracted by his last name. Anderson is a better pure receiver than Gilreath. Maybe not as fast, but better hands and better size. Anderson and Toon are your starting two. Gilreath is dangerous in space, but I think he’s #3 based on his size and hands. Jefferson? He’s a good kid, but I worry a lot about his head. I can’t see him starting over any of those three, so he spells Toon and Anderson. I think this is the best group of receivers – especially when you factor in the tight ends – in more than five years (with the depth, better than Williams, Orr, and Daniels). I’m excited about our passing game . . . IF . . .
The Running Backs? Anyone else think Brown may take more than 1/3 of the snaps this season? Worried about depth?
Hoops Marinara: What me, worry? No, I think the depth is fine at RB. Wisconsin has always done well with the next man in philosophy, so the Badgers can handle a minor injury here and there and use a Ewing or an Erik Smith as needed. I am okay with Brown taking a full 3rd of the snaps if it means keeping JC the Messiah fresh.
Bucky’s Fifth Quarter: I don't think Brown gets a third of the snaps unless John Clay has to battle some injuries. Still, a fourth of the carries seems realistic because of Brown's talent. I'm not worried about depth because Montee Ball provides some emergency insurance much like Brown did during his freshman season. The difference is that UW needed Brown because Lance Smith couldn't play in road games, but if Wisconsin needs to use Ball this season because of injuries then they could pull the red-shirt early.
BadgerCentric: Hadn't thought of it, but I agree Brown might take more than a third of the snaps, a combination of his being pretty good, Clay being in his first season as the main guy, and probably more third downs than we'd like.
On Wisconsin: I’m still not sold on Clay as the every-down back. The position takes more than just running the ball hard and I think Chryst’s offense looks for more flexibility with the back (see, e.g., Calhoun, Brian). Brown provides a lot more of that. I think Brown could see as many as 40% of the snaps, though probably only about 1/4 of the carries. Regardless, if they stay healthy, I honestly think this is the best 1-2 combination in the Big Ten this year.
Tight Ends? So Graham is a beast, how dangerous is Kendricks? Will Turner really just be a fullback already at the line? Will we ever even see a true fullback with this offense?
On Wisconsin: Kendricks is dangerous enough to line up wide as a receiver every now and again, which makes sending in the right personnel tough for the defensive coordinator. I like that flexibility and with him and Graham out there you see a great 2-tight end set. That said, Mickey Turner played very well last season as a traditional tight end and several times proved he could make the catches we need that #2 tight end to make. Remember in 2006 when we went the whole season without a fullback? Worked out ok. I suspect Turner will play a fullback-ish role, but I think it will most often come after he lines up as a second tight end. I think we see very little of a traditional fullback this season. At least that’s my hope – our personnel are built for the 2-tight end set.
Hoops Marinara: I anticipate the Graham/Kendricks combo to surpass the Beckum/Graham combo ... of last season. That means accumulating more than 2008's 60+ catches, 800+ yards and 5 TDs. Very doable as long as they are both healthy.
Bucky’s Fifth Quarter: Lance Kendricks is very dangerous and we've seen in past years how much better UW's offense is when they have two tight ends that can catch the ball. As far as Turner goes, I think he gets a good amount of snaps at the traditional fullback position. The fullback has been pretty important in recent years and if they need to use him there they will.
BadgerCentric: I can see fullbacks still playing a part of this offense, seems like we're still recruiting that type of kid. Turner's a blocker, not much more. With Graham and a solid group of wide receivers, I don't see Kendricks catching more than 35 or 40 passes, max, even if he's a lot better.
And the biggie . . . who's it going to be? Who should it be? And why?
BadgerCentric: It's going to be Sherer, at least at the start. It should be ... Budmayr if he's even close to being ready. A reach? Maybe. But my sense is he's the best passer of this group, he probably wouldn't be much worse than the other guys this year, and we could have him start for four years.
On Wisconsin: I guess I just don’t trust inexperienced players and I think Sherer got a bad rap. He played very well after his first start (Iowa; that can hardly be blamed on him). He also got the ball to his WRs more than either Evridge or Donovan did, which is a positive. Did he look bad against FSU? In the second half, but he had little time to throw the ball and the offense was predictable at that point. I think we’ll see pretty solid (not spectacular) play from Dustin this year and the real battle will be redshirt Freshman Budmayr vs. Sophomore Phillips in 2010.
Hoops Marinara: Scherer to start. But it should be Phillips from Day 1. He's put a year in on the scout team already. Phillips has the running instincts that has brought Wisconsin success in the past (ie: Samuels, Bollinger) but a better arm.
Bucky’s Fifth Quarter: As of today it is going to be Dustin Sherer and should be Dustin Sherer because Curt Phillips and Jon Budmayr haven't shown enough yet to be considered a starter. Still, I find it slightly peculiar that Sherer isn't one of the three players representing the Badgers at Big Ten Media Days this year. We know -- and I think the coaches know -- that this is still Dustin Sherer we are talking about. He has never shown us anything spectacular and if Curt Phillips comes on strong during camp then it wouldn't surprise me at all if Sherer didn't start the season at quarterback. At the very least, I doubt Sherer starts all 12 regular season games.
I guess on offense all that leaves is the line: How will it be with three new starters? Was Bielema serious that Konz could push Oglesby out of the starter's spot, or was he just making a point to Josh? How will Bscherer be at guard? Anyone else worried about a lack of depth at guard? Will anything stop the rash of false starts and holding penalties?
Bucky’s Fifth Quarter: I think the Peter Konz chatter was a motivational ploy to get Oglesby going. We are getting close to that point where if Oglesby isn't starting now then he might never be starting. Bscherer will be fine at guard, but probably not spectacular. Fans should be worried about the depth right now, but I think guys like Travis Frederick and Jake Current will ease those worries by the end of the season. If the false starts and holding penalties don't stop then that reflects back on the coaching staff. I think that is one of a handful of improvements that we have to see this season or the hot seat will start scorching Bielema's rear end.
On Wisconsin: Oglesby was a 5-star because of his size, but Konz wasn’t a legit threat to his position; Josh will start. The fact that they moved Bscherer to guard, rather than demoting Oglesby, tells me Josh is doing ok, if maybe not living up to all the (probably unfair) hype. I see injuries at the guard position as a real concern. Freshman lineman aren’t something you like to see, and that’s where we are if Bscherer or Nagy goes down. Bielema and Chryst need to end the penalties. I’ve never coached football, so I don’t know how to do it, but it needs to happen. If it does, I think we’re looking at a solid line, maybe as good as last year (especially considering how many games Oglesby and Nagy played significant minutes in).
BadgerCentric: The line won't be as good as last year, but I'm not worried about it. Carimi is a stud, Moffitt's solid, and the other three starters have starting experience. I could see Konz beating out Oglesby, he struggled mightily at times last year. Bscherer I see being a Matt Lawrence type, someone who's not going to be a huge plus but isn't going to be a liability.
Hoops Marinara: I am looking for a hungrier group of lineman this year that could surprise some people. Bielema is not afraid to call guys out (remember P.J. Hill's "toughen-up pills"?), so Oglesby needs to get it together quickly. Everything looks if he finally gets it, even the depth. Unfortunately, I think as long as Bielema is the head coach some undisciplined play will be the norm. We know he's less of a cool collected guy than Barry, plus he's spread himself too thin.
It's a Numbers Game
The new roster, complete with incoming freshmen and new numbers is up. Notable changes: Jay Valai from #12 to #2, filling the sizable shoes of Casillas and Calhoun. However, more relevant to Valai -- and even bigger shoes -- two standout corners have worn the number, Scott Starks, this Scott Starks, and all-time Badger corner Jamar Fletcher.
Kyle Jefferson takes his third number in three years (previously #14 and #7) at #3, worn by maybe THE great all-time Badger receiver, Lee Evans.
Blake Sorenson abandons #27 (my favorite number) to take up #9, most recently used by Beckum, and before him Orr; if it does for him on defense what it did for them on offense, not too shabby. Oh, and some guy named Paul Chryst also wore it once (also on offense).
Finally, J.J. Watt switches from #87, a tight-end-feeling number, to #99, a dominate-the-line kind of number (best worn, apparently, by Rick Graf, a linebacker before my time).
Some other notes:
No one on the roster is listed as a fullback.
As for the incoming freshman?
Fan-favorite-in-the-making, QB Jon Budmayr will wear #5, same as that Brooks Bollinger fella.
DL David Gilbert will wear #11, worn best in my memory by Darrell Bevell and Owen Daniels, and also well by DeAndre Levy. DB Ed Withers, the Badgers' first Black All-American (twice), also wore the number.
DB Desmond Southward better be tough as he takes the #12 abandoned by Jay Valai and Tyler Donovan.
Stud LB recruit Conor O'Neill takes #13, a number ordinarily worn on offense, but I like it when linebackers wear those low numbers.
WR Jeff Duckworth is #15, worn once by some Vander Kelen guy you may have heard of.
DB Josh Peprah is #17, left behind by All-Big Ten and team MVP CB Allen Langford.
DB Darious Thomas is #23, but with DB Mario Goins already wearing #23, the newcomer appears slated to redshirt.
Highly touted RB Montee Ball may be looking to make a new number famous for Badger backs, coming in at #31.
LB Ethan Armstrong is #36 worn not too long ago by, get this, freshman linebacker Travis Beckum.
LB AJ Fenton is #39, vacated by PJ Hill.
LB Chris Borland takes #44, worn by Rose Bowl-contributing linebacker Donnel Thompson (we need some more great walk-ons . . .).
TE Jacob Peterson takes #48, which has primarily been a linebacker's number, but worth noting that Garrett Graham wore it his freshman year.
TE Brian Wozniak takes #49.
DL Tyler Dippel is #51, worn best by C "Iron" Mike Webster, a 9-time pro-bowler, and 4-time Super Bowl winner, also on the NFL's 75th anniversary team (not bad; but he left us way too soon).
LB Nick Hill is #52, worn by another center, All-American Cory Ramer, a key cog on the '93 Rose Bowl team, and an 11-year NFLer.
OL Casey Dehn is #63, also worn by a '93 Rose Bowl contributor, G Joe Rudolph (maybe Dehn will fill in some much needed depth at guard?).
OL Travis Frederick is #72. That Joe Thomas guy wore #72. No pressure though.
OL Zach Matthias is #75. All-American Tackle Chris McIntosh wore #75.
DL Ethan Hemer is also #75
OL Ryan Groy is #79. Another solid lineman, Aaron Gibson anchored the line for the '99 Rose Bowl team at #79.
Anticipated star, WR Kraig Appleton took, perhaps looking for a number to blaze his own way as a great Badger receiver, #81.
DL Shelby Harris will live in Garrett Graham's shadow at #89
DL Jordan Kohout is #91 perhaps hoping to live up to lineman Don Davey's long shadow.
DL Pat Muldoon is #92, taking over where Matt Shaughnessy left off.
TE Michael Brunner and K Pat Hughes selected #96, a number not associated with great Badger tight ends or kickers.
Always good to link to these: All-Time Badger Roster, and my take on it, here.
Kyle Jefferson takes his third number in three years (previously #14 and #7) at #3, worn by maybe THE great all-time Badger receiver, Lee Evans.
Blake Sorenson abandons #27 (my favorite number) to take up #9, most recently used by Beckum, and before him Orr; if it does for him on defense what it did for them on offense, not too shabby. Oh, and some guy named Paul Chryst also wore it once (also on offense).
Finally, J.J. Watt switches from #87, a tight-end-feeling number, to #99, a dominate-the-line kind of number (best worn, apparently, by Rick Graf, a linebacker before my time).
Some other notes:
No one on the roster is listed as a fullback.
Eric Kossoris is still listed as #32 at WR, but if so, he can't play at the same time as this fella. Something tells me Eric isn't looking at a lot of playing time on offense.
As for the incoming freshman?
Fan-favorite-in-the-making, QB Jon Budmayr will wear #5, same as that Brooks Bollinger fella.
DL David Gilbert will wear #11, worn best in my memory by Darrell Bevell and Owen Daniels, and also well by DeAndre Levy. DB Ed Withers, the Badgers' first Black All-American (twice), also wore the number.
DB Desmond Southward better be tough as he takes the #12 abandoned by Jay Valai and Tyler Donovan.
Stud LB recruit Conor O'Neill takes #13, a number ordinarily worn on offense, but I like it when linebackers wear those low numbers.
WR Jeff Duckworth is #15, worn once by some Vander Kelen guy you may have heard of.
DB Josh Peprah is #17, left behind by All-Big Ten and team MVP CB Allen Langford.
DB Darious Thomas is #23, but with DB Mario Goins already wearing #23, the newcomer appears slated to redshirt.
Highly touted RB Montee Ball may be looking to make a new number famous for Badger backs, coming in at #31.
LB Ethan Armstrong is #36 worn not too long ago by, get this, freshman linebacker Travis Beckum.
LB AJ Fenton is #39, vacated by PJ Hill.
LB Chris Borland takes #44, worn by Rose Bowl-contributing linebacker Donnel Thompson (we need some more great walk-ons . . .).
TE Jacob Peterson takes #48, which has primarily been a linebacker's number, but worth noting that Garrett Graham wore it his freshman year.
TE Brian Wozniak takes #49.
DL Tyler Dippel is #51, worn best by C "Iron" Mike Webster, a 9-time pro-bowler, and 4-time Super Bowl winner, also on the NFL's 75th anniversary team (not bad; but he left us way too soon).
LB Nick Hill is #52, worn by another center, All-American Cory Ramer, a key cog on the '93 Rose Bowl team, and an 11-year NFLer.
OL Casey Dehn is #63, also worn by a '93 Rose Bowl contributor, G Joe Rudolph (maybe Dehn will fill in some much needed depth at guard?).
OL Travis Frederick is #72. That Joe Thomas guy wore #72. No pressure though.
OL Zach Matthias is #75. All-American Tackle Chris McIntosh wore #75.
DL Ethan Hemer is also #75
OL Ryan Groy is #79. Another solid lineman, Aaron Gibson anchored the line for the '99 Rose Bowl team at #79.
Anticipated star, WR Kraig Appleton took, perhaps looking for a number to blaze his own way as a great Badger receiver, #81.
DL Shelby Harris will live in Garrett Graham's shadow at #89
DL Jordan Kohout is #91 perhaps hoping to live up to lineman Don Davey's long shadow.
DL Pat Muldoon is #92, taking over where Matt Shaughnessy left off.
TE Michael Brunner and K Pat Hughes selected #96, a number not associated with great Badger tight ends or kickers.
Always good to link to these: All-Time Badger Roster, and my take on it, here.
2009 Badger Football Post-Spring Preview
We’ve got them where we want them: thinking we’ll be average.
I'm not saying we'll have a great team, but I think we'll have a pretty darned solid record and a nice bowl game to show for it.
Let’s just get it out of the way: starting quarterback Dustin Sherer (sr.). No, he’s not Brooks Bollinger, but it is what it is. Here’s the upside: he was good enough to beat Michigan State (even though we didn’t), Illinois, Indiana, Minnesota and Cal Poly (though our defense did what they could to surrender that one, too). Iowa wasn’t his fault (and it was his first collegiate start). He’s going to be even better this year. Great? No, but solid. That’s what we need, not some red-shirt freshman with a wobbly arm. And especially not with the other weapons on our offense.
If Sherer is decent, this offense could be spectacular. Clay (so.) and Brown (jr.) are a solid 1-2 combo. Clay will get more carries, but probably not that many more (I’m guessing 60/40) -- Brown is the better all-around back because of his blocking and hands in the passing game). Playing in a two-tight end set, with potential All-American Graham (sr.) and Kendricks (jr.), or Turner (jr.) (playing a hybrid fullback role from the TE spot), we’re going to see versatility Chryst hasn’t had to work with in a couple of years. Add to that Isaac Anderson (jr.) and Nick Toon (so.) starting at receiver, with David Gilreath (jr.) and Kyle Jefferson (jr.) adding depth and a solid 3-WR set. That’s a pretty stacked set of skill players by Badger standards.
With the departure of three starters and everything on offense relying on them, it’s reasonable to question how good the line will be? Pretty good. Carimi (jr.) is the leader, at left tackle, with a very capable and athletic Moffitt (jr.) at center. At right tackle Josh Oglesby (so.) needs to get and stay mean, but brings a load to move the right side of the line. Converted tackle Bscherer (jr.) and game-tested Nagy (jr.) will do well at the guard spots. Oglesby, Bsherer, and Nagy are all “new” starters, but all have significant playing experience as back-ups and starting several games in place of injured guys ahead of them. This line may not be all world, but it will be solid. The biggest area of concern is depth at guard. The Badgers just don’t have a stable of guards. One of the lesser problems to have, but one that an injury or two could really exacerbate.
In short, look for a capable and balanced Badger offense. Sherer won’t be asked to sling the ball all over the place, but he will throw more than the Badgers did last season, and with the skill the Badgers have around him, the Cardinal and White should be prolific.
That’s the good news.
With all the talk about who the starting quarterback should be, the defensive front seven hasn’t gotten the attention critics should give it. One starter returns to his position from last season. One.
Who knows what the defense will look like this season? Maybe a change of blood will mean the end of late-game struggles? (See, e.g., Florida State ‘09, Minnesota ’08, MSU ’08, OSU ’08, Michigan ’08, Fresno State ’08, Minnesota ’07, Michigan ’07, OSU ’07, and MSU ’07.) That’s the hope. In the mean time, who’s doing what for the new front 7? Schofield (sr.) is the [only] returning starter (DE) and got better and better as last year wore on. While no star, he’s good enough. At the other end, Watt (so.) turned heads throughout his mandatory (transfer) red-shirt year and continued doing so throughout the spring. There’s reason to be excited about him. Backing them up are two guys who show lots of promise in the passing game, but are pretty light to defend the run, Nzegwu (so., 245 lbs.), and Kelly (fr., 240 lbs.). The middle is a source of real concern. Dan Moore (sr.) is a solid player, but is a more natural end converted to tackle. Stehle (sr.) has yet to establish himself as a real presence inside, even with playing time last year. Backing them up are Butrym (so.) who has potential, but is young and not big (280 lbs.), and Cascone (sr.). In passing downs we may see Watt move inside with Nzegwu or Kelly taking his spot on the end.
Moving to the linebackers, talk about a lack of depth. McFadden (sr.) is a returning starter, but moves back outside (his more natural position). Culmer St. Jean (jr.) finally takes the middle position he’s been groomed for over the last two years. And Sorensen (jr.) is the other outside linebacker. McFadden and St. Jean should be fine, maybe even pretty good. Sorensen hasn’t shown up much, despite plenty of playing time and experience. And the two-deep? Freshman and sophomores with no real experience. All the guys on the list have gotten some favorable comments from their peers and coaches, but favorable comments don’t read offenses, shed blocks, and make tackles.
So, real questions up front for the Badgers. If I were an opponent, I’d game plan running the ball right at us. The good news on defense is the secondary.
Aaron Henry (so.) is back at one corner, and looks like his knee has finally healed up. He will get the opposition’s better receiver. Brinkley (jr.) and Devin Smith (so.) both look decent at the other corner (Brinkley will probably start), with Fenelus (so.) not far behind. At safety, after toying with a left/right idea (which held for the linebackers), the coaching staff is back with a strong/free set. Given the personnel, that makes sense. Valai (jr.) is purely a strong safety and Maragos (sr.) and Carter (sr.) are free-types and pretty good (Carter should press Maragos for the starting spot). Pleasant (sr.) could go either way, but has spent most of his career in Madison at strong safety, and is a pretty good option backing up Valai (or pressing him to start). These guys won’t all be pros (maybe a couple will), but they make up a solid Big Ten secondary.
In the kicking game, Welch (so., PK) and Nortman (so., punter) will continue to be fine. The Badgers need more out of Gilreath in the return game, and need to continue to improve their coverage.
In summary, expect the Badgers to play high scoring games this season. Despite all the talk about the quarterback situation, the offense should be very good, but don’t be surprised to see the defense give up long, sustained drives against teams running the ball up the gut.
And as for a game-by-game prediction?
Northern Illinois: Win
Fresno State: Win (but closer than it should be unless we can focus entirely on stopping the run)
Wofford: Win (augh)
Michigan State: Win (because it’s at home; expect a close fight)
@ Minnesota: Loss (they return almost everybody, we’ve struggled with them for two years, and it’s a huge home game for them in their new place)
@ Ohio State: Loss (close, but Pryor will do what he has to against our defense)
Iowa: Win (screw them!)
Purdue: Win (they just aren’t very good)
@ Indiana: Win (still Indiana football)
Michigan: Win (but close, they will be much improved and their option will hurt our defense)
@ Northwestern: Win (another close one; their defense is better than ours, but our offense will prevail)
@ Hawaii: Win (not the same since their coaching change)
That’s an unreasonably optimistic 10-2, with a terrible out-of-conference schedule, and optimistic picks against Michigan State, Iowa, and Northwestern. With as weak a Big Ten slate as we have this season (no Penn State or Illinois, still rebuidling Michigan, MSU with a new quarterback and running back, Iowa has a new running back, and Northwestern has a new quarterback), 10-2 just isn't that impressive. Worse than 8-4 would be a disaster of a season.
I'm not saying we'll have a great team, but I think we'll have a pretty darned solid record and a nice bowl game to show for it.
Let’s just get it out of the way: starting quarterback Dustin Sherer (sr.). No, he’s not Brooks Bollinger, but it is what it is. Here’s the upside: he was good enough to beat Michigan State (even though we didn’t), Illinois, Indiana, Minnesota and Cal Poly (though our defense did what they could to surrender that one, too). Iowa wasn’t his fault (and it was his first collegiate start). He’s going to be even better this year. Great? No, but solid. That’s what we need, not some red-shirt freshman with a wobbly arm. And especially not with the other weapons on our offense.
If Sherer is decent, this offense could be spectacular. Clay (so.) and Brown (jr.) are a solid 1-2 combo. Clay will get more carries, but probably not that many more (I’m guessing 60/40) -- Brown is the better all-around back because of his blocking and hands in the passing game). Playing in a two-tight end set, with potential All-American Graham (sr.) and Kendricks (jr.), or Turner (jr.) (playing a hybrid fullback role from the TE spot), we’re going to see versatility Chryst hasn’t had to work with in a couple of years. Add to that Isaac Anderson (jr.) and Nick Toon (so.) starting at receiver, with David Gilreath (jr.) and Kyle Jefferson (jr.) adding depth and a solid 3-WR set. That’s a pretty stacked set of skill players by Badger standards.
With the departure of three starters and everything on offense relying on them, it’s reasonable to question how good the line will be? Pretty good. Carimi (jr.) is the leader, at left tackle, with a very capable and athletic Moffitt (jr.) at center. At right tackle Josh Oglesby (so.) needs to get and stay mean, but brings a load to move the right side of the line. Converted tackle Bscherer (jr.) and game-tested Nagy (jr.) will do well at the guard spots. Oglesby, Bsherer, and Nagy are all “new” starters, but all have significant playing experience as back-ups and starting several games in place of injured guys ahead of them. This line may not be all world, but it will be solid. The biggest area of concern is depth at guard. The Badgers just don’t have a stable of guards. One of the lesser problems to have, but one that an injury or two could really exacerbate.
In short, look for a capable and balanced Badger offense. Sherer won’t be asked to sling the ball all over the place, but he will throw more than the Badgers did last season, and with the skill the Badgers have around him, the Cardinal and White should be prolific.
That’s the good news.
With all the talk about who the starting quarterback should be, the defensive front seven hasn’t gotten the attention critics should give it. One starter returns to his position from last season. One.
Who knows what the defense will look like this season? Maybe a change of blood will mean the end of late-game struggles? (See, e.g., Florida State ‘09, Minnesota ’08, MSU ’08, OSU ’08, Michigan ’08, Fresno State ’08, Minnesota ’07, Michigan ’07, OSU ’07, and MSU ’07.) That’s the hope. In the mean time, who’s doing what for the new front 7? Schofield (sr.) is the [only] returning starter (DE) and got better and better as last year wore on. While no star, he’s good enough. At the other end, Watt (so.) turned heads throughout his mandatory (transfer) red-shirt year and continued doing so throughout the spring. There’s reason to be excited about him. Backing them up are two guys who show lots of promise in the passing game, but are pretty light to defend the run, Nzegwu (so., 245 lbs.), and Kelly (fr., 240 lbs.). The middle is a source of real concern. Dan Moore (sr.) is a solid player, but is a more natural end converted to tackle. Stehle (sr.) has yet to establish himself as a real presence inside, even with playing time last year. Backing them up are Butrym (so.) who has potential, but is young and not big (280 lbs.), and Cascone (sr.). In passing downs we may see Watt move inside with Nzegwu or Kelly taking his spot on the end.
Moving to the linebackers, talk about a lack of depth. McFadden (sr.) is a returning starter, but moves back outside (his more natural position). Culmer St. Jean (jr.) finally takes the middle position he’s been groomed for over the last two years. And Sorensen (jr.) is the other outside linebacker. McFadden and St. Jean should be fine, maybe even pretty good. Sorensen hasn’t shown up much, despite plenty of playing time and experience. And the two-deep? Freshman and sophomores with no real experience. All the guys on the list have gotten some favorable comments from their peers and coaches, but favorable comments don’t read offenses, shed blocks, and make tackles.
So, real questions up front for the Badgers. If I were an opponent, I’d game plan running the ball right at us. The good news on defense is the secondary.
Aaron Henry (so.) is back at one corner, and looks like his knee has finally healed up. He will get the opposition’s better receiver. Brinkley (jr.) and Devin Smith (so.) both look decent at the other corner (Brinkley will probably start), with Fenelus (so.) not far behind. At safety, after toying with a left/right idea (which held for the linebackers), the coaching staff is back with a strong/free set. Given the personnel, that makes sense. Valai (jr.) is purely a strong safety and Maragos (sr.) and Carter (sr.) are free-types and pretty good (Carter should press Maragos for the starting spot). Pleasant (sr.) could go either way, but has spent most of his career in Madison at strong safety, and is a pretty good option backing up Valai (or pressing him to start). These guys won’t all be pros (maybe a couple will), but they make up a solid Big Ten secondary.
In the kicking game, Welch (so., PK) and Nortman (so., punter) will continue to be fine. The Badgers need more out of Gilreath in the return game, and need to continue to improve their coverage.
In summary, expect the Badgers to play high scoring games this season. Despite all the talk about the quarterback situation, the offense should be very good, but don’t be surprised to see the defense give up long, sustained drives against teams running the ball up the gut.
And as for a game-by-game prediction?
Northern Illinois: Win
Fresno State: Win (but closer than it should be unless we can focus entirely on stopping the run)
Wofford: Win (augh)
Michigan State: Win (because it’s at home; expect a close fight)
@ Minnesota: Loss (they return almost everybody, we’ve struggled with them for two years, and it’s a huge home game for them in their new place)
@ Ohio State: Loss (close, but Pryor will do what he has to against our defense)
Iowa: Win (screw them!)
Purdue: Win (they just aren’t very good)
@ Indiana: Win (still Indiana football)
Michigan: Win (but close, they will be much improved and their option will hurt our defense)
@ Northwestern: Win (another close one; their defense is better than ours, but our offense will prevail)
@ Hawaii: Win (not the same since their coaching change)
That’s an unreasonably optimistic 10-2, with a terrible out-of-conference schedule, and optimistic picks against Michigan State, Iowa, and Northwestern. With as weak a Big Ten slate as we have this season (no Penn State or Illinois, still rebuidling Michigan, MSU with a new quarterback and running back, Iowa has a new running back, and Northwestern has a new quarterback), 10-2 just isn't that impressive. Worse than 8-4 would be a disaster of a season.
I'll take Sherer, please.
The quarterback's job is to manage the game and make throws. Unless I'm delusional, the choice couldn't be clearer if the season started today: Sherer. Phillips is fun to watch and can do more with his legs, but that's not his job. Playing against the second team he consistently threw inaccurate balls into coverage. Playing the game he played on Saturday against a solid defense would be a disaster. There's nothing wrong with that: he's a redshirt freshman. He's not really supposed to be game ready. Sherer is.
Sure, the pick was bad. Really bad. The throw was late, but the pass was never open and Brown -- presumably the earlier read -- was, right over the middle for an easy 5-7 yards. Ok, so bad, bad throw. But outside of that throw, he was solid and had one or two throws that no one else on the team can make, and it's not close. Not right now. So Sherer, please.
Could Phillips challenge in the fall? Yes, but I wouldn't count on it. Could Chyrst install something to try to make Phillips Tim Tebow, circa 2006? Sure. Maybe that's even likely (except the Tim Tebow part). I think the more interesting quarterback battle will be next Spring when it's Budmayr and Phillips. I think this statement Potrykus wrote pretty much sums up this fall: "If [Phillips] makes similar progress in the summer it is conceivable he could push Sherer in camp." If, conceivable, could . . . Phillips is your starter.
Ok, so on to a few other things I noted:
(1) Turner at fullback. I'm not excited about it. I'd rather see two tight ends and two wide receivers. But I'm not in charge and Chryst knows a lot more about this stuff than I do.
(2) Where was Isaac Anderson? He emerged towards the end of last season, but we didn't see much from him on Saturday. Is Jefferson really ahead of him on the depth chart? I didn't think so, but after the game, maybe. Gilreath appears no higher than third on the depth chart. I think that's a good call.
(3) Still pretty confident we'll see Clay starting, but Brown with about 40% of the snaps.
(4) I'm scared stiff of injuries to the offensive line. There is no quality depth. As with Phillips, nothing against the freshman on the depth chart, it's just not a position freshman should have to play.
(5) Linebacker isn't looking good. There's no depth, and Sorenson didn't look like he was playing at full speed.
(6) Glad not to see any fumbles.
(7) Penalties weren't bad, but the holding needs to go.
Sure, the pick was bad. Really bad. The throw was late, but the pass was never open and Brown -- presumably the earlier read -- was, right over the middle for an easy 5-7 yards. Ok, so bad, bad throw. But outside of that throw, he was solid and had one or two throws that no one else on the team can make, and it's not close. Not right now. So Sherer, please.
Could Phillips challenge in the fall? Yes, but I wouldn't count on it. Could Chyrst install something to try to make Phillips Tim Tebow, circa 2006? Sure. Maybe that's even likely (except the Tim Tebow part). I think the more interesting quarterback battle will be next Spring when it's Budmayr and Phillips. I think this statement Potrykus wrote pretty much sums up this fall: "If [Phillips] makes similar progress in the summer it is conceivable he could push Sherer in camp." If, conceivable, could . . . Phillips is your starter.
Ok, so on to a few other things I noted:
(1) Turner at fullback. I'm not excited about it. I'd rather see two tight ends and two wide receivers. But I'm not in charge and Chryst knows a lot more about this stuff than I do.
(2) Where was Isaac Anderson? He emerged towards the end of last season, but we didn't see much from him on Saturday. Is Jefferson really ahead of him on the depth chart? I didn't think so, but after the game, maybe. Gilreath appears no higher than third on the depth chart. I think that's a good call.
(3) Still pretty confident we'll see Clay starting, but Brown with about 40% of the snaps.
(4) I'm scared stiff of injuries to the offensive line. There is no quality depth. As with Phillips, nothing against the freshman on the depth chart, it's just not a position freshman should have to play.
(5) Linebacker isn't looking good. There's no depth, and Sorenson didn't look like he was playing at full speed.
(6) Glad not to see any fumbles.
(7) Penalties weren't bad, but the holding needs to go.
Have We Talked About Two-Tight End Sets?
In yesterday's practice report, two items that warmed my heart. The offensive play of the day?
Zach Brown took the handoff on the counter play, following
guard Jake Bscherer and Kendricks. Bscherer wiped out one defender and both
Kendricks and Brown ran downfield untouched for about 25 yards.
Effectively playing with three tackles (Bscherer at guard) could have its advantages . . .
And spotlighting the tight ends:
Whoever ends up being the quarterback will be able to take solace in the fact
that they will be throwing to a very talented group of tight ends. As a group
they haven’t gotten a whole lot of pub this spring. Part of the reason for that
is the headliner in the group, senior Garrett Graham, is an unassuming star.
However, it doesn’t seem like offensive coordinator Paul Chryst will be taking
them for granted.
It seems as though every practice each of UW’s four tight ends come up with multiple catches. There were two that stood out today. One by Lance Kendricks, who absorbed a hit from Niles Brinkley to come up with a reception for about a 20-yard gain. Graham also picked up about 20 yards by jumping in front of safety Aubrey Pleasant, making the catch and coming down with Pleasant on his back.
The biggest item from Bielema's post-practice interview with the media:
If the season started tomorrow, Sherer would start. He's considering packages to get Phillips in the game to take advantage of his running ability, but folks, the smart money is on Sherer.
A couple of days ago, Bielema said the defense is going back to a Strong Safety, Free Safety model rather than the right side/left side idea. No word on the linebackers, but given the personnel at safety, this seems like a good idea (Valai doesn't play much like a free safety).
Handicapping
For what it's worth:
I think Dustin (Sherer) is probably playing as well as he’s ever played since he’s been here at Wisconsin. All the other guys too, Curt Phillips, Scott Tolzien and Jon Budmayr, have all made progress and they have a better understanding and feel for what they’re doing when they’re under center.-- Bret Bielema, April 9, 2009.
Starting Offense?
It seems like every day we're hearing about how good JJ Watt and Nick Toon look. Sometimes Spring sensations don't turn into Fall gold, but I'm optimistic -- it's that time of year. Ok, so take the quarterback off the table for a minute (as before I'm in the Sherer camp, based purely on what we hear) and just look at the starting 10 for the 2009 offense.
No offense to Jones, Spitz, and Ewing, but based on the talent we have, I think you're looking at fewer downs with a fullback in the backfield. I think the sets we'll see the most from Chryst will be two tight ends, two wide receivers, or three wide receivers, 1 tight end, only one tailback. See 2005 (3/1 sets) and 2006 (no healthy fullbacks, lots of 2/2 sets). I'm also thinking that we'll see a Moss/Fletcher circa '93 type split of backfield duties. Brown is the better all-around back, but Clay just brings too much to the table for him not to get the majority of the carries. It's not going to be a feature back system, though. I think we'll see about a 60/40 Clay to Brown split in snaps.
From what we're hearing Toon must be locking down a starting spot on the outside. Maybe the bigger question is who is the #1 receiver, Anderson or Gilreath. I'm sticking with Anderson, and keeping Gilreath as #3, which means lots of playing time. You have to like the flexibility you get with Graham and Kendricks (or Turner) in there. Two tight ends with traditional size and blocking ability, plus Toon's size for downfield blocking. Clay and Brown should love the opportunities they get on the ground. And with Brown in there, you're looking at a formation (the 2/2) that could run a power dive, or send 5 solid receivers into pass patterns. That can happen with both tight ends in, or Chryst can send Kendricks wide, as he has before, effectively giving the Badgers a 3/1 set with 2/2 personnel. Chryst obviously knows way more about all of this than I ever will, but I'm salivating at the possibilities.
No offense to Jones, Spitz, and Ewing, but based on the talent we have, I think you're looking at fewer downs with a fullback in the backfield. I think the sets we'll see the most from Chryst will be two tight ends, two wide receivers, or three wide receivers, 1 tight end, only one tailback. See 2005 (3/1 sets) and 2006 (no healthy fullbacks, lots of 2/2 sets). I'm also thinking that we'll see a Moss/Fletcher circa '93 type split of backfield duties. Brown is the better all-around back, but Clay just brings too much to the table for him not to get the majority of the carries. It's not going to be a feature back system, though. I think we'll see about a 60/40 Clay to Brown split in snaps.
From what we're hearing Toon must be locking down a starting spot on the outside. Maybe the bigger question is who is the #1 receiver, Anderson or Gilreath. I'm sticking with Anderson, and keeping Gilreath as #3, which means lots of playing time. You have to like the flexibility you get with Graham and Kendricks (or Turner) in there. Two tight ends with traditional size and blocking ability, plus Toon's size for downfield blocking. Clay and Brown should love the opportunities they get on the ground. And with Brown in there, you're looking at a formation (the 2/2) that could run a power dive, or send 5 solid receivers into pass patterns. That can happen with both tight ends in, or Chryst can send Kendricks wide, as he has before, effectively giving the Badgers a 3/1 set with 2/2 personnel. Chryst obviously knows way more about all of this than I ever will, but I'm salivating at the possibilities.
P.S. Konz practicing with the 1st team looks more and more like a ploy to get Oglesby practicing harder. Oglesby is your starting right tackle.
And then there's the quarterback issue. So anyway, here's how I see the starting lineup, depending on whether we're 3/1 or 2/2 WRs to TEs:
The Injury Bug: Depth Concerns
Bad news for senior outside linebacker Erik Prather. He suffered a knee injury that likely ended his hopes to play in 2009, his last year of eligibility. Last week defensive end Louis Nzegwu was lost for the Spring (MCL). Although he should return in the fall, missing that practice will hurt. Missing practice can't compare to missing his senior year, as Prather is now likely dealing with. Both losses are tough from a depth perspective, too.
At linebacker, Bielema said he plans to move Kevin Rouse to the outside to Prather's spot on the two-deep (behind McFadden), and move Leonard Hubbard, a redshirt freshman, into Rouse's spot at middle linebacker. That means that of the 6 linebackers in the two-deep, only four have played a down at the collegiate level. While the Badgers will have enough bodies with the true freshman coming in, we will be very short on experience.
Likewise, on the defensive line we were already looking at a nearly brand new crew. With Nzegwu' knee injury, Anthony Mains and Tyler Westphal need to step up. While Nzegwu should be back in the fall, the Badgers can't afford to be thin at end. Like the linebacking corps, the incoming freshman will provide the bodies, but not the experience we need.
Here's how I project the two-deep on defense for the Spring (number corresponds to year eligibility, 4 is max; * is a 4-star recruit):
At linebacker, Bielema said he plans to move Kevin Rouse to the outside to Prather's spot on the two-deep (behind McFadden), and move Leonard Hubbard, a redshirt freshman, into Rouse's spot at middle linebacker. That means that of the 6 linebackers in the two-deep, only four have played a down at the collegiate level. While the Badgers will have enough bodies with the true freshman coming in, we will be very short on experience.
Likewise, on the defensive line we were already looking at a nearly brand new crew. With Nzegwu' knee injury, Anthony Mains and Tyler Westphal need to step up. While Nzegwu should be back in the fall, the Badgers can't afford to be thin at end. Like the linebacking corps, the incoming freshman will provide the bodies, but not the experience we need.
Here's how I project the two-deep on defense for the Spring (number corresponds to year eligibility, 4 is max; * is a 4-star recruit):
Flexibility and the Pro Style Offense
I have said before that Wisconsin's offense (under Chryst) resembles Notre Dame's offense (under Weis), but with key personnel differences. Whereas Notre Dame has top-end quarterback talent, the Badgers have relied on a punishing rushing attack. Or at least so goes the theory. The Blue-Gray Sky, an excellent Notre Dame football blog, just published an expose of at least one of the problems with the Notre Dame offense, here.
You'll note their discussion of the packages Notre Dame runs; they look a lot like the ones we run. The three biggest under Weis have been: (1) 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 RB; (2) 2 WR, 2 TE, 1 RB; and (3) 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 RB, 1 FB. Same as us. Now this is no great revelation; those are your traditional pro sets.
The big problem BGS identifies with Notre Dame's offensive production is predictability. Sound familiar? In their case, losing the ability to field two-tight end sets made them much more predictable. Especially because no one respected their run game. That should sound familiar, too, if an inverse of our problem last year. Injuries limited our ability to field the two-tight end set, no one respected our passing game. As a result we were very predictable. The key isn’t necessarily the two-tight end set; it’s flexibility, but the two-tight end set helps create flexibility.
Oddly, 2005 may have been the panacea for both teams' offenses. The Irish had Quinn going to Stovall and Samardzija, along with Fasano at tight end and Darius Walker as the running back. All of those guys are pro athletes now (Samardzija is a Cub, but the rest are in the League, as are several of their lineman). It was a good year for the Badgers, too, with Stocco, Williams and Orr, Daniels, and Calhoun. A step down in talent at QB and WR, but pretty solid players. And what did both offenses have? Flexibility. Quality receiving threats, including at TE, quality running backs, and quality quarterbacks running the show. Just like Notre Dame, in 2005 we were versatile. Stocco threw the ball 46% of the time on first down.[i] When Stocco was dealing with 9 new starters on the offense, in 2006,[ii] he was down to passing only 40% of the time on first down.
There's another piece, hinted at above: other than the quarterback, who's on the field? From '05 to '06, Stocco lost all of his "skill position" players. Not surprisingly, even with a quality quarterback, Chryst got a little more conservative, and went to the running game a little more often, and in the passing game, it was all tight ends, all the time. Well, almost. Of the 53 passing plays I could identify the receiver, 51% were to tight ends (Beckum and Crooks), 47% to WRs (Hubbard and Swan; only 3 to backs). Contrast that with '05, when Stocco went to his receivers 57% of the time, and his other throws were evenly divided between his backs (mostly Calhoun) and his tight ends (mostly Daniels).
Moving on to 2007, Donovan is under center, and the other skill players are the same: Hubbard, Swan, Beckum, Graham (Crooks was injured most of the season) and Hill. On first down?[iii] Passing 41% of the time; about the same as Stocco with the same lineup. And Donovan's targets overall? 49% tight ends, only 41% to the receivers. The remaining 10% went to backs. Not surprising that Chryst would have a first year starter throwing more to check downs than Stocco, a three-year starter.
And then we get to 2008. Not unlike the Irish in 2008, there was only one thing we could do well: run the ball (ND couldn’t do that; they passed the ball well). Our tight ends were dinged up and our down field threat was, let’s say . . . limited. So, on first down Evridge passes only 25% of the time, and Sherer only passed 23% of the time.[iv] That’s awfully one-dimensional.
Where did the 2008 passing plays go? Evridge threw to his tight ends (54%) and his backs (9%), with just 37% of his throws to wide receivers. Sherer, in contrast, found his receivers (53%) and his tight ends 43%, with only two throws to his backs (4%). For both, a tight end was the leading receiver (Beckum, then Graham, respectively; injuries to both playing a role), but Sherer spread the ball around more to his receivers.[v] Regardless of who was catching the ball, the Badgers relied too much on the run. The lack of flexibility translated to predictability.
Which leads us to Spring 2009. Coming back to the offense may be a better set of weapons than we had in 2005. At tailback we have the punishing Clay (more fleet of foot than Hill, by a fair margin), “all-around” Zach Brown, and either Erik Smith or Montee Ball (when he matriculates in the Fall). The wide receivers are likely led by Isaac Anderson, but Nick Toon has been flashing his skills of late, David Gilreath is a big-play threat, and Kyle Jefferson isn’t far behind Toon. With Garrett Graham back along with Mickey Turner and H-backish Lance Kendricks, we’re well stocked at tight end. That’s a lot of skill on the offense by Badger football standards.
That leaves the same gaping question: the quarterback.
And that leads me back to Sherer vs. Phillips and Budmayr. We need someone who can manage a complex offense. As much as Budmayr may be a future star, a true freshman with one Spring camp under his belt, isn’t likely to do it. Not unless we want a repeat of last year’s single dimensional offense. So, Phillips and Sherer.[vi] It doesn’t come down to who throws the better spiral or who has the bigger cannon for an arm. It’s the guy that can best spread it around. He needs to understand the variety in the offense, and he needs to get the ball there.
As Bielema said the other day, Sherer has a clear advantage in understanding the offense. 2009 will be his 5th season with the Chyrst playbook vs. Phillips’s second (and last season Phillips was mostly running the scout team). That means Phillips has to be that much better than Sherer at getting the ball to his receivers.[vii] Can he be? I’d say it’s a tough hill to climb.
At this point, I’d say the odds should be on Sherer, and the fans should be happy about it. He’s already shown that he’s capable of spreading the ball around. If he can lock down a little more throwing consistency, he could be a solid game manager. And that’s all we really need to return flexibility to the Badger offense.
And two-tight end sets.
[i] Evaluating three competitive games in ’05:
[ii] Against
[iii] Against
[iv] When not in the 2-minute drill. Evridge is against
[v] Keeping in mind that these statistics are just from two competitive games, it’s tough to extrapolate too much, but in those games Sherer found Graham 14 times,
This isn’t entirely fair to Evridge. With two healthy tight ends, against
[vi] It’s unfair that I’m not including Tolzien, but I have yet to see a report that indicates he’s a serious contender to start.
[vii] Phillips’ running ability is nice, but we have capable backs and we don’t run a spread option.
Notes from Bielema
Coach Bielema gave an enlightening interview to the Big Ten Network, below. Some things of note:
(1) Sherer is in the lead. He says so specifically. Something I noticed about the quarterback discussion in 2007 and 2008? Bielema and Chryst both gave direct answers that were prescient about who would start. With Donovan, he had an understanding of the playbook and toughness, whereas Evridge needed more consistency. Then with Evridge it was experience, but everyone needed to be more consistent (then experience wasn't getting it done). All of that was absolutely true.
Bielema's doing the same things. (1) Sherer has the "upper hand" and has taken a big step forward this Spring. (2) Notice the paucity of remarks about Phillips. The only thing he says is that the Spring start last year helped him; nothing about what he's doing right. (3) Tolzein does certain things well, but isn't flexible: i.e., doesn't read defenses, breakdowns well. (4) Budmayr? Looks good. Seriously, we aren't starting a true freshman.
Bielema tells us what he's thinking, really. I'll be moderately surprised if Sherer isn't the starter in the fall.
Some other things? He was more positive about Clay than Settle was a week ago. Still, expect Brown to get around 40% of the carries. He's more versatile, and Clay's size won't allow him to take many more than 60% of the carries.
Oglesby vs. Konz? This is the big battle that's suprising folks (Bscherer is firmly planted at guard). A by-line in an article in the Journal Sentinel, and now Bielema's comments to BTN? Ok, maybe. Taking a wild guess, the coaches think Oglesby isn't working hard enough and they're pushing him to work harder. As long as he responds, he's still the right tackle.
There's been a lot of emphasis on the change in the conditioning program. I like big, strong football players. What I'm hoping is that we have a defense that isn't gassed in the second half. That's been a consistent theme over the years under Bielema. It needs to end.
The team is practicing turnovers. That's a good thing. It was a major problem last season, so I'm happy to hear the coaching staff is addressing it.
Finally, no more weakside or strongside linebackers. Like the safeties and also the ends, the defense will be playing left and right, not strong and weak. Apparently this is part of the recognition of how things need to change to defend the spread.
Here's the interview:
(1) Sherer is in the lead. He says so specifically. Something I noticed about the quarterback discussion in 2007 and 2008? Bielema and Chryst both gave direct answers that were prescient about who would start. With Donovan, he had an understanding of the playbook and toughness, whereas Evridge needed more consistency. Then with Evridge it was experience, but everyone needed to be more consistent (then experience wasn't getting it done). All of that was absolutely true.
Bielema's doing the same things. (1) Sherer has the "upper hand" and has taken a big step forward this Spring. (2) Notice the paucity of remarks about Phillips. The only thing he says is that the Spring start last year helped him; nothing about what he's doing right. (3) Tolzein does certain things well, but isn't flexible: i.e., doesn't read defenses, breakdowns well. (4) Budmayr? Looks good. Seriously, we aren't starting a true freshman.
Bielema tells us what he's thinking, really. I'll be moderately surprised if Sherer isn't the starter in the fall.
Some other things? He was more positive about Clay than Settle was a week ago. Still, expect Brown to get around 40% of the carries. He's more versatile, and Clay's size won't allow him to take many more than 60% of the carries.
Oglesby vs. Konz? This is the big battle that's suprising folks (Bscherer is firmly planted at guard). A by-line in an article in the Journal Sentinel, and now Bielema's comments to BTN? Ok, maybe. Taking a wild guess, the coaches think Oglesby isn't working hard enough and they're pushing him to work harder. As long as he responds, he's still the right tackle.
There's been a lot of emphasis on the change in the conditioning program. I like big, strong football players. What I'm hoping is that we have a defense that isn't gassed in the second half. That's been a consistent theme over the years under Bielema. It needs to end.
The team is practicing turnovers. That's a good thing. It was a major problem last season, so I'm happy to hear the coaching staff is addressing it.
Finally, no more weakside or strongside linebackers. Like the safeties and also the ends, the defense will be playing left and right, not strong and weak. Apparently this is part of the recognition of how things need to change to defend the spread.
Here's the interview:
Rolling Along Through Spring Practice
First, tracking Potrykus's comments, I'm sticking with my obscenely early snap decision that Sherer will be the starter. And I'm ok with that.
The Sentinel's (unattributed, but got to believe it's Potrykus's) latest practice report has some good info in it. From the sound of things, expect Toon as a starting wide receiver. It's good to hear that Jefferson is doing something to reduce his exposure to further concussions, but with the solid reports Toon is getting, I'm assuming he'll be the first on the field (with Anderson). As I said the other day, I think 3 WRs will be a pretty common set for the Badgers, with a TE rather than a fullback. That's where Gilreath will come in, I think. On the other hand, with Mickey Turner flashing some skills in practice, Chryst may have a tough decision whether to go that way, or two tight ends, which might give him as many weapons receiving, and better versatility running. Either way, don't expect to see our new fullbacks (Jones, Ewing, and Spitz) on the field as often as you saw Pressley and Rentmeester last season.
Two more notes from the report: it sounds like the DBs are playing pretty well (also here), and Pat Hughes, a walk-on, will be the back-up kicker with Fischer off to Cornell (Potrykus asks Bielema about it on video; also an interesting discussion of the DBs, including focus on Otis Merrill who remains buried in the depth chart).
Speaking of the secondary, another note from the JS gives a little background on the Shane Carter "incident" that kept him out of the bowl (not academics, as I previously misstated). Also, Potrykus reiterates what Coach Cooks said last week, that the safeties will play one side and the other, but not a traditional strong and free safety. In the back of my head that worries me a little re Valai, who's height might be a liability in a free safety-type role -- on the other hand, it's probably a liability no matter what. Despite that, he got consistently better last year, and I expect will do the same this year.
JJ Watt sounds like the real deal at DT. I remain not terribly concerned about the d-line.
Badgerbeat reiterates what Coach Settle had to say about John Clay: lose weight, understand the playbook. Clay has been up around 250, but needs to get to 240, preferably a little lower than that. I've got to believe Clay will stay at #1 on the depth chart, but if he doesn't get a better handle on the playbook, we'll see more of Zach Brown. Not a bad thing. Zach can play.
The Sentinel's (unattributed, but got to believe it's Potrykus's) latest practice report has some good info in it. From the sound of things, expect Toon as a starting wide receiver. It's good to hear that Jefferson is doing something to reduce his exposure to further concussions, but with the solid reports Toon is getting, I'm assuming he'll be the first on the field (with Anderson). As I said the other day, I think 3 WRs will be a pretty common set for the Badgers, with a TE rather than a fullback. That's where Gilreath will come in, I think. On the other hand, with Mickey Turner flashing some skills in practice, Chryst may have a tough decision whether to go that way, or two tight ends, which might give him as many weapons receiving, and better versatility running. Either way, don't expect to see our new fullbacks (Jones, Ewing, and Spitz) on the field as often as you saw Pressley and Rentmeester last season.
Two more notes from the report: it sounds like the DBs are playing pretty well (also here), and Pat Hughes, a walk-on, will be the back-up kicker with Fischer off to Cornell (Potrykus asks Bielema about it on video; also an interesting discussion of the DBs, including focus on Otis Merrill who remains buried in the depth chart).
Speaking of the secondary, another note from the JS gives a little background on the Shane Carter "incident" that kept him out of the bowl (not academics, as I previously misstated). Also, Potrykus reiterates what Coach Cooks said last week, that the safeties will play one side and the other, but not a traditional strong and free safety. In the back of my head that worries me a little re Valai, who's height might be a liability in a free safety-type role -- on the other hand, it's probably a liability no matter what. Despite that, he got consistently better last year, and I expect will do the same this year.
JJ Watt sounds like the real deal at DT. I remain not terribly concerned about the d-line.
Badgerbeat reiterates what Coach Settle had to say about John Clay: lose weight, understand the playbook. Clay has been up around 250, but needs to get to 240, preferably a little lower than that. I've got to believe Clay will stay at #1 on the depth chart, but if he doesn't get a better handle on the playbook, we'll see more of Zach Brown. Not a bad thing. Zach can play.
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