Through Rose [Bowl] Colored Glasses: Iowa

National Champs, right? I mean, it's Iowa and we're asking Iowa fans to weigh in . . . Ok, that's not [entirely] fair, but the Hawkeyes do have a reputation for being overly bullish. This year Iowa loses Shonn Greene (who the Badgers turned into a superstar last season), but they return an offensive line that might make me, at 35 and never playing a down of organized football, a Heisman candidate. So, is this the 3rd act of the Kirk Ferentz story at Iowa? The one where he defies the firekirkferentz.com crowd and wins that elusive title (Big Ten or better)? Here's opinion from one emminently reasonable Iowa fan and blogger, Fight for Iowa (we had this exchange a little while ago, so I've added some updates where appropriate):

(1) No Shonn Greene, and now word is Jewel Hampton may have a bum knee . . . who's going to carry the rock, and how good will he be? Does it even matter, or would I go over 100 yards per game behind that line? Is there anything at all that you worry about regarding the offensive line?

This has been all the buzz the last couple of days. The severity of Hampton's injury isn't known yet, but it is expected that he'll miss time [ed. update: Hampton is a go]. Now, Kirk Ferentz likes his experienced backs that know the offense and don't fumble. But, really there is nobody proven to be all those things at runningback. The most experienced player is Paki O'Meara, who will be serviceable if necessary, and could start the season at #1, but I expected Jeff Brinson to be the permanent starter once the season starts rolling on. Brinson was recruited by the likes for Florida and put up huge numbers in high school. By all accounts he's just as good if not better than Hampton and would have got the #2 spot last year if it weren't for ono/asthma/something issues. Also, there is incoming freshman Brandon Wegher, who also put up huge numbers in high school. He's got a lot of hype around him and is very quick. If he can pick up the offense I think he'll be the #2 back.

Oh the offensive line...if you would have asked me a month or so ago I would have been very confident that Iowa has the best o-line in the conference. However, Julian Vandervelde has an injury and will at least miss a few games. And Kyle Calloway is suspended for at least a game [ed. note: 1 game] for his drunken moped ride. So, I am not quite as confident. The line should still be good as there is tons of experience on the inside and Bryan Bulaga is a beast at tackle. Once Calloway and Vandervelde are back in the line up and the line has a chance to meld, then watch out...that line will be good.

(2) Stanzi has to be the man, right? Without Greene, can he be? It seems like Iowa always has a solid tight end, is Moeaki ready to be that guy? Is the Badger-like stereotype accurate that Iowa doesn't throw the ball unless absolutely necessary?

Stanzi is the Manzi, as they like to say. I think he'll have a good year. He definitely had his moments last year, good and bad. If he can limit the number of turnovers, then he'll be successful. He is accurate enough, mobile enough, and smart enough to lead this offense to lots of yards and points. And, yeah, he'll get his chances. Iowa is definitely a run first team, but Ken O'Keefe and Kirk Ferentz love the play action pass. A fake hand-off, then roll out by Stanzi...this play works really well for Stanzi. He is better on the move than in the pocket and can pull it down and run if necessary.

Tony Moeaki should be ready this year. He's hopefully over all his injuries and will be the starter. When healthy he has consistently produced and Iowa knows how to use their tight ends. Allen Reisner is also good at tight end and saw a lot of time last year while Moeaki was out.

(3) With the new defensive tackles, is there any hope for the opposition to run up the gut? What's the weakness of this defense?

The defensive tackle is definitely the most inexperience part of the defense. The two tackles will be Karl Klug and Mike Daniels. While they won't be King and Kroul (obviously) they should be just fine. Klug was the B10 Defensive Player of the Week way back in week 2 and made some huge plays against PSU last year. Daniels should be okay too. He's on the small side, but quick and should be able to make some plays in the backfield. Though the tackles are relatively inexperienced, the defensive ends will be the anchors of this line. Adrian Clayborn and Christian Ballard are a very good duo at defensive end. Though their numbers are not as flashy as some of the other ends in the conference they make a lot of big plays. Both have the size to move inside and play tackle and there is a lot more depth at end, especially with Broderick Binns. So look for Clayborn to line up at tackle next to Klug with Binns and Ballard on the outside in passing situations.

(4) I'll be honest, last year's Iowa team is a puzzle. I know, you guys could've been unbeaten on the basis of about 4 plays, but the results were still erratic: Pittsburgh, Northwestern, and Michigan State just weren't world beaters. They were decent teams that didn't give up much for free (although Pittsburgh did from time to time). The loss to Illinois and the home struggle against an awful Purdue team were puzzling, to say the least. It isn't as though those two teams had great run defenses. So Iowa beat one team that finished the season ranked, and that was at home (though to be fair, the win over Penn State was huge), and only played one other team that finished ranked (MSU, at #24). This season the schedule looks a lot rougher with Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan State, and Wisconsin on the road (on paper we don't deserve mentioning with those first three). What was the story last season, and what do you make of your chances in 2009? Is CFN right to call you a "deep sleeper in the championship chase?"

Bad turnovers cost us in our 4 losses. Northwestern was a nightmare...5 turnovers and still only lose by 5. Michigan State and Illinois were more of the same (not as many turnovers, but very costly ones). And, you can blame the Pitt game on the quarterback controversy. Heck, maybe blame the Northwestern game and MSU game on that too. It took Stanzi a few games to hit his rhythm and get the turnover bug out of his system. And he hadn't really figured out yet how to win the close game. Against both Northwestern and Michigan State, Iowa drove down the field with a chance to win, but couldn't get it done.

But on to this upcoming year. I'd say a "deep sleeper" is a fair assessment. In contrast to the difficult road schedule, the home schedule is fairly easy. It's very conceivable Iowa could for 7-0 at Kinnick which is a good start to have a championship type season. Now, I think Iowa goes 2-2 on the road in the Big Ten, but I'll give you reasons why Iowa could win each game.

PSU - Iowa is lucky to get Penn State early in the year. They lost all their receivers and all of their secondary, so may still be a little green there in the 4th week. Though it is a revenge game, at night, and will be a White Out, Iowa under Ferentz has had Penn State's number (6-2).

MSU - Michigan State and Iowa are very similar teams this year. Both lose a start running back and both have tons back on defense. The differences are, Iowa returns its quarterback, and Iowa's returners on defense are good, while Michigan State's are mediocre.

Wisconsin - You know more about Wisconsin than me, but Iowa matches up very well defensively against a power run team like Wisconsin. Also, from what I've read the Badgers have a lot to replace among both lines.

OSU - Well...it's much harder to make a case against Ohio State. Iowa hasn't won in Columbus in forever [since 1991]. But the Buckeyes only return 5 guys on offense and lose two stud linebackers in James Laurinaitis and Marcus Freeman.

(5) 2002-04 was a great run, and after a decade at the helm, Ferentz has Iowa fifth in the Big Ten in winning percentage, but ten points back from #3 Wisconsin, and five back from #4 Penn State (67%, 62%, and 57%, respectively; ranking is the same, but it's closer counting only Big Ten games) and no Rose Bowls (1 BCS bowl). Is that really good enough? Did last season take Ferentz off the hot-seat, or would an 8-4 year with as many arrests as wins kick-start firekirkferentz.com?

I think Ferentz is off of the hot seat. And 8-4 seasons will be good enough to keep him in Iowa as long as he wants to be. Yeah, arrests have been a problem...but I think it's just the media that blame Ferentz. It's been said before many time, but Ferentz has done a lot with very little. He has developed players better than just about anyone and it seems like this year at least recruiting has been going better. Realistically for Iowa, fans will be happy with a bowl game every year, with a Big Ten Title every 6-7 years.

(6) The university -- and the state -- is named for the woodsman Hawkeye from the Last of the Mohicans. How did he get to Iowa, and what made him stick as the mascot?

Wow...that's a tough questions. You're making me do research! From what I can gather, the state of Iowa originally took on the moniker the "Hawkeye State" in a tribute to the great Chief Black Hawk of the Sac Native American tribe. The University of Iowa, liked the name made a connection with the popularity of the character Hawkeye from the books, so the name stuck. Iowa's mascot is really Herky the Hawk. Though, Herky didn't come around until later. He made his first appearance at a football game in 1959.

(7) I've heard Kinnick can be a great road trip, but there's no love loss between our fan bases and some Badgers I know report some unfortunate incidents in Iowa City. Badger and Gopher fans think Iowa fans always think Iowa a national title contender, regardless of what's happening on the field, and that Ferentz is doing his best to rename the Fulmer Cup. Why is that wrong, and what is the Hawkeye take on Badger fans? I was in Madison for the Iowa game in 2007 and it seemed like everyone got along fine, even with the alcohol-fueled night start. What do you expect in Madison this time around?

We Hawkeye fans got spoiled a little bit in 2002-2004 ['02 Co-B10 champs with national champ OSU, Orange Bowl, '03 Outback victory over Florida, '04 one heck of a Capital One victory over LSU]. Three years like that in a row! That was great. So yeah, so people got a little carried away and expected years like that every year. But realistically there are very few teams that can compete on that level year in and year out and I think most Hawkeye fans understand that. I think the common conception of Badger fans is that they are rowdy, but I don't know. Nothing too bad. Maybe I'm too nice to have bad thoughts about Badger fans. I've never been to Madison but I've heard the atmosphere is great. Game-wise, I expect a closer game than last year's Shonn Greene highlight reel.

(8) I know, Bielema has a Hawkeye tattoo. What clever thing do you want to say about it?

Does the tigerhawk tattoo really bug Badger fans? That would be great if it did. I am assuming the tattoo is really some kind of telekinetic portal into the minds of the Iowa coaches that Bielema uses to find out which recruits Iowa is offering, so that he can swoop in and do the same.

Through Rose [Bowl] Colored Glasses: Michigan State

At the Big Ten Media days the coaches predicted Michigan State will come in 3rd in conference. In year three of Dantonio that isn’t a stretch. Sparty comes to Madison to kick off the Big Ten season and they hope a run for the Roses. Through Rose Bowl colored glasses? Sparty faithful hope so, and may not be delusional . . . though certainly optimistic. The bloggers at SpartyMSU and the Enlightened Spartan answered my questions to let us know what to expect on September 26.

1) Who's your quarterback?

Sparty MSU: The good thing for MSU is that we have 2 good QBs Kirk Cousins and Keith Nichol, and in the wings four star recruit Andrew Maxwell and Stud recruit Joe Boisture .. but at this point I think Kirk Cousins will lead the team on the field. Last year he was behind Brian Hoyer and had stats of 32-43-1 for a 74.4% comp rate. This spring I thought both QBs look sharp. I’m not too worried about the QB position…

Enlightened Spartan: 1) Actually, it really doesn't matter who our quarterbacks are, they equally shined and probably had the best Spring ball out of quarterbacks in recent memory. Both Keith Nichol and Kirk Cousins are mobile and have strong arms. Each are an improvement over our serviceable, but efficient, QB Brian Hoyer .

2) Who's your running back? And is your offensive line good enough to make them look
decent? Word from the Spring Game is they were a little porous. What on earth should we
expect from your offense?

SpartyMSU: For the spring game, as any spring game Lines go at half speed, and the
Spartans have been working on diversification of the offense. 2008 it was the Javon Ringer
show. He was good, why not go with your strengths. This year our backs are strong, talented,
but no Javon. So, we have to work in the passing game. And that’s what happened. Look at
the Spring Stats: 357 yards passing for both Green and the White team. Which was over
87% of the total offense for both teams, and they ran only 18 rushes each side. But for
passing the QBs were 29 for 43 (Kirk) and 20 – 28 (Keith).

Running backs will be Ashton Leggett, Andre Anderson, Caulton Ray and/or A.J.
Jimmerson. I think Leggett and Ray might start, but with a range of backups, they might
platoon.

Bottom line, the ball will be in the air more this year than last.

Enlightened Spartan: Our running backs can use some work, and I've never been sold on senior AJ Jimmerson -- so it will likely be a running back-by-committee (Ashton Leggett, Andre Anderson, Caulton Ray) and you may likely see true frosh blue chippers Ed Baker or Larry Caper get the pigskin plenty this fall. Offensive line actually might be the best its been under Dantonio -- they were piss poor last year and didn't reach its potential despite two big seniors on the line: case in point was the team's 3.4 yards per carry a year ago despite the workhorse, Javon Ringer. Our wideouts need to wipe the butter off their hands and hold onto the ball this year... but have lots of experience returning (Mark Dell, Blair White, BJ Cunningham, and Charlie Gantt all should be improved). The o-line can only improve, and Joel Nitchman, Rocco Cironi, and Joel Foreman have plenty of PT (and better footwork) to make this an improved unit. Bottom line: expect an evenly balanced offense in 2009, a far cry from the 3-yards-and-a-cloud-of-Ringer offense last year. I expect we will be a little more efficient, in all honesty. Mark Dell may be the most improved player in the Big Ten and may rack up big-time stats behind our great QBs and a more balanced offense; he was injury plauged for most of the second half of 2008.


3) Dantonio seems to have righted the attitude issues in East Lansing. He took his first year's close losses to quality teams and turned them into close wins in his second season. He seems to get the most out of his players. However, since Michigan State last played in the Rose Bowl every team in the Big Ten except Indiana and Minnesota has made the trip. Is this the year that Michigan State makes their triumphant return (skipping Ohio State and getting Penn State and Iowa at home is a plus), or are the Spartans still a year or two away?

SpartyMSU: Can’t put the cart before the horse. Sure, all Spartans are keenly aware of the painful eons its been since we made a trip to Pasadena. But, we will return. With so much mediocre history behind us, no one in the program wants to rush in for a One and Done type of season. We are all on board for a long term rise with staying power. We want to get back to the Rose Bowl, its been since 1988 (when we beat USC 20 – 17), I still have a rose on my bedroom mirror as a daily reminder .. but, we are all behind Coach D, and have backed his long term approach. If we get to the Rose Bowl this year, We’ll take it.

Bottom Line: SpartyMSU has predicted it, so I’m packing my Bag and have Hotel reservations !

Enlightened Spartan: MSU seems to be a year away, but is improving across the board, in ALL areas of the team. I think we all should take a closer look at Dantonio's recipe... teach sound fundamental football (reduce turnovers), add in your typical, Pro Set offense to reduce spread-offense mistakes (three things can happen when you throw the football, and two are bad), add more fundamentals (reduce penalties), move to a bare-knuckles defense instead of a stunt defense, add more fundamentals (play to your position) and what do you get? A focus on defense with a minimal mistake offense, that plays games to the end. Dantonio is all about letting the other team make the mistakes as the game wears on, call their bluff, take advantage, and win on fundamentals. Results are improving as the cupboard becomes stocked with better talent.

While I'm not a believer in the recruiting services per se (eg, Keith Nichol helped Oklahoma to a Rivals-ranked Top 5 recruiting class, and now he plays for MSU), I believe you can get an IMPRESSION from them -- and the impression is that the Spartans are gaining better talent and more players who care about character & values to campus to play football. While Greg Jones is already emblematic of this on defense, you should really begin to see much more of this on the playing field as depth across the team has really begun to set in.

So, are we are year away? Probably... as we have a ton of talent returning next year. but that football is a funny shape, and you never know what might happen.

(3) Holding Iowa to 13 points was impressive, but overall the MSU defense wasn't great, and got scorched by Penn State, Ohio State, and dinged up pretty badly at Cal, too. What will make them better this season? Just how good is Greg Jones, and who else will shine for MSU?

SpartyMSU: No one in the Big Ten was as good as OSU or PSU last year, period. They were the cream of the Big Ten.. But to say the D wasn’t that great, well… ok. Not great, but we were good and better than most others in the Big Ten. We did end up in third place in the Big Ten.

Lets roll back the video Tape: MSU wasn’t First in “D”, just had middle of the road in “D” stats for 2008, MSU was # 5 in total “D” in the Big Ten in 2008, #1 in Red Zone “D”. #1 in fourth down conv. “D”. In terms of Big Ten leading tacklers, MSU had the #3 (Greg Jones), #13, #15. Of the top 15 tacklers in the Big Ten, only NU had more than 1 player, with only two. Spartans had three. And of those three, two return.

As for this season, we only get better on “D”…. 9 out of the 12 top MSU tacklers return. The D Line lost 2 starters, but are back filling with existing experienced players. LBs: Starters return. For Secondary, we lost stud Otis Wiley, but 75% of the ints. come back to the field this year, and everyone has starting experience. IN 2009, behind the “D” line, we only added depth this year.

Enlightened Spartan: I would argue the MSU defense was pretty good last year -- depends on how you define as "good." It was called on in some pretty tough situations (eg. Iowa, Wisconsin) to make big plays down the stretch when its offense, and Ringer's running, was anemic. Our wideouts dropped lots of passes last year. It was our defense that time and again bailed out MSU... at the end of games. That is Dantonio coaching, and it worked. The Spartans demonstrated that they weren't in the same league as JoePa or Ohio State -- and it showed. It's not all in the statistics -- and, we won 9 games, largely as a result of our defense, solid fundamentals, and superior coaching. Our defensive backfield has significant experience, size & speed, and is very deep.... reminds me of an Ohio State secondary. Our linebacking corps is the best we've had in 15 years, (ranked #7 nationally by Phil Steele, with Greg Jones, Eric Gordon, Adam Decker, and Josh Rouse. Lots of depth and experience here. Watch out for Trevor Anderson on the Dline, who may end up leading the Big Ten in sacks. Dantonio's best defense yet... and the majority return for another year.

(4) Starting with the painful (for us) game in 2004, the home team has won the last four games in this series, but the last two were very close; what do you think will be different this year that the Spartans will leave Madison with a win?

SpartyMSU: Please see my posting: Preview - Spartans 2009 Game 4: Wisconsin [ed. note: not sure where Sparty got the lyric sheet for On Wisconsin, but he may want to check that again.]

Spartans win…[ed. note: big! SpartyMSU sees it 28-15] !

Enlightened Spartan: It won't be different. It will be very close again. Another FG game. Yes, we'll win. Your dumb coach will screw it up again, thank you very much.

(5) The Badgers start off with a painfully soft schedule. While yours isn't all-world, the road game in South Bend the week before your trip West won't be a cake-walk (not withstanding the impressive 6-straight road wins over the Irish). Do you see the Notre Dame game as a benefit to you coming into Madison, or will that longstanding, heated rivalry take some spirit (and maybe some healthy bodies) away from the Badger game?

SpartyMSU: Spartans LOVE this rivalry (see recent posting: Preview - Spartans 2009 Game 3: Notre Dame)

We have to take the Tom Izzo attitude: play anyone, any time, anywhere. Yeah, we might be a little banged up, but I think the Spartans will know more about the Spartans, then Wisconsin will have their own insight. Come on, what weenie schedule is this ? Northern Illinois, Fresno State, and WoofWoof ? Spartans come in to Camp Randall, and we are the first real slap in the face you’ll be getting. So, The Badgers will have it more difficult than MSU by Sept. 26.

Enlightened Spartan: Don't get sold on the Irish just yet, and their over-inflated ego of an offense that scortched June "Cheater" Jonesless-Hawaii in Hawaii (that is just a joke). We've whipped their panties 9 of the last 12. It'll happen again, right after their tilt of the "wanna-bes vs. used-to-bes," Michigan and Notre Dame. And, no it won't have any bearing heading into Madison. We need to kick yer tail to be in the Big Ten race.

(6) Speaking of which, who is worse, Joe Michigan Fan or Joe Notre Dame Fan?

SpartyMSU: Michigan fans suck. I can and do respect all teams and their fans in the Big Ten and other. But Michigan fans are dicks, and they cannot deal with any verbal jousting or competitive jocularity. I think it comes due to their low self esteem fan base, who truly base their own identity to the Team. Sad really, so sad. It’s the only team I get personal threats from.

Wisc, Illinois, Ind., Notre Dame, NU, etc. We all have a good time at each other’s tailgates. But, with Michigan, its different. Its down right mean. I try to stay away form Ann Arbor on Game days.

Enlightened Spartan: Oh, God, Joe "my UM football stadium addition costs as much as your entire UM football stadium" Michigan Fan.

(7) What should everyone know about Michigan State football that you find very few people actually do know?

SpartyMSU: The pregame team walk, and the tradition of flipping pennies at the Spartan stature before the game..

Enlightend Spartan: Michigan State's football team is the only Big Ten squad mentioned in the book, The Undefeated, by Jim Dent. The book is about University of Oklahoma, their coach Bud Wilkinson, and the longest winning streak in college football history (47 games during the 1950s). MSU is noted repeatedly as a powerhouse of the era.

Ed. Note: Sparty MSU will be in Mad-Town for the game, so welcome them with open arms, and offer them a consoling beer when it’s all over!

Media Days: Coach Speak

(1) I'm jealous of Adam Hoge, Badger blogger at Bucky's 5th Quarter. He's attending Big Ten Media Days, and is providing updates. Good on him. In addition to the convenience of living in Chicago and working at BTN, something tells me Adam is single and without kids. (As a 2008 grad, he's also young enough to have a handle on Twitter.) But maybe he's just better at multitasking than me. Anyway, I'm jealous.

(2) The live chat UW set up with Coach Bielema today was what one would expect: thin on substance. Nonetheless, I think he gave two comments we can learn from: (a) expect a lot of Lance Kendricks and Garrett Graham together (Q: "I thought Garrett Graham was kind of a breakout player last year. Can you give us one or two that you think might 'breakout' this season?" A: "I believe one offensive guy is Lance Kendricks. We really felt good about him last year going into the MSU game, but unfortunately broke his leg."); and (b) JJ Watt will play some tackle depending on the game situation (I predict passing downs) (Q: "If the opener were tomorrow, who would you anticipate being the starting front four defensivlely" You mentioned JJ Watt & I've read you like his cersatility, but will he start inside?" A: "I can name our top six: Schofield [DE], Watt, Moore [DT, some DE], Stehle [DT], Kelly [DE], and Butrym [DT]. It would probably be some combination of those four. J.J. is one of our d-lineman who can play inside or outside [Moore is the other] depending on game plan and the type of offense we are going against.")

Ok, so neither of these is earth shattering. I think everyone expects a lot of 2-tight end sets (I've only written about it somewhere in the neighborhood of 1000 times). But I was wondering about Watt. Originally I thought of him as an undersized tackle, but he's listed on the two-deep as a starting end. I think this clarifies that. He is probably the starting end (opposite Schofield), but may move inside from time to time. I'm guessing passing downs because guys like Kelly, Nzegwu, and Mains are pass-rush specialists (they have to be given their size). So you throw them in to rush the quarterback, but keep Watt in on the play as a solid penetrating tackle.

Pretty much the same story out of the opening address to the media today (video embedded below): three solid tight ends (with Turner playing some fullback, too); Kendricks looking to fill Beckum's H-back role, and effectively the same rundown on the defensive line. Combining the statement he made in the chat and the statement he made to the media, it's looking like: Watt, Moore (he pegged him as inside), Stehle, and Schofield.


Last thing: Bielema thinks the Badgers' success at home has hindered high profile home-and-home scheduling. Wouldn't surprise me. Generally scheduling is a tough thing to do, and our home record doesn't look too appealing to opposing teams with resumes similar to ours.

Don't have the interviews with Graham, McFadden, or Schofield up on the BTN yet, so I'm in the dark on those.

THE Priority

Dustin Sherer this, Curt Philips that, Jon Budmayr, maybe? It's all about the quarterback in Mad-town. Everyone knows that.

Wrong.

THE priority, THE problem with the Badgers is the defense. I just suffered through last year's "highlights." Sure, Evridge wasn't brilliant, and neither was Sherer (though he was a significant upgrade). Yeah, there were penalty problems and fumble problems (big penalty problems and big fumble problems). And with all that, the biggest problem I saw was with the defense. Check the numbers.

In the Big Ten, only Michigan State surrendered more points to Penn State than we did. Not Indiana, not Purdue, not Illinois.

Iowa only scored more than 24 points in conference three times; against Indiana (45), Minnesota (55), and Wisconsin (38). The only other teams they scored on more than us? FIU and Maine.

The 24 points we put up against Michigan State? That put us in good company, with Georgia (24), and only Penn State (49), Ohio State (45), Cal (38), and -- oddly -- Indiana (29) scored more. It was the 25 we gave up that was the problem.

We gave up 32 to Decker-less Minnesota. How many other conference teams let them in the 30s? None. They only got above 20 two other times in conference play.

We blew out Indiana, but not before letting them hang around with us, scoring 20 early. Only Michigan State (29) and Northwestern (21) allowed more in conference.

The 27 we allowed to Michigan? Including out-of-conference games (Utah, Miami-Ohio, Notre Dame, and Toledo), they only scored more against Purdue (42) and Minnesota (29; Michigan's only other conference win).

Oh, and Florida State's 42? They only scored more against Chattanooga (46) and Western Carolina (69).

The bottom line is in-conference while we were 5th in scoring, we were 9th in points allowed. When your conference is called the Big Ten, coming in 9th isn't so hot.

Now, let's recall how we started the year on defense:
Three 3+-year starters on the line. Two three-year starters at linebacker. A four-year starter at one corner (to be fair, Langford played his part very well all season), and Shane Carter, at safety, was supposed to be one of the team's best players, and one of two returning starting safeties (neither of whom ended up starting). This was basically the same defense that shut down Arkansas in the Capital One Bowl two years earlier and performed pretty well against Tennessee in the next Outback Bowl.

So what happened? Well, that Northwestern defense looked pretty good this season . . . with the Badgers' '06-'07 DC, Mike Hankwitz on the 'Cats sideline. I haven't given up on Dave Doeren after only one season, but the bottom line is his squad is the one that's most not living up to appropriate expectations. For better or worse he gets a clean slate this season . . .

Defense wins championships? Indeed.

Come on, Dave . . . we're counting on you . . .

Interesting Big Ten Preview

Here: http://www.columbiatribune.com/weblogs/behind-the-stripes/2009/jul/08/big-ten11-preview-joepa-rules/

First he tells us why the conference sucks. Well, it has been a down year or two, but lost in the statistics are the actual bowl match-ups. Michigan's win over Florida in '07 was big. Ohio State's game against Texas last season was much closer than it was supposed to be, and that was with a true-frosh quarterback. USC is USC. That's what the Rose Bowl will do to you sometimes.

On to his review: he seems less enamored of the Gophers than some others and highlights the same problem I see with Illinois: Juice just isn't that good. He also rags on Sherer, but (a) it's not without reason, and (b) I have a feeling the story will be different at the end of the year. I know the conventional wisdom is we come in 8th this season. I suspect it will be more like 3rd or 4th. And no, I'm not under the influence of anything . . . except maybe my new redshirt!

Like Barry Alvarez, a decent thing we took from Notre Dame.

Gopher Follow-Up

Something of a follow-up to the Minnesota chapter of Through Rose [Bowl] Colored Glasses, the good people over at the Daily Gopher posted their Wisconsin preview, with some replies I wrote as well as those from the good folks at Bucky's 5th Quarter.

Through Rose [Bowl] Colored Glasses: Ohio State

As I was writing my post-spring preview, complete with unrealistic game-by-game predictions, I thought about all the football fans out there right now impatiently waiting for the season to begin (especially now that baseball is the ONLY show in town) and hoping and believing that this year is their year. I decided to ask all of our opponents some questions about what to expect from their teams this year.

If we're really talking about Rose Bowl colored glasses, it only makes sense to start with the returning Big Ten champ, and unquestioned leader of the conference this decade, the Ohio State University.* The Badgers travel to Columbus on October 10. In the Tressel era, we're 2-1 in Columbus (0-1 in the Bielema era), and in the last decade we're 4-4 versus the Buckeyes (0-2 in the Bielema era). There's little doubt that the Buckeyes are the early favorite for yet another Big Ten title, so this is, as always, a big game for the Badgers (and hopefully for the Buckeyes).

Anyway, below is what our friend Vico, at a great Buckeye blog, Our Honor Defend, had to say about our visit to the 2009 Buckeyes (I've gotta agree: we should definitely bring the band!). You can see my effort to address his questions about Wisconsin at their blog.

without further ado . . .

Meet the Buckeyes

The Wisconsin Badgers come off as something of a non-conference opponent in the eyes of Buckeye fans. They were cycled off the Big Ten docket for all too important seasons in 2005 and 2006. As Tressel forged his own legacy independent of John Cooper, the Badgers were only a name in the Big Ten standings. Perhaps some of the unfamiliarity with the Badgers of late comes from the early dominance of the Badgers over Tressel. Tressel started off 1-3 against Alvarez, with a crushing blow delivered in 2003. Even with recent gains against Bielema, the Badgers are the only team over whom Tressel does not possess a winning record.

In 2009, the Badgers return to Columbus, where they even have a winning record against Tressel. Below, I take an early glimpse at this matchup, introducing Badgers fans to the Buckeyes we expect you will see in 2009.

Terrelle Pryor will be in his second year as a Buckeye. In most Buckeye fans view, he will be measurably better than he was as a true freshman. Mind you, Terrelle Pryor -- unlike Tim Tebow -- was not an early enrollee. He did not have extra time to work under the current coaching staff, only getting a condensed playbook from the coaching staff to look over in his Jeannette hometown while he prepared to enroll at Ohio State. He was also greatly distracted with high school basketball.

With an all-Big Ten grayshirt senior quarterback (Todd Boeckman) returning to the helm in 2008, Pryor was expected to be used in gimmick situations. A potent offense to be led by Boeckman was supposed to be made more dynamic by the introduction of Terrelle Pryor on gadget plays that ultimately required Pryor to be able to do only a few things as a true freshman. Consequently, the theme during the summer of 2008 was to not overload the freshman with the intricacies of the playbook. He was to be brought in principally as a run-first quarterback and an athlete that most defenses would not look forward to seeing. It was therefore disconcerting to all involved that Pryor had to be subbed in for Boeckman after the USC debacle. With an offensive line degenerating in front of our very eyes (more on that later), a quarterback that's able to scramble -- read: run for his life -- was necessary if the offense was to score any points. As a result, his deficiencies in the passing game were glaring.

Hope springs eternal that this will be corrected in a big way by time the Badgers, and even the Midshipmen, come to town. It almost has to improve by default. This is the longest that Pryor has had to work under a QB-oriented head coach, and he's already professing marked improvements in decision-making and ability to read coverages. Pryor's work ethic alone suggests a rapid improvement from his freshman form is inevitable, and remember: he was one of the Big Ten's most efficient quarterbacks as a true freshman. Elsewhere, Pryor has admitted that knowledge he's acquired in the past few months on how to read opposing defenses has probably been the area he's improved the most. In the same breath, he admitted an embarrassment that he wasn't able to see this as a true freshman. Still, in spite of the gains we expect in the passing department, making Terrelle Pryor throw will be the way most teams will probably approach beating the Buckeye offense. It's no secret that Ohio State relies on a run-first mentality to shorten down and distance.

Busting up the offensive line (more on that later) forces Pryor to throw in improbable situations for most QBs. At this point, Pryor's mechanics -- including an irregular delivery and a bad habit of relying on his upper body to power passes in the pocket (especially under pressure) -- will show.

Where Buckeye fans are not too thrilled about the prospect of Terrelle Pryor finding himself in third and long situations, they are thrilled about the prospect of a backfield that consists of Pryor and the post-Beanie back Dan "Boom" Herron. Herron's story resembles that of former Buckeye quarterback Joe Germaine. He was buried on the depth chart when he got to Columbus, but worked so hard and improved so much during his redshirt year that the coaching staff could not keep him off the field. Going from 4th string tailback to a productive, 2nd string tailback behind Beanie in 2008 is no small feat considering that a senior (Maurice Wells) and a highly-touted sophomore (Brandon Saine) started the summer ahead of him on the depth chart. His stiffarms won't be as lethal, and he won't be able to gain the big yards after contact that Beanie did. However, don't assume Ohio State's rushing attack will necessarily suffer for Beanie's absence, especially with Pryor in the backfield with him. I think Buckeye fans want to see Pryor lead the way more than they do Boom Herron, but Boom is going to get serious yards in 2009.

And now, as promised: the feature attraction. I argue that Ohio State's offensive line is the most important reason why the Buckeyes have suffered of late on the national stage. They returned their entire starting unit from 2007 and got WORSE in 2008. They were slow to pull and trap on running plays and cannot pick up the perimeter heat on the pass rush (see: USC, Purdue, Texas, and especially Penn State in 2008 alone). They could not even get a push on the line against the likes of Ohio University, Purdue and Northwestern. In the first two games, Ohio State's offensive line was the most important reason why the Buckeyes were trailing in the 4th quarter against the hapless Bobcats and why they could not score an offensive touchdown against Purdue. The Buckeyes routed Northwestern, but no part of that was attributable to stellar line play. In fact, Pryor and Beanie succeeded in pounding Northwestern in spite of the offensive line. The Buckeyes were at 3rd and 10 or longer repeatedly during that game, only to have Pryor pull a rabbit out of his hat to keep the offense going.

The natives are getting restless in Columbus, but we're hopeful that a new set of higher ceiling prospects can do the trick. Ohio State recruiting on the offensive line has been unfortunately awful for the years that mattered most. They recruited 50 percent less linemen overall than the past 5 national champions from the years 2003-2007 and over 60 percent less 4-5 stars during that time as well. This year's line should see some improvements, we hope. Michael Brewster and Mike Adams are both 5-star offensive linemen that are likely to start in 2009. Justin Boren was an all-Big Ten linemen for Michigan before infamously transferring to Ohio State. He will likely be the left guard in 2009. The right side of the line seems a little shaky because it involves position changes for two starters from 2008's unit. Bryant Browning -- the right tackle from 2008 who was more liability than lineman -- will be moving to right guard it seems. This should be an improvement from his position in 2008, as it became apparent against USC and Penn State that opposing defense identified him as the weakest link on the line and identified him as a man playing out of position. Jim Cordle, the starting center from 2008 who was moved to guard after an injury to another lineman, will again be moving: this time to right tackle. He has speed to spare on the line, so there's some optimism he'll be up to the task in 2009.

The consensus from Buckeye fans seems to be that the 2009 line, with so many new faces and unproven players, will actually be better than the 2008 line full of returning starters. The recent hire of Keith Uecker bodes well for further development as well. Run blocking should improve considerably. Justin Boren, a veritable road grader, will be a much welcomed leader on the line. However, pass protection remains a little hazy, and the inability for Mike Adams to assert himself as "the guy" to protect Pryor's blindside at left tackle lends itself to more nervous thoughts.

I'm not sure if you know this, but James Laurinaitis' father used to be a professional wrestler. If you did know, you will no longer have to be reminded of it since he and running mate Marcus Freeman have matriculated to the NFL. Looking ahead to 2009 following the Fiesta Bowl, I assumed that Ohio State would have a stable corp of 3 linebackers entering 2009. After watching the Spring Game, it's not quite clear what's going on. I would've expected Etienne Sabino, a highly touted true sophomore from Pryor's recruiting class, to have established himself as the middle linebacker. If anything, Tyler Moeller -- a sparsely used 5th year senior -- has emerged as a player in that unit to remember. If pressed for an immediate comparison, I'd liken Moeller's presence in the linebacker corp as equivalent to Brit Miller for the Illini in 2008. Yes, it's a preliminary association, but both have that unsung, unathletic appeal to them, and always find themselves close to the ball regardless.

A discussion over at my blog on the issue, here, puts a different spin on it. The Buckeyes are not lacking for options at linebacker for 2009. The wealth they have at the position may allow the defensive coaches to effectively "plug and play" contingent on the opposing offense, and not really lose a step for it. Against conventional, pro-style offenses like the one the Badgers will bring with them, the Buckeyes will "go big" and feature linebackers like Ross Homan, Austin Spitler and Tyler Moeller. Homan was the weakside linebacker in 2008. Against, smaller, faster spread offenses, the Buckeyes can sub in Etienne Sabino and Brian Rolle, matching speed with speed. If leadership at the position may be absent (at least immediately) because of the wealth of options and absence of mainstay Laurinaitis, the Buckeyes have the advantage of being flexible.

With so many new faces in 2009, and a veritable youth movement going on in the football program in general, there is no shortage of possible players to recommend Badger fans to write down for future reference. If Ohio State is to repeat as Big Ten champion again, several players need to step up. Justin Boren and Michael Brewster will have to lead the way on the line. Boren has the experience and Brewster is an unofficial leader of his 2008 class, members of which will feature prominently in the 2009 offense. DeVier Posey, a close confidante of Terrelle Pryor through the recruiting process and himself another 2008 signee, will have to be on the same page with Terrelle. Similarly, slot receiver Dane Sanzenbacher, arguably Pryor's favorite target in 2008, will have to prove himself durable during the season since his backup, Lamaar Thomas (another 2008 signee), doesn't seem to have made the transition from tailback to college wideout just yet. Maybe the biggest factor will be the defensive line. The defensive line will unquestionably be the strength of the defense in 2009, and Thaddeus Gibson has dedicated himself to destroy everything moving in 2009.

The performance of the defensive line in 2009 becomes even more important considering the uncertainty at linebacker and the admission of most Buckeye fans that the secondary will be our achilles heel in 2009. In the secondary, Ohio State returns its two safeties, but loses both corners. Chimdi Chekwa seems to be a lock to secure one of the spots vacated by Malcolm Jenkins and Donald Washington, but his iffy performance in the Spring Game does not inspire confidence. Beyond Chekwa, there are even more question marks. RS freshman Travis Howard, Devon Torrence and Andre Amos are in the discussion for the other spot. However, both Howard and Amos have noticeable injury histories and Torrence has devoted a lot of time playing minor league baseball. Beyond those three lay even more freshmen and worst case scenarios.

Another pursuit at a national title is always nice, but the performance of these players is necessary to securing a January bowl game. Of those players, keep Thaddeus Gibson in mind. Buckeye fans think his offseason improvements should result in 1st Team All-Big Ten honors.

As previously mentioned, the Badgers are the only team against whom Tressel does not have a winning record. Tied 3-3 in the Tressel era, I think many Buckeye fans are expecting this to be the year where Ohio State has a winning record against all Big Ten teams in the Tressel era. Bielema's performance of late does not inspire the sense of fear and trembling that Buckeye fans had thinking of Barry Alvarez coming to town. Bielema had a fantastic inaugural season in 2006, where his 12-1 Badgers seemed like they were on the verge of being worldbeaters. After that, things seemed to get ugly for Buckeyes watching the Badgers from afar. Weak scheduling, bizarre results against the likes of Cal Poly and an offense more conventional and uninspiring than our own seemed to characterize Wisconsin. I'm expecting 2009 to be more of the same for the Badgers. They'll benefit from a light schedule (for the most part) and having some important foes at home, but will seem to have as many new faces on defense as the Buckeyes will have. Both have that same problem, but I give the advantage to the Buckeyes for bringing in higher-caliber recruits than Wisconsin has. A dynamic quarterback like Pryor should give fits for the Badgers in front a raucous home crowd sympathetic to the Buckeyes. Long story short: I don't expect the Badgers to have the horses to hang in for a full race with the Buckeyes.

Naturally, I don't want to be proven wrong.

If you're a Badger fan, I wouldn't walk in with a bravado that you could've easily strolled into Columbus with in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Alvarez undeniably had Tressel's number. Still, there are important question marks at important spots on the Buckeye team that allows for restrained optimism. Enjoy the game and your time in Columbus if you make the trip, and please bring the band with you. It's just not Wisconsin football without the band.

* As a rule I don't refer to OSU as tOSU or the Ohio State University, but I figured since OHD threw me a bone here, I'd throw them one back. Thanks, Vico!

Spring in the Midwest: A look around the Big Ten Football Blogosphere

Michigan (MGoBlog): thin defense, true-freshman quarterback. Hoping for decent improvement, not much more. http://www.mgoblog.com/content/spring-practice-tea-leaves

Penn State (Black Shoe Diaries): Defense looking nasty (shocking, right?); concern about the wide receivers and the backup quarterback. http://www.blackshoediaries.com/2009/4/5/823475/nitt-picks-is-running-like-hell

Ohio State (Buckeye Commentary and Our Honor Defend): Defense lacking stars, but under Tressel will be solid; Pryor needs to develop his passing game, needs the line to provide extra protection. http://buckeyecommentary.com/; http://www.ourhonordefend.com/2009/04/observations-from-sundays-practice.php

Iowa (Black Heart, Gold Pants): Ferentz's kid got arrested for drinking. Is there anything else?[Ed. note: Whatever, I'm sure they'll be no worse than 10-2, right?]

Michigan State (Ground Zero East Lansing, Spartans Weblog): What is this "football" you speak of? http://groundzeroeastlansing.blogspot.com/; http://www.spartansweblog.com/

Northwestern (Lake the Posts): Kafka looks good at QB. Who will surround him is an open question. http://www.laketheposts.com/2009/04/eyes-wide-open.html

Illinois (Hail to the Orange): with Juice back for his hudredth year, Benn and some other speedy guys, let's throw deep. Every down. Nothing on the defense, which may be appropriate. http://www.hailtotheorange.com/2009/3/30/814407/run-fast-catch-ball-win-il

Indiana (Crimson Quarry): This is a basketball school; someone else can talk about football (like our friends at Rivals, Esq). http://www.crimsonquarry.com/2009/3/30/815836/2009-indiana-football-spri

Minnesota (GoperHole): New coaches (Bad-ger Re-jects clap, clap, clap clap clap -- insert smiley here), new system; defense is in good shape if they can get a pass-rusher to replace VandeSteeg, wondering who will step up to help out Decker on the offense. http://www.gopherhole.com/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=973

Purdue (Boiled Sports, Hammer & Rails): quarterback dismissed for cheating, and PS we're a basketball school, too . . . at least for now. http://www.boiledsports.com/2009/04/justin-siller-we-hardly-knew-ye.html, http://www.hammerandrails.com/

Heck, while I'm at it, our other 2009 opponents:

Fresno State (Bulldog Bounce): We're a baseball school. But it fully sucks that their defensive coordinator passed away last month, only 50 years old. Also, the offense will look different than it did last year (personnel wise), and they aren't likely to be ranked when we play them. http://www.BulldogBounce.blogspot.com/

Northern Illinois (Red and Black Attack): I'm not sure what it means, but it looks like NIU will be more comfortable running than passing. http://www.redandblackattack.com/

Hawaii (uhfootball): they're fast, which is good because they run and they shoot. And they need to replace some guys on their offense. http://uhfootball.blogspot.com/

Wofford (shocking: I can't find a current blog, but they've had one at wordpress): last year they were a pretty solid FCS team. http://disembedded.wordpress.com/2008/10/12/tiny-wofford-college-smashes-the-university-of-tennessee-chattanooga-56-7/; also this: They have two starting quarterbacks . . . seriously. http://goupstate.us/index.php/2009/03/25/wofford-football-depth-chart-after-sprin?blog=16