Both teams will pass well against soft opposing defenses, but neither will make it through the entire game without mistakes in the passing games (drops, misses, INTs). The team that wins is the team that establishes the run and is able to control possession in the 4th quarter.
MSU has the better linebackers, but I think the Badgers have a better defensive line. Moreover, the Badgers offensive line is, I think, a better run-blocking line (though retarded in progress due to injuries). Finally, I'm confident the Badgers have the better tailbacks.
Slight edge to the Badgers.
BUT . . .
It could be wet tomorrow. Turnovers?
While the Badgers have the better +/- (+2 vs. even), we have also put the ball on the carpet much more than MSU (it's just that we've caused more turnovers, too). In a wet game ball security could be the determinative factor. That worries me. A lot.
PS. For those curious about my tepid enthusiasm for the Badgers on this one, look no further than Scott Tappa's write up this morning: http://badgercentric.blogspot.com/2009/09/2008-revisited-game-4-and-michigan.html